sampling – basic concepts · sampling – basic concepts last updated october 5, 2016 g. bacaro...

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Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro Design and Analysis of Environmental Monitoring and Experiments Master Degree in Global Change Ecology I Year, I term

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Page 1: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling – Basic Concepts

Last updated October 5, 2016

G. BacaroDesign and Analysis of Environmental Monitoring and ExperimentsMaster Degree in Global Change EcologyI Year, I term

Page 2: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Inference, Sampling and Confidence

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 3: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

InferenceSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 4: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

InferenceSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 5: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Representative SamplingSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 6: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Obtain a Representative SamplingSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 7: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Obtain a Representative SamplingSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 8: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Random vs. HaphazardSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 9: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Statistics and ParametersSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 10: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Statistics and ParametersSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 11: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Statistics and ParametersSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 12: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Why is S2 a biased estimate of σ2

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 13: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling DistributionsSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 14: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Central Limit TheoremSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

As the sample size increases, the sampling distribution of the mean, X-bar, can be approximated by a normal distribution with

mean µ

and standard deviation

σ/√n

where:

µ is the population mean

σ is the population standard deviation

n is the sample size

In other words, if we repeatedly take independent random samples of size n from any population, then when n is large, the distribution of the sample means will approach a normal distribution.

Page 15: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Accuracy

What is accuracy?

The degree to which a measurement, or an estimate based on measurements, represents the true value of the attribute that is being measured.

Last. A Dictionary of Epidemiology. 1988

In short, obtaining results close to the TRUTH.

Associated terms:● Validity

Page 16: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Precision

What is precision?

Precision in epidemiologic measurementscorresponds to the reduction of random error.

Rothman. Modern Epidemiology. 1986.

● In short, obtaining similar results with repeated measurement

Associated terms:● Reliability● Reproducibility

Page 17: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Accuracy vs. Precision

Accuracy: obtaining results close to truth

Survey 1

Survey 2

Survey 3

Real population value

Page 18: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Accuracy vs. Precision

● Precision: obtaining similar results with repeated

measurement (may or may not be accurate)

Page 19: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Accuracy vs. precision

Poor precision (from small sample size) with reasonable accuracy (without bias):

Page 20: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Accuracy vs. precision

Good precision (from small sample size) with reasonable accuracy (without bias):

Page 21: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Accuracy vs. precision

Good precision (from large sample size), but with poor accuracy (with bias):

Page 22: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Confidence Interval and Standar ErrorsSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 23: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

ConfidenceSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 24: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Standard Error of the meanSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 25: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

EstimationSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 26: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

How much confidence is enough?Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 27: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Standard Score

Page 28: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

How much confidence is enough?Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 29: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Precision and Accuracy RevisedSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 30: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Sample SizeSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 31: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Index of PrecisionSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 32: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Index of Relative PrecisionSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 33: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Calculate Relative Precision – Example-Sampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 34: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Estimating Desired Sampling Size -pilot dataSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology

Page 35: Sampling – Basic Concepts · Sampling – Basic Concepts Last updated October 5, 2016 G. Bacaro ... Statistics and Parameters Sampling Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring

Estimating Desired Sampling Size -exampleSampling

Design and Analysis of environmental monitoring (DAEME)MD in Global Changes Ecology