R2P Case Study: SyriaSae Okubo

Aline SekiguchiSatoko Takahara

Background

General timeline of the conflict

UN Resolutions and actions taken by the

international community

R2P Criteria

Syria Now

Overview of the Presentation

President Bashar al-Assad

Son of Hafez al-Assad

Took over presidency

in June of 2000

Belongs to the

minority Alawite sect

of the population

en.wikipedia.org

Division within the Syrian population:

◦ 65% Sunni Arabs

◦ 12% Alawis(Alawite)

◦ 10% Christians

◦ 9% Kurds

Issue of having a secular government

Complicated nature of the war

http://eastchapelhillobserver.com

March: The protests begin May: Government’s military crackdown by the

army ➝ Shabiha July: Free Syrian Army (FSA) formed by this

point

◦ Government focuses on protests in Hama

August: Western leaders explicitly call for Assad to step down

November: the Arab League suspends Syria’s membership

General Timeline from Spring 2011

April: UN brokers ceasefire, sends monitors

June: UN suspends its mission in Syria

August: UN accuses the Syrian government of

war crimes

September: Rebels accused of crimes against

humanity

December: The US also formally recognizes

Syria’s opposition National Coalition as the

legitimate representative of the Syrian people

General Timeline (2012)

January: 65 bodies found in

Aleppo, shot execution style

April: Syria accused of using

chemical weapons

May: EU lifts the arms

embargo

June: US officials announce

that Assad used chemical

weapons

General Timeline (2013)

www.un.org

August: Syrian government accused of using chemical weapons◦ UN inspectors go to Damascus

◦ Obama considers a limited military strike against

Syria September

◦ Russia proposes for Syria to give up its chemical

arms

◦ UN finds ‘convincing evidence’ of chemical attack

General Timeline (2013 cont.)

The international community has had a

difficult time deciding what actions to take

because of the complexity of the situation

➝ Al-Qaeda linked groups aligning with

the opposition etc.

Possibility of ethnic cleansing after the war

Escalating sectarian violence

Recap

UN Resolutions and actions taken by the International Community

1st phase: Criticism and Economic sanction

2011. 4~U.S. & EU → asset freeze & prohibition on entry further pressure by EU ← & Turkey & LAS BAN on oil embargo & trading halts

Resulted in afflicting local people rather than exhausting the regime

1st draft resolution condemning Syria was rejected by the veto of Russia and China

International Response

2nd phase: League of Arab States (LAS) Response

2011. 11 decided to suspend Syria and impose sanctions

2011. 12 Syria agreed to LAS initiative to allow observers

2012. 1 LAS suspended its mission due to worsening

violence in Syria

International Response

3rd phase: UN Security Council Resolutions

2012. 2 draft resolution urged Syria to accept non-binding peace plan

→fell short of formal resolution 2012. 4 #2042, #2043　→Deployment of 30 military observers to Syria →Deployment of UNSMIS (300 civil observers)

International Response

2012. 6 Geneva 1 laid out a peace plan for Syria together with LAS and UN members →called for a Syrian-led political transition

2012. 7 #2059　→ extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days

2012. 8 →UN General assembly demanded Assad resign

Obama warned use of chemical weapons is the ‘redline’

International Response

2012. 12 Syria's opposition National Coalition was recognized as the legitimate representative of Syrian people

2013. 8 UN weapons inspectors concluded the use of chemical weapons in August but did not allocate the responsibility of the attack 2013. 9 #2118 →Required scheduled destruction of Syria’s

chemical weapons

International Response

R2P Criteria March 2011 to September 2013

There was no real intervention.

Is it a real Responsibility to Protect situation?

Irwin Cotler (Canadian Deputy and Human Rights supporter) :

“if mass atrocities in Syria are not a case for R2P, there is no R2P”

A few things to consider

The international community (United Nations) and Regional organizations (Arab League) are taking care of it.

More chance for the intention to be humanitarian.

The international community has not violated any resolutions SO FAR.

Right Authority 5/5

Intervention in Syria is clearly a necessity.

Crimes against humanity. Ethnic cleansing.Violence against civilians.

Perfect violation of Human Rights　 from　both sides.

Just Cause 5/5

Hypothetical Criteria

Various international actors involved.

Reaction should have been quicker.

Public against it.

Right Intention 2.5/5

One side : International Community.

Other side: a country which has hidden chemical weapons. Difficult to determine its military capacity.

If an intervention is decided Not enough means?

Proportional Means 2.5/5

Influence of past interventions (Iraq).

Not enough means to be able to intervene efficiently.

Lack of motivation.

Reasonable Prospects 1/5

Still trying to solve the problem without the use of force.

Inefficient sanctions.

Intervention necessary?

Last Resort 2.5/5

Public not feeling concerned.

Nations not willing to help.

Influence of former failures.

Russia and China’s continued vetoes.

Actual problems

Syria Now

120,000 deaths since the beginning of the war (according to the Syria Observatory for Human Rights). More than a third of them are civilians.

9 million refugees.

The United Nation Security Council has started to focus on the humanitarian crisis.

Syria Now

November 25th, 2013: UN Secretary General announced a Peace Conference to solve Syria’s situation on January 22nd, 2014.

Postponed by Russia to July 2014.

The Secretary General expects the participants to come to Geneva to end the conflict via Political Solutions.

Geneva 2

Bashar al-Assad will not participate.

Sees this conference only as a fight against terrorism.

Opposition’s Position

Expects this conference to lead to the demission of Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian Government’s Opinion

Iran, an ally of the Syrian government, may participate too.

Saudi Arabia, an ally of the opposition, may participate too.

Salim Idriss (General of the Free Syrian Army ) announced that he will not stop the fighting for this conference.

His main concern is to provide equipment for his soldiers.

Other participants

Destruction of 1000 tons of chemical weapons in the sea announced on September 30th, 2013

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed that the Syrian government submitted the initial formal declaration of its chemical weapons program on October 24th .

Permitted the establishment of a destruction plan of the weapons and the installations of production and assembly.

Chemical Weapons

The UN’s Human Rights chief announced that Syrian War crimes implicating Bashar al-Assad were found.

According to an article published in early December 2013, it was the first time that the Syrian dictator was directly accused of committing these crimes.

Bashar al-Assad implicated in war crimes

http://icrtopblog.org/2011/10/07/un-security-council-fails-to-uphold-its-responsibility-to-protect-in-syria/

http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-syria

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24628442

http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2013/11/26/la-conference-geneve-2-se-fera-sans-bachar-al-assad_3520605_3218.html

Sources

http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2013/06/05/syrie-la-conference-de-geneve-2-officiellement-repoussee_3424678_3218.html

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/03/jonathan-kay-r2p-is-no-basis-for-bombing-syria/

http://nsnbc.me/2013/10/06/new-push-syria-intervention-responsibility-protect/

http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/handle/123456789/32656

http://syriahr.com/en/index.php?option=com_news&Itemid=2&nt=1

Sources

http://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/syrie-al-qaida-expulse-les-rebelles-d-une-ville-strategique-1148929-2013-09-20

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995

http://www.news.com.au/world/simple-points-to-help-you-understand-the-syria-conflict/story-fndir2ev-1226705155146

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/08/31/3598729/understanding-the-roots-of-the.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/middleeast/syria.html?_r=0

Sources

http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers_and_reports/stolen_futures

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/timeline-unrest-in-syria/207/

Sources

Thank you for listening!