sc po some-10-crowds
TRANSCRIPT
Social Media: Behind the Scenes2013 week 10
Online Crowds Fundamentals
context
fundamental structure of society
evolution
sociologyeconomicsmarketingpolitics
Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911)
Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911)
meteorology
statistical correlation
eugenics
questionnairessurveys
proto-geneticist
statisticianforensic
?
?787x
!
1,198 pounds1,197 pounds
Ask a friend
Ask the audience
65%
91%
January 28, 1986
Builds the shuttle
Manages ground support
Builds the shuttle’s fuel tank
Fuel and components
-6%
-5%
-6%
20min
-3%
-3%
-3%
-3%
-12%
end of day
monthslater
James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki
Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few
and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies,
Societies and Nations.
The Wisdom of Crowds
gnition
ordinationoperation
WisdomsCoCoCo
Coordination
Types of crowd wisdom
Coordination
Types of crowd wisdom
How groups of people can form networks of trust without a central system
Cooperation
Types of crowd wisdom
Thinking and information Processing
Cognition
Types of crowd wisdom
Crowd WisdomSine Qua Non
Diversity
Diversity
Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
Decentralization
Decentralization
People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.
Aggregation
Aggregation
Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.
Independance
Independance
People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.
FAILURECrowd Wisdom
Homogeneity
HomogeneityGroupthink
HomogeneityGroupthinka psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity results in an incorrect decision-making outcome.
HomogeneityGroupthinkLeads to loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking. Produces an "illusion of invulnerability" and significantly overrates the the group’s abilities in decision-making, and significantly underrates the abilities of their opponents
HomogeneityGroupthink
Pearl Harbor
HomogeneityGroupthink
Homogeneity
Blinder effect
People tend to only hear the voices of people they agree with and create feedback loops reinforcing homogenity within a group
Silo effect
Homogeneity
Left
Right
Finance
Marketing
Technology
Information cascadeAn information cascade occurswhen people observe the actionsof others and then make the same choice, independently of their own private informations.
Information cascade
• Decisions are made sequentially• Decisions are made rationally based on
the information available to each actor• Each node do not have access to the
information of other nodes• Action space is limited (yes/no/like/...)
Conditions of occurence
Information cascadeAggravating Factors• Low Weak link/Strong link ratio • Homogeneity of information sources • Homogeneity of position within network
Bandwagon effectPeople doing certain things because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override.
The perceived "popularity" of somethingmay have an effect on how it is viewed.
Bandwagon effect
Buzz
Centralization
Division
Emotionality
peer pressure
herd instinct
collective hysteria