safety system & scene. overview safety terms hazards hazard lists worst case conditions hazard...
TRANSCRIPT
Overview
• Safety Terms
• Hazards
• Hazard Lists
• Worst Case Conditions
• Hazard Characteristics
• Analysis
• Sumary
Safety Terms
• Hazard: Condition with potential to injure
• Danger: Exposure to hazard
• Damage: Severity of injury
• Risk: Probability of occurrence times damage (RHI)
Hazard
• Types:– Primary Hazard: Immediate damaging causing– Initiating Hazard: Starts event sequence leading
to damage ( rope abrasion leading to reduced tensile strength and ultimate failure)
– Contributing Hazard: Subordinate hazard adding to the ultimate failure of a system ( inadequate Belay System rigging, fails in Main failure)
Hazard Lists
• Hazard lists are the first step in recognizing hazards and preventing damage
• Development: (best lists use combination)– Past experience– Theoretical possibility ( What can you
imagine)– Predictive testing ( rope testing… load,
abrasion, UV etc)
Safety & Murphy’s Law*
• Worst case scenario – Max loads– Most serious outcomes– Combined events ( UV, Abrasion, Overloads)– Ignores probability of occurance
• *“If something can go wrong it will”– “It will go wrong at the worst possible time”
Categories of Hazards
• Inherent Hazard: Properties or characteristics of system make it hazardous (High angle rope systems, working hi-voltage)
• Failures (material or human): Rope fails under load ( material defect), knot lets go ( tied incorrectly)
• Environmental stresses: Lightning strike, Wind shear, UV degredation, “Acts of God”
Accidents
• Failure to prevent damage– Almost all accidents can be traced to human
error (although not necessarily the primary hazard event).
– May not be on the part of the immediate victims ( may be dissociated in time and space from accident event, for example: poor rope maintenance/inspection)
Human Error
• 2 types ( also like hazards may be primary or contributory)– Predictable: “could have been expected”
usually driven by:• Fatigue
• Sensory limitations ( poor visibility etc)
• Physical limitations ( coordination etc)
– Random: “unpredictable” unexpected or unusual sequence of events, no history of similar occurrences, driven by a rare or unique event
Minimizing Human Error
• 2 Man Concept– Credited to the Military to minimize potential
for human error in nuclear system procedures– Probably goes back to the first attempts at
controlling risky processes.
• Training ( most human error occurs under stress and haste, training minimizes error under stress
Accidents and Human Error
• Accidents rarely occur due to willful actions
• Most are situations in which human capabilities are inadequate or overwhelmed by the “Need for rapid response to a critical situation”– Inadequacies can be permanent or transient
• Permanent: Physical limitations, lack of training
• Transient: Fatigue, communications breakdown
Hazards and Accidents
• Accidents occur when”
Hazards potential to cause damage reaches a probability of 1
• This leads to 2 obvious approaches to safety:– Minimize hazards– Reduce probability
Accident Analysis Vs. Hazard Analysis
• Accident Analysis is Post Mortum
• Hazard Analysis is predictive in nature
• Hazard Analyses are conducted on systems
• A system is all the components which combine to perform a function…. Rope, anchors, prussics, people!
Safety Factors & Margins
• Safety Factors are a ratio of strength to expected stress
• Safety Margins are the difference between max stress and min strength
Hazard Analyses
• Qualitative- non-mathmatical– A review of potential hazards, excluding
probabilities
• Quantitative- must be preceded by qualitative review– Probability of occurrence of a specific failure
mode, based on history or speculation.
Hazard Analysis
• Requires review of:– Mission requirements– Performance capabilities– Operational sequence– Environmental impacts– Codes, regulations, specifications, standards
Probability• Probability is the expectancy of frequency with
which an event will occur in a specific number of trials
• Determined by– Actuarial methods ( using historical data)
– Experimental methods (test and count failures)
– Predictive models ( usually based on similarity to known systems )
• Heads/Tails 100K trials 50K heads.. Next flip 50/50.. Individual event is could be any outcome
Failure Modes, Effects, & Capability Analyses- FMECA
• Review of component failure modes– Fails How?
• Effects of such failure will have on the rest of the system
• Establish which part failures would have critical (catastrophic) impacts on the system
• Calculate the probability of such failures
RHI- Relative Hazard Index
• RHI- probability of event occurrence times expected damage if event occurs
• A quick way to prioritize safety issues
Risk
• Risk is a method of comparing relative hazard exposures
• RHI is a risk measure
• Hazard analyses which include both qualitative hazards and quantitative probability of hazard damage can also be used to rank or compare risks