Scenario building

Creating and considering stories about equally plausible futures

Scenarios

Narratives (stories) that express what your information institution might look like in the future

Used in planning for the future Create various narratives to express

various possibilities Narratives should include you as an

actor—what will your role be

Scenario building considerations

What are the givens? Hawai‘i will continue to have children

that need an education Old, deteriorating buildings will

continue to need work What are the uncertainties?

Change to smaller school boards? Larger or smaller student population? “Education governor” who budgets

adequate funds for education? A legislature that releases those funds?

The Steps

Divide into groups

Discuss the environmental forces at work that will influence the future

Discuss possible futures

Create 2 or 3 scenarios

Share at least one of your stories with the rest of the class

Step One: Organizing

Divide into groups according to information institution type:

Public library

Academic library

School library

Archive

Special (including knowledge management officer for corporation)

Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Social forces

Changing demographics

Will population of Hawai`i continue to grow?

What about the school-age population?

Ethnic and linguistic diversity

Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Technology

Information retrieval software

Virtual reference

Provide more resources electronically

e-Books

Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Economics

Downward or upward economy (U.S. and local)

What would that mean in terms of funding for your institution?

If government funding drops are there other resources available?

Step Two: Discuss forces at work - Politics

Laws relating to libraries

Political instability

Political support for libraries and other information institutions

Concern for national security

Step Two: Discuss forces at work – Physical Environment

Cost of paper affected by growing pressure to restrict logging practices

Global warming

Step Three: Discuss possible futures

What will my library or other information institution look like ten years from now?

What will my role be in that library?

Step Four: Create 2 or 3 scenarios

Pool knowledge of group

Effect of varied directions for factors examined

Include worst-case scenario

Be sure to include yourselves in your narratives—What will you be doing in this story?

Step Five: Share a scenario with the class

What type of information institution are you looking at?

What might happen in the socio-economic and political spheres that might produce your scenario?

What will your institution look like?

What will your role be?

Planning for the future

Don't bet future on single scenario

Make decisions that will be sound for a variety of plausible futures

How will we influence our stories?