scb insight feb 2011 eng_aec

InsightEIC | Economic Intelligence CenterMonthly/February 2011

Moving forward with the AEC

The ASEAN Economic Community or AEC will make ASEAN a more interesting place to do business. The AEC will have an aggregate population of 580 million, more than that in the European Union itself. Given the low levels of income in many of the ASEAN countries, however, the aggregate size of the economy in the AEC is not that large, roughly that of just South Korea. This makes it incumbent on businesses to identify those salient characteristics of ASEAN which should make it of particular interest. For example, aggregate FDI in ASEAN is quite substantial, and it is a top tourist destination, second only to France.

But what the AEC will achieve in 2015 will still be quite far removed from the European Union (EU) in terms of achieving a single market. For example, while the AEC has achieved a FTA in the form of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), there are no immediate plans for a customs union (charging the same tariff on imports from outside the region). Restrictions on investment and labor will remain more significant than in the EU. Significantly, many of the supranational agencies which will facilitate the emergence of a true single market (e.g., common central bank, competition authority, and the like in the EU) are all but absent in the AEC. The AEC has taken a more consensual, intergovernmental approach, with the expected consequences.

Next up in the AEC is the liberalization of trade in services, investment, labor mobility, and greater harmonization of rules and regulations. Liberalization of trade in goods under AFTA was completed in 2010. The AEC also makes the usual calls for greater economic cooperation in such areas as SME networking and joint research.

Businesses in Thailand will confront greater challenges from the AEC as a result of (i) the higher percentage of ownership by ASEAN investors in services sectors; and (ii) the greater ability of skilled professionals to move within the region. Ownership limits are raised to 70% for ASEAN investors. The four priority sectors earmarked for such liberalization in 2010 include ICT, tourism, healthcare, and air transport, with others to follow in 2013 (logistics) and 2015 (the rest). The immediate impact of higher foreign ownership may not be that large as ownership levels in many sectors are still below the 49% statutory ceiling. But higher remuneration of professionals elsewhere in the region-e.g., Malaysia and Singapore-may eventually mean greater competition for skilled workers in the 7 professions liberalized to date.

With greater challenges come greater opportunities for Thai businesses to expand elsewhere in ASEAN. Thai businesses will benefit from higher investment ceilings in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. (Statutory ceilings are already high elsewhere.) Sectors with particularly high EBITDA margins include retail in Singapore and IT in Malaysia. Despite such greater liberalization of statutory limits, however, businesses need to be aware that many countries still have in place domestic rules and regulations (e.g., on minimum investment and modes of investment) which will continue to discriminate against foreign investment.

Taking full advantage of opportunities from AEC will require Thai businesses to focus on those particular areas where Thailand has an advantage (our core competencies) and where ASEAN is particularly distinctive. The AEC will tend to result in a greater concentration of production in the region. But given the limited size of the aggregate market, it is important to identify specific opportunities from Thailand’s and ASEAN’s unique relative strengths. For example, Thailand has a traditional strength as a food producer. Demand for halal food has been growing much faster than demand for food overall. With around 270 million Muslims, ASEAN has the largest Muslim population in the world. Taken together, this suggests an opportunity for Thailand to be a key (if not the key) producer of halal food for the region and beyond.

Moving forward with the AECWhat the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)really means for businesses in Thailand

4

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)offers greater opportunities1

ASEAN Economic Community*

Population 580 million

GDP size 1.5 trillion USD

FDI 50 billion USD

International tourists

65 million persons

International trade

1.6 trillion USD

Compare to…

Europe Union

South Korea

6 times Thailand

60% of China

ranked 2nd globallynext to France

* International trade, FDI and international tourists include intra-region figuresSource: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); China Ministry of Commerce; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); and International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is not merely about trade liberalization, despite frequent news coverage focusing on tariff reduction agreements among ASEAN Member States as well as between Thailand and other countries. In fact, the AEC involves the economic integration of ASEAN countries. It also covers the liberalization and facilitation of capital movement, labor movement, the harmonization of customs regulations, standards for goods, and economic policies among ASEAN countries. These factors make the AEC more than just a free trade agreement that Thailand has with more than 10 countries.

The AEC is one of the three pillars of the ASEAN Community. The other two pillars are the ASEAN Political-Security Community and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. These components will one day help realize the grand vision of an integrated and united ASEAN Community, like the European Union.

Integration towards the AEC will make ASEAN more attractive, with a market larger than the EU in terms of population. ASEAN can play a greater role in the global economy. Despite the moderate size of the ASEAN economy, it is increasingly an investment and tourist destination. Therefore, the realization of the AEC will increase ASEAN’s appeal in many aspects.

What is the AEC and what

changes will it bring?1

5


Full implementation of the AEC Blueprint does notby itself mean integration has been achieved2

ASEAN Economic Community

73.6%of target achieved

Single market and production base

Competitiveeconomic region

Equitable economic development

Integration with the global economy

Liberalization and facilitation of free flow of goods, services, investment, skilled labor, and capital

Laying the foundation for competition policy, consumer protection, intellectual property rights, and ratifying transport agreements

Studies and development of SMEs and Initiative for ASEAN Integration Work Plan 2

Entry into force of Free Trade Agreements

82% 50% 100% 100%

Source: SCB EIC based on data from Department of Trade Negotiations, Ministry of Commerce

Nevertheless, the completion of the implementation of the AEC Blueprint does not necessarily mean that the goal of a true, integrated economic community has been realized. It just means that the AEC Blueprint has been fully implemented. The Blueprint covers four important aspects of the AEC which are (1) becoming a single market and production base, (2) enhancing regional economic competitiveness, (3) building equitable economic development, and (4) integration into the global economy. The success of the integration process will be assessed by its outputs and outcomes, for instance, whether trade liberalization and tariff reduction have helped bridge price gaps among ASEAN countries; or whether the facilitation of labor flow has increased labor movement to a level that narrows wage differences.

Changes arising from the AEC will not be abrupt because the Blueprint towards the AEC has been carried out incrementally, with completion targeted for 2015. For example, tariff reduction, and the increase of investment ceilings in the Priority Services Sector to 70% for ASEAN investors have been in force since 2010.

One concrete output of integration towards AEC are the changing rules and regulations. This includes, for example, an increase of the investment ceiling in the services sector to 70% for ASEAN investors, less paper work, and easier goods inspection at checkpoints in ASEAN countries due to harmonized standards. However, in addition to those agreements, some parts of the AEC consist of terms of cooperation which may not yield tangible outputs, including networking among SMEs, networking among ASEAN universities, and promotion of research and technology cooperation in the field of agricultural products, foods, and forestry. Therefore, economic unity within ASEAN after the completion of the AEC building process could be evident, or remain vague in 2015. Many countries still have reservations over parts of the AEC, such as the preservation of some business areas for their nationals, and the free movement only of skilled labor.

The AEC in 2015 is unlikely to meet the high expectations of reaching the EU model. There have been discussions that by 2015 the AEC will transform ASEAN economies into a single market and production base like the EU, but a number of different factors affecting the AEC will prevent ASEAN from reaching those goals within that time-frame.

Box: What will happen in 2015?

6


7


1. Becoming a single market

and production base

- Trade in Goods

• Internal tariff rate - reduced to 0% - reduced to 0%

• External tariff rate - all member countries - each member country

enforcing the same tariff enforces its own rate

- Trade in services (share ownership) - 100% - 70%

- Movement of labors - free flow of labors - free flow of only

skilled labor

2. Other aspects of integration - Single currency - National currency

- European Central Bank : ECB - Intergovernmental

- Supra-national authorities with method without clear

central organizations such as: authority over each

• European Parliament member state

• European Court

• European Legal System

• European Competition

Commission

Features European Union ASEAN

The EU was originally determined to build a supra-national authority. It has authority to make decisions on behalf of all member countries within its agreed scope of responsibility, and member countries are bound by these decisions. This supra-national authority has created unity among member countries, and enabled the EU to move forth more easily while ASEAN is struggling with a slow pace and, in some cases, the impossibility of moving forward due to its intergovernmental nature, which means that member countries are still holding their sovereignty above the institution. Consensus is required in stepping forward, yet it is not easily reached. Although there have been ideas and attempts to develop ASEAN into a supra-national institution, ASEAN remains short of a concrete plan of action towards such a goal. Moreover, even the EU itself is facing difficulties in their attempts toward further integration, for instance, from differences in their fiscal policy as evidenced by the ongoing Eurozone public debt problems. The path towards integration followed by the EU may not be an easy one.

ptangthong

Highlight

8


Much works left to be carried out towards realizing the AEC3

Main types of international economic integration

Removal oftariffs andquotas

Commonexternaltariffs

Investmentmobility

Labormobility

Harmonizationof economicpolicies

Free trade area Common market Economic unionCustoms union

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003) 1

Only AFTAhas beencompleted

Much more remains to be done to fully realize the AEC vision. If we look at the whole process of AEC building, we have completed only one part of it, which is the reduction of tariffs among ASEAN countries, with the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement already in force. There are other important components requiring ASEAN’s collective effort and time to accomplish. This includes, for example, common external tariffs, which means a single tariff rate to be enforced in all ASEAN countries with their trade with external partners. This tends to be very difficult in practice and, in the end, may result in selective cooperation. For example, it is highly unlikely that Singapore would increase its tariffs from 0% to a higher rate as might be agreed by other ASEAN countries. The harmonization of economic policies among all member countries is another difficult task because so far there are no legal provisions or regulations binding all member countries. This is a major difference between ASEAN and the EU.

1 David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003), “Developing Indicators of ASEAN Integration - A Preliminary Survey for a Roadmap”, final report to REPSF Project 02-001

As one of the steps towards the AEC, every member country is required to cut their tariffs on all goods from ASEAN to 0%, except for those on their sensitive lists.Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brunei have already eliminated their tariffs since the start of 2010. The rest - Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam, will work towards 0% tariffs by 2015. (More details regardingimpacts on goods can be found in Outlook special issue: FTAs.)

In order to assess the positive and negative impacts on businesses, it is not enough to focus only on AFTA because Thailand has at least 10 FTAs in force with 6 trading partners beyond ASEAN2. The combined import value of the six trade partners is as much as USD 53 billion, which is higher than ASEAN’s.

Therefore, we will analyze tariff reduction on goods by employing a projection approach to see how every existing FTA and those in the pipeline would affect each business. For example, canned fruits and vegetables will feel a far greater impact from tariff reductions on China, the No. 1 source of imports, in 2010, and India, the No. 2 source of imports, with tariffs falling from 29% in 2010 to around 8% in 2017 than from ASEAN. This will intensify competition in the future.

BOX: Illustrative example of tariff reduction under AFTA

9


35

28.730

25

20

15

10

5

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Canned fruits and vegetables business has to preparefor more intense competition from 2012 onward4

Weighted average import tariff rate of canning and preservation of fruits and vegetables sector by FTA countries for the period of 2010-2020

_ ASEAN _ China _ India _ Korea _ Japan _ Australia _ New ZealandUnit: %

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Revenue Department; Department of Trade Negotiations, Ministry of Commerce; and Office of National Economic and Social Development Board

0.200

2.8

18.0

21.8

4.1

8.4 7.7

2 Excluding Peru which the agreement will be effective by second quarter, 2011

10


AEC allow ASEAN investor to hold up to 70%share ownership in services businesses5

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from ASEAN

Schedule of liberalization of ASEAN equity participation in services businesses

Priority Integration Sectors

• ICT• Healthcare• Tourism• Air transport

Logistics services

Other services

2006 2008 2010 2013 2015

49% 51%

49%

70%

51% 70%

30% 49% 51% 70%

Liberalization of trade in services is on the way. After trade in goods, freer trade in services will follow suit and lead to the liberalization of investment and labor mobility within ASEAN. This report focuses on impacts from freer trade in services. The main topic of interest is an agreement to increase the percentage of share ownership by ASEAN nationals, as the ceiling of shares held by ASEAN nationals in most business will be elevated to 70%.

11


Food retail, packaging services, and hospitalityservices tend to be immensely affected6Current foreign share ownership in services business in Thailand*Unit: %

* Weighted average data of 5 largest listed companies by market capitalization in each sector ** Figures based on data from Business Online PCL as they are non-listedSource: SCB EIC analysis based on data from SETSMART

53

4435

30 30 28 26 2421 20 19

16 16 15 15 14 14 1412 10

7 6

1 0

Lega

l co

nsul

tanc

y**

Pape

r p

acka

ging

Food

ret

ail

Hot

el &

res

ort

Broa

dcas

ting

Mar

ine

Tele

com

mun

icat

ion

Dep

artm

ent

sto

re

Educ

atio

nal

serv

ice*

*

Air

log

isti

cs

Inte

rnet

ser

vice

s

Adv

erti

sing

Air

lines

Ente

rtai

nmen

ts

Hea

lthc

are

Cons

truc

tion

**

Publ

ishi

ng

Envi

ronm

enta

l se

rvic

es

Hom

e im

prov

emen

t

Dis

trib

utor

IT s

ervi

ces

Rest

aura

nts

App

arel

ret

ail

Com

mer

cial

pri

ntin

g

Current ceiling = 49%

2While the ASEAN Agreement on Trade in Goods (ASEAN Free Trade Area: AFTA) is already in force, liberalization of trade in services, investment, and labor mobility are still on the negotiation table. Services business thus will be increasingly impacted in the near future. In this paper AEC analysis for the most part focuses on the impact of agreements on business rather than the role of cooperation within the AEC framework.

The liberalization of trade in services will affect Thai services primarily in two aspects: (1) an increase in shares held by foreigners, and (2) freer mobility of the professional workforce that is an important factor for services businesses. The importance of the latter is underscored by GAT’s defining the 4th mode, “the temporary movement of natural persons”, as a vital component for supplying the services described in Modes 1-3. (see BOX: the liberalization of trade in services within the AEC)

Services businesses in Thailand will be affected by the elevation of permitted maximum shares held by ASEAN nationals, including legal consultancy, retail food, packaging services, and hospitality services because these businesses already have a high proportion of foreign share holding, with an average of 39%. If the ceiling is lifted to 70%, there is a high possibility of encountering further foreign investors. On the other hand, some services businesses such as retail apparel, commercial printing, and IT services, have not been popular among foreign investors. The average of foreign equity participation in these businesses is only 4%, despite a ceiling of 49%.

Impact of the AEC on

services in Thailand

12


In fact, foreign investors currently have other channels facilitating greater investment than the AEC. This could mean that the impact may not be as much as anticipated if foreign investors are already using other available channels to increase their investment. For instance, investment promotion in some specific fields by BOI allows a more flexible percentage of shares ownership. Therefore, it is not surprising to see businesses in some areas owned 100% by foreigners.

Furthermore, impacts on one sector may help others. The education sector is facing more intense competition from increasing investment by foreigners, but this competition will lead to the development of students who will compose a quality workforce for other businesses in Thailand.

Another negative impact is a shortage of professional workers due to greater labor mobility in ASEAN. If we look at the remuneration and cost of living of an accountant, for example, we will find that remuneration in Singapore and Malaysia is about 3 times higher than in Thailand. This could cause brain drainage from Thailand, especially to Singapore, which has a decreasing working age population and the fastest increase of elderly people in ASEAN. It is forecast that the proportion of elderly people in Singapore will reach 30% in 2025 and 35% in 2050, up from the current 16%. This demographical change will double their need to import workers.

The impact may not be confined to specific sectors. As pointed out above, differences in the remuneration of accountants will affect every business, as they all require accounting services. Moreover, a shortage of critical professionals like physicians and nurses will not only affect the health care business, but also society as a whole, which could suffer from insufficient medical services.

13


Professional workforce tends to move toSingapore and Malaysia7

* From 2001 accountant salary inflated by headline inflation of each countrySource: SCB EIC analysis based on data from WEO, IMF; Cost of investing and doing business in ASEAN (2001 edition), ASEAN; and Penn world table

Accountant remuneration, purchasing power parity adjusted, 2010*

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Unit: USD (PPP) per month

Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Brunei Thailand Vietnam Lao PDR

One of the attempts to facilitate labor mobility within the AEC is to develop mutual recognition of professional accreditation. ASEAN has already concluded Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA) in 7 fields, namely engineering, nursing, architecture, surveying, medicine, dentistry, and accountancy3. Professional workers who are accredited as agreed in the MRAs will be recognized in all member countries, enabling them to more easily work in any member country.

Despite mutual recognition, labor movement may not be so easy in practice. Many countries still preserve rules and regulations that may prevent labor mobility from happening. For example, medical personnel who wish to work in Thailand will have to obtain a license by passing an examination, some parts of which are in Thai. There are also other obstacles such as differences in language, culture, and social acceptance.

3 More details of each MRA could be found from Department of Trade Negotiations, Ministry of Commerce

ptangthong

Highlight

BOX: The liberalization of trade in services within the AEC

The ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) is implemented along the same lines as the General Agreements on Trade in Services (GATS), which means a rather slow process. Instead of employing a negative list approach, GATS uses the positive list approach in negotiation, which leaves room for countries to prioritize specific service sections for negotiation. Countries are also entitled to determine their limitations in terms of minimum quantities and so forth, for each round of negotiation. Moreover, countries are allowed to choose professions for negotiations on liberalization of labor movement. The positive list slows down the liberalization process as it requires many rounds of negotiation, while the negative list approach only allows member countries to select their exceptions instead of their preferences. The liberalization of trade in services among ASEAN countries will be GATS-Plus (additional to that agreed in GATS). Trade in services is categorized into 4 modes of service supply: (1) cross-border supply, (2) consumption abroad, (3) commercial presence, and (4) temporary movement of natural persons. AFAS contains rounds of negotiation where a package of services is to be further liberalized. There will be 11 packages in total, which will be concluded by 2015. The latest concluded package is the eighth of the series.

Presently, some ASEAN country members of the WTO are likely to protect their services sector. They have very few agreements on services businesses, especially, professional services. Singapore, which has the greatest number of agreements on liberalizing trade in services within GATS compared to other ASEAN countries, has only opened 7 out of 12 service sectors agreed by WTO members in the Uruguay Round, and has almost no agreements on labor mobility. On the other hand, Vietnam, which has recently joined the WTO, has significantly opened their trade in services. Vietnam’s services sector will be less affected by integration towards the AEC.

14


15


Thai investors will have greater opportunity forinvestment in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines8

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from World Trade Organization (WTO) and Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Average foreign share ownership limit in services businesses in ASEAN countries

Cambodia

Vietnam

Singapore

Indonesia

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

70% in 2015

100%

100%

100%

49%

49%

40%

30%

Example of other domestic regulation

• One Cambodian director required in health services

• Economic needs test based on criteria such as no. of existing service suppliers

• Not allowed in some retail operations• Must reserve at least 30% of shelf space for goods produced by Bumiputera-owned small and medium size industries

• Not allowed in certain retail operations

3As businesses in Thailand will be affected, the higher ceiling of foreign shares held by ASEAN members will provide opportunities for Thai businesses in other ASEAN countries.

Thai businesses will be presented with greater opportunity to increase their investment, especially in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. These countries have so far capped the percentage of foreign share ownership at 30%, 40% and 49% respectively. The liberalization of trade in services under the AEC will push the ceiling up to 70% and enhance opportunities for Thai businesses. Singapore, Vietnam, and Cambodia are already largely open towards foreign investors (at least on paper!).

However, the elevation of foreign investment ceilings may be difficult to enforce. In practice, there are many other domestic rules and regulations to be complied with by foreign investors. These rules and regulations will be obstacles or barriers that could impede an increase in foreign investment. The most frequently raised example is the right of foreigners to own land, which remains prohibited in many countries, including Thailand. Some countries have found a way out by allowing long-tern rent instead. Moreover, there are other rules, for example, regarding minimum investment, modes of investment, the composition of a company’s board of directors (which must be local people), economic needs tests, joint ventures, and technology transfer.

Business opportunities

arise from the AEC

16


There are many services businesses withhigh EBITDA margin in Malaysia and Singapore9

Services businesses with highest EBITDA margin among ASEAN countries

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Bloomberg

Malaysia

Advertising

Commercial printing

Environmental services

Internet softwaresand services

Food and staples retail

IT Services

Marine

Singapore

Apparel retail

Computer andelectronic retail

Distributors

Department store

Publishing

Thailand

Healthcare

Metal and glasscontainer

Entertainment

Restaurant

Philippines

Educational services

Leisure facilities

Telecommunicationservices

Indonesia

Paper packaging

Vietnam

Hotels and resorts

Businesses with high profit margins, to some extent, possess potential and could be a good start in seeking interesting services businesses in ASEAN countries, especially after the agreement on trade in services under the AEC framework enters into force. In terms of profit, it was found that Malaysia and Singapore have many services businesses with a high EBITDA margin. According to statistics, Malaysia and Singapore have the highest average EBITDA margins for 7 and 5 service fields, respectively, out of a total of 21 fields for services sector companies4.

Business Opportunities in the AEC

4 This finding was a result of an analysis of limited data which covers only data of listed companies in stock exchange of each member countries collected from Bloomberg. They are categorized into each services field according to Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

17


10

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Bloomberg

Publishing Distributor Departmentstore

Computerretail

Internet software

IT services Commercial printing

Food and staplesretail

39% 19% 9% 7% 7%11% 5%

9% 8% n/a n/a

19% n/a n/a n/a n/a

15% 8% 21% 21%

21%

7%

7%

2% 4% 5%

4%

7% 17% 25% n/a

17% 17%

16% 15%19%

10% 12% 0%5%

21% 10% 26% 25% 22%9% 8%n/aMalaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

Philippines

Vietnam

Singapore

EBITDA margin ofsome services businesses

Potentially attractive services businesses in Singapore are those related to trade, such as retail apparel shops, computer and electronics shops, distributors, and department stores. In Malaysia, IT services and internet software services tend to make high profits. From the data collected for this analysis, we have also found interesting trends; for example, in ASEAN, low-cost airlines have almost twice the EBITDA margin than general commercial airlines; and there is only one human resources services company registered in an ASEAN stock exchange, and its profit margin is as high as 40%.

18


AEC opens a window of opportunity for further investment inhealthcare services in Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia11

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from Jutamas and Fink (2007) 5

Current foreign share ownership limit of healthcare services in ASEAN countries

100%

100%

100%

67%

AEC = 70%

49%

40%

30%

Singapore

Vietnam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

ASEAN countries attach great importance to the hospital sector as it is one of the four Priority Integration Sectors. Thailand has an advantage given her international reputation and profitability in services. Integration towards the AEC will open competition which, on the other hand, also presents a greater opportunity for Thailand to exercise her existing advantages in seeking more benefits, but the country will need to find the right opportunities.

The liberalization of the hospital sector under the AEC will significantly affect the sector in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia because of the elevation of the percentage of foreign shares ownership of ASEAN nationality to 70%. The hospital sector in Singapore, Vietnam, and Cambodia will experience a smaller impact as they do not limit foreign shareholding.

4Sector in Focus: What is the impact of

AEC on the hospital sector?

5 Jutamas Arunanondchai and Fink, Carsten (2007), “Trade in Health Services in the ASEAN Region”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4147, March 2007

19


Inadequacy of healthcare professionalworkforce in ASEAN12

Country Physician Nursing and midwifery personnel

Pharmaceutical personnel

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from World Health Statistics 2010, World Health Organization (WHO)

Lower-middle income countries

Unit: per 10,000 population

15 44 3

12 61 6

11 61 1

18 1

6 8 3

4 <0.5

3 14 1

3 n/a

2 8 <0.5

1 8 <0.5

10

10

7

Singapore

Philippines

Brunei

Malaysia

Vietnam

Myanmar

Thailand

Lao PDR

Cambodia

Indonesia

The hospital sector in Thailand may not feel that much impact from a bigger proportion of foreign shares because currently there is only an average of 15% foreign share ownership of hospitals in Thailand. The greatest percentage is 40%, which is lower than the current limit. This could mean that ASEAN investors had little interest in equity participation up to the limit. Therefore, an increase in the ceiling may not necessarily result in more investment as the constraint or ceiling on investment is not a binding one at present. Thus, the opening up to a greater proportion of foreign shares in the hospital sector may not seriously affect the hospital sector in Thailand.

The more significant impact may come from greater competition for health care professionals. This is due to the limited number of professional workers in the field of healthcare, especially physicians. Only Singapore, the Philippines, and Brunei have physicians above the average of lower-middle income countries. This will affect investment and lead to further social problems such as inequitable access to medical services because hospitals will bear greater costs in attracting and employing medical personnel. Medical service fees may increase as a result.

20


Demand for healthcare services inASEAN is on an upward trend13

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from United Nations

Singapore

Thailand

VietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippines

Proportion of population aged over 60 in ASEAN countries

Unit: %

In terms of business growth opportunities, demand for healthcare services in ASEAN look quite positive, with an increase in the aging population as a major driving factor. The United Nations has forecasted that the proportion of aging population (people above the age of 60), will jump from 11% in 2010 to 15% in 2025 and 22% in 2050. Singapore will rank first among ASEAN, with a proportion of 30% in 2025 and 35% in 2050, increasing from the current ratio of 16%. Thailand will come in second with an increase from the current 12% to 27% by 2050.

Business opportunities for hospitals in ASEAN, Indonesia, the Philippines, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Myanmar appear attractive compared with other countries. The ratios of the number of hospital beds to population in these countries are below the average of lower-middle income countries. They also spend less on healthcare compared with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

21


More healthcare services are needed in Indonesia,the Philippines, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Myanmar14

Hospital bed in 2000-2009 Per capita total expenditureon health in 2007

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from World Health Statistics 2010, WHO

Unit: per 10,000 population Unit: USD at average exchange rate

32 1,148

28 58

26 753

22 136

18 307

6 42

n/a

6 7

5 63

27

36

12 Lower-middleincome countries = 18

Lower-middleincome countries = 80

Singapore

Vietnam

Brunei

Thailand

Malaysia

Lao PDR

Indonesia

Cambodia

Myanmar

Philippines

Despite greater opportunities in the hospital sector, businesses will face other barriers, such as domestic rules and regulations. For example, in Indonesia, foreigners can only invest in hospitals with more than 200 beds and can only work as consultants. The Indonesia government intends to prevent money flowing out of the country from Indonesian patients using health services abroad. In addition, every hospital must provide 10% of their total services as third-class services to poor people, in order to enhance their accessibility to services in quality hospitals. Nonetheless, the hospital sector in Indonesia remains tempting because of an increase in the number of people in the middle and upper classes, as well as cheap labor. During 1993-1999, the National Investment Coordinating Board authorized foreign investment in 12 projects worth about USD 234 million. Most of the investors were Singaporean or Australian.

The Philippines has an advantage in possessing a large number of nurses who can communicate in English and are qualified by US standards. The number of nurses from the Philippines working abroad accounts for 25% of the total number of foreign nurses around the world. In the US alone, nurses from the Philippines account for 83% of total foreign nurses. Their salaries are as high as USD 5,760 a month. On the contrary, working in the Philippines will earn them only USD 175 a month. This could lead to difficulty for hospitals in the Philippines as many nurses will flow out of the country.

22


Expertise in cardiology couldrender great opportunity15

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from World Health Statistics 2010, WHO

HIV/AIDS

Ischaemicheart disease

Cerebrovasculardisease

Diabetesmellitus

Road traffic

accidents

ThailandRank


Lower respiratoryinfections


Trachea, bronchus,lung cancers

Colon and rectum cancers

Singapore




Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

Hypertensiveheart disease

Malaysia



Tuberculosis

Hypertensiveheart disease

Perinatalconditions

Philippines


Tuberculosis



Perinatalconditions

Indonesia

Top five causes of death of ASEAN population

Investment in healthcare services with a focus on cardiology could present a good opportunity in ASEAN because heart disease, especially, ischaemic and hypertensive heart disease, are among the top causes of death in ASEAN. Therefore, an investment in the hospital sector in ASEAN with a focus on cardio centers would attract more attention and will see greater demand.

In conclusion, the hospital sector in Thailand may not be seriously affected by an enlarged foreign shares ownership limit for ASEAN nationals. Currently the average level of total foreign share ownership in hospital business in Thailand is 15%. The largest percentage is 40%, which is lower than the current limit set forth by law. But the sector could be affected by the inadequacy of needed health care workers because most of the ASEAN countries, with the exception of Singapore, the Philippines, and Brunei, have an insufficient number of healthcare workers. Nonetheless, Thailand can exercise her strength and reputation in healthcare services to extend investment to Indonesia, the Philippines, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Myanmar, where there is a positive demand trend, while trying to focus on heart disease as it is at the top of the mortality lists in ASEAN.

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Full leveraging of corecompetencies will be a key16

3 trends in AEC 4 potential ASEAN market

+• Concentration of production• Non-tradables to tradables• ASEAN expatriate class

• Intra-region tourism• Biggest Muslim population• Growing middle-income class• Aging population

Healthcare services + aging population = real estate for retiree

Hotel management + ASEAN tourists = Thai brand hotel management

Food processing + muslim = center of halal food

Leverage core competency

Source: SCB EIC analysis

Example

Full leveraging of core competencies will be key in maximizing benefits from emerging opportunities in the ASEAN market under AEC.

Thai businesses must step out by using the ASEAN market as a starting point in strengthening themselves before possible further market integration like ASEAN+3, where we will see even more intense competition from businesses in China, Japan, and South Korea. We need to start by fully leveraging and rolling out our core competencies or strengths as well as seeking out opportunities from trends arising from the AEC and the salient features of the ASEAN market.

5How should

businesses adapt?

The AEC will bring forth greater opportunities for advantageous and strong Thai businesses such as the hospitality, automotive and auto-parts manufacturing, and food processing sectors.

Hospitality and spa sectorThe Thai hospitality sector earns more income from foreign tourists for Thailand in comparison with other ASEAN countries. During the time when tourism was not affected by the global economic crisis, Thailand made about USD 18 billion from foreign tourists, 20% higher than second place Malaysia. Thailand also has advantages, as it has many renowned tourist destinations. Thus, it is likely that Thailand will benefit from the growing popularity of tourism in Asia. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts that in the next 10 years, the proportion of tourists travelling to Asia-Pacific will increase from the current 20% to 27%, while the proportion of tourists travelling to Europe will drop from 52% to 46%.

ASEAN integration towards a single market will top-up opportunities for the Thai hospitality sector to earn additional income. For example, the organizing of package tours throughout ASEAN instead of only in Thailand by networking with travel agencies in other ASEAN countries or establishing branches abroad. Thailand’s reputation will help attract tourists to the country. On top of this, travel agencies will have an opportunity to advertise and try to sell their package tours to other ASEAN countries.

Manufacturing sector: food processing and automotive & auto-partsFood processing and automotive & auto-parts manufacturing tend to receive bigger benefits arising from comparative advantages in manufacturing and trading. Thailand holds the largest proportion of exports, with a percentage of 77% in food processing and 61% in automotive and auto-parts manufacturing. The automotive and auto-parts industry will especially benefit from Thailand being a big production base due to infrastructure, knowledge, and labor capacity. This will further push Thailand’s benefits in a bigger market with more intense competition, and in future automotive trends. An obvious example is the growing popularity of eco-cars, of which investment worth 34 billion baht is planned in Thailand. Indonesia, which is the second largest automobile manufacturer in ASEAN, is promoting investment in eco-car manufacturing but has not yet had clear criteria and specification for such eco-cars. This business in Thailand will have an excellent chance to benefit more from the integration towards a single market. There is also increasing consumption in ASEAN, especially in Indonesia and Lao PDR, where food consumption is increasing as a result of the growing number of middle and high income populations. Demand for durable goods, including cars, will also increase in parallel.

BOX: What about the sectors where we have traditionally been strong?

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A single market and production base in AEC will likely foster at least three key trends worth keeping an eye on: (1) the concentration of production to new bases with potential in terms of raw materials and markets, like the evolution of pick-up truck manufacturing in Thailand, (2) the age of new service products where non-tradables (services) become more tradable, e.g. organizing wedding events in Thailand for foreign couples, and (3) the emergence of a new ASEAN expatriate class, resulting from labor mobility in ASEAN, as exemplified by the increasing number of Singaporean executives in Lao PDR and Cambodia.

Production will be increasingly concentrated to new bases with market advantages and natural resources, and can benefit from production networks and regional logistics webs in ASEAN. This is similar to the expansion of pick-up truck manufacturing in Thailand, which started with their popularity among Thai people and continuously developed until Thailand became a regional pickup center, benefiting related businesses. In addition, there may be a natural resource-based advantages. For instance, Indonesia has ample marine resources, especially, tuna fish and shrimp, and is the biggest overseas fishery. Although not specialized in food processing, Indonesia intensely promotes foreign direct investment, which attract many international food processing companies6.

Non-tradables will increasingly become tradable in ASEAN. For example, patients can choose their hospital in other countries; the retired can decide to live in a place with appropriate services; and couples from overseas might come to Thailand to have a grand wedding ceremony at a cheaper price. Thai tourism can build upon these new service products which, in turn, will bring greater competition in tourism and will lead to the creation of new tourist attractions and recreation developments like Marina Bay in Singapore. Wedding ceremonies and celebrations by foreign multimillionaires in Thailand, which have made the news recently, furnish examples of new service products for which borders have been expanded. Additionally, the hospitality and tourism sectors will benefit from wedding couples and guests spending extra time in Thailand.

The promotion of and support for the Malaysia My Second Home Program (MM2H) is another example of a new way of generating income from services for retired people, formerly confined to the domestic market. The focus has now shifted to an aging foreign population with high purchasing power. This leads to the development of related businesses, such as real estate and healthcare services. Another example is Singapore’s big step beyond her land limitation. She overcomes the limit by investing in schools and institutions in Thailand as well as developing curriculum in accordance with her standards to accommodate both local students and Singaporean students in the future.

A new class has emerged from freer labor mobility in countries, especially those that lack skills and need highly skilled labor. For example, companies investing and locating in Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam need executives and managerial expertise from more developed countries like Singapore. This has created a new class and market with higher purchasing power than locals, as we can see from the customers of Thailand’s leading hospitals.

6 Indonesian law stipulates that 70% of marine creatures caught in Indonesian water must be uploaded at Indonesian ports for distribution or process in the country. For foreigners, food processing business must be in a form of joint venture with Indonesian nationals. The maximum percentage of foreign shares held is 80%.

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While the AEC is facilitating the creation of a single market, businesses should hasten to tap these new markets in order to establish market share. Emerging opportunities will come form at least three areas. 1. Behavioral changes in ASEAN. Greater importance is given to children’s education. More time is spent on vacation. People tend to spend for satisfaction and pleasure over utility. Obvious examples are the competition in the field of education in Singapore that has policies underscoring human resource development, and the increasing number of Lao students in Thailand. Regarding time spent on vacation, intra-ASEAN travelling has grown at an average of 7% per annum during the last 8 years compared to global travelling, which has only risen an average of 5% a year. In addition, the group of consumers who are willing to pay for their satisfaction and pleasure has expanded, as we can see from the spawning of expensive restaurants in many cities.

2. Demographic changes in ASEAN. The working population is on the decrease while the aging population is increasing. The size of the middle-income class that has a modern lifestyle i.e. using mobile phones, living in condominiums, and spending most of their time in shopping malls, is growing. 3. Country-specific factors. For example, in Singapore, agricultural fields account for only 3% of the total land in the country and can only produce 3 kinds of goods which are (1) seafood (fish), (2) eggs and, (3) vegetables accounting respectively for 4%, 23% and 7% of total consumption. Indonesia has the largest Muslim population, who composes an important market for Halal food, while the Muslim population in Malaysia has the third highest purchasing power among Muslim populations, following Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Full leveraging and rolling out of core competencies or strengths seems to be a good start to expanding business in the ASEAN market in the age of the AEC, which will create a critical mass of consumers in the region that all businesses can access. Each business needs to find its core competencies. For instance, Thailand has reputation and strength in the area of healthcare services, including hospitals and personnel. It will be a great opportunity to tap the retired population of ASEAN, of which the proportion will increase from the current 9% to 12% in the next 10 years. Both Thailand and Malaysia are voted the top 2 destinations out of 30 to spend post retirement years. We in turn begin to see the development of real estate aiming at attracting this market both in Bangsaen, Hua Hin, Chiang Mai, and Phuket. Brand building in Thailand’s hotel management is another example of expanding business from strengths and advantages. It will also create more ASEAN brands, in addition to the “Red Bull” that is the only ASEAN brand ranked in the world top 100 most valuable global brands 2010 according to Millward Brown. Regional hotel management brands tend to have an advantage over international brands given the increase in intra-ASEAN travel. It is forecasted that intra-ASEAN travel will increase at an average of 8% yearly for the next 20 years, while travel between ASEAN and other regions will increase by 6% on average. Even though international hotel chain brands gain more recognition regarding uniform standards and excellent customer databases, the increasing number of customers who are willing to pay will be a good opportunity for Thai brands.

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The expertise in the food processing sector and being a source of raw materials are advantages for moving towards becoming a center for Halal food. There are 270 million Muslims in ASEAN. Moreover, the growth rate of the global trade value of Halal food remains higher than the total food trade. In 2005-2009, the trade value of Halal food increased by 18.2% annually, higher than total food trade value, which increased by only 10.4%. Furthermore, the export of Halal food from Thailand is growing, and Thailand is now the fifth largest exporter of Halal food globally and the first in ASEAN. From now on, the main difficulties faced by businesses may not necessarily be in finding markets, because the AEC will help create a critical mass of consumers for many businesses. From traditional service products, there will be new products which become more tradable. For example, the wedding event organizing business, which was formerly confined to the domestic market, will now attract foreign clients. The next step for Thai businesses will be to penetrate markets and businesses in which we are competitive and can fully leverage our core competencies to be the very first to enter the market and imprint Thai brands at the ASEAN level to progress further in the global level in the future.

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Contributors

Vithan [email protected](662) 544-2478

Ekasit [email protected](662) 544-3085

Vithan received his BA in economics with honors from Chulalongkorn University and his MSc Economics from Thammasat University.

Prior to joining Siam Commercial Bank, Vithan has previously held positions with Ministry of Finance (Fiscal Policy Research Institute) and the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Ekasit received his Bachelor of Economics with honors and MA in International Economics and Finance (international program) from Chulalongkorn University.

Metinee received her BA in accounting (international program) with Gold Medal from Thammasat University and her MBA as Fulbright scholarship recipient from Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.

Prior to joining Siam Commercial Bank, Metinee has previously held positions with McKinsey & Company, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Metinee JongsaliswangHead of [email protected](622) 544-3259

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Sethaput Suthiwart-NarueputChief [email protected](662)544-4996

Research

Metinee [email protected](662)544-3259

Pornthep [email protected](662)544-3066

Pranida [email protected](662)544-2705

Paradee [email protected](662)544-2475

Vithan [email protected](662)544-2478

Witchuda [email protected](662)544-1644

Kampon [email protected](662)544-1463

Akarapat [email protected](662)544-5602

Bunyanuch NiltakochExecutive [email protected](662)544-5644

Research Networking

Darakorn [email protected](662)544-4006

Pinattha [email protected](662)544-2953

Vipasara [email protected](662)544-6566

Jiraporn KritsadarakExecutive [email protected](662)544-6759

Disclaimer : The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and each of such persons expressly disclaims any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the receipt and persons in whatever manner.

Any opinions presented herein represent the subjective views of ours and our current estimated and judgments which are based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct.

This report is for the recipient’s information only. It does not represent or constitutes an advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied as such. We or any of our associates may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

SCB Economic Intelligence Center

Ekasit [email protected](662)544-3085

Mantana [email protected](662)544-6760

scb insight feb 2011 eng_aec

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