scenario 6: avoiding poor performance – automated vehicles symposium 2014 4. consider, identify...

SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE –Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014

4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop?

The Distopian Vision!

• Economic incentive to have privatized autonomous vehicles vs. public autonomous systems (We can sell more vehicles, former automakers and mobility specialists say!!!)• Increasing mobility and access increases Sprawl. Sprawl will Grow! Suburbanization is supported and more land can be engaged to support regional economy




• Urban Areas will be consumed by traffic as roadway throughput at destinations will be overwhelmed by vehicle loads.




• People do not want to share disgusting vehicles! (cleaning will be a public policy problem with shared vehicles)




• Door-to-door Automated travel will destroy non-destination incidental en-route retail. Our downtowns will die!



The Distopian Vision!• All our city centers will be fenced to keep pedestrians from interfering with flow of automated vehicles




• People will live-in motorhome vehicles and cruise downtown cores to avoid urban housing costs• Poverty commutes are better because people can sleep en-route




• We do a whole bunch of new activities in our autonomous vehicles- Work- Sleep

- Board Games- Technology Entertainment- Conceive Babies- Windows are not necessary – so Drug Use and Manufacture proliferates


3. Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions?

• Poorer Health Outcomes (people do not have to walk as much with point to point delivery systems)


3. Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions?

• Economic Jobs Lost:- Bus Drivers- Taxi Drivers- Truck Drivers- Ambulence Drivers- Body Repair

• Capacity volume increase on Freeways, clogging urban core destinations• Incidence traffic will be reduced


2. What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions?

POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES:

• Specify infrastructure to shared autonomous vehicle use.




• Charge VMT• In urban areas install dynamic pricing “EZPass” monitoring on a block by block tolling basis to limit cruising congestion.• To avoid fencing our downtowns, force hard speed limits to create shared spaces of 5mph. Conversely, allow 145mph for automated vehicles on dedicated freeway infrastructure




• In Urban Areas, convert Urban Roadway Capacity (Broadway)• Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles




• Requirements to reserve slots in traffic flow, like now done at high-capacity airports• Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles• Require Dedicated Lanes for HOV and limit Single Occupancy Vehicles (encouraging slugging and “casual carpooling”)• Require Cleaner Vehicles to mitigate additional VMT


1. What can be done between to curb the growth in vehicle travel and congestion?

Most Benefits come from Shared, (Public) Solutions

scenario 6: avoiding poor performance – automated vehicles symposium 2014 4. consider, identify...

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