san bernardino county mountain region population growth monitoring & road capacity study...
TRANSCRIPT
San Bernardino County Mountain Region Population Growth Monitoring & Road Capacity Study
Presented to
2012 ITE Western District Annual Meeting, Santa Barbara, CAJune 25th, 2012
Paper by:
Noel Casil, PE (Presenter)Neelam Sharma, TE
Overview of Project Study Area
Lytle Creek
Bear ValleyCrest
Forest
Lake Arrowhead
Hilltop
Oak Glen
Wrightwood
San Bernardino County Mountain Region
URS Project Team
Purpose and Need
A need to implement certain SB County 2007 GP goals relative to the evacuation of the Mountain Communities during emergencies.
Help the County determine appropriate densities for the development of the Mountain Planning Region given the limitations for emergency evacuation.
Study, analyze and provide recommendations for 7 issue areas.
Components of the Study
Current and Projected
Population
Transportation and
Circulation System
Mountain Area Safety
Taskforce (MAST)
Evacuation Routes
Traffic Assessment
Population Report
Conclusions/
Recommendations
Input Data
• Maps
• Survey
• Counts
• Planning Data
Study Results
• Land Use Summary
• Emergency Evacuation
Traffic Data
• Facility Review
• Capacities
Population Data
• Existing
• Projected
Traffic Analysis
• Speed
• Time
• Tiering
Mountain Region
• Future growth
• Densities
• Consistency w/ Plan
Recent History of the Mountain Region
Grand Prix Fire, 2003 Old Fire, 2003
Key Transportation Facilities
Traffic Assessment Challenge
Extensive Study Area
3 Analysis Scenarios
7 Unique Communities
Meet Project Schedule and Allocated CostNot reliant on
esoteric Modeling packages
Meet client’s expectations
A Simple Approach
Step 1 - Define Evacuation Routes and Properties
Step 1Step 2
Step 2 - Gather and Translate Population Data
Step 3
Step 3 – Baseline Conditions (LOS from Florida Tables)
Step 4
Step 4 – Evacuation Analysis (Speed from HCS)
Step 5
Step 5 – Evacuation Tiers used to minimize gridlock
Key Analysis Assumptions
Reasonable segment travel time for baseline was based on distance and posted speed limit relationship
HCS was used to determine analysis scenario speed using vehicle demand
“Tiering” of evacuating vehicles was developed to attain progression through the emergency routes
Sample Results: Hilltop 2030Hilltop
Evac Route
Distance (mls)1
Evac Route Travel Time
(mins)2
SR330 SR18
Evacuation Routes Segment Evac
VehiclesEvac Speed (mph)
Evac Time
(mins)Evac
VehiclesEvac
Speed (mph)
Evac Time
(mins)
SR330 SR18 to Highland 14.3 16 3,096 19.6 44 0 - -
SR18
SR138 to 49th Street 2.1 3 0 - - 3,096 - -*
SR138 to SR189 2.94 4 0 - - 3,096 9.5 19
SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.7 4 0 - - 3,096 9.6 17
Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.3 2 0 - - 3,096 9.9 8
SR173 to Kuffle 1.1 1 0 - - 3,096 10 7
Kuffle to SR330 5.8 6 1,393 38.6 9 3,096 19.3 18
SR330 to Green Valley 2.9 4 619 32.2 5 619 32.2 5
Green Valley to SR38 9.85 15 0 - - 0 - -
Green Valley Lake Road North of SR18 4.5 11 619 19.8 14 619 19.8 14
Live Oak Drive SR18 to SR330 1.6 4 310 23.4 4 310 23.4 4
Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 72 minutes *
* HCS could not output results due the heavy demand. Therefore, total travel time can not be listed.
Sample Results: Hilltop “Tiers”Hilltop
Evac Route
Distance (mls)1
Evac Route Travel Time
(mins)2
SR330 SR18
Evacuation Routes Segment Evac
VehiclesEvac Speed (mph)
Evac Time
(mins)Evac
VehiclesEvac
Speed (mph)
Evac Time
(mins)
SR330 SR18 to Highland 14.3 16 2700 25 34 0 - -
SR18
SR138 to 49th Street 2.1 3 0 - - 1649 53.2 2
SR138 to SR189 2.94 4 0 - - 1649 25 7
SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.7 4 0 - - 1649 25 6
Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.3 2 0 - - 1649 25 3
SR173 to Kuffle 1.1 1 0 - - 1649 25 3
Kuffle to SR330 5.8 6 1215 41.5 8 1649 35 10
SR330 to Green Valley 2.9 4 540 26.2 7 330 40 4
Green Valley to SR38 9.85 15 0 - - 0 - -
Green Valley Lake Road North of SR18 4.5 11 540 25 11 330 25 11
Live Oak Drive SR18 to SR330 1.6 4 270 25 4 165 25 4
Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 60 minutes ~ 46 minutes
For both SR330 and SR18, two tiers would be required to evacuate the Projected 2030 Population. Total time required would be approximately two hours.
Specific Evacuation plans would be determined by the Emergency Response Teams.
Take aways from the study
The high quality of life in the Mountain Region should not be degraded by growth
Given reasonable amount of time orderly evacuation can be accomplished
Each potential emergency is unique and key field decisions and tactics is to be decided by the Incident Commander
Thank You for Your time