Voting IntentionTracking Poll

Dec 2010

Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 13th – 15th Dec 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 19th December 2010 - Opinion Poll

 

Voter intentions crystallise as the election draws near

The announcement by the Green Party last month that they were to leave the government after the budget, means an election is imminent. While the exact date for the election is still somewhat unclear, it is clear to voters that an election will be held in the early part of next year. The clear impact among voters in today’s poll is that a previously perhaps uncommitted electorate is now beginning to crystallise their intentions.

The fact that voters are making up their minds is positive for any party that is seeing positive trends in support. However, it is a concern to any party that has seen significant declines in the last two months, as it suggests that the lower share achieved by both parties in this poll is more likely come the actual election.

Fianna Fail has seen their support decline from the low to mid twenties two months ago, down to the mid teens today. In the context of voters making up its mind this suggests they are doing so away from the party. Of more concern is that they are now also rejected by more of the electorate than any other party. In fact 3 in 5 people of those likely to vote, now say they will definitely not give the party any vote at the next general election.

It is certainly the case that those left saying they will give Fianna Fail their first preference vote are now more loyal than two months ago, but despite this 1 in 5 of those giving their first preference still state they may change their mind. Were all these voters to look elsewhere, the party could be left with just 13-14% of the first preference vote. The only solace for the party is that there might be a chance that some voters are “shy” about announcing their support to pollsters. However, our analysis suggest that at best the party may improve its share above the headline figures in this poll by just 2% if this is taken into account, leaving the party with a worst case scenario of 13% share and a best case scenario of just 19%.

Labour has also seen a decline in their fortunes over the past month, with their share falling back to 23%. However, the support they are left with now does appear to be a lot more loyal. Our analysis in October suggested the Labour vote was perhaps the flakiest of all parties at that time; but having lost some of that “flaky” vote to other parties, those they are left with appear to be much more loyal. The party also has the lowest level of outright rejection among the electorate than any other party, and as such do still have an opportunity to win over more voters.

Fine Gael fortunes are on the rise, as voters become more focused on an actual election. They remain the largest party in the state, and also have an upward trend in support over the past few months. Much is made of momentum in any election campaign and at present the party appears to have a steady upward growth in support. Their potential support is also the highest of any party, with over 60% saying they may potentially vote Fine Gael; while their loyal support is also the highest with 21% of all likely voters already saying they will definitely vote for the party.

The only results that Fine Gael will not be as happy with from this poll, is that the electorate are still not convinced on their ability to handle the economy. Just over 1 in 4 (26%) do have confidence in the party, and only just over half (51%) of their own supporters. A further concern is that more voters have confidence in Labour to handle the economy (29%), and only 1 in 10 of their supporters does not have confidence in them, with others unsure. There does appear to be something of a disconnect, in the previously found link between suggested voting behaviour and economic competence. However, it is vital for Fine Gael to further emphasise its ability to handle the economy, if only to hold on to supporters flirting with Labour.

Sinn Fein will also be encouraged by the gains they have made at this time, taking 14% first preference, given the election is now imminent. In the past we have seen support for the party receive a boost outside of an election campaign, which has often been seen as something of a protest vote. However, gains made at this stage are much more robust, as they are happening in the context of the electorate making up its mind.

The party also has the most loyal support, with 61% claiming they will definitely vote for this party, whatever happens between now and the election. While their potential voter base (the percentage of voters who say they may vote for the party) is also now higher than that of Fianna Fail. One note of caution for Sinn Fein however should be the polls at the last election, which showed them ahead of their final result, and persuading Sinn Fein supporters to actually get out and vote for them on Election Day, may be their biggest issue.

The Green Party will see little of cheer in this poll, with share down to just 2%. There is also as much negative sentiment toward the Greens, as there is towards Fianna Fail & Sinn Fein, with almost 3 in 5 saying they will not vote for them at all. Almost a quarter (23%) of the electorate does suggest that they may vote for the party, but this may not be enough to secure seats.

 

34%

17%

23%

14%

2%

10%

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

24%

30%

22%

10%

5%

9%

24%

33%

27%

8%

2%

6%

24%

31%

23%

10%

3%

9%

18%

32%

27%

9%

4%

10%

17%

33%

27%

11%

3%

8%

17%

34%

23%

14%

2%

10%

10%

6%

42%

27%

7%

5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/

Other

General election 2007

May 2010

June 2010

Sept 2010

Oct 2010

Nov 2010

Dec 2010

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

GE 0

2Ap

l 05

Sep-

05De

c-05

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr-0

6M

ay-0

6Ju

n-06

Jul-0

6Se

p-06

Oct-0

6No

v-06

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7GE

07

Sep-

07Oc

t-07

Nov-

07Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Se

p-08

Oct-0

8No

v-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9M

ay-0

9M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Sep-

09Oc

t-09

Nov-

09Ja

n-10

Feb-

10M

ar-1

0Ap

r-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Se

p-10

Oct-1

0No

v-10

Dec-

10

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

34%

23%

17%

Independent14%

2%

2006 2007 2008 2009

10%

2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

GE

07

Sep-

07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-

08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09

May

-09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

34%

23%

17%

Independent 14%

2%

10%

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT

Core figures

19th Dec 2010

Excluding undecided

2007 Election Results

% % %

Fine Gael 28 34 27

Labour 19 23 10

Fianna Fáil 14 17 42

Sinn Féin 12 14 7

Green Party 2 2 5

Independents/

Others9 10 6

Undecided 16

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

34%

23%

17%14%

10%

33%

22%19%

14%

2%10%

2%

Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters.If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

The Spiral of SilenceAssumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them.

To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election.

We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.

919 16 10 4

10

2928

129

8

13 15

810

13

15 18

1418

60

24 22

55 59

Attitude to Voting for this Party at Next General Election

FG%

FF%

Labour% %

Definitely Will

Most Likely To

Probably Will

Probably Won’t

Definitely Won’t

%

(Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900)

2920

3314

41

923 15

39

28

33

32

27

37

31

20

3252

3454

3254 46

65

Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties

LOYALWill definitely vote for that

party at next election

FG%

Oct 10 Dec 10

Labour%

Party 1st Preference

LIKELYWill probably vote for that party at next election, but

may change mind

FLOATINGNot sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party

seems the best of any

Oct 10 Dec 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Oct 10 Dec 10

% %

Which of the following Fianna Fail TD’s would be most likely persuade you to vote for Fianna Fail if that person was leading the party into the next General Election?

(Base: All Adults 18+ - 1,000)

(Q.1)

Brian Lenihan

Micheál Martin

27

5

7

13

23

25

Mary Hanafin

Brian Cowen

D/K

None of these

Fianna Fail Voters

Current Past Potential

33 32 37

28 25 23

12 16 14

20 9 16

4 14 5

3 4 5

All Adults

Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn(Base: All adults 18+)

15%16% 11%

12% 14% 18%

19%15%

13% 16% 17%20%

26% 23% 29% 27% 28% 23%

28% 28% 28% 32% 29% 28%

12% 18% 19% 13% 12% 11%Agree strongly

Agree slightly

Disagree slightly

Disagree strongly

Don’t know

Oct 2009

Feb 2010

Sept 2010

Oct 2010

25%

Dec 2010

Fine Gael Labour

Fine Gael/ Labour

26% 29%

I believe Irelands economy will improve during 2011 (Base: All adults 18+)

Agree

2426

212424

2122

2726

2324

301820

2639

192121

% AGREE

TOTAL

MaleFemale

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Fianna FáilFine Gael

LabourSinn Fein

Gender

PartySupport at last GE

Age

Disagree

22%

46%

Don’t know 32%

ABC1

C2DE

DublinROL

MunsterConn/Ulster

Social Class

Region

20%

24%

56%

I believe that the budget was fair, given the economic circumstances (Base: All adults 18+)

Agree

2931

2633

2726282831312928282831

4823

2917

% AGREE

TOTAL

MaleFemale

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Fianna FáilFine Gael

LabourSinn Fein

Gender

PartySupport at last GE

Age

Disagree

29%

52%

Don’t know 19%

ABC1

C2DE

DublinROL

MunsterConn/Ulster

Social Class

Region