sanilacregion_highereducationcenter

The Sanilac Region Higher Education Center Market and Feasibility Analysis Study

Final Report and Recommendations

EDA University Center for Economic Diversification University of

Michigan Ross School of Business April 2005

Sanilac Higher Education Center Feasibility Study Final Report 2

THE SANILAC REGION HIGHER EDUCATION CENTER

MARKET AND FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS STUDY

FINAL REPORT

Lawrence Molnar, Director, EDA University Center Program Principal Investigator

September 2004- April 2005:

David Leopold, Graduate Student Manager Michael Chia, Student Research Assistant Wentao Hu, Student Research Assistant Nick Owens, Student Research Assistant

Alzeira Pereira, Student Research Assistant Aidan Ryan, Student Research Assistant

Morgan Williams, Student Research Assistant

April 2003- August 2004: Mark Johnson, Graduate Student Manager Scott Albrecht, Student Research Assistant Diana Bejasa, Student Research Assistant Ravi Perry, Student Research Assistant


Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 5

MOTIVATION ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5 PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................................................... 5 GOALS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 DATA ANALYSIS OF STUDENT RESPONDENTS ........................................................................................................... 6 DATA ANALYSIS OF TEACHER RESPONDENTS ........................................................................................................... 6 DATA ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYER RESPONDENTS ........................................................................................................ 7 DATA ANALYSIS OF HEALTH CARE RESPONDENTS .................................................................................................. 7 PROPOSED CURRICULUM ................................................................................................................................................. 8 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ............................................................................................................................................... 8 BUSINESS AND OPERATING PLAN .................................................................................................................................. 8 PROJECT INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 9 MOTIVATION AND GOAL OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................................................... 9 AREA BOUNDARIES ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ..................................................................................................................................... 10 A BRIEF ECONOMIC HISTORY ....................................................................................................................................... 11 CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ............................................................................................................................. 12 FUTURE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ................................................................................................................................ 14 STUDENT SURVEY METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 15 TEACHER SURVEY METHODS ....................................................................................................................................... 15 EMPLOYER SURVEY METHODS .................................................................................................................................... 15 ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 15

RESULTS AND FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................................... 16 HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY KEY FINDINGS .................................................................................................... 16

Overall Interest ................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Interest by Future Occupation ......................................................................................................................................... 16 Agriculture ....................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Potential Benefits Offered by a Vocation/Technical Training Center .............................................................................. 20 Distance Willing to Travel ............................................................................................................................................... 20

TEACHER SURVEY KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................... 21 Distance ........................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Potential Benefits Offered by a Vocation/Technical Training Center .............................................................................. 26

EMPLOYER SURVEY KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................ 27 Overall Interest ................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Interest by Geography ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 Interest by Industry .......................................................................................................................................................... 27 Employment Barriers ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Subject Area Demand ....................................................................................................................................................... 29 Employer Assistance ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 Higher Education Center Assistance ............................................................................................................................... 30 Healthcare Sector ............................................................................................................................................................. 31

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................ 33 ENROLLMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 33 CURRICULUM .................................................................................................................................................................... 34 EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION FINDINGS ..................................................................................................................... 37

STRATEGIC PLAN FOR FACILITY .................................................................................................................................. 38 THE VISION ........................................................................................................................................................................ 38 THE MISSION...................................................................................................................................................................... 38 THE GOALS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 38 THE OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................................................................................. 38


IMPLEMENTATION STEPS ............................................................................................................................................... 38 BUSINESS AND OPERATING PLAN ................................................................................................................................. 40

ANNUAL OPERATING BUDGET ..................................................................................................................................... 40 CONSTRUCTION AND ACQUISITION COSTS ............................................................................................................... 45 POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FUNDING ............................................................................................................................. 46 APPENDICES........................................................................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX A: PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC BASE EMPLOYERS ....................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX B: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ...................................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX C: HIGH SCHOOL CONTACTS ............................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX D: HIGH SCHOOL RESPONSE LIST ........................................................................................................................ 47 APPENDIX E: HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY COVER LETTER ........................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX F: HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY .................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX G: HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY CODE BOOK ............................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX H: HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY DATA ......................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX I: TEACHER SURVEY ........................................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX J: TEACHER SURVEY CODE BOOK ........................................................................................................................ 47 APPENDIX K: TEACHER SURVEY DATA ................................................................................................................................. 47 APPENDIX L: EMPLOYER SURVEY CONTACTS ....................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX M: EMPLOYER SURVEY........................................................................................................................................ 47 APPENDIX N: EMPLOYER SURVEY CODE BOOK .................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX O: EMPLOYER SURVEY DATA .............................................................................................................................. 47 APPENDIX P: MDLEG COMMUNITY COLLEGE PROFILES ..................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX Q: CURRICULUM AVAILABILITY .......................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX R: IT START-UP COSTS ........................................................................................................................................ 47 APPENDIX S: DEPARTMENT START-UP COSTS ....................................................................................................................... 47 ABRIDGED APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX A: PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC BASE EMPLOYERS ....................................................................................................... 48 APPENDIX B: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ...................................................................................................................................... 49 APPENDIX P: MDLEG COMMUNITY COLLEGE PROFILES ...................................................................................................... 51 APPENDIX Q: CURRICULUM AVAILABILITY .......................................................................................................................... 52 APPENDIX R: IT START-UP COSTS ........................................................................................................................................ 59 APPENDIX S: DEPARTMENT START-UP COSTS ....................................................................................................................... 60


The Sanilac Region Higher Education Center Market and Feasibility Analysis Study

Executive Summary

MOTIVATION In recent years the Sanilac County region has experienced a trend of young people leaving the area in pursuit of post-high school higher education. The reduction in the youth population (18-35 years) has put a strain on the economic vitality of the region. The lack of options for graduating high school students has contributed to a shortage of a skilled labor pool in the region and a lack of access for current employees needing to upgrade work-skills. In an increasingly competitive world market, area employers have been disadvantaged by the shortage of access to skills-related education for existing employees. The emerging healthcare sector may also suffer from a shortage of medical assistants and nurses if the region is unable to increase the supply.

PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to assess whether there is sufficient market demand to establish and operate a Regional Higher Education Center within the Sanilac County region of Michigan. Given sufficient demand, the study proposes a comprehensive set of recommendations including prospective curriculum, necessary facilities, equipment, instrumentation, projected enrollments, and a business and operating plan.

GOALS An important goal of this study is to determine the viability of the creation of a Higher and Continuing Education Vocational/Technical Training Center to provide graduating high school students with expanded higher education options within the county, and to meet student demands for vocational and alternative education coursework. Other high-priority goals are to provide local K-12 system teachers with convenient access to a higher education facility for continuing certification requirement coursework, and to provide area employers with a competitive and skilled labor force. The long term goals of this study include economic revitalization, community building, and educational enrichment. It is hoped that a skilled employee labor force will attract more employers to the region and promote the growth of existing industries. The retention of a greater number of high school graduates in the area and the consideration given to teacher continuing education needs will encourage residence within the region, building and nourishing the Sanilac Region community. The center will not only provide core competency vocational and continuing education training, but special interest classes, such as graphic design or criminal justice, as well to enrich the educational value it brings.


DATA ANALYSIS OF STUDENT RESPONDENTS Of the 1726 students surveyed, 34% indicated high interest in attending a vocational/technical training center upon graduation, while 25% indicated medium to high interest in attendance. The top four benefits students looked for in a vocational/technical training center were flexibility in class schedules (68%), financial assistance (66%), qualified faculty and staff (61%), and work/study opportunity (60%). Distance to the vocational/technical training center was not found to be a large factor for students provided the center is within 26 miles of student residence. The five highest ranked subject areas of interest to students were education (35% expressing high interest), Business Administration (27%), Criminal Justice (27%), Health Care (26%), and Graphic Arts (26%). These represent non-traditional vocational training subjects. While non-traditional subjects interested a greater percentage of students, traditional vocational subjects were favored when students were asked whether they would attend a higher education center for their educational training. For three subject areas, students expressed a high interest in attending the center after demonstrating interest in a subject: Welding (50% expressing high interest), Plumbing/Pipefitting (48%), and Automotive Service and Repair (46%). Given the respondent and non-respondent high school student data, a conservative estimate of enrollment based off of student interest would be 199 students enrolled in Welding, 89 enrolled in Plumbing and Pipefitting, and 194 enrolled in Automotive Service and Repair. Note that while non-traditional vocational subjects ranked higher than traditional subjects in overall interest, students interested in traditional vocational subjects were more likely to attend a vocational/technical training center.

DATA ANALYSIS OF TEACHER RESPONDENTS Of the 175 teachers surveyed, 55% placed a high importance on the offering of graduate level courses at a higher education center, 52% emphasized the high importance of technology workshops, and 49% of teachers indicated high interest for in service subject specification. The three most demanded forms of assistance a higher education center could provide were flexibility of class hours (85% indicating high importance), tuition reimbursement (80%), and compensation for time spent in class (65%). When asked about distance, 76% of respondents were willing to travel at least 20 miles to a higher education center. The majority (64.6%) of respondents were not willing to take a shuttle to the potential center. Of those that said they were willing to take a shuttle, the maximum price respondents were willing to pay each way was 3 dollars. The survey showed that 34.3% of respondents had more than 20 years of experience, compared to 15.4% with less than 5 years of experience. There is an indication of a disproportionate number of older teachers (21% aged 51-55) compared to younger teachers (5% aged 21-25). The present disproportion in age suggests a future infusion to young teachers to fill the gap left by older retiring teachers. Note that teachers with 3-5 years of experience who havent received their professional certification must complete 18 graduate credit hours, while teachers who have already acquired certification only need to take 6 graduate credits every 5 years. This indicates significant future demand for graduate credits. Of the teachers less than 45 years old, the five most demanded subject areas were Computer Science/Technology (35%), English (20%), General Sciences (15%), Technology Education (11%), and Social Studies (11%). Of the teachers 45 years and older, the five most demanded subject areas were Computer Science/Technology (35%), Technology Education (22%), English (14%), Special Education


(14%), and Math (10%). There appears to be emphasis in both groups of teachers on subjects dealing with Technology and English. Once again, given the respondent and non-respondent data from the teachers surveys the following numbers are conservative estimates on teacher enrollment in the Higher Education Center. Computer Science/Technology would have 278 teachers enrolled in the class, 167 in Technology Education, 135 in English, 80 in General Science, and 72 teachers enrolled in Math classes.

DATA ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYER RESPONDENTS Of the 27 employers surveyed, 81.5% indicated medium to high interest in a vocational/technical training facility, and 59.3% expressed high interest. Out of the responding employers, a moderate estimate of 353 employees was calculated for their likelihood of attending the center. However, when calculating the non-responding major employers in the area (the list of employers can be found in Appendix A), it would increase that conservative estimate by 140 employees to a total of 493. A majority, 63.0%, of employers surveyed were in the manufacturing sector, while 14.8% of employers were in the service industry and 14.8% were in health care. The five highest ranked employment barriers identified were poor employee attendance and punctuality (85.2% indicated medium to high importance), lack of technical skills (85.1%), low employee educational level (81.4%), lack of prior employment or experience (70.3%), and lack of educational facilities to supply trained employees (66.6%). Employers were willing to allow flexible employee hours to permit the attendance of a vocational/technical center (66.7%), as well as help defray costs (88.9%), but were not willing to offer incentives, such as vacation time and bonuses, or pay for employee time spent in class. The five most important expectations employers had of a vocational/technical center were flexible class scheduling (74% indicating high importance), convenient location (66.6%), financial assistance (62.9%), input regarding courses/training (62.9%), and computer access (55.5%). The five most demanded subject areas were Machine Repair (50% expressing high interest), Engineering (50%), Computer Programming (45.8%), Welding (37.5%), and Business Administration (37.5%). Note the crossover between employer demands and student interests. Business Administration ranked second in overall student interest, while students interested in Welding were most likely to attend a vocational/technical center.

DATA ANALYSIS OF HEALTH CARE RESPONDENTS Of the 4 employers that identified their industry as health care, all expected growth within their organizations in the next decade. The five health care positions with the highest projected growth were Registered Nurse, Nurse Assistant, Licensed Practical Nurse, Rehabilitation Therapist, and Assisted Living Specialist. There appears to be large projected growth amongst medical support staff. This may be a natural consequence of the expanding health care industry within the Sanilac County region. The high level of projected demand for nurses warrants consideration in the curriculum of a higher education vocational/training center.


PROPOSED CURRICULUM The proposed curriculum for the higher education vocation/technical training center was established by combining anticipated emerging industries with the interests of students, teachers, and employer interests. The Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth predicted emerging industries in the Sanilac region to be: Personal Care & Service, Construction & Extraction, Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Occupation, Healthcare & Support, and Sales-Related Occupations. Curriculum considerations were classified into first priority and second priority subject areas. First priority subject areas are those that were common to student and employer survey respondents, while fitting the anticipated emerging industries in the region. Second priority subject areas are those special interest subject areas that were highly demanded by a particular group. First priority subject areas are as follows: Engineering, Computer Science/Technology/Programming, Construction, Health Care (primarily nursing staff), Business Administration, Welding, and Machine Repair. Second priority subject areas are: Education, Criminal Justice, Graphic Arts, Advertising, Automotive Service Repair, Electrician, Carpentry/Millwright, and Teacher Certification Classes (primarily English, General Sciences, and Math).

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT Projected enrollment figures were calculated for high school students, non-traditional students (defined as those who attend classes but are not pursuing specific degrees, or those older than typical college students), teachers, and employees. Figures were based on survey respondents as well as estimated response rates for non-respondents, and were divided into conservative, moderate, and optimistic enrollment numbers. The projections for high school students were 508, 678, and 762 (conservative, moderate, and optimistic). Projections for non-traditional students were 99, 340, and 495. Projections for teachers were 173, 231, and 260. Lastly, projections for employees were 319, 638, and 957. Total enrollment figures across demographic categories were 1099, 1887, and 2474 (conservative, moderate, and optimistic).

BUSINESS AND OPERATING PLAN Seven year operating budgets and income statements were constructed for conservative, moderate, and optimistic enrollment scenarios (based on attendance of 1095, 1709, and 2113 students, respectively). Net income of the facility varied heavily based on the differing enrollment scenarios, but a positive net income was projected in each case. First year net income for the conservative, moderate, and optimistic enrollment figures were projected at $311,423, $805,939, and $1,131,321, respectively. The facility is, therefore, deemed to be financially feasible. Construction and acquisition costs for the facility were based on an outside contractors (French Associates) estimates, which were verified with other construction firms. An inflation adjusted figure of $189 per square foot was used to estimate construction costs of the approximately 35,000 square foot facility, resulting in a building cost of $6.615 million. After allowances for lighting/parking/drainage, departmental equipment, classroom equipment, and initial information technology setup, the total initial cost of the facility was calculated at $8.77 million.


Sanilac Higher Education Center Project Overview

PROJECT INTRODUCTION The Sanilac Intermediate School District and the Thumb Higher Education Authority are assessing the possibility of establishing a Higher and Continuing Education Vocational/Technical Training Center within the Sanilac region. There are currently limited opportunities for advanced, higher, continuing and vocational/technical training and education in the area. The establishment of a Sanilac Regional Higher Education Center could help alleviate problems of employers such as lack of access to skills training for current employees and a lack of skills in new hires. The proposed center could alleviate this issue by providing residents with valuable job training needed by current and emerging industries. The center could also serve to help retain young students in the area who otherwise after high school would leave the community to pursue educational opportunities elsewhere. Another component of the Center would be to provide teachers in the K-12 systems in the region with continuing education opportunities and classes to meet certification requirements.

MOTIVATION AND GOAL OF THE STUDY The goal of this study is to determine whether there is a sufficient market demand to establish and operate a Sanilac Regional Higher Education Center within the Sanilac County region of Michigan. Given a sufficient market demand for such a center, the study also identifies the prospective curriculum, the necessary facilities, equipment, instrumentation, and projected enrollments. The purpose of building a vocational/training higher education center is to help revitalize and stabilize the Sanilac Countys population and work force through the provision of education and training programs leading to increased numbers of skilled workers in the labor force.

AREA BOUNDARIES The primary focus area of the study consists of all of Sanilac County, along with portions of Huron, Lapeer, St. Clair and Tuscola Counties. As indicated in Figure 1, the study boundary consists of an approximately 30-40 mile radius around the current location of the Sanilac Career Center. The major cities in this area are Bad Axe, Brown City, Capac, Croswell, North Branch, Marlette, Lexington and Sandusky.

Figure 1: Study Area Map

Source: Mapquest.com


DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION The population statistics for the counties located in the Sanilac region are shown below in Table 1. As shown below, Lapeer is the largest county with 91,314 residents. The population of the region is predominately white, and very few minority communities exist. That said, Hispanics represent the largest minority population (2.61% of the total regional population). African-Americans represent the next largest minority population (0.54%). With the exception of Lapeer County, the elderly represent a greater share of the total population of the Sanilac region compared to the state. We hypothesize that this greater share of elderly population is largely due to stagnating population growth. For example, Lapeer County has consistently experienced strong population growth, including a 17.6% growth between 1990 and 2000. By attracting families to the county, Lapeer has increased tax revenues and reduced the burden placed on social services by an overwhelming elderly population. An important goal of the proposed higher education center would be to retain the regions youth population while attracting more young people and families to the region. The population in the Sanilac region is also predominately rural. For example, the United States Census Bureau estimates that of the 44,583 residents in Sanilac County, approximately 31,000 residents reside in rural areas while the remaining reside in small cities, which include Sandusky, Croswell, Marlette, Brown City, and Lexington. This fact highlights the challenge of developing a center that will be able to service a dispersed population. Compared to the rest of the state, fewer people within the Sanilac region hold bachelors degrees, and residents have a lower average per capita and median household income. We hypothesize that this education gap acts as a driver of the lower average income of residents compared to the state average. Again, Lapeer County stands as an outlier in these observations with a greater median household income than the state average. This may be due to the fact that Lapeer County is home to many commuters that work in the metro-Detroit and Flint areas.

Table 1: Population Statistics Population Age Race

County 2003 Population

% Growth (2000-2003)

Age 19 and Under

Age 20-44

Age 45-64

Age 65 and Over White Hispanic

African American Other

Huron 35,216 --2.4% 26.3% 29.4% 24.7% 19.9% 98% 1.60% 0.30% 0.10%Lapeer 91,314 3.9% 30.6% 35.9% 23.9% 9.6% 96.20% 3.10% 0.40% 0.30%Sanilac 44,583 0.1% 29.5% 32.2% 23.1% 15.3% 96.90% 2.80% 0.30% 0.00%Tuscola 58,382 0.2% 29.5% 33.6% 24.4% 12.8% 96% 2.30% 1.10% 0.60%Total 229,495 1.62% 29.45% 33.60% 23.99% 13.10% 96.56% 2.61% 0.54% 0.29%

Source: US Census Bureau


Table 2: Regional Education and Income Statistics Compared to State Average County Bachelors

Degree/Higher Per Capita Income ($)

Median Household Income

Huron 10.9% 17,851 35,315Lapeer 12.7% 21,462 51,717Sanilac 10.0% 17,089 36,870Tuscola 10.6% 17,985 40,174Regional Average 11.4% 19,174 43,379Michigan Average 21.8% 22,168 44,667

A BRIEF ECONOMIC HISTORY Settlers first arrived to the Sanilac region in the 1830s. These early settlers were attracted to the regions vast abundance of natural resources, and lumber soon became the primary industry of the region. Unfortunately, the regions resources soon became depleted by the 1860s, and a massive fire swept through Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties in the spring of 1881 and weakened the remaining lumber industry. At this time, agriculture became the predominate industry and largely remains so today. In the mid-1800s, wheat and wool became the regions most important crops. After westward expansion, however, these crops became less important. The region then began to focus on other crops, including sugar beets. Other industries of early importance to the region included fishing, salt mining, and grindstone manufacturing. Fishing and salt mining were of primary importance to the coastal counties. Unfortunately, the fishing industry reached capacity near 1920 and collapsed by the 1940s. Salt mining grew in the late nineteenth century and still remains an important industry today in Huron County. Interestingly, the region became the grindstone capital of the world in the 1840s after the discovery of a unique mineral source that could be used to manufacture grindstones. The industry boomed and Grindstone City (Huron County) also grew around it. The city and industry underwent a sharp decline, however, when carborundum (silicon carbide crystals) replaced grindstone following the First World War.


CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS As shown below in Table 3, several critical industries have left the Sanilac Region since 1990. These plant closures have resulted in declining employment opportunities in the region. The cause of these closures could be attributed to the overall decline of automotive and general manufacturing facilities throughout the state.

Table 3: Principal Economic Base Employers (Sanilac County Profile 1990)

Firm City Employees Product/Service 2005 Status

Yale Rubber Mfg. Sandusky 551 Rubber products ClosedLear Corp Marlette 550 Auto parts ClosedClements Mfg. Deckerville 362 Auto wire harnesses ClosedPlastafiber Industries Marlette 220 Auto soft trim parts ClosedSnover Stamping Snover 214 Automobile parts, trim ClosedAunt Jane's Pickle Croswell 200 Pickles ClosedXplorer Motor Homes Brown City 150 Motor homes/RV's ClosedDeckerville Die Form Deckerville 143 Molding/trims ClosedMichigan Peat Sandusky 100 Peat/Horticulture products ClosedNational Coach Port Sanilac 100 Custom limousines ClosedCroswell Plastics Croswell 75 Injection molding-auto ClosedMagnetek Peck 70 Electronic controls ClosedD & A Industries Croswell 65 Automotive parts ClosedHuron Mfg. Lexington 400 Auto supplier, fittings RunningDott Mfg. Deckerville 285 Auto molding/decorating RunningMichigan Sugar Croswell 285 Beet sugar RunningMid-West Rubber Deckerville 258 Rubber products RunningNumatics Sandusky 125 Valves RunningOetiker Marlette 71 Clamping technology RunningDeckerville Plastics Deckerville 65 Auto decorating/trim/window RunningConveyor Components Croswell 56 Conveyor & parts Running

Source: Michigan Economic Development Corporation and Reference USA


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Figure 2 highlights the motor vehicle and parts industry, and while accounting for more than one third of the state of Michigans manufacturing jobs, is a source of weakness for Sanilac regions manufacturing industries. The increased cost of metal and petroleum-based products are dampening profitability of auto-parts suggesting that the county is unlikely to see near-term job growth in this sector (data from FDIC). However, Figure 2 also indicates a large advance in the demand for jobs in elderly care and health care such as nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants as well as a growth in the market consulting workforce. This data corresponds with Figure 3 that suggests a significant growth in healthcare and healthcare support in the following years.


FUTURE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Despite the recent closure of some large manufacturers, the job outlook for the Thumb area is promising, particularly in the service sector of the economy. Figure 3 presents information on net job increase in the Thumb area (defined as Sanilac, Huron, Lapeer, and Tuscola Counties) for both occupational categories as well as specific occupations between 2000 and 2010. The data below shows that the greatest growth will come from the Sales and Related Occupations, Construction and Extraction, Personal Care and Service, and Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations. Sales and Related Occupations are expected to grow by over 1000 in jobs such as sales representatives, telemarketers, sales engineers, real estate, as well as parts and retail salespersons. Construction and Extraction Occupations are anticipated to grow by over 600 jobs for carpenters, tapers, roofers, sheet metal workers, stonemasons, and earth drillers. Personal Care and Service Occupations such as animal caretakers, recreation workers, and child care workers are estimated to rise by over 450 jobs. Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are predicted to rise over 400 in jobs such as medical transcriptionists, psychiatric aides and dental and medical assistants. To foster this growth, the Thumb Region must ensure they are adequately prepared to meet the needs of an evolving economic base. More information about the future economic conditions of Sanilac County can be found in Appendix B.

Figure 3: Largest Growing Occupational Categories (2000-2010)

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Methods and Analysis

STUDENT SURVEY METHODS In order to determine the demand for a Sanilac Regional Higher Education Center, a survey designed to determine the interest of students in such a center was distributed to eighteen high schools in the region. Of the eighteen schools, thirteen distributed and returned the completed surveys. The students, 960 juniors and 756 seniors, were surveyed to determine issues (For complete High School List and survey related documents see Appendix C, D, E, F, G, and H) such as overall interest in the possible higher education center, interest in future occupations, and the distance they were willing to travel to attend a higher education center. The analysis of the student demand for a higher education center was based on the 1726 surveys completed by the high school students, and the projected demand of student responses from the five non-participating schools which was calculated at 765 students.

TEACHER SURVEY METHODS A second survey was designed to determine the interest that teachers in Sanilac County would have in an education center. Teachers from grades K-12, as well as guidance counselors, school staff, and special education teachers were asked to rate their interest in attending continuing education or certification requirement classes. In addition, they were asked to comment on the potential benefits of such as center, what types of classes they would be willing to take, and the overall availability and convenience of existing institutions. The analysis of the teacher demand for the proposed center was based on the response of 175 teachers from Sanilac, Lapeer, Huron, and Tuscola Public Schools. (For teacher survey related documents see Appendices I, J, and K)

EMPLOYER SURVEY METHODS In addition to high school students and teachers, a survey designed to explore the interests of employers regarding the establishment of and support for a higher education center was distributed to employers in the region (see Appendix L). The analysis of the employers demand was based on surveys completed by the businesses owners and employers. Employers were asked questions regarding their overall interest in the proposed higher education center, their perceptions of barriers in recruiting and training employees, various important employee skills, and the types of assistance they would be willing to provide to their employees to attend a higher education center. (For the complete information about the employer surveys, see Appendices L, M, N, and O)

ANALYSIS The responses to student, employer, and teacher surveys were entered into a statistical analysis computer program, SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), and a variety of comparative and descriptive statistics were generated. By compiling and cross-tabulating the students and teachers responses, we were able to examine issues such as the relationship between gender and interest in the Sanilac Regional Higher Education Center, the relationship between career interests and the interest in attending the Center, and the distance there are willing to travel versus their interest in the Center. Employers responses were also compiled and analyzed to examine projected future increases in employment, skill and training


deficiencies in the labor force, and the value to employers of establishing a vocational/technical training center. To further explore the curriculum that the proposed higher education center might offer, similar educational facilities were examined. Statewide institutions were researched based on the academic and vocational programs offered and the number of students which attended the programs. These programs were then matched to the most requested programs by the high school students that were surveyed.

Results and Findings

HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SURVEY KEY FINDINGS

Overall Interest Students were asked to rate their interest level on a scale from 1 to 5, in attending vocational training and continuing education center after graduation. The responses were classified as high interest (4 or 5), medium interest (3), and low interest (1 or 2). Results showed that 590 students (34%) indicated a high interest in obtaining vocational/technical training after graduation while 429 students (25%) indicated a medium interest. Both males and females responded similarly to this question.

Interest by Future Occupation Students were asked to rate their interest in pursuing a variety of occupations and careers. Interest in pursuing specific careers was correlated with interest in attending vocational/technical training after graduation. The data contained in the table indicates the highest student interest in a higher education center for students interested in several of the most frequently selected occupations. A detailed description of each career occupation follows. Education 600 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in education. Higher Educational training: Of these 600 students, 217 (36%) indicated a high interest and 154 (26%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Business Administration 465 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in business administration. Higher Educational training: Of these 465 students, 174 (37%) indicated a high interest and 121 (26%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Criminal Justice 459 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in criminal justice. Higher Educational training: Of these 459 students, 178 (39%) indicated a high interest and 121 (26%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation.


Health Care 451 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in healthcare. Higher Educational training: Of these 451 students, 184 (41%) indicated a high interest and 94 (21%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Graphic Arts 450 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in graphic arts. Higher Educational training: Of these 450 students, 178 (40%) indicated a high interest and 128 (29%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Advertising 424 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in advertising. Higher Educational training: Of these 424 students, 178 (42%) indicated a high interest and 98 (23%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Engineering 375 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in engineering. Higher Educational training: Of these 375 students, 140 (38%) indicated a high interest and 98 (26%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Computer Programming 365 students indicated a high interest in pursuing a career in computer programming. Higher Educational training: Of these 365 students, 138 (38%) indicated a high interest and 106 (29%) indicated a medium interest in pursuing vocational/technical training after graduation. Table 4: Interest in Higher Education for the Top Selected Occupations

Occupation Number of Students Highly Interested in Occupation

Students with a High Interest in a Vocational/Technical Training Center

Students with a Medium Interest in a Vocational/Technical Training Center

Total Interest of High and Medium Interest in the Center

Education 600 217 (36%) 154 (26%) 371

Business Administration 465 174 (37%) 121 (26%) 295

Criminal Justice 459 178 (39%) 121 (26%) 299

Health Care 451 184 (41%) 94 (21%) 278

Graphic Arts 450 178 (40%) 128 (29%) 306

Advertising 424 178 (42%) 98 (23%) 276

Engineering 373 140 (38%) 98 (26%) 238

Computer Programming 365 138 (38%) 106 (29%) 244


Other Careers The careers indicated above received the most interest from students that indicate a high interest in attending a vocational/technical training center after graduation, which indicates a small shift away from the traditional vocational/technical careers. However the traditional vocational/technical careers still had a sizeable response rate. Welding had 246, 14% of total respondents indicate a high interest, Automotive/Service Repair had 327, 18% of total respondents, and Construction had 345, 19% of total respondents indicate a high interest in the occupation. Interestingly, these more traditional vocational/technical occupations had a higher percentage of those interest respondents also indicate that they would like to attend a Vocational/Technical training Center. 43% if the students highly interested in Automotive/Service repair (148 respondents) indicated that they had an interest in attending a vocational/technical training center. Whereas the highest occupation response of Education (600 respondents indicating high interest in occupation) had 36% (217 Respondents) indicate that they would like to attend a vocational/technical training center. Therefore, although there is a higher demand for nontraditional vocational/technical training classes, the traditional classes have a higher percentage of those students interested in the occupation also interested in attending a vocational/technical training center for that occupation. Table 5 shows an expanded ranking of both student subject of interest and overall interest in attending a higher education center. Table 5: Interest in Higher Education for the Top Selected Occupations

Subject Area Students With High Level Of Interest Of Subject Area

Students W/ High Level Interest In Attending A Higher Education Center That Had A High Level Interest In Subject

Education 600 (35%) 217 (36%)

Business Administration 465 (27%) 174 (37%)

Criminal Justice 459 (27%) 178 (39%)

Health Care 451 (26%) 184 (41%)

Graphic Arts 450 (26%) 178 (40%)

Advertising 424 (25%) 178 (42%)

Engineering 373 (22%) 140 (38%)

Computer Programming 365 (21%) 138 (38%)

Cook/Chef 363 (21%) 150 (41%)

Hotel/Ski Resort Management 360 (21%) 132 (37%)

Nursing 358 (21%) 159 (44%)

Childcare and Development 354 (20%) 143 (40%)

Restaurant Management 349 (20%) 133 (38%)

Construction 345 (19%) 148 (43%)

Social Work 344 (19%) 127 (37%)

Automotive/ Service Repair 327 (18%) 151 (46%)

Secretary/Office Assistant 297 (17%) 133 (45% )

Electrician 291 (17%) 124 (43%)

Carpenter/Millwright 268 (15%) 119 (44%)

Machine Repair 256 (15%) 110 (43%)


Subject Area (Continued)

Students With High Level Of Interest Of Subject Area

Students W/ High Level Interest In Attending A Higher Education Center That Had A High Level Interest In Subject

Welding 246 (14%) 123 (50%)

Dental Hygiene 231 (13%) 86 (37%)

Logging/Forestry 161 (9%) 65 (21%)

Plumbing/Pipefitting 135 (7%) 66 (48%)

Table 6: Students Highly Interested in Attending a Higher Education Center Given Subject Area

Subject Area

Students With High Level Of Interest Of Subject Area

Students W/ High Level Of Interest In Subject And High Level Of Interest In Attending A Higher Education Center

Estimated Student Response For High Level Of Interest From No Response Schools(From A Population Of 765)

Estimated Student Response For High Interest In Center

Response And Estimated Total Number Of Students Highly Interested In Attending A Higher Education Center/High Interest In Subject

Education 600 (35%) 217 (36%) 268 96 313

Business Administration 465 (27%) 174 (37%) 207 77 251

Criminal Justice 459 (27%) 178 (39%) 207 81 259

Health Care 451 (26%) 184 (41%) 199 82 266

Graphic Arts 450 (26%) 178 (40%) 199 80 258

Advertising 424 (25%) 178 (42%) 191 80 258

Engineering 373 (22%) 140 (38%) 168 64 204

Computer Programming 365 (21%) 138 (38%) 161 61 199

Cook/Chef 363 (21%) 150 (41%) 161 66 216

Hotel/Ski Resort Management 360 (21%) 132 (37%) 161 60 192 Nursing

358 (21%) 159 (44%) 161 71 230 Childcare and Development 354 (20%) 143 (40%) 153 61 204 Restaurant Management

349 (20%) 133 (38%) 153 58 191 Construction

345 (19%) 148 (43%) 145 62 210 Social Work

344 (19%) 127 (37%) 145 54 181 Automotive/ Service Repair

327 (18%) 151 (46%) 137 63 214

Secretary/Office Assistant 297 (17%) 133 (45% ) 130 59 192

Electrician 291 (17%) 124 (43%) 130 56 180

Carpenter/Millwright 268 (15%) 119 (44%) 115 51 170

Machine Repair 256 (15%) 110 (43%) 115 50 160

Welding 246 (14%) 123 (50%) 107 54 177

Dental Hygiene 231 (13%) 86 (37%) 99 37 123

Logging/Forestry 161 (9%) 65 (21%) 68 14 79

Plumbing/Pipefitting 135 (7%) 66 (48%) 54 26 92


The previous Table 6 indicates the number of students who would be highly interested in attending a higher education center given their occupational interest. It also projects student interest in the center for schools that did not return surveys based on those schools that did not respond. Education, Business Administration, Criminal Justice, Health Care, and Graphic Arts all had above 250 students responding with a high interest also in attending a higher education center. However traditional occupations such as Welding, Automotive/Service Repair, and Carpenter/Millwright had a sizeable amount of students (greater than 150 respondents) interested in attending such a facility As mentioned in the future economic conditions portion of this report, it is predicted that certain industries will be emerging in Sanilac in the near future. Once again these industries include: Personal Care & Service, Construction and Extraction, Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Occupation, Healthcare & Support, and Sales-Related occupations. Combined with the student data, it appears there is a correlating interest between the students having a high interest in occupations such as Nursing and Health Care and the general shift in the economy with the increase in Healthcare & Support Industry/ Healthcare Practitioners. Correspondingly, the Construction and Extraction industry has been gaining speed, with the students also demonstrating of a high interest in construction occupations as well.

Agriculture Agriculture was the second highest industry in terms of the number of currently employed students. Second to the food service industry, which had 28% of the student population employed, agriculture had 10% of students part-time employed. Agriculture is and will continue to be a main component of the economy, however, the way in which workers will participate in it will evolve over time. Such adaptations might take the form of getting a degree or certification, which would incorporate knowledge and skills of heavy farm machinery, or for example an Agribusiness degree.

Potential Benefits Offered by a Vocation/Technical Training Center Over 60% of the students responded with a high level of interest in the following benefits of a vocational/technical training center: Flexibility in class schedule (68%), Financial Assistance (66%), Qualified Faculty and Staff (61%), and Work/study opportunity (60%). Convenient location also ranked a high priority of the respondents (54%).

Distance Willing to Travel Students were asked how far they would be willing to travel to a vocational/technical training facility, if they were interested in obtaining such training. The available choices were: 0-5miles, 6-10 miles, 11-25 miles, and over 26 miles. 5% of students surveyed indicated they were willing to travel 0-5 miles to a training facility. 12% of students indicated they would be willing to travel 6-10 miles to a training facility. 34% of students indicated that they would be willing to travel 11-25 miles to a training facility. Lastly 49% of students in indicated that they would be willing to travel 26 miles or more to a training facility. These findings indicated that distance is not a factor with these given ranges. When asked how important a convenient location was in determining whether they would attend such a facility, 55% indicated that it was very important.


TEACHER SURVEY KEY FINDINGS Out of the 995 teacher surveys sent out, there were 175 respondents and 820 non-respondents, indicating a response rate of 18%. Demographically, the data shows that the mean age of teachers in the Sanilac region is between the years 41 and 45. The age bracket with the most frequent number of respondents was 51-55, which had 36 respondents (21%). Figure 4 shows the number of respondents with respect to their age.

Figure4: Age of Teaching Population: Respondents and Non-Respondents

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Figure 5 indicates the spread of teachers tenure in the field of education. 60 teachers (34.3%) had more than 20 years employed in education, 22 teachers (12.6%) had 16-20 years of employment, 26 teachers (14.9%) had 11-15 years of employment, 39 teachers (22.3%) had 5-10 years of employment, and 27 (15.4%) have less than 5 years of employment in the field of education.

Figure 5: Lenth of Employment: Respondents and Non-Respondents

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It is interesting to note that beginning teachers with 3-5 years teaching experience still havent received their professional certificate and must still complete 18 graduate credit hours. Whereas teachers who have already acquired their professional certificate only need to take 6 graduate credits every 5 years. Therefore due to the aging teacher population in Sanilac County, it is reasonable to assume that the demand for certification classes in the future will increase as a result of the new teachers replacing those who retire.


This trend can be seen in the level of educational aspiration for respondents. As indicated below in Figure 6, 78 teachers (44.6%) would like to obtain their masters, 20 teachers (11.4%) said they would like to obtain a doctorate, and 20 teachers (11%) are content with their Bachelors degree.

Figure 6: Educational Aspiration: Respondents

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Table 7 indicates the educational areas where the teachers have recently taken continuing education classes. Many of the teachers have recently taken Computer Science/Technology classes, which could indicate a future demand for such courses. The next strongest area of interest is Technological Education, followed by English, General Science, and Math. Some of the other classes not listed that teachers mentioned that they took were, Classroom Teaching, Counseling, Administration, Teaching Methods and Library Sciences. Although the General Education courses show a high and constant demand, newer educational areas such as Computer Science and Technology have a higher demand.

Table 7: Recent Courses Teachers Have Taken (Grouped by Age) Course/Training Less Than 45 Years Old Age 46 and Older Computer Science/Technology 33 (35%) 28 (35%) Technology Education 19 (11%) 17 (22%) English 19 (20%) 11 (14%) Special Education 9 (9%) 11 (14%) General Sciences 14(15%) 3 (4%) Social Studies 10 (11%) 7 (9%) Math 8 (8%) 8 (10%) Art 4 (4%) 5 (6%) Foreign Language 7 (7%) 1 (1%) Music 4 (4%) 4 (5%) History 2 (2%) 4 (5%) Physical Education/Health 3 (3%) 1 (1%) Industrial Arts 0 1 (1%) Other 21 (22%) 11 (14%)


Table 7 breaks up the teaching population into two subgroups; teachers less than 45 years old, and teachers 46 years and older. The rationale for dividing the population into 2 groups based on age was to determine whether different teaching generations have divergent interests in specific continuing education classes. The second column in the table shows the teaching population ages 21-45, which was composed of 95 teachers (54% of the teaching population). The third column represents the older teaching population, 46 and over, which had 79 teachers (45% of the teaching population).2 Starting in the second row labeled Computer Science/Technology, we see there are 33 teachers, or 35% of the population 21-45 years old, that have a high interest in continuing education in Computer Science/Technology. The third column indicates that the older teaching population had 28 teachers, or 35% of the older teaching population highly interested in Computer Science/Technology. These numbers indicate that both age groups have an equal interest in Computer Science/Technology. However, data concerning Technology education class interest showed a generational gap between the older and younger teachers. The older population of teachers had 17 respondents, 22%, indicate a high interest in Technology education classes, where as the younger population had 19 respondents, which was only 11% of their teaching population, indicate a high interest. Most Technology education classes would include training on how to incorporate technology knowledge to classroom experiences using up-to-date resources such as Microsoft Excel and Powerpoint. The older population had a higher interest in these types of classes. This may be a result of the younger population already having sufficient knowledge due to recent college education or growing up with the emerging technology. Other educational training classes, such as English and General Sciences, also show a differentiation between the two age populations. As mentioned before by Figure 4, a large portion of the teaching population is reaching retirement, indicating that younger teachers will become more abundant. Due to this factor, focusing on the needs of the younger teachers might be one course of action. Table 8 on the next page describes the same data as table 7, however, it includes what the demand would be if the non-responding teachers had indicated their preferences. The example of Technology Education can be clearly seen from this data. The older teaching population would have 100 teachers interested in Technology classes, where as the younger teachers would only have 68 respondents interested in Technology classes. Also, as previously mentioned, this table also confirms the diverging interests in General Science and English classes. The younger population would have 108 teachers interested in taking English classes whereas the older population only had 64 teachers interested. Accordingly there would be 80 younger teachers interested in continuing general sciences classes, where as only 18 older teachers are interested. 2 There was one survey that chose not to respond to the question regarding their age, which explains the discrepancy in the percentages.


Table 8: Recent Courses Teachers Have Taken (Grouped by Age)

Course/Training Survey Respondents Less Than 45 Years Old

Portion of non-respondents less than 45 years old

Total population of less than 45 years old

Survey Respondents Age 46 and Older

Portion of non-respondents age 46 and older

Total Population of age 46 and Older

Computer Science/ Technology

33 (35%) 155 188 28 (35%) 132 160

Technology Education

19 (11%) 49 68 17 (22%) 83 100

English 19 (20%) 89 108 11 (14%) 53 64

Special Education 9 (9%) 40 49 11 (14%) 53 64

General Sciences 14(15%) 66 80 3 (4%) 15 18

Social Studies 10 (11%) 49 59 7 (9%) 34 41

Math 8 (8%) 35 43 8 (10%) 38 46

Art 4 (4%) 18 22 5 (6%) 23 28

Foreign Language 7 (7%) 31 38 1 (1%) 4 5

Music 4 (4%) 18 22 4 (5%) 19 23

History 2 (2%) 9 11 4 (5%) 19 23

Physical Education/Health

3 (3%) 13 16 1 (1%) 4 5

Industrial Arts 0 0 0 1 (1%) 4 5

Other 21 (22%) 97 118 11 (14%) 53 64


Figure 7: Educational Aspiration

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The data concerning the grades taught and the educational level aspired were graphed to visually present the trend found. It can be asserted that certain groups of teachers feel more highly pressured for certification requirements and educational advancement than other groups. Grade levels Pre-K through 5 had a lower level of response for teachers aspiring to obtain their masters. For instance the first grade teachers had 4 respondents indicate they want to acquire their masters, the fourth grade had six respondents do the same, and the fifth grade had eight. It is noticeable that the higher the level of education taught, the stronger the interest in taking continuing education classes to obtain their masters. Grades 6-8, middle school, continues this trend, with the number of respondents wishing to obtain their masters increasing noticeably. In the sixth grade 13 respondents replied positively to wanting their masters, 19 in the seventh grade, and 20 in the eighth grade. The number of respondents who wanted their doctorate also starts to become visible: one respondent in the sixth, 2 in the seventh, and 3 in the eighth. When the high school teachers (grade 9-12) were surveyed, fixed with the ongoing trend, the responses significantly increased in regard to wanting their masters or doctorate. In the ninth grade 45 teachers wanted their masters, in the tenth 46 teachers, eleventh 49 and twelfth had 47. In response to acquiring their doctorate degree, there were 14 teachers in the ninth grade, 13 in the tenth, 14 in the eleventh, and 16 in the twelfth indicated that it was an aspiration.


Distance When the respondents were asked about the distance they were willing to travel to obtain additional educational or accreditation training 79 teachers (45.1%) said 21-40 miles, and 54 teachers (30.9%) said 40+ miles, with only 31 teachers (17.7%) only willing to travel less than 20 miles to a facility. Their responses to whether they would be willing to take a shuttle bus to a regional education institution yielded 49 yes (28%) and 113 no (64.6%). Those who answered yes to the later question said the most amount of money they would be willing to pay each way was 3 dollars.

Potential Benefits Offered by a Vocation/Technical Training Center Teachers responded to those benefits that addressed time management and compensation for their time. 150 teachers (85%) indicated that they place a high level of importance of the flexibility of class hours. Therefore, due to rigorous teaching schedules that can often include teaching, administrative meetings, and coaching, teachers would need scheduling to accommodate their already busy schedules. Night courses, summer courses and weekend courses should be taken into consideration. 141 teachers (80%) indicated that they place a high level of importance on tuition reimbursement. 114 teachers (65%) indicated a high level of importance of compensation for time spent in class.


EMPLOYER SURVEY KEY FINDINGS

Overall Interest Interest in the establishment of a higher education center was high among employers. 81.5% of employers surveyed expressed medium to high interest in a training facility and 59.3% expressed high interest. Out of the employer respondents, 88.9% said they would encourage employees to use a training facility, if available. The employers in the region seem very willing to utilize such a facility.

Interest by Geography The majority of businesses surveyed were based in Sanilac and Lapeer counties, 37.5% based in Sanilac and 27.8% in Lapeer. Of the 13 out of 36 business locations that had employees exceeding 70, 5 (38.5%) were from Sanilac and 3 (23.1%) were from Lapeer. The majority of large business locations are also based in Sanilac and Lapeer Counties, which means the largest potential sources of students for a training facility would be in these two counties. Employers with a medium to high interest in a Vocational and Technical Education facility were cross-tabulated with the primary counties in which their employees reside. The result was a majority, 59.3%, of the employers with medium to high interest in a training facility identified Sanilac as a primary county for employee residence, and 37.0% of employers identified Lapeer as a primary county of employee residence. A logical location for the facility would include Sanilac County, because both business locations and employee residences are located there.

Interest by Industry A majority (63.0%) of employers surveyed were in the manufacturing sector, 14.8% of employers were in the service industry, 14.8% were in health care, and 7.4% identified other. When asked from which sector employers hire their employees, 74.1% said manufacturing, 40.7% said automotive, and 33.3% said construction. Emphasis on a manufacturing related curriculum with automotive and construction components is indicated by the results of the employer surveys.

Employment Barriers The Figure 10 shows the percentage distributions of barriers to recruiting and training employees ranked at medium to high importance.


Figure 10: Barriers to Recruiting and Training Employees

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Upon examination of the data provided by the Sanilac County employers, it is evident that barriers exist for the recruitment and training of employees. Employee skills and education level are a main deterrent in the area of recruitment, but a lack of formalized training and information about available vocational programs also plays a significant role in inhibiting the recruitment process. Recruiting qualified and skilled employees is essential for area businesses to build a quality workforce. Figure 10 outlines those barriers most pertinent to employers, ranked at medium to high importance by a majority of employers. The Table 9 below shows a more detailed analysis of the five highest ranked barriers.

Table 9: Five Highest Ranked Employment Barriers

Barrier Percentage Ranking As Medium To High Importance

Poor Employee Attendance And Punctuality 85.2 Lack Of Technical Skills 85.1 Low Employee Educational Level 81.4 Lack Of Prior Employment Or Experience 70.3 Lack Of Educational Facilities To Supply Trained Employees 66.6

As Table 9 indicates, Poor Employee Attendance and Punctuality is listed as a high concern of employers. Selected coursework at a higher education center not only would address work related skills, but also issues such as attendance and punctuality. The center would educate and reiterate the importance of these issues, as well as other topics that relate to work ethic. Other barriers to recruitment that employers found equally important were lack of technical skills, and low employee educational level. One of the main functions of the Center would be to raise the level of employee skills and education in the Sanilac County Region. The seminars and classes provided by the center could help alleviate problem areas such as these. Lastly, lack of prior employment or experience, and lack of educational facilities to supply trained employees also concerned the employers. Although it is not possible for the center to specifically address the


problem of prior employment, the hands on experience that the students will receive would strengthen future employment applications.

Subject Area Demand The Figure 11 shows the percent distributions for high interest levels in the top ten subject areas of interest to employers who had specified they would recommend the use of a Higher Education Center

Figure 11: Distribution of Employer Reccomendations for High Subject Area Interest

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The five most demanded subject areas are Machine Repair, with 50% of employers expressing high interest, Engineering (50%), Computer Programming (45.8%), Welding (37.5%), and Business Administration (37.5%). These results follow closely with the results from interest by industry. There is a correlation between interest in machine repair and engineering subject areas and the large proportion of manufacturing-related companies. This reinforces the importance of industrial and manufacturing related job skills in the region. In addition to direct skilled labor is a high interest in indirect skilled labor as evidenced by the interest in Computer Programming and Business Administration. The general pattern indicates a high demand for technical skills.

Employer Assistance Table 10 below shows the percentage of employers who were willing to offer specific types of assistance for employees who were enrolled in a vocational/technical training center.

Table 10: Percentage of Employers Willing to Offer Assistance Type of Assistance Percent Help Defray Costs 88.9 Allow Flexible Hours To Permit Attendance 66.7 Pay For Employee Time Spent In Class 25.9 Offer Incentives (i.e. Vacation Time, Bonuses) 14.8


As indicated in Table 10, the most widely accepted type of assistance is help in defraying training costs (88.9%). Such a large percent of the employers responding positively to helping the employees pay for the costs indicates a high level of interest in the center for employee training and education. Allowing flexible hours to permit attendance is the second highest concession employers are willing to make. Employers are willing to assist employees who are enrolled in a vocational/technical training facility, but will limit it to those who require the assistance. This may reflect the attitude of area employers as expecting and needing skilled labor, rather than merely rewarding employees who happen to be skilled.

Higher Education Center Assistance The Figure 12 shows the percentage distribution of employers who ranked certain types of assistance a higher education center could provide at a high or medium level of importance.

Figure 12: Importance of Vocational/Technical Center Assistance

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Further analysis of this data reveals, as shown in the following table, flexible class scheduling and convenient location are top priorities, where as job recruitment seminars and transportation assistance dont seem to be an issue. The five most important types of service and or assistance that employers look for in a higher education center are located in the Table 11 below.


Table 11: Top Five Most Important Forms of Assistance

Type of Service/Assistance Percentage of Employers Ranking

Service/Assistance at High Importance Flexible Class Scheduling 74 Convenient Location 66.6 Financial Assistance 62.9 Input Regarding Courses/Training 62.9 Computer Access 55.5

Flexible class scheduling and a convenient location remain important for employers, showing a trend in the importance of successful integration of a vocational/technical training center with normal work hours. Employers want to use a training facility, but emphasize the importance of not letting the attendance of such a facility interfere with the normal operations of the company. Flexibility in scheduling and location should be a high priority in facility planning to accommodate these needs.

Healthcare Sector Special attention was paid in the employer survey to the healthcare sector due to its potential as a sector of high growth in the region under study. Of the employers who identified their industry as healthcare, 2 had 100% expected growth rate in their organizations within the next decade. The following chart shows a distribution of percentage of healthcare employers expecting any kind of growth in a particular position over the next five years.

Figure 13: Percentage of Employers Expecting Growth Over the Next Five Years

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Our results indicate projected growth in nearly every healthcare position over the next five years, concurrent with the predicted growth in the healthcare sector overall. Table 12 below ranks the top five most heavily demanded healthcare positions in terms of projected growth in number of employees over the next five years.

Table 12: Top Five Positions in Projected Growth

Position Rank Registered Nurse 1 Nurse Assistant 2 Licensed Practical Nurse 3 Rehabilitation Therapist 4 Assisted Living Specialist 4

There is a very high demand in the numbers of Registered Nurse, Nurse Assistants, and Licensed Practical Nurses to fill positions over the next five years, which seems to indicate a pattern of high demand for medical support staff. This may reflect a shortage and growing demand for nurses in the region that follows closely with the national trend in shortage of nursing staff. Additionally, the relatively high number of assisted living specialists needed may signify a growing number of retiring elderly in the region that require assisted living. Correlations between employers who identify with the healthcare sector and employer attitudes and assistance for a vocational/technical center were indicative of the general trend. All of the employers in healthcare responded they would encourage employees to use a Higher Education Center, if available. A majority of healthcare employers said they would allow flexible hours to permit attendance and help defray costs associated with a vocational/technical training center (both 75%). Healthcare employers also expressed disinterest in offering incentives (75% against) and paying for employee time spent in classes (75% against).


Discussion of Results and Recommendations

ENROLLMENT

Table 13: Projected Enrollment

Conservative Estimate

Moderate Estimate

Optimistic Estimate

Total Enrollment High School Students 508 678 762 Non-traditional Students 98 307 422 Teachers 173 231 260 Employees 316 493 669 Total 1095 1709 2113

The projected enrollment for the student population is between the ranges of 508-762, as indicated in Table 15. The data was derived using the following parameters: Out of the 847 students who indicated a strong interest in attending the center (calculated using data from both respondents and non-respondents), we took low, medium and high estimate to determine a conservative, moderate, and optimistic expectation on the amount of students that will actually attend the center. These estimates were calculated by using 60%, 80%, and 90% respectively. A similar methodology was used in calculating the projected enrollment for the teachers. The population of teachers (respondent and non-respondents) who indicated a high interest in taking educational classes at the center consisted of 289 respondents. Again 60%, 80%, and 90% of those teachers was calculated to determine the corresponding low, medium, and high projected enrollment numbers. The next stakeholders that the center would target are non-traditional students. A non-traditional student would be defined as those who attend classes but are not pursuing a specific degree, or those older than the typical college student. The estimated enrollment percentages were based on data taken from a study done by the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth on Michigan Community College Profiles (See Appendix P). The state level average enrollment for non-traditional students was 18% of the total enrollment population. That number was used to determine low, medium, and high estimates of projected enrollment for non-traditional students, which were 9%, 18%, and 20% of the total enrollment. Lastly, the projected enrollment for the employees were calculated based off the aggregate demand that the employers had for such a center. The data showed that 90% of employers would encourage their employees to attend such a facility. Therefore, out of the top 20 employers, 5%, 10%, and 15% of their employees (out of a total of 3529 employees) was determined for the different estimates of enrollment in the center. To account for the non-responding employers in the region, there was an 140 employee estimate calculated, which would provide an additional 140 students to the aforementioned scale (5%, 10%, and 20%) of total employees in the region that would attend the center.


CURRICULUM Surveyed students indicated a strong interest in attending a higher education center in the following fields: Education, Business Administration, Criminal Justice, Healthcare, Graphic Arts, Advertising, Engineering, and Computer Programming. These fields showed both a high interest in the occupation as well as a high interest in attending the center. It is particularly interesting to note that although traditional vocational/technical job training were less popular among students, those that expressed interest demonstrated a significantly higher interest in attending such a higher education center. Traditional vocational/technical fields that follow this trend include: Construction, Automotive/Service Repair, Carpenter/Millwright, Machine Repair, Welding, and Plumbing/Pipefitting. In order to meet the needs of a diverse student body, the Sanilac Higher Education Center must balance both student interest and demand in order to offer a successful curriculum mix.

Figure 14: Projected Student Enrollment

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sanilacregion_highereducationcenter

Documents

david leopold

mark johnson

operating plan

proposed curriculum

projected enrollment

project introduction

area boundaries