1. Wind Overview2014 Sandias Wind Turbine Blade WorkshopAugust 26, 20141Jose Zayas, DirectorDOEs Wind and Water Power TechnologiesOffice

2. Wind Power IndustryState of the Industry, U.S.7Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean EnergyTechnologies. DOE. September 2014 (in press)References:1,5 DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Monthly.2 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Office of Energy Projects, Energy Infrastructure Update For December 20133,4,6 American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) database and annual market report7 Memorandum - Documentation of a Historical LCOE Curve for Wind in Good to Excellent Wind Resource Sites. Mark Bolingerand Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). June 11, 2012. UPDATED February 10th, 2014.Key Facts 4.3% of U.S. 2013 powergeneration1 42% of all 2012 U.S. powercapacity additions, thehighest of any resource 2 Wind capacity more thandoubled from 2008-2012(average of 8.7 GW/year) 3 57 GW wind capacity addedfrom 2002 to 2013 4 10 states with > 10% windgeneration in 2013: Colorado,Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine,Minnesota, North Dakota,Oklahoma, Oregon, andSouth Dakota 5 Two states with >25%wind generation: Iowa(28.6%) and South Dakota(26.0%) Over 50,000 U.S. jobs ininstallation, manufacturingand operations 62 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 3. Wind Energy Technologies OfficeSupports National Clean Energy GoalsU.S. wind deployment has exceeded DOEs 20% by 2030 scenario, but lackof long-term policy stability may impact future wind deployment3 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 4. Wind Power IndustryU.S. Pricing Competitiveness TrendsSource: Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryWind Energy PPA Prices Relative to Wholesale Electricity PricesCurrent U.S. wind market prices are achieving historical low levels4 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 5. Wind Power IndustryDeployment TrendsInstalled Wind Capacity by StateCurrent U.S. wind deployment in 39 states with projections in all 50 states by 20305 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 6. Projected Wind Costs versusNatural Gas Combined Cycle Costs** Wind costs based on literature projections, Natural Gas costs based on EIA AEO 2013Sources: EIA, NREL, LBNLTechnology Innovation is the driver to reduce average wind costs below new & existingnatural gas combined cycle plants and other competing generation sources6 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 7. Growing Percentage of the Equipment in U.S.Wind Projects Has Been Sourced Domestically2220181614121086420Average Annual Turbine Equipment Cost(Calendar Year)Value of Selected Imports (Customs value,4 month lag, Sept - Aug * )Selected Import Content2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012*Selected Import Content as Fraction of Turbine CostBillion 2012$US100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%* For 2012, the import period is from September 2011 through November 2012.Combined import share of selected wind equipment tracked by trade codes, whenpresented as a fraction of total equipment-related turbine costs, declined from ~ 75%in 2006 to 30% in 20127 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 8. For Todays Technology, Demand-pullInfluences Wind ManufacturingU.S. Manufacturing is widely dispersed8 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 9. Wind Power IndustrySocial and Economic Impacts TodayPotential Emissions and Water Savings Estimated for YE2013EnvironmentalIndicatorPotential Savings andReductions due to WindPowerContextCarbon dioxide(CO2)115,000,000 metric tons Equivalent to taking 20 million cars off the roadSulfur dioxide(SO2)157,000 metric tonsSO2 is an EPA criteria pollutant that can affect publichealth concerns such as asthma.Nitrous oxide(NOX)97,000 metric tonsNOX is an EPA criteria pollutant that can affectpublic health concerns such as asthma.WaterConsumption36.5 billion gallonsEquivalent to 276 billion bottles of water, or roughly116 gallons per personSource: AWEA Wind power supported more than 50,000 onsite and supply chain jobs in 2013 Wind supply chain includes more than 560 facilities across 43 states Combined import share of selected wind equipment tracked by trade codes, whenpresented as a fraction of total equipment-related turbine costs, declined fromroughly 75% in 2006 to 30% in 2012Current U.S. wind deployment has significant environmental and economic impacts9 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 10. Wind Power IndustryU.S. Industry Near-Term OutlookU.S. annual capacity installations peaked in 2012 and then dropped rapidly due to12-18 month manufacturing lead times impacted by late 2012 PTC uncertaintySource: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual MarketReport and Bloomberg New Energy Finance H22014 North America Wind Market OutlookOffshore WindCumulative Capacityat 2013 YEAdditional CapacityForecast 2014-2017Europe 6,474 9,232China 419 1,950Other 38 1,512U.S. 0 484Total (MW) 6,931 12,694US Offshore wind significantly lagsbehind Europe and ChinaSource: Q3 2014 Global Wind Market Outlook,Bloomberg New Energy Finance. August 6, 2014Given long term U.S. policy uncertainty reduction in U.S. Wind manufacturing,deployment and related jobs projected relative to 2008-2012 high10 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 11. Increased Performance and Lower Coststhrough Wind Turbine Up-scalingSource: IEA (2013)Washington monument photo: David Iliff. License: CC-BY-SA 3.0.Statue of liberty photo: public domainIncreasing wind tower hub heights from 96 to 140 meters would unlock an additional1,800 gigawatts (GW) of wind power resource potential across the United States1111 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 12. Wind Energy Technologies OfficeStrategic OverviewProgramGoalsProgramPrioritiesKey FocusAreasTargetedOutcomes The mission of the WindEnergy Program is toaccelerate widespread U.S.deployment of clean,affordable, reliable, anddomestic wind power topromote national security,economic growth, andenvironmental quality The program has RDD&Dactivities which are applicableto utility-scale land andoffshore wind markets, as wellas small and midsize windturbines which are typicallyinterconnected on thedistribution grid at or near thepoint of end-use Optimize wind plant cost ofenergy reduction throughcomplex aerodynamics R&D,advanced componentdevelopment, wind plantreliability improvement andresource characterization Establish a competitive U.S.offshore wind industrythrough offshore systemdevelopment anddemonstration Optimize grid integration andtransmission for wind systemsthrough Integration studiesand operational forecastingtool development Eliminate and reduce marketbarriers through acceleratedsiting and deploymentstrategies Reduce the unsubsidizedmarket LCOE for utility-scaleland wind energy systemsfrom a reference wind cost of$.080/kWh in 2010 to$.057/kWh by 2020 and$.042/kWh by 2030* Reduce the unsubsidizedmarket LCOE for offshorefixed-bottom wind energysystems from a reference of$.210/kWh in 2010 to$.167/kWh by 2020 and$.136/kWh by 2030* Meeting these LCOE goals willenable meeting the Programsdeployment goal of movingfrom 61 GW of total U.S. windinstalled capacity in 2012 to125 GW of wind capacity by2020 and 300 GW by 2030*For Programmatic purposes, all costsare reported at a 7% discount rate. The Resource Characterization andTechnology RD&T (Land, Offshore,Distributed) consists of all officeactivitiesfrom conceptual design tomanufacturing and testing at scale that are directed to improve windcomponent, system, and planttechnologies for land-based, offshore,and distributed wind systems The Technology Validation andMarket Transformation subprogramseeks to significantly advance thedeployment of U.S. wind energyland-based, offshore, and distributed The Mitigate Market Barriers consistsof all office activities to reduce thecosts and duration of market barriers,including wildlife, environmental,radar, and integration barriers The Modeling and Analysissubprogram consists of all officeactivities to support crosscutting tooldevelopment and analysis to supporteffective, proactive annual, multi-yearand multi-decade program planningand project management andassessmentFY15 Budget focused on achieving wind LCOE parity without subsidies12 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 13. Wind Energy Technologies OfficeKey Accomplishments The Clemson University Restoration Institute (CURI) Drive Train Test Facilitybecame operational, housing 15-megawatt (MW) and 7.5-MW dynamometers. In partnership with DOD, DHS and DOT, completed all three rounds of theInteragency Field Test and Evaluation of Wind-Radar Mitigation Technologiesprogram to identify potential mitigation options to eliminate radarinterferences caused by physical and operational effects of wind turbines. The Offshore Wind Demonstration FOA projects, a planned six-year $180million initiative, were awarded and the engineering phase of thedemonstration begun, with final projects to be deployed by 2017. Phase Iwas completed in FY 14 and the initiative has moved into thedown-selection process. The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) Drive Train Testing Facilitybecame operational at NREL, housing 2.5 MW and 5.8 MW dynamometers withcontrollable grid interface, and installed and operated a 2 MW wind turbineowned by Gamesa and a 3 MW wind turbine owned by Alstom. Construction and commissioning of the Scaled Wind Farm TechnologyFacility (SWiFT), a joint project between SNL and Texas Tech University,was completed. Initial data sets of wind turbine-to-turbine interactionwere acquired and validation of complex flow aerodynamic modelingtools begun. Published the Annual DOE Wind Technology Market Report, describingthe status of the U.S. wind energy industry market; its trends, performance,market drivers and future outlook. Developed a new class of metricsaddressable GW and GIS tool to layerinteractions across multiple market barriers such as environmental, radar,transmission and public acceptance to inform and prioritize RDD&D impactson market barriers.13 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 14. Wind Energy Technologies OfficeStrategic FrameworkShifting the Wind Power R&D ParadigmPrior Year PrioritiesComponentoptimization(turbine LCOE)AmericanReinvestment andRecovery Actinvestments (ARRA)Begin offshore windinitiativeGrid integration andresourcecharacterizationBarriers, siting andpermitting(stakeholderengagement)FY14 - FY18 PrioritiesSystem-level wind plantperformance optimization(turbine LCOE)Leverage U.S. manufacturingand U.S. domesticcomponent productionFocus on major offshorewind demonstration projectand creating a sustainableU.S. offshore wind industryEERE-level cross-programcollaboration on optimizinggrid integration for RE sectorIncreased effort on reducingbarriers impacting windclass, including radar-relatedbarriers, to reduce LCOECurrent Year PrioritiesAtmosphere to Electrons (A2e) plantoptimization initiative launched andRevised System LCOE model basedon current market cost trendsIn coordination with EEREs Clean EnergyManufacturing Initiative (CEMI), focus oncarbon fiber materials and taller towersOffshore wind demonstration projectPhase II, moves into permitting andconstructionIn-depth studies including the WesternWind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2(WWSIS-2) and the Eastern RenewableGeneration Integration Study (ERGIS)Launch of new Regional Resource Centersand CWC, in-depth study on eagles andbats, and development of a Wind VisionreportInvestment focused on whole plant performance and integration14 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 15. Wind Energy Technologies OfficeInfrastructure InvestmentsSandia SWiFT Facility Inflow and wake interaction studies Unique capability within global R&D community Test bed for innovative flow measurement instrumentationNWTC Field Test Sites Utility-scale turbine inflow and wake measurement 11 MW variable renewable generation 50m and 19m blade test stands for testing to IEC standardsDOE Wind Technologies Office invests in state of the art testing facilities15 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 16. Wind ShearWind ShearOne of the largest remaining opportunities to reduce LCOE will come from substantial gains inunderstanding complex wind plant aerodynamics and atmospheric phenomena16 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 17. Introducing Atmosphere to Electrons(A2e)A2e is a new, multi-year, multi-stakeholder DOE R&D initiative taskedwith improving wind plant performance, mitigating risk and uncertaintyto achieve substantial reductions in the cost of wind energy.National Labs &Universities Subject Matter Expertise Project Planning R&D ExecutionPrivateIndustry R&D Execution Operational Expertise End User Requirements Access to Operating PlantsDOE Wind Program Federal Engagement & Oversight Integrated Program & ProjectManagement Budgetary ControlOtherFed Agencies Leverage Strategic Programs Access to HPC Core Competencies Subject Matter ExpertiseAtmosphere to Electrons (A2e) DOE lead partnership with National Laboratories,Universities, Industry, and International Stakeholders Integrated strategic research planning coordinatedthrough lead National Labs & DOE Research conducted by appropriate stakeholders 7 year anticipated durationIntl CollaborationCoordinated & CollaborativeResearch Campaigns17 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 18. Introducing Wind Vision Wind Vision is a one year project initiated summer 2013, with aWind Vision Report publication target Fall 2014 Wind Vision Study Scenario: 10% in 2020, 20% in 2030, 35% in 2050 includesland based, offshore (Quantitative) and distributed wind (Qualitative) Wind Vision Report is an external peer reviewed, transparent,non-biased assessment Wind Vision is led by DOE, with four National Laboratories leading 11supporting Task Forces, leveraging a collaboration of Industry, Government,RTOs, NGOs and Academia Wind Vision State of the Industry presents facts and trends toclarify misconceptions and dispel myths NREL ReEDS models study scenarios and sensitivities basedon normalized EIA AEO and literature based sources Wind Vision is analyzing the quantified value of the benefits andcosts of deploying large scale U.S. wind including quantified GHG,water, climate, health, energy diversity, and economic impacts andthe related costs to rates, grid systems and local communities Wind Vision is creating a shared roadmap action plan detailing theThe 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report (DOE, 2008)investigated the feasibility of a high windpenetration scenario, Wind Vision (DOE 2014)needed steps to achieve that vision for 2020, 2030 and 2050DOEs 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report analyzed is 20% wind possible and can windscale? New DOE Wind Vision confirms with data and asks what are the quantifiedsuggested a roadmap for achieving such a scenario.benefits/impacts of the Wind Vision and needed roadmap actions?18 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 19. 35% Study Scenario:Impacts and Benefits Summary Potential 9% reduction in electric sector CO2e in 2020, 23% in 2030 and 26% in 2050,yielding (with IWG estimates for the social cost of carbon) avoided damages of $110billion to $1,600 billion; central value of $520 billion (through 2050)Greenhouse GasEmissions Reduction Potential reduction in electric sector withdrawals/consumption of 6%/6% in 2020,15%/16% in 2030 and 20%/28% in 2050, yielding environmental and economicbenefits and reducing competition for a scarce resourceWater Use Reduction Reduction in fossil fuel use offers benefits to human & ecosystem health, and/orreduces cost of complying with environmental regulations; $16 billion to $103 billionin benefits under central assumptions, considering subset of impacts (through 2050)Health andEnvironmental Impacts Electric sector costs are 21% less sensitive to long-term changes in fossil fuel prices $320 billion in consumer benefits from reduced natural gas prices (taken at expenseof producers, through 2050)Energy Diversity andRisk Reduction Wind-related gross jobs increase 4-5x to 212,000-279,000 in 2020 and to 607,000-783,000 in 2050, distributed widely across U.S.; range in potential impacts dependson competitiveness of U.S. manufacturingEconomicDevelopment andWorkforce Impacts Local Land lease revenues are estimated at $350 million/yr in 2020 and nearly $1.1billion/yr by 2050; Local property tax payments are $890 million/yr in 2020 andexceed $3.2 billion/yr by 2050Local Land Lease andProperty Tax RevenuesThe impacts quantified here are predicated on numerous assumptions. Given spillover, rebound and economy-wideeffects, the policy mechanisms used to reach the Study Scenario may have a substantial impact on the degree to whichthese impacts are achieved. Wind energy may also not be the least expensive method for achieving these impacts.19 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 20. A New Vision for United StatesWind PowerThis DOE video animation focuses on visualizing the Wind Visionproject's main question:What will the future of wind energy inthe United States look like?20 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 21. Wind Power SummaryExcellent Resources, Robust Industry, Competitiveness Improving Wind technology innovation has driven cost reductions to historical lows, andcombined with federal (PTC) and State (RPS) policies has U.S. wind deployment of61GW to 4.5% of U.S. generation portfolio U.S. wind power is available in every region of the country, Land based and Offshore,with 50,000 manufacturing and installation/operations jobs in 44 statesSignificant benefits, both currently and in high penetration scenarios Wind has significant economic and health impacts with reduced GHGs andenvironmental toxins and lower water consumptionLong-term policy uncertainty remains Reduction in U.S. wind manufacturing, deployment and related jobs projected post-2015 relative to 2008-2012 highDOE investment focused on whole plant performance and integration Larger rotors, accessing higher wind speeds, with greater efficiencies, are crucial tocontinued costs reductions enabling competition with natural gas and othergeneration sources21 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 22. Backup Slides22 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 23. Wind Energy Technologies Office2015 PrioritiesWind Program FY 2015 Priorities Atmosphere to Electrons: Large scale field experiments in operating wind farms to measure wind inflow, rotor anddrivetrain loading conditions, wake creation, wake propagation, and wake ingestion of downstream turbines. Scaled fieldexperiments to study small scale flow structure of turbine inflow and wakes. High fidelity simulations linking the largescale physics of meso-scale flow to the smaller scale physics of wind plant and wind turbine inflow; this includes complexterrain effects and geographically regional flow variations. Development and testing of advance wind plant controls tooptimize wind plant performance and LCOE reduction. Offshore Wind Demonstration Projects: DOE on May 7, 2014 announced the selection of three pioneering offshore winddemonstrations to receive up to $47 million each over the next four years to deploy innovative, grid-connected systems infederal and state waters by 2017. These projectslocated off the coast of New Jersey, Oregon, and Virginiawill helpspeed the deployment of more efficient offshore wind power technologies. Maintain and Develop Critical Facilities: Swift (SNL) Development of new capability to conduct very high resolutionturbine wake measurements; new capability to deploy advance K-band radars to image the complex structure of wakespropagating downstream within a wind farm; and development of scaled blade set to mimic performance of a commonlydeployed GE wind blade set. NWTC (NREL) Instrumentation of an advanced gearbox in an operating wind farm tomeasure loading conditions through the drivetrain. Manufacturing: Wind-specific manufacturing R&D funding will enable much larger turbines for both land-based andoffshore wind markets. This will include the designs, materials, and manufacturing processes to overcome existingtransportation barriers and fabricate very large modular or onsite blades, towers, and generators. Market Acceleration and Deployment: Development and testing of wildlife deterrent technologies to reduce effects ofwind power at operational wind facilities. Grid Integration: Continue detailed Distributed Wind generation integration studies to better understand impacts ofincreased distributed wind generation on existing grid infrastructure. Initiate an Offshore Wind grid impact study tobetter understand the resultant impact of adding offshore generation to existing and future planned U.S. gridinfrastructure. The EERE allocation will support activities in forecasting, development of stochastic models in wind andsolar, and better determination of operating reserves due to variability and uncertainty of wind and solar technologies.23 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 24. Wind Turbine PricesRemain Well Below LevelsSeen Several Years AgoSource: DOE 2013 Wind TechnologiesMarket Report (In press)Individual Project Cost (708 projects totaling 50,210 MW)Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201324Wind Power IndustryU.S. Turbine and Project Cost TrendsLower Turbine PricingShowing Up In ReportedTotal Project Costs6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Installed Project Cost (2013 $/kW)Commercial Operation Date24 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 25. Performance Is Impacted bythe Physical Characteristics ofthe Turbine Fleet, IncludingLarger-Rotor MachinesSample includes 507 projects totaling 53.8 GW with a commercial operation date of 1998-2012Specific Power range of 200-220 (11 projects & 1.6 GW)Specific Power range of 220-300 (116 projects & 11.0 GW)Specific Power range of 300-400 (351 projects & 38.5 GW)Specific Power range of 400-500 (29 projects & 2.7 GW)25Wind Power IndustryU.S. Size Scaling and Performance Trends10090807060504030201002.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0Average Nameplate Capacity (left scale)Average Rotor Diameter (right scale)Average Tower Height (right scale)1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Commercial Operation Year50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%25 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.govMWMetersControlling for Wind ResourceQuality (and Curtailment)Demonstrates Impact ofTurbine Evolution0%Lower(114 projects, 8.5 GW)Medium(138 projects, 15.9 GW)Higher(188 projects, 22.8 GW)Highest(67 projects, 6.6 GW)Wind Resource QualityWeighted Average Capacity Factor in 2013Source: DOE 2013 Wind TechnologiesMarket Report (In press) 26. Wind Prices (Especially inInterior, w/ PTC) Are Hard toBeat: Toward the Lower Endof Average WholesaleElectric Prices in 2013Source: DOE 2013 Wind TechnologiesMarket Report (In press)Range of AEO14 gas price projectionsAEO14 reference case gas price projectionWind 2011 PPA execution (3,533 MW, 34 contracts)Wind 2012 PPA execution (721 MW, 9 contracts)Wind 2013 PPA execution (1,788 MW, 10 contracts)201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204026Wind Power IndustryU.S. Pricing Competitiveness Trends1009080706050403020100Wind project sample includes projectswith PPAs signed from 2003-2013Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (by calendar year)Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price (by year of PPA execution)200395702004135472005171,6432006302,3112007261,7812008393,4652009484,0402010414,1972011343,533201297212013101,7882013 $/MWhPPA year:Contracts:MW:Wind Prices (w/ PTC) Are Hard toBeat: Below the Current &Expected Future Cost of Burning1009080706050403020102013 $/MWhFuel in Natural Gas Plants 026 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 27. Example Results to Inform Priorities:Transmission ExpansionBaseline Study ScenarioCumulative 2013-2050 ExpansionNote: Intra-BA shading also reflectstransmission installed to move power fromoffshore plants to land-based substations Study Scenario 2030 transmission needs are 10% greater than the estimated 200 million MW-miles in placetoday (approximately 20,000 miles of new transmission, assuming typical 345 kV carrying capacity) Study Scenario 2050 transmission needs are 20% greater than the estimated 200 million MW-miles in placetoday (approximately 40,000 miles of new transmission, assuming typical 345 kV carrying capacity) Long-distance transmission builds are spread across the U.S., but more concentrated in the Mid-West, Texas,and the West Additional transmission investment is estimated at approximately $70 billion or 0.5 cents/kWh-wind27 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 28. Study Scenario: Water ImpactsPercentage Change in Water Consumption by 2050 for the Study (l) and Baseline (r) Scenarios The study scenario reduces national electric-sector water withdrawals by6% in 2020, 15% in 2030, and 20% in 2050 The study scenario reduces national electric-sector water consumption by6% in 2020, 16% in 2030, and 28% in 205028 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 29. Study Scenario: Direct, Indirect, and InducedJobs Resulting from Wind Investment The Study Scenario is projected to support a robust domestic wind industry; empiricalimpacts will be determined in part by the future strength of the domestic supply chain The contribution of wind-related jobs to economy-wide net job, gross domestic product, orbalance of trade gains or losses is not addressed in the analysis.29 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 30. Additional Impacts Covered Total land area affected by wind power installations in the Study Scenario equate toapproximately 2.5% of U.S. agricultural land. By 2050, affected land and offshoreareas total 111,000 km2 and 27,000 km2 respectivelyLand- and Water- AreaRequirements Discussion of climate changes impacts to wildlife and potential impacts of the studyscenario on avian and bat collisions, wildlife habitat, and rare and endangeredspeciesWildlife Anecdotal description of the impact of larger and taller turbines on FAA and radarsystems for land-based and offshore wind technologiesAviation and Radar Discussion of the concerns of communities co-located with wind plants; and theirpotential implications to the projected deployment in the study scenarioPublic Acceptance,Health, and Safety Discussion of unique aspects and justifications for offshore wind including: geographicproximity to densely populated coastal regions, plant production correlated with peakconsumption periods, local jobs and port development opportunitiesOffshore Wind Benefits Discussion of unique aspects and justifications for distributed wind including:competes with retail electricity rates, makes wind power available directly to variousconsumer segments (e.g., homeowners, schools, farmers); strong US exports in smallwind turbinesDistributed WindBenefits30 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 31. High Performance Computing (HPC)Capability - Immediate Technical ChallengesInflow and Boundary Layer ModelsImproving mesoscale models for turbine-level winds incomplex terrain is a critical need for defining the inflowcharacteristics driving plant performance: Downscaling from mesoscale grids to capture appropriateturbulence scales Boundary layer profiles with nominal (power law) andunique (K-H, nocturnal, marine PBL) characteristics Stable, neutral and unstable conditions Complex terrain as defined by a unique TBDcharacterization Ground cover (vegetation) effects and considerations Wind/wave interface interaction effectsWind Plant ModelsA well-structured and balanced R&D portfolio to developan integrated wind plant simulation and performancemodeling capability capturing critical flow physics including: Two-way coupling with inflow PBL modeling physics Turbulent and momentum flux across computationalboundaries at the appropriate dimensional and spectral scales Wake meandering Complex topography boundary conditions High fidelity coherent vortex and turbulence propagation atrelevant scales Command and control of individual turbines throughout windfarm domainWind Turbine ModelsHigh fidelity wind turbine aeroelastic modeling capabilitycapturing the essential blade/fluid interactions formomentum conversion and turbulent wake developmentincluding: FEM aeroelastic coupled rotor/blade dynamics and flowinteraction response Detailed tip vortex development and convection. Rotor impacts on near field wake development Rotor yaw, collective pitch, individual blade pitch, bladedeformation, and nacelle pitch command control31 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov 32. High Performance Computing (HPC)Capability Program OverviewObjectiveNext generation of high fidelity, multi-scale, multi-physics modelingand simulation tools that incorporate the underlying physics &phenomenology of large multi-array wind plants .. Implemented a New DOE Initiative: Atmosphere to ElectronsAddressing Wind Plant Optimization Formulating an International Team of HPC Experts to DevelopIntegrated Multi-Year Program Addressing Multi-Scale, Multi-Physics Challenges Establishing Collaborative with ASCR, DOE/SC, NOAA, NationalLaboratories, Universities, OEMs Open Source Development Exploiting Peta- and Exa-ScaleComputational Resources Coordinated Experimental CampaignsExpected Impacts Understanding the underlying physical processes andcausal effects driving wind plant underperformance Optimized Performance of Existing Wind Plants Seamless Integration of Wind Energy at HighPenetration Levels (>20%) Next Generation of Wind Plant TechnologyDevelopment32 | Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov