An integrated framework for climate vulnerability, natural hazards & risks assessment at the local scale -

and its potential for regional upscalingN. Salzmann (1); S. Allen (2,7); K. Awasthi (3); A. Gupta (4); C. Huggel (2); M. Ali Khan (3);

A. Linsbauer (1,2); N. Mendiratta (4); M. Rohrer (5); M. Stoffel (6); J. Kuriger (7) (1) University of Fribourg, Department of Geosciences, Switzerland; (2) University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Switzerland; (3) Indian Himalayas Climate Change Adaptation Programme, New Delhi, India;

(4) Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India; (5) Meteodat GmbH, Zürich, Switzerland; 6) University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, Switzerland; (7) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, New Delhi, India

contact: nadine.salzmann@unifr.ch

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)

The Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, being implemented in partner-ship with Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India is actively supporting these efforts through scientific and technical knowledge co-operation between Swiss and Indian scientific institutions. A first step includes the development and implementation of an integrated and comprehensive framework for climate vulnerability and natural hazard and risk assessment in a pilot region of the IHR. Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, India, has been identi-fied as climate hotspot and as such represents an ideal pilot region.

IHCAP Indian HimalayasClimate AdaptationProgramme

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) as many other (mountain) regions world-wide, is facing important challenges in view of coping with adverse effects of cli-matic changes. In order to address adaptation needs and to reduce the vulner-ability of the communities living in potentially affected regions, the Indian Gov-ernment under its National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) is targeting an integrated vulnerability and risk & hazards assessment encompassing the 12 Indian Himalayan States. The assessment will serve as an important basis for prioritizing, planning and implementing adaptation mea-sures at State/ sub-national level.

mental) for all studies conducted within the frame-work. With regard to the time window, the baseline refers ideally to a relevant time horizon of their live-lihood and must span a climatological period of preferably 30 years (WMO standard). For Kullu, the time window 1981-2010 was chosen.

All studies conducted in Kullu are technically upscalable, however, it is key to derive subse-quent adapation measure within the respective socio-economic context.

example: VULNERABILITY assessment

Variable Components represented

Population density Exposure, sensitivity, capacity to recover

Female population Sensitivity, capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Population <6 years of age Sensitivity, capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Literacy rate Capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Unemployment Capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Employment in farming Sensitivity, capacity to recover

Disabled population Sensitivity, capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Home renters Capacity to recover

Derelict houses Sensitivity, capacity to respond and recover

Water availability Capacity to prepare and respond

Medical facilities Capacity to prepare and respond

Education facilities Capacity to prepare, respond and recover

Banking services Capacity to prepare and recover

Access to radio and TV Capacity to prepare and respond

Access to internet Capacity to prepare and respond

Access to phone Capacity to prepare and respond

To establishing the underlying vulnerability component, we used census India data to quantify 20 variables that represent proxy indicators for the socio-economic components of vulnerability. For each variable, the states/districts are ranked and the combined sum of ranking values across all variables gives an overall social vulnerability ranking.

example: EXPOSURE assessment

Exposure can be assessed based on an inventory of elements located within an area in which hazards or adverse effects of climate change may be expected to occur. Here, we show GLOF hazard (left) based on probability of lake outburst (lake impact predisposition area) and magnitude of the potential GLOFs (total affected area), and population density (right) provides a simple mea-sure of exposure.

The framework for Kullu is based on the latest con-cept of vulnerability, hazards and disaster risks from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; AR5, SREX). Specific joint Indo-Swiss col-laborative studies are in progress in Kullu covering thematic themes such as climate, cryosphere, floods, agriculture, perception, tourism, forestry and biodiversity. Fundamental for integrated vulnerability assessments is a common baseline and thus par-ticular care was addressed to the definition andagreement for a common time window and homog-enous datasets (climate, socio-economic, environ-

Background and Motivation

example: HAZARD assessment

In glacierized high-mountain regions, the retreat and vanishing of glaciers can result in the formation of glacier lakes. These lakes have the potential for outburst floods (GLOFs - Glacier Lake Outburst Floods) and as such pose a potential hazard for people and villages/infrastructure downvalley.For Kullu, the location, volume and changes of currrent and potential future lakes have been identified, modelled and mapped based on satel-lite data and DTMs for Kullu and been verfied with existing glaicer lake in-ventories

INTEGRATED RISK assessment

A common goal across all risk and vulnerability assessments is to provide information about spatial profiles, patterns and changes, in order to define priorities and formulate management strategies. Risk assessment and risk maps are thus a key component of science based climate changeadaptation, providing the basis for risk reduction measures such as land-use planning, early warning systems, preparedness and awareness-building activities.Here, we show Hazards &risks for current and potentialfuture GLOF paths aroundManali.

Linsbauer et al. 2015