Safety / Performance CriteriaSafety / Performance CriteriaAgreeing on AssumptionsAgreeing on Assumptions

Safety / Performance CriteriaSafety / Performance CriteriaAgreeing on AssumptionsAgreeing on Assumptions

11BEIJING, CHINA; 30 JUN-11 JUL 2014

ObjectiveObjectiveObjectiveObjective

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This module provides an overview of This module provides an overview of Performance and Safety Criteria as well as Performance and Safety Criteria as well as

Project AssumptionsProject Assumptions

Why?Why?Why?Why?

Why set performance criteriaWhy set performance criteria

✈ MeasurementMeasurement

✈ Determine successDetermine success

✈ Evaluate safetyEvaluate safety

Why set performance criteriaWhy set performance criteria

✈ MeasurementMeasurement

✈ Determine successDetermine success

✈ Evaluate safetyEvaluate safety

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AssessmentAssessmentAssessmentAssessment

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Qualitative AssessmentQualitative Assessment

Expert judgement used to assess the design based on Expert judgement used to assess the design based on ICAO SARPs (ICAO SARPs (Standards and Recommended PracticesStandards and Recommended Practices) and Procedures) and Procedures

Quantitative AssessmentQuantitative Assessment

Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data e.g. capacity increased by 20%e.g. capacity increased by 20%

Qualitative AssessmentQualitative Assessment

Expert judgement used to assess the design based on Expert judgement used to assess the design based on ICAO SARPs (ICAO SARPs (Standards and Recommended PracticesStandards and Recommended Practices) and Procedures) and Procedures

Quantitative AssessmentQuantitative Assessment

Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data e.g. capacity increased by 20%e.g. capacity increased by 20%

Both Qualitative and Quantitative assessment Both Qualitative and Quantitative assessment

are are crucialcrucial to safety and performance assessment to safety and performance assessment

References: References:

✈ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, Safety Management Manual (SMM)Safety Management Manual (SMM)

✈ICAO Doc 9689, ICAO Doc 9689, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation MinimaSeparation Minima

✈ICAO Circular 319-AN/181ICAO Circular 319-AN/181, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in , A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689)Separation Minima (Doc 9689)

✈ICAO Doc 9613, ICAO Doc 9613, Performance-Based Navigation ManualPerformance-Based Navigation Manual

✈ICAO Doc 8168, ICAO Doc 8168, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight ProceduresProcedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight Procedures

✈ICAO Doc 9905, ICAO Doc 9905, RNP AR Procedure Design ManualRNP AR Procedure Design Manual

✈ICAO Doc 4444, ICAO Doc 4444, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.

References: References:

✈ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, Safety Management Manual (SMM)Safety Management Manual (SMM)

✈ICAO Doc 9689, ICAO Doc 9689, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation MinimaSeparation Minima

✈ICAO Circular 319-AN/181ICAO Circular 319-AN/181, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in , A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689)Separation Minima (Doc 9689)

✈ICAO Doc 9613, ICAO Doc 9613, Performance-Based Navigation ManualPerformance-Based Navigation Manual

✈ICAO Doc 8168, ICAO Doc 8168, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight ProceduresProcedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight Procedures

✈ICAO Doc 9905, ICAO Doc 9905, RNP AR Procedure Design ManualRNP AR Procedure Design Manual

✈ICAO Doc 4444, ICAO Doc 4444, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.

Evaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating Safety

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SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

66Ref: ICAO 9859, 2.2

SAFETY THEORYSAFETY THEORY

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Organizational& Structural

Pressure

Various defences are built into the aviation system to protect againstfluctuations in human performance or decisions at all levels of the system.

defensive layers

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

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Traditional Approach: • Data collection and analysis efforts are limited to

data collected through investigation of accidents and serious incidents.

New Approach: • Adds routine collection and analysis of data using

proactive as well as reactive methodologies to monitor known safety risks and detect emerging safety issues. These enhancements formulated the rationale for moving towards a safety management approach.

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

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• A SMS is a system to assure the safe operation of aircraft through effective management of safety risk.

• This system is designed to continuously improve safety by identifying hazards, collecting and analysing data and continuously assessing safety risks.

• The SMS seeks to proactively contain or mitigate risks before they result in aviation accidents and incidents.

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1

1010

A SMS is not static but is designed for continuous improvement.

a) Develop forms for internal evaluations.b) Define an internal audit process.c) Define an external audit process.d) Define a schedule for evaluation of facilities, equipment, documentation and procedures to be completed through audits and surveys.e) Develop documentation relevant to operational safety assurance.

Ref: ICAO 9859

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

1111

The four components of a SMS are:

• a) safety policy and objectives;

• b) safety risk management;

• c) safety assurance; and

• d) safety promotion

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.3

1212

Safety Risk ManagementSafety Risk Management

Ref: ICAO 9859

Safety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety Management

1313

Identify Hazards

Evaluate Hazards

Safety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety Management

1414

Mitigate vs Eliminate Hazards

Ref: ICAO 9859

Evaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating Safety

1515

Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment

1616Ref: ICAO 9859

Risk ManagementRisk ManagementRisk ManagementRisk Management

1717Ref: ICAO 9859

ASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONS

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AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions

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Columbus challenged the Spanish courtiers to stand an egg on its end. They tried but failed. He then hard-boiled one and squashed it down.

“That’s not fair,” they protested, “you broke the rules.” “Don’t be silly,” he replied, “you just assumed more than you needed to.”

What unnecessary assumptions can you eliminate?

Columbus challenged the Spanish courtiers to stand an egg on its end. They tried but failed. He then hard-boiled one and squashed it down.

“That’s not fair,” they protested, “you broke the rules.” “Don’t be silly,” he replied, “you just assumed more than you needed to.”

What unnecessary assumptions can you eliminate?

AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions

"B" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"A" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"C" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"B" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"A" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"C" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

2020

AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions

H

67%15%

15% 3%A

A

A

D

D

D

D

G

35% 35%

30% 25%

25%

25%25% H

67%15%

15% 3%A

A

A

D

D

D

D

G

35% 35%

30% 25%

25%

25%25%

2121

AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions*Traffic Distribution (Time/Geography)* EUR ARN & Adjacent TMA traffic* IFR/VFR/Military Mix* Aircraft Performance Mix* Helicopters/STOL

* % Use of each RWY* Landings Aids & Use* RWY orientation choice?

* LVP days per year (Greenfield sites)

* Thunderstorm activity* Snow days per year

* Data* Voice

* Radar type* Maintenance down times* Backup

* Conventional Nav* P-RNAV* Other

* Sector definition* Filters* Colour codes

TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS

RUNWAY IN USEPrimary/Secondary

ATM/CNSASSUMPTIONS( )Current/Future

COMMUNICATIONSASSUMPTIONS

MET.ASSUMPTIONS

ATC SYSTEMASSUMPTIONS

NAVIGATIONASSUMPTIONS

SURVEILLANCEASSUMPTIONS

*Traffic Distribution (Time/Geography)* EUR ARN & Adjacent TMA traffic* IFR/VFR/Military Mix* Aircraft Performance Mix* Helicopters/STOL

* % Use of each RWY* Landings Aids & Use* RWY orientation choice?

* LVP days per year (Greenfield sites)

* Thunderstorm activity* Snow days per year

* Data* Voice

* Radar type* Maintenance down times* Backup

* Conventional Nav* P-RNAV* Other

* Sector definition* Filters* Colour codes

TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS

RUNWAY IN USEPrimary/Secondary

ATM/CNSASSUMPTIONS( )Current/Future

COMMUNICATIONSASSUMPTIONS

MET.ASSUMPTIONS

ATC SYSTEMASSUMPTIONS

NAVIGATIONASSUMPTIONS

SURVEILLANCEASSUMPTIONS

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PBNPBN

A few examples ….A few examples ….A few examples ….A few examples ….

✈ Changing a radar Changing a radar

✈Blocked military airspace – that wasnBlocked military airspace – that wasn’’tt

✈ Changing planned runway orientationChanging planned runway orientation

✈ Change to the number of runways availableChange to the number of runways available

✈ Changing a radar Changing a radar

✈Blocked military airspace – that wasnBlocked military airspace – that wasn’’tt

✈ Changing planned runway orientationChanging planned runway orientation

✈ Change to the number of runways availableChange to the number of runways available

2323

Questions???Questions???Questions???Questions???

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