scarborough 2.0: strategy to build an economic powerhouse

Scarborough 2.0: Strategy to Build an Economic Powerhouse DAVE HARDY’S PRESENTATION TO SCARBOROUGH BUSINESS ASSOCIATION, FEBRUARY 8, 2017

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Why is a Strong Scarborough Economy Important?

• Reduced areas or no areas of poverty.

• Scarborough businesses and institutions are vibrant.

• Residents have secure, well-paying jobs.

• Children who get a skill, trade or university education can work locally.

• People have disposable income and a great quality of life.

• Property values keeping pace or rising and families are building equity.

• Makes a stronger City economy.

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Scarborough Characteristics

Total of 13,619 businesses in Scarborough

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190,320 employees

(2014)

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In 2016, Scarborough stats were positive. • Industrial land property taxes low.

• In the City of Toronto, property taxes per square foot for a typical new industrial building decreased from $2.98/sq. ft. in 2005 to $2.86/sq.ft. in 2015.

• Industrial property taxes/sq.ft. in Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton, are trending upward and may surpass Toronto, as Pickering did in 2013.

• No development changes. Source: City of Toronto Economic Dashboard, 2016, Toronto Employment Survey, Labour Force Survey

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In 2016, Scarborough stats were positive. • Industrial land lease costs low

at average of $150 square foot.

• Scarborough manufacturing employment is strong and has replaced what was lost in recession.

• Some employers are coming back to Scarborough from 905.

• Reasonably priced and accessible labour force.

Source: City of Toronto Economic Dashboard, 2016, Toronto Employment Survey, Labour Force Survey

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But we can do better….

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• Many small businesses. The top 8

have over 2000 employees. The next

23 have between 1000 and 2000

employees.

• Most have 0-5 employees.

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• Most businesses are Service

businesses (9,891)

• Retail Trade is the second

most common classification

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• Eating places and

Consulting

Services are the

most common

classification

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What are the larger challenges?

• Larger forces are always in play. • Energy costs.

• Labour costs.

• Immigration policy.

• Infrastructure investment.

• Canadian dollar.

• Trade agreements.

• Image of Canada and Canadian businesses on the international stage.

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What is holding us back? Other areas are benefitting from infrastructure investment and land availability

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Eastern GTHA Underperforming

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What’s the regional competition?

• Oakville/Trafalgar employment area

is viewed as the next Meadowvale

• Brampton West Employment Area

• Highway 7/404 employment area

continues to thrive

• Except for Seaton, less office growth

in GTA East

Sample Office Inventory

Nodes Total Inventory % of Total

Highway 407 / 404 9,443,385 sf 31.4%

Don Mills / Eglinton 4,204,372 sf 14.0%

Airport Corporate Centre 7,932,911 sf 26.4%

Meadowvale 5,749,065 sf 19.1%

Vaughan 1,966,345 sf 6.5%

Total 30,081,850 sf 100%

Other areas are successfully in developing employment lands.

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Regional competition?

Land available for employment.

• Some traditional land available

in Scarborough

• Seaton – 70,000 residents,

35,000 new jobs

• Scarborough needs to be

strategic.

Future Commercial Employment

Nodes Total Inventory

Seaton 12,000,000 sf

Downsview Park 230 ha

Vaughan Metropolitan Centre 1,500,000 sf

Highway 427 Enterprise Zone 1,000 ha

Highway 400 North 800 ha

Hamilton Airport Lands 700 ha

Scarborough 50 ha

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Tapscott has only greenfield land left in City

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Employment Concentration in Downtown

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Employment Concentration in Downtown

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Proposed Projects in Toronto Proposed Projects in the City of Toronto by Status

Built Active Under Review

Total in Pipeline

% of Total

City of Toronto 1,027 786 549 2,362

Growth Areas

Downtown and Central Waterfront 168 134 106 408 17.3

Centres 28 29 18 75 3.2

Etobicoke Centre 6 10 3 19 25.3

North York Centre 15 7 4 26 34.7

Scarborough Centre 4 1 0 5 6.7

Yonge-Eglington Centre 3 11 11 25 33.3

Avenues 156 143 141 440 18.6

Other Mixed Use Areas 61 83 57 201 8.5

All Other Areas 614 397 227 1,238 52.4

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Proposed Residential Units in Toronto Proposed Residential Units in the City of Toronto by Status


Total in Pipeline

% of Total

City of Toronto 86,605 118,610 106,135 311,350

Growth Areas

Downtown and Central Waterfront 31,378 50,075 37,700 119,153 38.3

Centres 7,071 12,500 7,621 27,192 8.7

Etobicoke Centre 960 6,196 378 7,534 27.7

North York Centre 4,772 709 2,641 8,122 29.9

Scarborough Centre 947 0 0 947 3.5

Yonge-Eglington Centre 392 5,595 4,602 10,589 38.9

Avenues 24,469 22,090 26,268 72,827 23.4

Other Mixed Use Areas 7,502 16,357 13,907 37,766 12.1

All Other Areas 16,185 17,588 20,639 54,412 17.5

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Proposed Non-Residential GFA in Toronto Proposed Non-Residential GFA in the City of Toronto by Status


Total in Pipeline

% of Total

City of Toronto 2,687,948 2,857,791 2,398,706 7,944,626

Growth Areas

Downtown and Central Waterfront 1,243,632 1,407,781 1,016,507 3,667,921 46.2

Centres 88,860 70,220 61,336 220,416 2.8

Etobicoke Centre 601 16,889 7,183 24,673 11.2

North York Centre 62,373 31,596 21,586 115,555 52.4

Scarborough Centre 2,221 4,141 0 6,362 2.9

Yonge-Eglington Centre 23,666 17,593 32,567 73,826 33.5

Avenues 455,842 302,284 305,253 1,063,379 13.4

Other Mixed Use Areas 33,553 226,000 170,081 429,634 5.4

All Other Areas 866,061 851,686 845,529 2,563,276 32.3

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What’s the strategy?

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Leverage Ontario’s Strengths

• Ontario will be in the pole position among provinces in 2017 with a growth rate of 2.3%

• Hot housing market expecting to slow down, making property more affordable

• Provincial and Federal infrastructure programs will surge to $17.4 billions in fiscal 2016-2017

• Ontario added 71,000 new jobs during the first 11 months of 2016

• Ontario is expected to add another 70,000 additional jobs in 2017

• Unemployment rate was at a six-year low of 6.3% as of November 2016

• Trump effect?

Source: RBC Provincial Outlook December 2016: Ontario

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Leverage the GTHA’s and GGH’s Strengths GTHA and GGH 30 Year Growth Estimates

Population

• Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) increasing by almost 3.0 million, or 45.8 per cent, to reach over 9.4 million population by 2041 (larger than Chicago is today at 8,814,000)

• Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) population estimated to grow to 13,480,000

Employment

• Employment growth in (GTHA) 3,460,000 employees in 2011 to 4,830,000 in 2041

• Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) 4,460,000 employees in 2011 to 6,270,000 in 2041

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Leverage Toronto’s Strengths

Toronto Strengths:

• Financials

• Information Technology

• Processed food

• Education and knowledge creation

• Life sciences

Toronto is a leading North American centre in information technology, film and television, education, biotechnology, health care, design, food and beverage, green/renewable energy, professional services and tourism as well as financial services and manufacturing.

Toronto’s strengths offer excellent opportunities for Scarborough economic renewal.

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Expected Toronto Job Growth

• The largest increases were in the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) (31,000 new jobs) and Service (27,000 new jobs) sectors.

• 70% of all new jobs (79,200) are in the Office sector.

• Vehicles & Parts (15.0%) and Building Components (13.9%) posted significant increase.

• Renovation industry investment now matches new build construction industry.

Source: City of Toronto, Toronto Employment Survey, 2015

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Toronto Employment Survey, 2016 • 1,461,020 total jobs

• 38,740 more Jobs since 2015

• 35% of jobs located in the Downtown Core

• 393,350 jobs concentrated in employment areas

• 75,290 total establishments

• 79.5% of manufacturing establishments are in employment areas

• 550 more community and entertainment establishments

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Leverage Scarborough’s Strengths

• Large population

• In 2011, largest age cohort: 45-49 in Scarborough and 25-29 in Toronto

• In 2010, average household income: $72,394 in Scarborough and $87,038 in Toronto

Source: City of Toronto Community Council Area Profile, Census 2011 and NHS 2011,

2016 Census

2016 Census 2011 2016

Agincourt 104,499 105,542

Central 108,826 112,603

Guildwood 101,914 102,386

North 101,080 98,800

Rouge 102,645 102,275

South West 106,733 110,278

627,708 633,900

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Our Diversity is a Strength Ethnic Identity Pickering Ajax

Scarborough Rouge River

Durham Region Ontario

European origins 54,385 (61.9%) 58,700 (53.7%) 33,250 (32.6%) 424,495 (70.6%) 8,231,410 (65.1%)

Asian origins 19,605 (22.3%) 29,846 (27.3%) 51,515 (50.4%) 77,145 (12.8%) 2,604,595 (20.6%)

Other North American origins (Canadian, American, Newfoundlanders, etc.)

19,265 (21.9%) 23,340 (21.4%) 12,375 (2.3%) 176,865 (29.4%) 3,059,480 (24.2%)

Caribbean origins 9,695 (11.0%) 16,435 (15.0%) 13,745 (13.5%) 39,730 (6.6%) 396,485 (3.1%)

African origins 3,655 (4.2%) 4,705 (4.3%) 6,075 (6.0%) 14,160 (2.4%) 331,460 (2.6%)

Latin, Central and South American origins

3,545 (4.0%) 4,970 (4.6%) 4,675 (4.6%) 14,155 (2.4%) 271,545 (2.1%)

First Nations 1510 (1.7%) 1,875 (1.7%) 1,210 (1.2%) 17,295 (2.9%) 441,395 (3.5%)

Métis 280 (0.3%) 375 (0.3%) 340 (0.3%) 3,475 (0.6%) 97,045 (0.8%)

Oceania origins 50 (0.1%) 375 (0.3%) 190 (0.2%) 1,125 (0.2%) 19,410 (0.2%)

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Recommendations

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How do we build Scarborough into an economic power house?

SBA to…

1. Encourage City to do an economic development plan and sponsor business charrettes.

2. Advocate against conversion of existing employment lands to residential or institutional uses.

3. Promote new office development at new transit nodes and Scarborough Town Centre.

4. Accelerate and capture technology jobs generated by existing Scarborough industries and higher level education institutions.

5. Rebrand Scarborough

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1. Prepare Economic Development Plan Growth Pressure Provides Opportunity

• Increasing downtown costs, improved regional transit, and higher household formation among Millennials could boost demand for office space "in densifying areas of the suburbs.“

Economic Development Plan and Business Charrettes

• What’s the vision, goals and five-year set of actions for Scarborough’s economy.

• Needs to be linked to other City initiatives.

• Sources: City of Toronto, Toronto Employment Survey, 2015, CBRE, "Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook"

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Integration with New and Existing Plans

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Official Plan and Secondary Plans

City’s Strategic Actions, 2013 -

2018

District Economic

Development Plans

Smart Track

Recreation, Arts and Culture

Plans

Other Plans and Groups

Plan should build on Ongoing Initiatives Continue building bonds between Scarborough businesses and continue the focus on business development.

• Have local Scarborough businesses take part in a charrette to map out business plans and solutions.

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Economic Development Plan • Scarborough’s needs are different and a vision

is important.

• City of Toronto doesn’t have separate area visions.

• Adapt and Apply City of Toronto Strategic Plan for Economic Growth Specifically to Scarborough.

• Establish incubators, accelerators and mentors.

• Councillor Thompson’s efforts great.

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Potential Plan Recommendations Relocate 3000 City Staff to Scarborough

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Potential Plan Recommendations Leverage Hospital Reinvestment to Create Bio-Tech Clusters

• $2 billion potential Rouge Valley and Scarborough

Hospital reinvestment

• Enhance and incent medical research and bio-tech entrepreneurship as part of the hospital re-investment

• Stimulate health and life sciences clusters in Scarborough

• Work with Doctors and researchers who are also entrepreneurs

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2. Prohibit Employment Lands Conversion City faces constant pressure to rezone employment lands to non-employment uses (e.g. housing, recreation uses, religious establishments).

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3. Promote New Office Development at Transit Nodes • Kennedy Station

• Brimley and Eglinton and Kennedy North

• Lawrence East McCowan

• Link of the new LRT and BRT to older industrial areas and hospitals

• Initiate Secondary Plans around stops to include jobs

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Office and Employment at Transit Nodes • Leverage Higher Order Transit

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Office and Employment Nodes Complete Transit Villages with Employment Nodes

• Golden Mile Shopping Centre redevelopment provides a

strong planning opportunity – but not occuring. • Strong office development and job creation

opportunities may be missed.

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Office and Employment Nodes

Scarborough Town Centre

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4. Capture Technology & Talent

Capture Technology & Talent

Centennial College

• Source of Entrepreneurial Incubators

• Creating skilled and talented workforce

• Global connectivity

• New hospitality infrastructure • Councillor Holland great

appointment

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5. Rebranding Initiatives Living Arts Centre

“Scarborough is where I want to locate my business.” Planned to occur in 1984 before amalgamation.

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Rebranding Initiatives

“Scarborough Advantage”

“Scarborough Proud”

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Closure

Are these the recommendations that will turn Scarborough into an Economic Powerhouse?

• City and SBA to work on an economic

development plan starting with a vision • Strengthen partnerships

• Greater advocacy for economic development.

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scarborough 2.0: strategy to build an economic powerhouse

Economy & Finance