Wed. 20 Apr. 2011

FOREIGN POLICY The false hope of revolution in Syria ………………..………1

WASHINGTON POST Syria’s Assad, caught between reform and repression ………6 Syria: Another day, another massacre …………………….....8

WASHINGTON TIMES Turmoil in Syria resonates in Gaza ………………………...10

SYRIA COMMENT A Damascus Cameo ……………………………………..…14

VOICE of RUSSIA Russia welcomes Syrian move ……………………….…….18

PRAVDA President of Cebrapaz criticizes U.S. interference in Syria ..19

HAARETZ When will Israel, like Syria, lift its emergency laws? ...........21

YEDIOTH AHRONOTH Syria lifts state of emergency laws …………………………23

GLOBE & MAIL Syrians losing faith in leader as more protesters killed …….26

KANSAS CITY Why does the U.S. keep ignoring Syria’s villainy? ..............30

CNN Diplomats say Syria's al-Assad should act now ………..…..32

INDEPENDENT Fisk: Can Pres. Assad do to cleanse his corrupt regime? ......34 First repression then concession, but still revolt intensifies ..35

GUARDIAN Bashar al-Assad's strategy in Syria is self-defeating ……….39 Syrian regime may face its most dangerous moment yet …..41 Syria's muted Easter celebration …………………………...43

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HOME PAGEThe false hope of revolution in Syria Posted By May Akl Foreign Policy Magazine,Tuesday, April 19, 2011

More bloody days seem to be ahead for Syria. Security forces have apparently decided to crackdown on what they call "Salafist armed groups", while protesters who call themselves "freedom fighters" seem to have become bolder since the first Deraa incident. But in the euphoria of the so-called Arab youth revolution, assuming and even hoping that unrest in Syria will eventually lead to the collapse of the Assad regime is not only an unrealistic assumption, but a naïve theory betraying a faulty knowledge of the Middle East -- and specifically the dynamics of Syrian politics.

Similarly, assuming that the events unfolding in Syria are of the same nature as the ones that rocked the Arab world, and led to the collapse of dictatorships long supported by the West, is also a misreading of reality. The latest April 10 ambush against a Syrian army patrol in the coastal town of Banias is proof that a Jihad-like approach is a force behind the movement demanding reforms. Despite atrocities the regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain perpetrated against freedom demonstrators, there was no significant act of violence against national armies in these countries. More importantly, to be able to conduct such a successful ambush killing nearly 10 troops, one needs to be armed, organized, and well-trained. Indeed, this scenario does not resemble anything we are witnessing in the above cases.

In the context of these leaderless revolutions that stemmed from rightful social, economic, and political demands, the only organized and well-structured group has been the Muslim Brotherhood. For 83 years now, the aim of this widespread movement has been to instill the Quran and Sunna as the sole reference for ordering the life of the Muslim family and state. Whether it will finally succeed in doing so by claiming to embrace the hopes and dreams of the Arab youth is not to be ruled out. As

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such, the real beneficiaries of Arab regime changes are yet to be discovered.

While this theory has yet to be proven in Tunisia, Egypt, or Yemen, it is easier to note in Syria, where the last Muslim Brotherhood uprising was brutally crushed by Hafez Assad in Hama in 1982. But the Brotherhood in Syria, under claims of demanding reforms, does aim at overthrowing the Syrian regime. The latter has been struggling with the international community for quite some time now. And although deeply shaken by the investigation into Lebanon's Hariri assassination, the Assad regime has managed to survive tough years from 2005 until now. All of these ingredients make Syria's story a more complex and delicate one.

On April 1, a few days after the beginning of turmoil in Syria, and while on a visit to Turkey, the secretary-general of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood, Riad Al-Shaqfa, in a joint press conference with the Brotherhood's political chief, Mohamed Tayfur, said repeatedly that they didn't believe Syrian President Bashar Assad would carry through with promised reforms and predicted that protests would continue (the two men also reportedly called on the Syrian people to take to the streets). The statement proved so diplomatically costly for Turkey that its foreign ministry issued a statement a few days later, making it clear that the country did not adopt calls for instability in its neighboring country, even if such sentiments were voiced from its capital: "It is impossible for Turkey to tolerate and to approve any initiative which will harm the reform will of friendly and brotherly Syria and disrupt its stability along this critical period."

Earlier, at the end of March, Qatar-based Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi, a fan of Nazi anti-Semitism who has said that Hitler was "Allah's divine punishment for the Jews", incited Sunnis in Syria on an Al Jazeera broadcast sermon to revolt against the Assad regime, and said that Assad was "a prisoner of his own religion." Giving the Syrian unrest a religious identity, it was not

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much of a surprise when, on April 1, Qaradawi further described demonstrators in Syria as "Jihadists."

Put in such perspective, the dynamics of the Syrian uprising are radically different than elsewhere. To the surprise of the Syrian authorities, cities where relatively significant demonstrations were held were not mainly Sunni strongholds or regions known for their historical abhorrence of the Assad regime. These demonstrations happened in multi-religious areas like the province of Deraa, considered to be the reservoir of high-ranking Baath military and state officials, such as the vice-president Farouk al Sharaa. This shows that the uprising seems to be fed by pockets of protesters rather than by a large popular movement. While in Tunisia, the largest popular protest gathered nearly 10 percent of the population, the largest combined protests in Syria have amounted to barely one percent of the population. Indeed, the so-called opposition essentially failed to mobilize the Syrian population.

This might be due to the fact that the Syrian people have not yet forgotten the Hama massacre and that they have not yet managed to break the barrier of fear. But that is harder to understand since, if there was a good time to break the barriers of fear, it would be now -- with the domino effect sweeping across the Arab world, and with a Syrian regime already partly ostracized by the international community and struggling to restore good international relations. And when freedom is so badly sought as we have witnessed in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, oppression does not stop the crowd. Various "Khaled Said" phenomena are only supposed to fuel large-scale public anger rather than hush its voice.

But just as popular revolutions cannot be stopped, they cannot be provoked, either. As such, the groups that masterminded the Syrian turmoil might have placed a wrong bet, as their assumption that the Syrian people would be quick to join them has not been borne out in fact. Ultimately, this failure could be what motivated them to resort to other tactics -- such as the ambush -- which are

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more likely to make these groups lose their credibility as democratic freedom fighters and foster instability.

If the fear factor is only partly responsible for preventing a fully-fledged revolt in Syria, then the Syrian people must be apprehensive of another possible reality: the unknown of a post-Assad period. As it stands, most Syrians simply think that there is no better alternative to the current regime. Despite its history and much contested policies, Syria is -- pragmatically speaking -- a country that has managed to maintain its political stability in the region. It is an indisputable key player in the region: no solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to the situation in Iraq, or to the crisis with Iran or Hezbollah can be conceived without the involvement of Syria, one way or the other. This strength has fostered a nationalist feeling throughout the country. Further, Syria is a secular country where minorities are protected, and as much as they might want to see a regime change in their country, the majority of Syrians cannot accept their country becoming another Iraq -- in terms of security -- or another Saudi Arabia -- in terms of religious rule.

Another factor is that the Syrian people are generally proud of, and have high hopes for, their president. It is true that they are dismayed at the high level of corruption surrounding the president's old guards, but they do believe that he can make gradual change (which he has already started) with economic reforms to be followed by the recently announced new wave of media and political reforms, in addition to today's commitment to lift the 48-year-old emergency law. As such, they can view a gradual and smooth opening of the Syrian political system as a better and safer guarantee for a regime transition -- even as this remains a long-term project.

At the regional level, the fall of the Assad regime is very likely to have critical consequences on neighboring countries. From Turkey to Israel, going through Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, this fall would mean a radical alteration of the political, and more importantly religious, map of the Middle East. The question lies in whether

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these states want to see Syria fall into the hands of the Brotherhood.

At the international level, policy-makers should be able to learn from their mistakes, especially in the U.S. In its bid to cut its losses when the oppressive and corrupt regimes it supported for so long fell apart, the U.S. found itself obliged to let go of their old allies and embrace the people's movement. But in Syria, such a movement does not exist.

While exhorting Arabs to embrace reforms, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced last Tuesday that President Barack Obama would lay out a U.S. policy toward the Middle East and North Africa in the coming weeks. Hopefully, this policy will for once refrain from falling prey to its own rigid categorization -- to the black or white approach -- and rather try to understand the subtleties of situations in different contexts. Hopefully, it will also acknowledge the fact that democracy and people power can actually be used as a cover for extreme groups to access power. Indeed, extreme Islam does not always come with a turban; sometimes, it comes with a tie.

After all, Clinton hinted in late February that the U.S. administration would not oppose the arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt. It would have been more accurate to say that the US won't be able to do anything to oppose the Brotherhood's arrival to power since the group is so involved in the Egyptian people's uprising. But it would be outrageous -- to say the least -- to think that in Syria, the U.S. position will be aligned with that of Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi; unless American realpolitik sees al-Qaradawi as a "reformist" and "freedom fighter" opposing the "dictatorship of Bashar Assad".

May Akl, a 2010 Yale World Fellow, is the press secretary of Lebanese MP Michel Aoun.

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Syria’s Assad, caught between reform and repression By David IgnatiusWashington Post19 Apr. 2011,

With his regime hanging by a thread, Syria’s President Bashar Assad faces two interlocking challenges this week that will determine his political fate: He must somehow calm the centers of protest, and he must convince the public that he means what he promised about reform.

Given Assad’s blunders since the “Arab Spring” began, U.S. officials doubt he can succeed on either and predict that the wave of protests will continue.

Assad’s immediate challenge is to restore order in Homs and Latakia, two regions where protests have been tinged by violence between Sunni Muslims and Alawites, the sect from which Assad and his ruling elite are drawn. U.S. officials have received reports of gangs patrolling the streets in Homs, for example, and they estimate that between ten and 30 people have been killed in sectarian incidents there last weekend. These attacks raise concerns about the kind of Sunni-Alawite bloodbath that Syria-watchers have long feared.

Assad must somehow stabilize these hotbeds of protest without killing large numbers of civilians. His likely strategy will be to saturate the Homs and Latakia governorates with army troops. But the army’s presence will be challenged by protestors, creating an existential crisis for the regime: A massacre would trigger a popular uprising that would split the Syrian army and bring on a bloody combination of revolution and sectarian war.

Amnesty International said Tuesday morning that about 200 Syrians have died since the protests began -- a grim number, but nothing like the total that could emerge if the situation dissolves into all-out suppression and revolt.

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If Assad can somehow calm the centers of protest (and that’s a big “if”), he must give some substance to his promises about reform. On Tuesday, Assad lifted Syria’s emergency law -- the basic legal tool of his dictatorship. But how does he take the next step of engaging the opposition in political dialogue?

For a regime that has crushed the opposition for more than 30 years, it will be difficult to find credible people with whom to talk. That’s the price of dictatorship: In suppressing political dissent, you close off potential escape hatches.

Let’s assume for the moment that Assad actually is ready for reform (as some of his advisers say, but the record so far belies). Who should he engage in dialogue? Syria-watchers suggest lists of names, some of them fairly close to the regime, others fiery opponents. The lists include Riad Seif, a dissident Sunni businessman who has been imprisoned by the regime; Abdulsalaam Haykal, a Sunni entrepreneur who maintains contact with the reform-minded wing of the regime; Michael Kilo and Fayez Sara, two opposition journalists who were imprisoned, and Ibrahim Hamidi, the Damascus bureau chief of London-based al-Hayat newspaper who has contacts with both the regime some dissidents.

In any political outreach, Assad would be wise to include opposition figures from Homs. Two prominent names are Burhan Ghalioun, a professor of sociology at the Sorbonne, and Tayeb Tizini, a professor of philosophy at the University of Damascus.

The Syrian opposition in the streets hasn’t produced its own leaders or a clear agenda yet, and much of the organizing has come from mosques. This influence could be seen in the list of demands presented to Assad by local leaders from Deraa, in southern Syria, where the protests began. The last three items called for reversal of the ban on teachers wearing the full veil known as the niqab, segregation of the sexes in primary schools, and a Muslim satellite television station.

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To try to appeal to conservative Muslims, Assad has closed gambling casinos and reversed the ban on the niqab.

Assad’s problem, from the earliest days of the Arab Spring, has been to find a way to get ahead of the protestors. Like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, he began with a harsh, unyielding speech, followed by waves of concessions that have failed to convince the public he really wants reform. U.S. officials believe the protests are likely to continue, with no obvious way for Assad to stop them.

One anti-reform factor has been Syria’s close relationship with Iran, which fears a return of its own “Green Movement.” Though the Iranians have made statements aligning themselves with protests in Egypt and Tunisia, U.S. administration officials say they have recently sent Syria tools for suppressing protest, including tear gas, anti-riot gear such as batons, and surveillance technology.

Either way, repression or reform, Assad faces a dangerous future.

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Syria: Another day, another massacre By Jackson DiehlWashington Post,19 Apr. 2011,

Reports are coming in of yet another episode in which Syrian security forces have opened fire on a crowd of peaceful protestors. Which raises the question: What will it take to move Western democracies to respond to the serial slaughters of civilians by the regime of Bashar al Assad?

The latest bloodshed took place Tuesday morning, this time in the city of Homs, where thousands of people had occupied a central

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square Monday night, pitched tents and vowed to remain until their demands for political change were met.

This was an act of extraordinary courage, since at least a dozen people had been killed Sunday in the city of 700,000 by the security forces. And it appears to have prompted another massacre.

Information is fragmentary, because Syria has prohibited foreign journalists from entering the country and done its best to censor the Internet. But reports from residents gathered by the BBC and a video posted on YouTube indicate that security forces stormed the square in the early morning hours, firing on the crowd with automatic weapons.

"Listen to the shooting," once caller told the BBC. "Can you hear it? It's hammering on us like rain.” The death toll was uncertain, though one BBC correspondent was told eight had died.

Mass shootings of civilians by security forces are becoming a near daily event in Syria. In the southern town of Daraa, where the protest movement began last month, there have been multiple massacres, including one on April 8 in which gunmen opened up on a crowd marching with olive branches, killing 27. There have been similar episodes in the city of Banias and in several nearby villages. And these are just the ones that human rights groups have been able to document.

All together, considerably more than 200 people have been killed by the regime. The government mixes its repression with empty promises of change: Hours after the latest shootings Tuesday it announced that it was lifting a decades-old emergency law. But opening fire on crowds was not permitted even under emergency rule. There is no indication that it will stop now--unless the regime is toppled, or comes under severe international pressure.

In nearly every instance where state-sponsored murder on this scale has taken place in recent years, the United States and other

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democracies have reacted strongly. Uzbekistan’s massacre of protestors in the city of Andijon in 2005 led to a rupture of relations with Washington and the European Union. And NATO has intervened in Libya to protect civilians from Moammar Gaddafi.

Yet the response to Assad’s bloodshed has been limited to rhetoric. President Obama called the shootings in Daraa “abhorrent” and a White House statement said last week’s attack on Banias was “outrageous.” But the administration has refrained from taking even diplomatic measures to express its dissatisfaction, such as withdrawing the U.S. ambassador in Damascus. It has failed to bring Syria’s case before the UN Human Rights Council--not to speak of the UN Security Council.

Syria, mind you, is not a friend of the United States. It is Iran’s closest ally in the Arab world, and a sponsor of the Hezbollah and Hamas militias. For years it provided a transit route for suicide bombers headed to Iraq in order to kill American soldiers. It tried to secretly build a nuclear reactor with the help of North Korea.

Yet even when faced with extraordinary human rights crimes--the repeated gunning down of unarmed protestors--the Obama administration remains passive. At first this response was puzzling. Then it looked badly misguided. Now it has become simply unconscionable.

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Turmoil in Syria resonates in Gaza Many Druse like lifestyle under Israeli rule but back authoritarian AssadAmy Teibel Washington Times (original story is by the Associated Press)19 Apr. 2011,

Druse in the Israeli-held Golan Heights have been turning out in thousands in shows of support for Syria's president as he faces anti-government protests.

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But the pro-reform wave stirs mixed feelings for the 20,000 Druse, who never stopped seeing themselves as Syrian but have grown up used to freedoms under Israeli rule.

Few members of the Druse, members of a tight-knit community who belong to a secretive offshoot of Islam, will speak out against Syrian President Bashar Assad - possibly fearing for family members on the other side of the border.

The community has gone out of its way to show public support. A rally in the Golan recently drew thousands of Assad backers to the village of Majdal Shams, where the main square is dominated by a sculpture featuring Sultan Pasha Atrash, a legendary Druse warrior who led Syria's battle for independence from France and other powers in the last century.

There have been no protests backing Mr. Assad's opponents.

Still, even if residents hold emotional and family ties to Syria and no love for Israeli occupation, there's little sign of eagerness to live under Mr. Assad's regime, 43 years after Israel seized the strategic Golan from Syria.

One prominent figure in the Golan community acknowledged that reverting to authoritarian Syrian rule is problematic. Many, he said, like their lifestyle under Israeli rule.

Yet "they still feel a sense of belonging to Syria," he said. Like many residents, he spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing trouble with authorities.

The strategic plateau, which overlooks northern Israel, has remained quiet in an otherwise volatile region since the 1973 Mideast war. Its pleasant weather, rugged scenery, ski resort, farms and wineries make it a popular tourist destination for Israelis.

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The Druse have had peaceful and profitable interactions with Israelis. They speak Hebrew and sell Israeli goods in their stores. The overwhelming majority of Golan Druse were born after the Israeli takeover, and fellow Druse in Israel proper are so well integrated that - unlike most of Israel's Arab minority - they often serve in the Israeli army.

Israel captured the Golan from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War, annexing it 14 years later in a move that has never been internationally recognized. Syria demands the Golan's return as part of any peace agreement, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he is unwilling to go that far.

In public, at least, the community has rallied behind Mr. Assad, whose regime has been shaken by weeks of unprecedented anti-government protests. Human rights groups say more than 100 people have been killed in a government crackdown.

Mr. Assad's supporters here insist the reports of unrest in Syria and a brutal government crackdown are overblown.

"What we are hearing [from people in Syria] is everything is as usual there, nothing serious is going on," said Ata Farkhat, a 39-year-old reporter from the Golan who works for state-run Syrian TV and Syria's Al-Watan newspaper.

He said he spent three years in an Israeli prison over his ties with Syria.

A large stone replica of Syria's coat of arms - a hawk holding a shield of the national flag - dominates the outer wall of Mr. Farkat's home in Bukata. A book by Mr. Assad's predecessor and father, Hafez Assad, sits in the bookcase. A photo of the younger Assad hangs on the wall.

Some here will gingerly address Syria's problems - while carefully attributing them to the people who surround Mr. Assad and not the

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Syrian leader himself. They'll even speak favorably of reform, albeit only under Mr. Assad's rule.

Not all downplay the repressiveness of one of the most authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.

"I'm in favor of democracy," said one 30-year-old man. "I can say here, 'Bibi Netanyahu is no good.' Can I say that about Assad?"

But opinions like this, stated openly, are fairly rare.

Israeli listening stations capping local mountaintops are stark reminder that this plateau, verdant and bursting with flowers in the springtime, has been occupied territory for nearly 44 years. The Syrian town of Quneitra is easily visible from a road leading to the Golan Druse communities on the foothills of Mount Hermon.

Some previous Israeli governments have been willing in principle to cede the Golan to Syria in exchange for normalized relations and control of a vital water source, but several rounds of talks have failed to clinch a deal - whether over details or cold feet on either side. The most recent round of talks broke down in late 2008.

Mr. Netanyahu, who took power the following year, has said he is ready to talk peace with Syria, but opposes a full withdrawal from the Golan. He has much popular support for that among Israel's Jewish majority, which views the plateau as a bulwark against potential Syrian aggression.

Unlike the far more numerous Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the Druse Arabs of the Golan have had peaceful relations with Israeli authorities and the 18,000 Jewish settlers who also live on the plateau.

The good ties have prompted small Israeli concessions.

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Since 1988, Druse clerics have been allowed to make religious pilgrimages to Syria. Hundreds of Druse students are allowed to attend college in Damascus on the Syrian government's tab.

For the past seven years, Israel has allowed the Druse to export apples to Syria. This year, a record 12,000 tons went out, according to Said Farkhat, who coordinates the transfers from eight apple-packing operations on the Golan.

In another concession, brides and grooms living on opposite sides of the border are allowed to marry. Druse brides, however, are not permitted to visit families back home.

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A Damascus Cameo writer's name not mentionedSyria Comment,April 17, 2011

The Syrian turmoil is a surprising and challenging experience for Bashar and his governmental disciples. Over the last few weeks, Damascus has witnessed immense and eager protests in support of the current regime, while reports of uprisings calling for freedom, release of political prisoners and ends to corruption also spring in different quarters of cities all over Syria including Damascus. Security personnel have shaped the response to these pro-freedom rallies with the use of weaponry and brutality. Media notarization of the events has also been curtailed by the state; many foreigners in Damascus are seen as conspicuous agents propagating a falsified image of the turmoil in Syria. Further, the state and Syrian media have continually declared that foreign media in hand with foreign and sectarian entities have created plots to spark unrest in civil society. Thus, the blame has continually been on external agents whom would benefit if the country were to go up in flames and see the dynasty and the Arab heart of the Middle East crumble. Syria’s defiant position against Israel and America

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validate its argument for many Syrians, especially those in Damascus.

The pro-Bashar spirit in Damascus is a force to reckon with. There are numerous reports that these protests are fabricated by the state, however, it is undeniable that many of the populace abide and adore their current president. Many believe he is a true reformer but the governmental parameters of his operation impede his ability to rejuvenate Syrian economy and society. It is also factual that many configurations to Syrian society have developed since his inception of the presidency in 2000; examples can be the economic liberalization policies that have allowed many to thrive economically with the opening of international banking and investment services and free trade economic agreements with its neighbors. These reforms have loosened the formerly nationalized country and it has opened up a platform of modernization and liberalization of Syrian society. Hence, many of the peoples whom have gained from these policies and reforms glorify and applaud the president in face of the restrictive experience they witnessed under his father, Hafez Al-Assad.

On the other end of the spectrum, these pro-Bashar rallies also evoke a sense of persuasion, coercion and sense of fear. In the streets of Damascus since the past Friday, many cars honk and blast nationalistic songs, almost all commercial spaces have attached posters and flags of the president to show their loyalty. If you are not part of the festivities, it somehow radiates you in the space. As an example, many block main streets by parking their cars horizontally, thereafter the people start to dance, chant and hold flags to show their belonging to the presidency. Thus, all the congestion and all the parades are deliberately trying to remove people from the vehicles and join them for their theatrics; it becomes an imposition. A young Damascene who was driving in the streets discussed during an evening where the major rallies were going on for Bashar, some protesters slapped posters on his car and gave him flags to carry or attach on his car because his vehicle was lacking these pro-regime artifacts.

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On Tuesday the 29th of March, all Syrian schools, public and governmental agencies, and members of the public were given the day off to join in on the protests that were summoned as the day of Bashar, hundred of thousands of people came to protest in Damascus, Aleppo and Homs in jubilation of the regime and president. This governmental strategy presents a deliberate measure taken by the government to force people to take part in the protests; further, the Syrian media and officials alike hail these protests. This was the day before Bashar’s first public speech due to the unrest.

For the last week on a daily basis the Syria channel has been showing a urban diary of cities all over Syria, where people continually advise and discuss that matters and processes in the city as all very normal and everyone is devout to the regime, and that they patronize those victims of these external forces or ‘devil whispers’ as the Syrian TV channel described. The Syrian channel continuously proposes that this unrest is only due to sectarian and foreign agents trained to create unrest in Syria. Groups from Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, America, Palestine and Iraq have been blamed for trying to create instability. A recent article published by SANA, the Syrian news agency, discusses that Amir Bandar, the former Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to America, and Jeffery Feltman have financed and created a organized plot to overthrow and destabilize the Syrian regime.

Foreign media is also seen as another agent that is exaggerating and creating malfeasance to the Syrian stability. As an example, On the 29th of March pro-regime protesters threatened to storm the Al-Jazeera news building in Damascus if they were not shown on the Al-Jazeera screen because, according to them, the news agency was not showing a just picture of the happenings because they are in much appreciation and diligence to the current regime. On the 16th of April, yet again many Damascenes gathered outside Al-Jazeera news stations offices in Damascus and claimed these media corporations are creating sedition and subversion about the events in Syria. Al-Arabiya and BBC Arabic are also targeted as propagators of the events in Syria.

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It is clear that Syria is at a divide now, although the commonality between these divisions held is reform. Many people in Damascus are very much in support of the regime but there are many questions about their honesty in the way they showcase it. As an example, the student rallies that happened at Damascus University were all wearing black hooded sweaters, but underneath the sweater students wore t-shirts that read “we love you Bashar”, in this manner if security was to come to detain and disperse the student protesters they would show them the t-shirts which would provide security with no reason for imprisonment or abolishment of the protest. Certain measures taken by the regime have enforced people to partake in these rallies to solidify the regime’s position, further, the extensive use of nationalistic artifacts and symbols has also created a sense of you are with or against the regime. The word on Damascus streets is that if a person is to be part of the planned protests, they are considered against the regime and an enemy to the stability and position of Syria. It is clear a policy of divide and conquer/control is being implemented here. Syria has continually advised that unrest is due to external agents but there is also a certain strategy that is creating a sense of brainwashing and mainstreaming the population into propaganda media and belief that is only fostering divisions and challenging the harmony of Syria. Many billboards and posters have surfaced all over Syria warning of sedition. One particularly interesting poster is one warning people of men posing and hoaxing as Syrian security personnel whom are shooting at civilians. Others read “no to disturbance and all for Syrian unity”.

It is quite undeniable that now the majority of people in Damascus resent those protesting. A Syrian local said “I hope 500 die or even 1,000, how dare they challenge our country and be a victim of these plots to demonize Arabs”, he later added “If they give me a choice I would have no problem killing these shaabi (popular) animals, I cannot believe they dared to come in and walk in al-sham (Damascus)”. Protesters from Douma, a Damascus suburb, tried to march all the way into the center of Damascus to reach Al-Abassiyeen Square on the 15th of April, this march aggravated

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many people in Damascus. He lastly added how was John McCain able to prove that on Friday many protests were to be held in cities all over Syria in his announcement on Thursday the 15th, this statement only combusted to the wide-held Syrian belief that the unrest is a planned external strategy. Many now believe, even anti-government or pro-freedom lobbies that Syria is under threat of armed groups that have been able to mobilize clashes in Syria, maybe not at the start of the events but have infiltrated along the month of Syrian instability. Al-Tayar il Mustaqbal, a political Sunni group from Lebanon has been declared by Syrian officials as smugglers of weapons and sending trained people to trigger upset in the Syrian street. Further, other reports of Khaddami loyalists have influenced the dynamic events of Baniyas, Khaddam’s hometown. Syrian media and TV channels are persistently showing footage of weapons and people that Syrian security apparatus has recovered since the inception of the unrest; most of it validating external forces is shaping up the unfolding events in Syria.

The picture gets more perplexing when the flow of information is curtailed and expelling of journalists is a common tactic. The main fright in Damascus, whether anti or pro government, is if the Muslim Brotherhood was to take precedence in the governing sphere. Given the volatile history between the Muslim Brotherhood and the general restrictive operation of Sunni Islam under the Assad dynasty, this alarm is substantiated. The lack of transparency and ongoing complexity of the turmoil make the mood eerie and paranoid, as there is a major lack in defining or understanding the events in Syria. Everyone hears various opinions or facts about the unrest, “it leaves everyone conscious that they are manipulated and part of a massive propaganda machine”, as one humble Syrian citizen said.

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Russia welcomes Syrian move The Voice of Russia,20 Apr. 2011,

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Russia welcomes the lifting of the state of emergency in Syria by the authorities, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Earlier, in a telephone conversation with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev the Syrian leader Bashar Assad announced his intention to implement reforms.

On Tuesday the Government of the Middle East country approved a draft decree on the termination of the state of emergency.

The state of emergency was introduced after the Arab Baath Socialist Party came to power in 1963.

A bill has been prepared for the President to sign, which regulates the holding of peaceful demonstrations.

Now demonstrations will have to be sanctioned by the Syrian Interior Ministry but will be allowed.

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President of Cebrapaz criticizes U.S. interference in Syria Pravda,20.04.2011

Last Monday evening (18), political leaders gathered in the Syrian Arab Club of Sao Paulo to celebrate the 65th anniversary of independence of Syria.

During the event, the president of the Brazilian Center for Solidarity and Struggle for Peace (Cebrapaz), Socorro Gomes, criticized the interference by agents of Israel and the United States "in order to destabilize the country, attacking the government of President Bashar al-Assad and artificially creating tensions and conflicts within the borders of Syria."

Socorro Gomes also defended Syria's role in building peace between Arab peoples. "The firm position of principle and the

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defense of its sovereignty, of peace, a just solution to international conflicts and solidarity towards the Arab brothers (...) gives the Syrian government and people recognized respect and a connection between the peoples around the world," he emphasized.

During his speech, Socorro also warned that U.S. imperialism wants to prepare a more favorable environment for a military aggression against Syria. But, he said he was confident that the Syrian people will know to give a fair and appropriate response to "attempts at destabilization."

Beside the councilman of the PCdoB, Jamil Murad, Socorro mentioned the actions that occurred during the Lula government, such as implementing the initiative of the Summit of South American and Arab Countries, that now have continuity with the government of President Rousseff. "Syria was the first Arab country to be visited by President Lula," he recalled.

Finally, the review highlighted the opinion of Cebrapaz in relation to the conflict affecting the Syrian people. "We have an anti-imperialist position in defense of world peace and unrestricted solidarity for the attacked people. We express our solidarity to the people and government of Syria in defending their self-determination. We are onvinced that imperialism is not invincible, and the day of our victory approaches. Imperialism will be defeated and then we will open a new page in human history," he added.

Crisis scenario Since March 18 Syria has been the scene of opposition demonstrations across the country that are requiring political reforms. At least 30 people were killed and 90 wounded in the last two days during the riots and armed clashes that occurred in the Syrian city of Homs, which intensified in the early hours of Tuesday (19), the opposition group "the Revolution Syria."

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The Syrian Interior Ministry statement described the incidents of recent days in Homs and in the neighboring Banias of an "armed rebellion" carried out by armed groups and organizations that want to establish an Islamic emirates, said the official news agency SANA.

According to the statement, these radical groups have murdered members of the army, police and civilians, and have attacked public and private property.

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When will Israel, like Syria, lift its emergency laws? A state of emergency allows a government to bypass regular legislative processes. It bestows upon the government broad powers that infringe on civil liberties. By Aluf BennHaaretz,20 Apr. 2011,

At the heart of the uprisings in Arab states is the demand to rescind emergency laws that confer governments sweeping security powers, and seriously infringe upon civil rights. Yesterday Syria's President Bashar Assad surrendered to protesters' demands, and annulled emergency laws that had been in effect in the country since the Baath coup in 1963.

Emergency law in Israel long predates its institutionalization in Syria. Four days after the state's establishment in 1948, the acting government declared a state of emergency, which remains in effect. Israel effectively adopted the state of emergency that had been declared by the British Mandatory government nine years earlier.

A state of emergency allows a government to bypass regular legislative processes. It bestows upon the government broad powers that infringe on civil liberties. These include the power of administrative detention, seizure of land, arrest of infiltrators, and

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limitations on the rights of terror suspects. In Israel's improvisational style, numerous writs have been issued under emergency law guidelines for the monitoring of goods and services. In such case, the emergency law was used not because of any real concerns about state security, but rather for bureaucratic convenience.

In addition to laws that are meant to be implemented in times of declared emergency, such as various anti-terror measures and the law for the prevention of infiltration, Israel's security forces have broad powers under the 1945 "defense regulations," which were carried over from the British Mandate. These regulations can be implemented even when a state of emergency is not formally declared. They confer to security forces "draconian deterrence and punitive authority, including powers of seizure and confiscation, right of search and entry, the right to impound vehicles, censorship powers, the right to demolish homes, declare curfews, and more" (from "The Constitutional Law of the State of Israel," Amnon Rubinstein, Barak Medina ).

By the 1990s, criticism leveled by jurists about the extension of the state of emergency led to a revision in the law, whereby the Knesset can authorize a state of emergency for a year. However, any extension beyond a year requires discussion and approval of the Knesset. Since this revision was adopted, the Knesset has mechanically approved the extension of Israel's state of emergency every year. The last time such renewal was authorized was June 14, 2010.

In Israel, unlike Syria, citizens are accustomed to living under a state of emergency, and there is no public or political pressure to rescind emergency law. It is hard to imagine an Israeli prime minister standing up in the Knesset and declaring the annulment of the country's emergency laws, on grounds similar to the ones cited by Bashar Assad last weekend: "The annulment of the state of emergency will strengthen the security of Syria, and promote security while preserving the dignity of the Syrian citizen."

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The Association of Civil Rights in Israel petitioned the High Court of Justice 12 years ago, demanding that the declaration of a state of emergency be overturned on the grounds that it infringes free speech, the right to strike, the right of assembly and other liberties. Whether or not we face an emergency, the Court's judges are acting as though they have time on their hands; they are still considering the petition.

The government has promised the High Court that it will act to "normalize" legislation in areas such as monitoring of goods and services. It has also drafted a new anti-terror law. Judges have reprimanded the government for the slow pace of emergency law revision, yet there is no sign that the High Court will decide on this petition in the near future, or that the state of emergency will be annulled.

And so Syria, by cancelling its state of emergency, has surpassed Israel. Perhaps that provides cause to revisit and review Israel's emergency laws, before the present declaration is automatically renewed by the Knesset on June 13th?

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Syria lifts state of emergency laws Bashar Assad grants protestors' key demand, approves new law allowing right to peaceful protests but warns protestors to back down. Demonstrators resume protests in Banias less than hour after announcement Yedioth Ahronoth (original story is by News agencies),19 Apr. 2011,

Syria's government approved lifting the country's nearly 50-year-old state of emergency Tuesday to meet a key demand of anti-government protesters, but opposition leaders dismissed it as an attempt by President Bashar Assad to claim reforms but maintain his hard-line rule.

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The blunt response suggested the month-old uprising could be entering a more volatile stage: protesters now aiming higher to seek Assad's ouster and his regime warning that the demonstrations must now end.

The announcement signaling the end of the much-reviled emergency rule came just hours after a show of strength by authorities. Security forced stormed an occupied square in Syria's third-largest city. Then officials issued a stern warning on national TV for the protesters to back down.

The ultimatum-style message appeared to show that ending emergency laws will not ease the increasingly harsh blows against opponents. Assad's regime has labeled the protest movement as an "armed insurrection" and a power grab by Islamic extremist - descriptions that could give authorities the cover to continue the crackdown.

Assad last week had told his cabinet to remove the state of emergency - in place since his Baath Party took power in March 1963 - but added that such a move would give protesters no more reason to take to the streets. This could give Assad further pretext to move against any further marches or rallies.

Syria's official news agency SANA said the cabinet also approved abolishing the state security court, which handled the trials of political prisoners, and approved a new law allowing the right to stage peaceful protests with the permission of the Interior Ministry. The changes need parliament approval, but no objections are expected at its next session planned for May 2. "Repealing the emergency law would do little to restrict the power of various security agencies because Syria has other laws that guarantee members of the secret police immunity for virtually any crime committed in the line of duty," said Mohamad Bazzi, a regional expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Protestors undeterred

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Less than an hour after the announcement, a pro-democracy demonstration erupted in the restive coastal city of Banias, which had witnessed an intense security crackdown last week.

"We want freedom!" chanted thousands of people in the southern city of Daraa and coastal town of Banias, according to witnesses.

"This (announcement) is all just talk. The protests won't stop until all the demands are met or the regime is gone," leading opposition figure Haitham Maleh, an 80-year-old former judge, told Reuters.

A prominent Syrian writer Yassin Haj Saleh, who spent 16 years in jail for his links to a pro-democracy group, claimed Assad was looking for a "maneuver to gain time" by removing emergency rule, which gives authorities almost boundless powers of surveillance and arrest.

"They are basically telling the people, `We have fulfilled your demands, so go home and if you don't will break your head,'" he told The Associated Press by telephone from Beirut. "But in reality nothing will change."

US unsure about draft lawThe United States is unsure that Syria's draft law to lift emergency rule will be less restrictive, a State Department spokesman said on Tuesday.

"It's unclear whether they've passed legislation to lift the emergency law, but that a new law requiring protesters that - to receive permission from the Interior Ministry before holding demonstration may be - may be in play here," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.

In light of some of the comments from Syria's interior minister, "this new legislation may prove as restrictive as the emergency law it replaced," Toner said.

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Toner also said that violence overnight by soldiers firing on protesters continued "to raise serious concerns and it remains clear that the Syrian government needs to urgently implement broader reforms and ... to cease violence against peaceful protesters."

Most of Syria's 23 million people were born or grew up under the strict control of the state of emergency that, among other things, puts strict control on the media, allows eavesdropping on telecommunications and permits arrests without warrants from judicial authorities.

The regime had claimed the reason for the emergency rule is because of the technical state of war with archenemy Israel, but rights groups and others say it was mostly used to as the backbone of the authoritarian system. Earlier on Tuesday, it was reported that Syrian security forces opened fire on hundreds of anti-government protesters staging a sit-in, shooting live ammunition and tear gas before chasing them through the streets for hours. Witnesses reported four were killed in the clashes.

They shot at everything, there was smoke everywhere," an activist in the central city of Homs told The Associated Press by telephone, asking that his name not be used because he feared for his personal safety. "I saw people on the ground, some shot in their feet, some in the stomach."

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Syrians losing faith in leader as more protesters killed PATRICK MARTIN, MAJDAL SHAMS, GOLAN HEIGHTS— Globe and Mail Tuesday, Apr. 19, 2011

Call it the Syrian two-step: one step forward, one step back.

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First, the newly appointed Syrian government announced Tuesday it had endorsed a decree to end the country’s reviled emergency law, in place since the Baath Party came to power in 1963. No sooner was that done, when its Interior Ministry announced it had banned all street protests that don’t have the permission of the ministry.

The good-cop/bad-cop routine is wearing thin as Syrians begin to doubt whether President Bashar al-Assad can provide the kind of reforms called for in protests across the country. Where once there was hope in the relatively young ruler, aged 45, people now believe he must change the behaviour of his security forces.

Early Tuesday, those forces opened fire to disperse thousands of protesters in Homs, where 17 people had been killed Sunday night. Human-rights activists said at least three more people were killed.

That brings to more than 150 the number of protesters killed in the uprising that began March 15. Some groups put the number at more than 200.

Announcing the decree to end the emergency law and to regulate the right of peaceful protest, Information Minister Adnan Mahmoud said: “This will reinforce security and will protect the dignity of the citizens.” The right to protest, he said “is similar to those in place in most countries of the world, particularly in European countries and the United States.”

Even before the announcement was made, however, Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim al-Shaar undercut the measure, declaring Syrians must “refrain from taking part in all marches, demonstrations or sit-ins under any banner whatsoever.”

He warned that if demonstrations were held, “the laws in force in Syria will be applied in the interest of the safety of the people and the stability of the country.”

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Syrian Druze patrons at a popular main street restaurant here in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights shook their heads in dismay as they watched the announcements on Syrian TV.

“The latest incidents have shown that ... armed Salafist groups, particularly in the cities of Homs and Banias, have openly called for armed revolt,” the announcer said, quoting another Interior Ministry statement.

The announcer went on to say that “armed criminal gangs” had killed a Syrian security commander and his two children, and had “mutilated” the bodies.

Then, surprisingly, the Syrian newscast displayed two of the bodies, with the camera slowly panning over the commander and one of his children, lingering over their multiple bloody wounds.

Hisham, a businessman, reacted angrily: “Maybe one person is killed, alright, but the regime kills thousands of people, and thousands more are in jail.”

“If you want your pride, you have to fight for it,” he said.

“I support Bashar,” acknowledged Kassem, a local shopkeeper, “but the killing has to stop. They’re killing our own people.”

With foreign journalists barred from entering Syria at this time, the citizens in this community of 10,000, about 50 kilometres southwest of Damascus, provide a glimpse into how Syrians are viewing things. While a well-guarded frontier prevents easy movement into Syria proper, the people here have family and friends on the other side and view themselves as Syrian.

“We have to stick with Bashar,” insisted a young man who declined to give his name. “He provides us [Syrian Druze in the Golan Heights] with scholarships – 30 of them every year.”

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“If Bashar goes we’ll end up with the Muslim Brotherhood [running Syria], and we’ll get nothing.”

“No,” said Munir, an apple farmer. “He’s got to go. Bashar is the king of corruption. There won’t be real change as long as he’s in power.”

Doesn’t Munir worry about the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood coming to power?

“If it’s democratic, and they win, give them a try,” he answered.

Salman Fakhriddin of al-Marsad, the Arab Centre for Human Rights in Golan, explains that most people in this tightly knit community oppose the Syrian regime’s oppressive treatment, but say they haven’t given up on the regime itself.

“Some people genuinely believe in it,” he says, “others fear it.”

Mona, who runs a small shop of children’s clothes, is typical. “I feel for the young people,” she said. “I want reform, but I want stability too.”

“Bashar still doesn’t seem to realize he’s in a crisis,” Mr. Fakhriddin said. “He’s selling old goods.”

“He has to cut off the branch he’s standing on,” Mr. Fakhriddin said, referring to the corruption that is endemic in the President’s family and among his fellow Alawites. “And then he has to try to hang on somehow.”

“Frankly,” he said, “I hope he can hang on, because there’s no organized opposition in the country. I can’t imagine what will happen without him.”

“Forget it,” said Hisham, speaking the kind of language that a lot of his friends in the café didn’t want to hear. “We’re the lucky

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ones to be occupied by Israel. It’s much better here than in Syria,” he said. “Long live the occupation.”

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Why does the U.S. keep ignoring Syria’s villainy? By JOEL BRINKLEYKansas City19 Apr. 2011,

Who’s the world’s most dangerous man?

You might think it’s Kim Jong Il, the psychopath-leader of North Korea who frequently blusters about using his half-dozen nuclear weapons. Or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the diabolical leader of Iran, sworn enemy of Israel and the West, working to build a bomb of his own.

Those two are obvious contenders. But my choice is Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s duplicitous dictator, precisely because he has duped presidents and prime ministers into believing he is their indispensable friend — even as he kills American troops, collects weapons of mass destruction and serves as the supply master for terrorist groups.

Even now, as his own people protest his rule, prompting him to shoot and kill scores of them, Washington’s criticism remains equivocal. A few days ago, President Obama remarked, “I strongly condemn the abhorrent violence committed” by “the Syrian government.” Then he added: “I also condemn any use of violence by protestors.” Are both sides equal offenders?

A few weeks ago, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Assad is entirely different from Moammar Gadhafi, the embattled Libyan leader: “many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.”

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Less than a week after that absurd remark, Clinton’s own department told congressional leaders “the flow” of terrorists crossing from Syria into Iraq, intent on killing American troops, “has lessened, though not ended.” (Embarrassed, Clinton’s recent statements have been tougher.)

Clinton is hardly the first senior official to be irrationally enamored of Syria. While secretary of state, Henry Kissinger famously remarked “there can be no war without Egypt and no peace without Syria.” Last month, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she told Assad, “the road to Damascus is the road to peace.”

Where do these delusional views come from? For years, Washington has worked under the premise that, while Syria is unquestionably problematic, it is at least stable. Another government might be worse — the “devil you know” rule of foreign policy.

But how could any new government be worse? Consider Assad’s extracurricular activities. Since the Iraq war began, Islamic extremists have crossed his border by the busload, in full view of U.S. spy satellites.

He sells missiles to Hezbollah, the terrorist group in southern Lebanon and avowed enemy of Israel and the U.S. Last month, Defense Secretary Robert Gates noted Hezbollah now “has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, more than most governments in the world” — all pointed at Israel.

Khaled Mashal, the Hamas leader, actually lives in Damascus and does his murderous business openly from a storefront. American intelligence shows that Syria has a vast store of chemical weapons. Assad pursued a secret nuclear-weapons development program, until Israel bombed it in 2007. More recent intelligence suggests that he is back at it, though this time the program is better hidden.

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So I wonder why Washington is taking such an ambivalent posture toward Syria’s uprising, even though Assad has lifted his emergency law. Compare Syria to the other states in turmoil. Egypt was Washington’s best friend in the region. Tunisia’s leader was praised for his cooperation with anti-terror investigations, as was Yemen’s. Libya gave up its nuclear and chemical-weapons programs at Washington’s urging. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

In fact, all of the other nations in play have tried to be American allies. To be sure, all of them have horribly oppressed their own people. But in recent years none has openly worked against Washington, as Syria does even now.

Why is Syria more dangerous than Iran or North Korea? The United Nations has multiple sanctions in place against the other two states, and numerous nations’ intelligence services are watching every move they make. Not so for Syria. In fact, Assad flaunts his contempt for Washington.

Last year, the Obama administration sent a new ambassador to Damascus, hoping to improve relations. The Bush administration had recalled the ambassador in 2005. Well, the very day after Obama made that announcement, Assad hosted a major, ceremonial state visit for none other than Ahamadinejad, the president of Iran. The timing was no accident.

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Diplomats say Syria's al-Assad should act now Elise Labott, CNN,April 20, 2011

Washington (CNN) -- Senior U.S. and Western diplomats say although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's recent speech on lifting the country's long-standing state of emergency struck a conciliatory tone and he has promised to lift the law, he now needs

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to implement reforms and stop his government's security crackdown.

The diplomats suggest that the range of reform options have struck a sweet spot that appeals to a healthy number of Syrians on the middle ground, who are eager for reforms but who do not necessarily want the regime out because they are afraid of the country falling apart. The balance might work for al-Assad, they say if he implements the reforms and avoids a massive security crack down.

Since he has agreed to make changes, al-Assad also indicated there is no need for further protests, and therefore any future demonstrations will require a permit. It remains to be seen what happens on the streets.

Syria's Cabinet passed a bill abolishing the country's notorious state-of-emergency law as another day of clashes erupted in the simmering country's heartland, Syrian media reported Tuesday.

Al-Assad has to give the final approval to the move, according to analysts.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Tuesday it is unclear whether there is legislation actually lifting the emergency law. He maintained a new law requiring protesters to obtain permits "may prove as restrictive as the security law it replaced." He also pointed to increased shooting at protesters by security forces, saying it raises "serious concerns."

The diplomats say while the al-Assad regime is brittle and his Allowite power base is thin beyond a narrow band of loyalists, there has been no turning against the government by the major security services as happened in Cairo, when Egyptian police eventually left the streets. However, the diplomats predict if things don't go back to normal, the security services might get tired and some of them will inevitably give up.

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The envoys see this week as key for al-Assad to deliver on his promises and implement the reforms. If by the end of the week he does not, they expect renewed momentum behind the protests.

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Robert Fisk: Can President Assad do what it takes to cleanse his corrupt regime?Independent,Wednesday, 20 April 2011

"People are looking for security forces who will not treat the people like animals." So said Daeiri el-Eiti last night, a Syrian activist, summing up the thoughts of his country. He was right. In Banias, in Latakia, in Homs, in Aleppo, in Deraa, even in Damascus itself, it is the same thing. As a friend of Bashar al-Assad, the President, said last night, "Bashar is like Fukushima. He is irradiated."

Is this true? Can this be the end for the Ba'ath party of Syria, the very end of the "Renaissance Party" of the country which Bashar's father Hafez supported? Is this the end of the Syrian security forces? It seems incredible, but it looks as if all Bashar's dutiful offers of generosity – an end to the state of emergency, for example – have failed. There are those in Syria who say it is over, that there is nothing Bashar al-Assad can do to save his regime. We shall see.

The security forces – and we shall use the word "security" in quotation marks from here on – are fearful. There are long histories of torture and executions behind them and there are many within the military security apparatus inside Syria who are fearful of a riposte. For many years, the torture regime has imposed the most terrible revenge upon opponents of both the President and his father. There was the "German chair" which broke the back of opponents and there was the "Syrian chair" which broke their backs more slowly.

The current President knows all this and has tried to bring it to a halt. Largely, he has been successful. His regime has largely

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proved to be humanitarian. But he has not been a successful leader. In his desperate attempts to persuade Syrians that he can control his country, he has accused America, France and Lebanon of being responsible for the violence of demonstrators in his country.

Nobody in Syria believes this. The idea that Lebanon – let alone America and France – can cause demonstrations is ridiculous.

The problem lies, as Mr Eiti says, in that Syria remains a dictatorship and that Assad remains a dictator. His failure to rid his own family of the corrupt men within it (I am speaking of his uncle in particular) is the main problem for the regime. This is not a Gaddafi-corrupted government. This is not a Mubarak government. This is an Alawi regime – and essentially a Shia regime – which has been corrupted by its own family. The Assad family knows what it must do to cleanse the family name. Can Bashar do it? Does he have the power to do it? This is all that matters now if he is going to save his regime.

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First repression then concession, but still Syria's revolt intensifiesBy Paul PeacheyIndependent,Wednesday, 20 April 2011

The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad yesterday bowed to the most serious and sustained challenge to his authoritarian grip on the country as his regime finally agreed to lift the 48-year state of emergency.

The concession – one of the key demands of demonstrators during weeks of protests against President Assad's 11-year rule – failed to placate opposition leaders, who described it as a sham designed to mask a continued brutal crackdown. To demonstrate legally they will still need permission from the Interior Ministry, and their

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concerns were heightened by the arrest of the leading opposition figure Mahmoud Issaa in Homs last night.

The cabinet decision, which still needs to be rubber-stamped by Assad, came after a warning broadcast on state television telling demonstrators to end sit-ins and protests. Rights groups said that at least 200 have been killed over the past month as the regime combined vague promises of reform with brutal tactics to quell unrest.

The blunt response from the opposition opened the prospect of a new, more volatile phase of protests. Demonstrators called for the ousting of President Assad in fresh protests last night with thousands chanting: "We want freedom!" in the southern city of Daraa and coastal town of Banias.

The announcement signalling the end of emergency rule came just hours after a show of strength by authorities in Syria's third largest city of Homs. Security forces fired on protesters staging a sit-in in the main square and chased them through the streets for hours. Activists said 17 were killed.

"They shot at everything, there was smoke everywhere," one told the Associated Press. "I saw people on the ground, some shot in their feet, some in the stomach."

The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, urged security forces to exercise "maximum restraint". He said the decision to remove the emergency law was a step in the right direction but it "is only one part of a wider package of necessary reforms. The Syrian authorities should do more to ensure the Syrian people experience real political progress without delay".

The events in Syria have strong echoes of other protests across the Arab world. In Egypt, belated concessions offered by Hosni Mubarak failed to pacify protesters who upped their demands and refused to move from Tahrir Square until he left office. Protesters in Homs on Monday brought mattresses, food and water to Clock

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Square and vowed not to move until the President was ousted, but they were driven off by security forces.

The Assad regime has labelled the protest movement an "armed insurrection" and a power grab by Islamic extremists. It has also been more successful than in Egypt in keeping foreign media away from protests.

Most of Syria's 23 million people were born or grew up under the state of emergency that, among other things, puts strict control on the media, allows eavesdropping on telecommunications and permits arrests without warrants.

As well as lifting the law, the cabinet also approved the abolition of the state security court, which handled the trials of political prisoners, and backed a new law allowing the right to stage peaceful protests.

"This is all just talk. The protests won't stop until all the demands are met or the regime is gone," the leading opposition figure Haitham Maleh, an 80-year-old former judge, said.

Q&A: Why will the West not act against Syrian authorities? When the UN decided to take action on Libya, it made the tough business of global diplomacy look easy: sanctions were swiftly imposed; overseas assets of regime figures were frozen; and, within days of UN Resolution 1973, French jets were raining missiles down on Colonel Gaddafi's tanks. But even as Syrian troops open fire on protesters and human rights groups warn that 200 people have been killed since the unrest began, Europe and the US – bullish on Libya just weeks ago – are keeping quiet.

Q. What has the West said about action against Syria? US officials have so far brushed aside calls for any foreign intervention. The Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said: "I don't think we have a single policy that fits neatly every single country [in the Middle East]", while Britain's Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, said last month: "It is not now the role of

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the international community to try and intervene directly in every country."

Q. Why was the UN so gung-ho about military action in Libya? Colonel Gaddafi's response to the uprising against his rule – unleashing tanks, heavy weaponry and air attacks on his own citizens – was ferocious. He managed to alienate his Arab allies, meaning the US and Europe could count on Muslim support for the operation, without which military action would have been unlikely. Crucially, says Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute, world leaders thought they had a good chance of swift success, with the early fighting appearing to favour the rebels.

Q. Why the caution over Syria? Any military action against Syria would be a far tougher prospect with far fewer benefits. With no Arab support, the West would risk further inflaming anger in the Islamic world. And despite his anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric, countries have found President Bashar al-Assad easier to deal with then his father, who ruled before him. Syria's neighbours would not be keen to see President al-Assad fall, immediately unleashing instability in Syria, especially given the presence of Islamist groups which could fill a void in the absence of any viable opposition parties.

Q. What are the practical barriers to military action? The US and European armies are bogged down in Libya, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq continue to be a drain on resources. And while Libya's main coastal cities are in easy reach of European military bases, Syria's location and geography present greater strategic problems. Its armed forces are also tougher and more professional than Gaddafi's. And although there have been deaths on the ground, the scale of the regime's crackdown may not be quite brutal enough for the West to risk another quagmire. "The number of deaths has to be matched by the prospect of success," says Mr Joshi.

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Q. What could the international community do next? Further economic sanctions against the regime would be the most plausible next step. The Washington Post, meanwhile, has cited diplomatic cables showing that US officials are funnelling money to Syrian dissidents, although the White House denies it is trying to stoke up unrest.

Q. What about Bahrain? As in the case of Syria, there are strategic reasons why the West is not keen on military action against Bahrain. It is home to the US Fifth Fleet and on a strategic sea lane from the Gulf oil fields. The US also worries that the fall of the Sunni government could lead to more influence from Shia Iran.

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Bashar al-Assad's strategy in Syria is self-defeating Syrians will not be won over by promises of reform from a regime that continues to kill protesters and spread disinformationBrian Whitaker Guardian,19 Apr. 2011,

The Syrian uprising, which began with small-scale protests just a month ago, continues to spread and grow.

On Monday, thousands gathered in the Clock Square of Homs, the country's third-largest city, hoping to emulate the Tahrir Square protests that triggered the downfall of the Mubarak regime in Egypt.

Shortly after 2am, however, Syrian security forces opened fire. How many people were killed or injured, and whether the shots were aimed directly at protesters or over their heads, is still unclear, but continuous shooting can be heard in videos posted on YouTube.

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Though some reports suggest the square was emptied overnight, an activist website has been calling for the protests to resume after midday prayers on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, one thing is very clear. The regime's double-edged strategy of cracking down hard on protesters (200 have reportedly died in the last month), while simultaneously promising reform, is not working.

The protesters seem undeterred by memories of the Hama massacre in 1982, which showed just how brutal this regime can be, and each new attack fuels their anger. Monday's protest in Homs was triggered by the deaths of 17 people in a protest on Sunday – and that protest in turn had been triggered by the death in custody of a prominent tribal figure. Deaths mean funerals, funerals mean protests and protests mean more deaths.

At the same time, the regime's efforts to blame the demonstrations on foreign conspiracies, armed gangs, sectarian elements, militant Salafists and the like, are self-defeating. Disinformation of that kind might have worked years ago when the state had total control over the media, but today its absurdity is far too obvious.

On the reform front, protesters have every reason to be sceptical of the president's promises: they have heard it all before and won't take it seriously unless or until it actually happens.

So far, President Bashar al-Assad has tried to appease Sunni religious elements by lifting a ban on the face veil in schools and announcing the closure of the country's only casino. He has also tried to tempt the marginalised Kurds by granting Syrian citizenship to many of those who are stateless – though they still seem unimpressed.

He has sacked the old government and replaced it with a new one, which may be a little better even if it does include a lot of old faces. The ministers have been instructed to talk to people and

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explain their policies to the public, but this is such a radical innovation that no one knows if they will be able to handle it.

Then there is the lifting of the 48-year-old state of emergency, which is promised for some time this week. Lifting the emergency, though, is contingent on new legislation to maintain Syria's security, and until the content of these replacement laws becomes known, it is impossible to say whether the result will be an improvement.

Considering how far Syria lags behind – it doesn't even approach the limited levels of freedom that existed in Mubarak's Egypt – and how often moves towards reform have stalled in the past, there is no real prospect of satisfying the demonstrators while Assad remains in power. As one resident of Syria put it in an article: "You cannot fix a fundamentally dysfunctional regime."

So the protests look set to continue. "From alley to alley, from house to house, we want to overthrow you, Bashar." But the crucial question is how. What, exactly, would it take to get Assad to step down? Might he not decide, like Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, to stay put in his palace come hell or high water?

The Baathist regime may indeed be dying, but its death throes could be long and painful.

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Syrian regime may be about to face its most dangerous moment yetBashar al-Assad's decision to ditch Syria's notorious emergency law is his biggest concession to protesters so farIan Black, Middle East editor Guardian,19 Apr. 2011,

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It is a truism of the "Arab spring" and other periods of sudden change in repressive political systems that the most dangerous moments are those when the regime starts meeting its critics' demands.

And the Syrian government's abrogation of its notorious emergency law represents Bashar al-Assad's biggest concession yet to the protest movement.

The step is all the more potent coming a day after trouble spread to Homs, Syria's third largest city, with thousands taking part in demonstrations that were violently crushed by the security forces.

It is true, as opposition activists have warned and Assad has confirmed, that new laws will maintain curbs on political freedoms. But the symbolic value of the change is still enormous. The planned abolition of the state security court is another big step forward.

Measures like this may buy time. Pro-regime Syrians – prickly about foreign pressure and nervous about change – are hoping Assad will ride out the protests, still not on the scale seen in Tunisia and Egypt. But it may all be too late.

Assad's capacity for change is not unlimited. State accountability is an alien concept – with no sign of an end to the law that gives the Mukhabarat secret police immunity from prosecution. Membership of the banned Muslim Brotherhood remains a capital offence.

Still, expectations that Syria's security dominated Ba'ath regime is about to fall look very wide of the mark. Assad might have done better to respond to the protests by scrapping the emergency law straight away. But his speech at the end of March was defiant, blaming foreign "conspiracies" for the popular rage that began in the southern city of Deraa.

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Appointing an unimpressive new government has proved no more effective – especially when the president is seen to dictate what his ministers should do.

"Nobody believes in these tricks any more," said Nadim Shehadi, a Middle East analyst at the Chatham House thinktank in London. "The game is up. It's a bit like divorce: once you see beyond marriage, then it all collapses."

Hafez al-Assad, others say, could get away with hanging tough. Bashar cannot, argues Mohamad Bazzi of the Council on Foreign Relations, "as he confronts a different and unprecedented type of pressure rooted in deep popular grievances".

Signs are that the regime is concerned by the widening spread and intensity of the protests but confused as it makes alternating promises of change followed by brutality by the security forces.

It was alarming to hear the claim by the government that it is facing an "armed insurrection" in Homs and Baniyas.

But the charge that the rebels are Salafists – fundamentalist Sunnis often equated with al-Qaida – who are bent on fomenting sectarian strife is even more worrying.

The regime can still get out the crowds to chant pro-Assad slogans. But it is not a sign of confidence that the catchiest of them – "Allah, Syria, Bashar, that's all!" – is borrowed from Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi is hardly an inspiring model.

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Syria's muted Easter celebration Easter is of particular importance to Christians in Syria, but the recent unrest means their traditional celebrations will be curtailedThomas McGee,Guardian,

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19 Apr. 2011

In the recent unrest, Syria's Christian population will be unable to celebrate Easter as they have for the last two millennia. Even in Aleppo – Syria's second city, which remains strongly pro government – public gatherings are viewed as highly sensitive. Christians make up 4% to 6% of the country's population, but the traditional Good Friday pilgrimage of seven churches – a ritual in the old Christian quarters – will not take place this year. This is in the interests of national security, considering that greatest instability tends to take place on Fridays, as people leave the mosque after morning prayer.

In addition, last Sunday saw the coincidence of Palm Sunday and Syrian Independence Day, celebrated on 17 March each year. Both events are a commemoration of triumphant liberation: the first fulfilling the prophecy of the Hebrew scriptures; the latter the emancipation from colonial rule.

"Unlike in the west where Christmas is the most celebrated event of the Christian calendar, in the Middle East greater prominence is given to Easter," explains Ann Jeanette S?ndb?, a specialist in Syrian theology. For the Syrian Orthodox – the oldest indigenous Christian community in Syria – she adds, "this is not some theatrical re-enactment. Rather, it is the immanent emotion of being party to Jesus's arrival in the holy city".

During the service, people congregate in the streets as close as they can to the overflowing churches. Syrian Orthodox are very concerned with physical presence and the material connection of the congregation. S?ndb? recalls how after the service, people returned to the streets to ceremonially burn the palm leaves in preparation for the next year's Ash Wednesday. "Besides the large bonfire, the crowd is physically united through the act of extending the light of one's candle to those of fellow worshippers. In addition to the couple of thousand people around each church, candles are taken home to share the ceremony with those would could not be present."

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In contrast, this year's celebrations were limited to the confines of the church. The liturgy – central to Orthodox spirituality – was shorter. The sermon included an official address on the subject of unity and security of the nation, a subject of added relevance on Syrian Independence Day.

Church officials are keen to stress that prudence in no way equates to a deterioration of relations between Christians and the state. "Of course we are all sad to have to limit our celebrations," says the archbishop, "but we hope that this will not last long. We consulted the government, but this was our decision. Nobody imposed it upon us. We are worried and adapting our celebrations shows that we feel whatever happens today also affects us."

As the Greater Syria (64BC - AD193) was the birthplace of Jesus Christ, Christians have a special relationship to the Syrian territory. They have, therefore, long been part of the fabric of Syrian society. In the modern period, some, such as the Syrian Orthodox Antun Saadeh, played influential roles in the independence movement. Since the 40s, they have often identified strongly with the nation, and in turn the Republic has offered them protection and accommodation.

Considering the sacrifices that must now be made by the Christian community, Malfonito Farida – teacher of theology and most renowned women in the Syrian Orthodox church – thinks back to the protests of the early 80s: "Occasionally our community comes under pressure," she reflects. "We are a people who remember our history; all good and all bad that has been done to us, we remember … We live this fear in our body and soul."

"Christians of this area are one people. We see from the circumstances of those in neighbouring countries that we will only be victims of such happenings."

Fear for the future of the community and frustration due to reduced celebrations may be natural reactions, but Archbishop

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Mor Gregorios Yohanna Ibrahim, of the Syrian Orthodox advises that "this is a time to reflect upon our situation. If I were to say I am not worried, I would not be truthful. Yet I am worried first and foremost as a citizen; not as a Christian." He adds: "The question today is not between religions."

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