Panel Discussion on Trends influencing Panel Discussion on Trends influencing Boaters, Boats and Boating of the FutureBoaters, Boats and Boating of the Future

CSBC Symposium: Gravenhurst, Ontario (Sept. 25, 2012)CSBC Symposium: Gravenhurst, Ontario (Sept. 25, 2012)

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Panel MembersAnn MacDiarmid, Founding Member of

Safe Quite Lakes, MuskokaSara Anghel, Executive Director/Vice

President Government Relations, National Marine Manufactures Association – Canada

Raymond Zee, President, Ontario Chinese Anglers Association

Peter Garapick, Superintendent, Marine Communications and Traffic Services, Canadian Coast Guard, Central and Arctic Region

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Our Plan for Next 90 minutes

Overview presentation on trends – 10 minutes

Panel member perspectives – 50 minutesDiscussion – 20 minutes Wrap up observations – 10 minutes

Opportunities StrategiesResearch needs

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Factors Shaping the Environment

What is happening now and what is driving the trends that will influence the future?

BoatersBoatsBoating environment

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Current snapshot: Boaters and boats(Pleasure Craft Operator Card holders and Pleasure Craft Licences – 2012: Source Transport

Canada)

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Current snapshot: Recreational Boating Fatalities (Source: Transport Canada)

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Current snapshot: Fatalities by vessel type

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Looking ahead: Canada’s Population Growth

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Looking ahead: Demographic Shifts

Underlying national population growth, many factors reshaping demographic make-up of Canada

Each province and territory, each community has a unique story

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N* - Northern Territories

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Destination

NF PE NS NB QC ON MN SK AB BC YK NT NU

Origin 10.9 3.6 18.5 13.7 27.4 74.4 17.1 24.6 75.3 59.7 1.8 2.3 1.2

NF - 0.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 2.6 0.3 0.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6

PE 0.1 - 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4

NS 1.4 0.6 - 2.5 1.0 6.0 0.4 0.4 4.2 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.3

NB 0.5 0.4 2.5 - 1.9 3.9 0.3 0.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9

QC 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.1 - 17.9 0.8 0.8 4.0 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 30.7

ON 4.3 1.2 6.6 4.1 16.0 - 5.3 4.8 20.6 17.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 81.6

MN 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 5.7 - 2.9 4.9 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 19.3

SK 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.0 - 10.7 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 20.7

AB 2.9 0.5 3.7 2.9 4.1 18.5 4.9 11.8 - 26.9 0.4 0.8 0.1 77.5

BC 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.6 2.7 14.5 2.8 3.1 23.1 - 0.6 0.2 0.1 50.3

YK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 - 0.1 0.0 1.4

NT 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 - 0.1 2.8

NU 0.1 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 - 0.0 0.2 - 0.9 Net gain/loss

(1.3) (0.9 ) 0.2

(0.7 )

(3.3 ) 7.2 (2.2 ) 3.9 (2.2 ) (9.4) 0.3 ( 0.5) 0.4

People on the Move: Interprovincial Migration 2009-2010Working Age Male

(Number in 1000s – Source: Stats Canada)

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An Aging Society: Age Pyramids - Canada

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But not everywhere: Age Pyramid – Nunavut Territory

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A Changing Society

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Top Source Countries: 2008-2010

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Age Pyramid: Permanent Residents (2010)

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Permanent residents:By age and source area (2010)

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Provincial perspectives: Growth scenarios for Ontario

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Provincial Perspectives: Growth scenarios for British Columbia

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Ontario and British ColumbiaDiversity and Settlement Trends (2006)

Within and between provinces, ethno-socio-cultural diversity differs substantially

In Vancouver and Toronto visible minorities moving towards 50% of population

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Diversity indicator Vancouver Victoria Kingston Oshawa Toronto Hamilton

Population 2,098

325

148.5

328.1

5,072.1

683.5

Visible Minorities

875

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8.6

33.7

2,174.1

84.3

% of population 42% 10% 6% 10% 43% 12%

Asian

799

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5.9

15.3

1,565.4

50.9

% of minorities 91% 83% 69% 45% 72% 60%

Back to the National PictureEconomic Realities

Disposable incomeHousing pricesSavings ratesUnemploymentConsumer confidenceFuel pricesAdult children living at home

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Changes in Leisure Activities (US perspectives)

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Mandatory education: More knowledgeable boaters on the water

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Mandatory education: Indicators of compliance

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PCOC Holders: DemographicsSource: TC Marine Safety, Pleasure Craft Operator Competency Program

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Boating Segments in the US: Our Canadian Equivalents?

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What’s happening with boat trends?Range of dimensions:

Who is buying what?Buying up/buying down?New boat sales vs. used boat sales?Boats on the move:

On a trailerAt the cottageOn the roof of the car

Rental market

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What’s happening on the water and in the water?

Weather - climate changeWater levels – up and downEnvironmental changes and shock impacts

(algae, invasive species)How are people communicating?Traffic trends

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Themes

New economic realities Population growth Aging population Immigration

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Themes

People on the move: interprovincial migrations

Growth of urban centresOutdoor recreation and leisure trendsDiversity of boatsChanges in communications and

technology

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And now to: Panel member perspectives Concluding views from panelists and Symposium

participants on: Opportunities Strategies Research needs

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