Scenario methods andStrategic telecom scenarios

Kerstin FrenningFrenning Consulting AB

Bo KarlsonKTH Education

2011 09 01

Agenda

•Presentations•Scenario methodologybackground•Testing strategic thinkingfrom scenarios•Overview of KTH MobilityForesight 2010 with focuson consequences foroperators•Wrapping up

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Scenario experience�• GBN Global Scenarios for the Electricity Industry�• Vattenfall OFU Scenarios�• Vattenfall Sweden Private Consumer Scenarios�• Vattenfall Ocean Scenarios�• Vattenfall Finland Sales Scenarios�• TeliaSonera Market Development Scenarios�• IVA Energiframsyn Scenarios�• Telia Marketplace Scenarios�• TeliaSonera Music scenarios�• TeliaSonera TV strategy scenarios�• KTH Mobility Foresight 2010�• Swedish Migration Board Outlook Scenarios

Strategy is all about winning�– and in order to win you have to be prepared

Kerstin FrenningOwner and consultantFrenning Consulting AB

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Scenario and related experience�• Wireless Foresight �– Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015 (KTH, 2001 2002)�• Technology Foresight (IVA, 2003 2004)�• Mobility Foresight (KTH, 2010)�• Lectures in broad range of courses in industrial management�• Executive positions at research center Wireless@KTH (2002 2006)

Bo Karlson, PhDKTH Education

Making scenarios is an excellent way to prepare forthe future �– and it�’s fun too!

Introduction

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DiscussionDiscussion

Key uncertaintiesfor TeliaSoneraKey uncertaintiesfor TeliaSonera

Article byCEO LarsNyberg

Article byCEO LarsNyberg

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TeliaSonera Investor Day, June 2011

The job of top management is to deal with uncertainty

Time

Uncertainty

Dailymanagement

Planninghorizon

Future

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Methods vary depending on level of uncertaintyLevel of uncertainty Description Example; sources of uncertainty

1. A clear enough future: can define point forecasts that are “close enough” for the decision at hand

• Returns on “common” investments in mature, stable market

• Customer and competitor reactions to strategies that reposition well-established brands

2. Alternate futures: can define a limited set of possible future outcomes. One of which will occur

• Potential regulatory, legislative or judicial changes• Unpredictable competitor moves• All-or-nothing industry standards competition

3. A range of futures: can define a range of possible future outcomes

• Demand for new products or service• New technology performance and adoption rates• Unstable macroeconomic conditions

4. True ambiguity: cannot define even a rang of possible future outcomes

• The outcomes of major technological, economic or social discontinuities

• Market evolution in markets that are just beginning to form?

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What are scenarios?

• Alternative views of the future– Significant events– Main actors and their motivations– Convey how the world functions

• Scenarios are not mechanical forecasts.– They recognize that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different

paths. They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenging.

• Uncover our own frames of reference– Respecting differences rather than aiming for a consensus– No single answer to the future– Sets of scenarios all address the same important questions in a different way– Particularly useful in situations where there is a desire to put challenges on the agenda

and where changes in the global business environment are recognized but not wellunderstood.

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Scenario methodology is a structured process

Define theKey Question

Identify andresearch keyuncertainties

Decide KeyDrivers

Prioritise keyfactors to

vary

Select scenariologics

�“Fleshing out�”the scenarios

Implications forissues anddecisionpoints

Watch events as history unfolds to findout asap which of the scenarios seemsto come closest to real life

Find leadingindicators andsignposts

Draw scenarioskeletons along

the axes

1 2 3 4

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Identified focalissues ordecisionsituations

Identified focalissues ordecisionsituations

Research keyuncertaintiescrucial fordecision successor failure

Research keyuncertaintiescrucial fordecision successor failure

Describe externalkey drivers�•macroeconomics�• politics�• technology�• etc.

Describe externalkey drivers�•macroeconomics�• politics�• technology�• etc.

Ranked list ofkey factors anddrivers

Ranked list ofkey factors anddrivers

Narrativedescriptions of thealternativescenarios

Narrativedescriptions of thealternativescenarios

Matrix with the mostcrucial uncertain tiesas axes

Matrix with the mostcrucial uncertain tiesas axes

Alternativescenarioskeletons

Alternativescenarioskeletons

Consequences ofalternative decisionsin different scenarios

Consequences ofalternative decisionsin different scenarios

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Examples of key strategic questions

• How will the electricity industry develop when it´s deregulated?

• What are the best long term options for our business now when the rules of the game arechanging?

• With the expected long term development in the retail market, what are the best options toprofitably beat competition?

• Can our company both grow scale and innovate at the same time?

• What is the best long term strategy to protect the value of our largest asset that is nowthreatened by extensive regulatory intervention?

• Shall we make an entry into another industry and if so, based on which infrastructuretechnology?

• Which research areas shall be prioritized in order for us to continue to be a successful playerin education and research within the mobile area?�”

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There are lots of questions but which ones are reallyimportant?

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Level of uncertainty

ImportanceLow High

Low

High

?

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?

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??

??

????

??

????

??

??

? ??

? ??

? ??

?? ??

?? ??

?? ??

Focus the work

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Unimportant Important

Uncertain

Knowledge exists

Break10 minutes

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We often react to uncertainty through use of habit

Survival

• Every day a lion wakes up and knows thatbefore the sun sets it has to kill a gazellein order to live.

• Every a gazelle wakes up and knows thatbefore the sun sets it has to run fasterthan a lion in order to live.

• Decide whether you are a lion or agazelle.

• In either case you start running.

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Key Question: How to survive

Key forces: Environment & rules of the game

Monopoly Law of thejungle

Gladiator games

Game park�“Kolmården�”

Farm

Wilderness

�“Culture�”

Savannah

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Monopoly Law of thejungle

Gladiator games

Kolmården

Farm

Wilderness

�“Culture�”

Key parameters are systematically changed

Savannah�• Only biological weapons�• Water supply abundance andshortage

�• Many species but low density perm2

�• High temperature�• Temporary territorial ownership �–constant fight for it

Parameters�•Arms�•Water supply�•Density of species�•Temperature�•Ownership

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Based on the parameters you tell a story I

Savannah�• Only biological weapons�• Water supply abundance and shortage�• Many species but low density per m2�• High temperature�• Temporary territorial ownership �–

constant fight for it

All the elephants were on the move. For most of the summer of 2010they had been coming in large groups over the Savannah anddisappeared over the western boarder �– going to lands with highmountains covered in snow.

The summer was unusually hot. Not a drop of rain had fallen in alonger time than any of the rhinoceros could remember. Grass wasyellow and dry. The newborn were weak. Several were killed eachnight by the meat eaters. Even the jackals could not wait until theywere dead.

By 2015 there was suspicions of climate change. Averagetemperature had increased and rains no longer came on a regularbasis. Grass now grew only around the few remaining permanentwater resources. Some apes tried to build rafts from the dry treessurrounding a large pond but they were attacked by the jackals allthe time so progress was slow.

Looking back these feel like peaceful times. Now, in 2020, there is aconstant fight for food and water every day. The area where oneactually can live is getting smaller and smaller all the time. Half of thespecies that used to live here are already gone. The giraffes arehowever thriving and their favourite trees are increasing in numbernow that other vegetation is gone. The jackals have great respect forthem too, so they keep out of their way.

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...and another story II

The elephants were restless. For most of the summer of 2010 they had seengroups of other elephants moving far away. They tossed their chains at night, as ifthey wanted to join their relatives. Luckily not one had got loose. They could havemade a lot of damage to smaller animals, pens, outhouses and storage shelters ifthat happened.

The summer was unusually hot. Not a drop of rain had fallen in a longer time thanany on the farm could remember. Several years of careful planning now paid off.Storage was good and food would last for a long time. Meat eaters and jackalshowever started to get closer to the farm and guards had to be put out each night.If they were lucky they killed a lion and could sell the fur to passing merchants fora high price.

By 2015 there was suspicions of climate change. Average temperature hadincreased and rains no longer came on a regular basis. The new irrigation systemhowever kept pastures green and the farm animals found shadow in sheds builtfrom the dry trees that were so many these days.

Looking back these were hard times. Now, in 2020, the farm is much larger and asmall village has grown up around it. This is an important stop for travellers ontheir way to the lands in the west where there are high mountains covered insnow. Many more species now live on the farm and each has a specific place inthe system of production and nourishment. Attacks at night from wild animals arerare. The giraffes are on the nearby Savannah are thriving and many travellerscome here specially to see them. They also find it exotic if they hear a jackalhowling far away.

Farm�• Bow and spear available to humans�• Water storage exist�• Few species high density per m2�• Temperature can be regulated�• Permanent territorial ownership with

border fights

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Now use scenario Savannah

1. Identify your best options in scenario Savannah2. Identify competitors and their countermoves in scenario Savannah3. Develop methods to achieve your best options with consideration taken to

competitor countermoves.

Now you are better prepared so you have increased your chances to win

Pretend that you are a lion or a gazelle

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Now use scenario Farm

1. Identify your best options in scenario Farm2. Identify competitors and their countermoves in scenario Farm3. Develop methods to achieve your best options with consideration taken to

competitor countermoves.

Now you are better prepared so you have increased your chances to win

Pretend that you are a lion or a gazelle

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Overview of KTH Mobility Foresight 2010

• Key question, organization and other fundamental assumptions

• The four Mobility Foresight Scenarios 2010 2020

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The key question for Mobility Foresight scenario work

�”Which research areas shall be prioritized in order for theresearch center Wireless@KTH to continue to be a

successful player in education and research within themobile area?�”

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Organization

• Study commissioned by the Director of Wireless@KTH �– a well definedassignment

• Steering group with experts from KTH and the industrial partners ofWireless@KTH

• Project team with 8 experts from different fields– Technology– Social and online trends and user behavior– Industrial development (telecom and datacom industries)– Scenario methodology

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Highly uncertain but important areasnominated by the steering group

• Coverage driven deployment (overprovisioning)

• Threat from increasing complexity• Who pays for infrastructure

(particularly �“Internet of Things�”)• Internet of Things/Devices• Who invests in infrastructure build

out? Why?• Radiation dangerous?• Limited network > differentiated

payment• Future user• Infrastructure development• Sustainable society• Trust for technology• Spectrum

• India and China• Jobs in Sweden• Electro magnetic radiation?

Dangerous or not?• Security/trust in a �”cloud�”

environment• Transparency? Good service vs.

Personal integrity• Capacity limit for MBB?• How to implement a complex

spectrum/radio situation• Usage of secondary spectrum• Spectrum a limited resource?• Future service providers? Potential

partners• Open/user innovation• Social network services• Effect from EU framework

programs?• Co operation with other technology

areas?

• API business (charge for enablers)• All things communicate, things &

people• Augmented reality / 3D• Connectivity business (business

model)• Competence thresholds for users• Energy Efficiency• Speed Energy �”Green radio�”. Is it

important?• Speed of energy efficiency

development• Energy efficient• Swedish areas of strength• Property rights to electronic works?• Simplicity in usage & operation• Who are future infrastructure

players? Potential new partners?

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Long term trends affecting the whole period, regardlessof scenario

�• Technology convergence�• No technical barriers todevelopment

�• Urbanisation�• Communities and�”clanning�”

�• Growth driven by�”eastern�” economies

�• Industry migration

�• ICT society growthengine

�• Sustainability

Political Economical

TechnicalSocial

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Two major driving forces for future development

High complexity ofmarket structure

Machine centricdesign

Human centricdesign

Low complexity ofmarket structure

Complexity of marketstructureHIGH: Market characterised by a multitude ofplayers, industry migration, high infrastructurepenteration, overlapping networks, advancedbut not synchronised regulation and manypossibilities for technology substitution.

LOW: Market characterised by a fewdominant players, industry specific or mergedsolutions, varying degree of infrastructurepenteration, little overlap between networks,framework regulation with of non interferencetype and low degree of technologysubstitution.

Dominating design criteriaHuman centric design of communicationsystems and serviceMachine centric design of communicationsystems and services

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Key factors play out differently in each scenario

Key factorsdeveloping differently:

�•Voice as business model�•Connectivity�•Regulation�•Lead users�•Situation based services�•Currently underserved segments�•Devices�•Capacity�•Sweden, India, China and Russia�•Bottlenecks�•Heroes/losers�•Typical conflicts�•Cost of communication components

Example: VoIP based business model

•Disappears•Some operators don�’t dovoice•Voice add on or free•Separate business modelsfor Infra and Services•Transaction and valuebased models

• Opportunity for specializedservice

• �“Always voice�” adifferentiator in the market.Room for a business model ofit�’s own

• Operators might or might notoffer voice

• Existing and developing• Transaction based business

model. Pay per transaction• Voice business models dominant

in rural areas, particularly inemerging markets

• Mixed data/voice models inareas with high populationdensity �– avoidance of flat ratefor data to build barrier tomVoIP

• Heavily influenced by mVoIPpenetration rate• Voice part of package• Packaged based revenuemodel �– similar to Internet• Business model differentiationby QoS

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Scenarios named to reflect group behavior withunprecedented mass communication

High complexity ofmarket structure

Machine centricdesign

Human centricdesign

Low complexity ofmarket structure

Technoclans Flash Mob

HarmoniousEmpire

Red Queen�’sArmy

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It´s in the news but what does it mean?

City Shares Plans to Become a Leading City in Software DevelopmentShenzhen is fast becoming a city that is leading in the software development andapplication department. In software development planning, the city�’s softwareindustry revenue is expected to increase by 20 percent in the next two years. Thecity�’s software industry will include the internet, mobile internet, cloudcomputing, and e business.

Asian handset makers on Tuesdaygenerally welcomed Google Inc.'s$12.5 billion acquisition of MotorolaMobility Holdings Inc.,

Stryker Corporation's Orthopaedics Division and OrthoSensor, Inc., theleader in intelligent orthopaedics, announced an agreement in whichOrthoSensor will provide the OrthoSensor Knee Trial, designed for usewith Stryker's Triathlon Knee System. The OrthoSensor Knee Trial is anintelligent trial that provides quantitative, intra operative feedback tosurgeons to optimize joint balance during total knee arthroplasty.

Three in ten smartphone owners in the UK, 30 per cent, say it would beworse to lose their smartphone than their wallet, according to a surveyby YouGov.

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ScenarioFlash Mob

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Development in this scenario is driven by users andopen source platforms

2010

2015

2020

Open source innovationand user co creation sets it off

Hacking becomes a problem, financial safety at riskand user values are violated

India new innovation huband Mobile value chainbroken up in NP and SP

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• Communication between people dominating• Fragmented market situation• War of business models �– Google VS Vodafone• Open programming platforms for services and applications• Focus on services, not on infrastructure

• User generation of content• Active lead users• Situation based services

• Regulation varies between countries, regions and technologies• Large variety of communication devices• Bottlenecks

• Still traffic jams at times• Interoperability between networks• Cost of deployment of new communication nodes

• Indian market vibrates with services• VoIP gradually deteriorating voice as business model

Characteristics of scenario Flash Mob

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Social media

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Very fast product life cycles

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A billion smartphones soon within reach

• Rapid growth• Cost going down• Memory increasing• Emergence of chinese vendors• Large opportunities for telcos

to bundle and diversify ondataplans

• Primary means of Internetaccess in many markets

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Safety issues

�“Hackers linked to the Russian mafia robbedRoyal Bank of Scotland customers of£6million in 12 hours.�”

�“Apparently this Facebook hacking site hasbeen around for over four years and itclaims that only 1% of Facebook sitescannot be hacked. The service costs $100to anybody who wants to get an accounthacked. �“

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Indian development

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�” India has been ranked at the second place in global foreign direct investments in 2010 and willcontinue to remain among the top five attractive destinations for international investorsduring 2010 12 period, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD)�”

�“India is the world's fastest growing wireless market. It is also the second largesttelecommunication network in the world in terms of number of wireless connections. As thefastest growing telecommunications industry in the world, it is projected that India will have1.159 billion mobile subscribers by 2013 and then will exceed China.�”

Discussion

• What does this scenario mean for the operators?

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ScenarioThe Red Queen�’s Army

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Development in this scenario is driven by sustainability,Internet of Things and Smart Grid deployment

2010

2015

2020

Increasing environmental problems,lack of political results andemergence of Smart Grids

Rapid penetration of machine centriccommunication overlooked by a Mobileindustry busy fighting Google

Machine centric communicationof critical importance to society.Prioritized and protected.Integrety concerns emergent.

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• Energy sector leading the way• Mergers and acquisitions in operator industry Oligopoly market situation• Rivalry between power industry and mobile communication industry• M2M solutions growing rapidly

• Billions of connections• Embedded communication devices in all kinds of products

• Connections primed for their usage �– M2M applications use specificprotocols

• Harmonized regulatory regimes in different regions• Bottlenecks creating secondary capacity market• Voice continues to be important �– especially on �“new�” markets

Characteristics of scenario Red Queen�’s Army

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Very complex integration

�“Strategy Analytics estimates the worldwide M2M communications market will reach $40Billion USD by 20111, with more than 500 million machines connected to each othergenerating communications traffic.�”

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Smart Grid implementation under way

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M2M sessions at industry conferences makingaudiences buzz

Cities are the key

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• �” EDF Energy Networks is bidding to create a smart electricity distribution network in Londonto help the UK capital cut its carbon emissions 60% by 2025. The bid to receive funding fromenergy regulator Ofgem�’s £500 million Low Carbon Networks Fund is being backed by theMayor of London and partner organizations Siemens, National Grid and Imperial CollegeLondon.�”

• �“Roughly 400 midsize cities in emerging are posed to generate nearly 40 percent of globalgrowth over the next 15 years. That�’s more growth than the combined total of all developedeconomies plus the emerging markets�’ megacities.�”

• �“The total value of China�’s Smart Grid market is expected to rise from US$22.3 billion in 2011to US$61.4 billion in 2015, according to a new market report.�”

Discussion

• What does this scenario mean for the operators?

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ScenarioTechnoclans

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Development in this scenario is driven by society´s needsand access to technology

2010

2015

2020

Aging population needs, cost problemsand easy to use technology leads toinnovation and entrepreneurship

Nordic test area develops,larger players step in and machinecentric innovation spreads.Open and closed systems coexist.

Abundance of communicatingthings due to low costsensors. New economicgrowth areas.

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• Applications developed from open source standards• Fragmented market situation• Aging population demanding ICT solutions �– open source solutions• Connecting 50 billion devices• Business landscape varies between markets• Many different radio interfaces and protocols �– open and closed• Regulators struggling to keep up

• Radio smog• Frequency regulation hinders market development• Concerns about personal integrity

• India serves the world with software development �– programming on demand• China drives the development due to manufacturing dominance• Voice business model disappearing as major source of income for operators

Characteristics of scenario Technoclan

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Mandriva Flash 2010A complete mobile 3D desktop on a 8GB USB key

In partnership with Barcelona�’s Hospital de la Esperanza, Telefónica has developed a knee braceembedded with motion sensors that enable physicians to monitor patients�’ rehabilitationremotely after they�’ve been discharged from the hospital. As they exercise, patients�—and thereare 200 testing the device right now�—watch their movements simulated via a 3D avatar on acomputer, which wirelessly sends the data to the doctor for view on a PC or cell phone.Telefónica aims to sell the brace to hospitals worldwide when trials are completed by next year.

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Very rapidly growing cost for care

• �” The number of sick elderly people,or those with disabilities, willincrease by 57% 69% over the next20 years.

• The amount spent by government,individuals and organisations oncaring for these elderly people willneed to increase from £10 billion ayear to about £20 billion or more by2026.

• The money should go into helpingvulnerable old people stay at homerather than moving into residentialcare.�”

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Discussion

• What does this scenario mean for the operators?

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ScenarioHarmonious Empire

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Development in this scenario is driven by theimportance of the Chinese market

2010

2015

2020

The Chinese mobile marketbecomes advanced

Enabling of mobile payments

Leveraging scale providesopportunities forsocial welfare andeconomic growth

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• Prolonged global economical crisis• China the dominating force• Consolidation Big operators merge

• Global market structure �– similar between countries• Global oligopoly

• Value added services based on efficient and safe payment solutions• No real take off for M2M services• Concerns for user integrity• Regulation varies between countries and regions• Devices developed for the large operators• Voice business model still important, even dominating in e.g. rural areas

Characteristics of scenario Harmonious Empire

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Interactive Voice Response

AirTel from Bharti Tele Ventures, brings a new serviceexperience to Punjab with a series of value addedservices. It marks the end of a single operator regimein the state and the beginning of a new mobile phoneservice experience�…....

Nokia Siemens Networks has been awarded a panIndia contract from Bharti Airtel Limited fordeployment of a single Interactive VoiceResponse(IVR) platform across all 23 circles...... The new IVRsolution will enable Airtel to deliver Services such asVoice SMS, Televoting, Call ManagementServices(Reach me service / Missed Call Advisor),Caller Ring back Tone (CRBT) and Voice Portal amongothers on a faster time to market basis, reduce OPEXcosts due to optimized network utilization, andincrease security by creation of a layered architecturetowards Interactive Voice applications.

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Very fast change of market conditions

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Discussion

• What does this scenario mean for the operators?

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Scenario summaries at: www.wireless.kth.se

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Wrapping up

• If this session about scenario planning was to be compared to food �– whatkind of food would it be?

• What are your thoughts about this session?

• How do you feel?

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Back up slides

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Crowd from Central Park becomes world leading company

In 2010 Kizzy Graham and The Flaming Lips collected a flash crowd in Central Park. A new companywas formed from a joke about 15 minutes of fame and they released a few applications onFoursquare the next day. They took off beautifully and �“Little Fluffy Cloud�”, as the company wascalled, was born for real. Two years later they went international, singing �“Fist we take Manhattan,then we take Berlin.�” Their Russian office was a major step in their pursuit to liberate the world.

Success followed in their footsteps and they attracted the interest of the Russian BusinessFederation and were hacked in 2015. Within 24 hours their business was almost gone and theircustomers busted. Traditional safety measures had been of little use. They started all over and withthe help of their customers they both got the hackers in jail and developed a new openprogramming platform for money transfer from users to creators. A number of customers actuallybecame employees.

From 2015 �“Little Fluffy Cloud�” gradually bought Vodafons´ Service Provider business and by 2020they had moved headquarters to India. Vodafone specialized and became the world leadingintelligent mobile bit pipe and �“Little Fluffy Cloud�” is one of their largest customers. The companyhas continued to innovate in areas with underserved segments and has put more than a hundrednew services on the market during the last two years. They also have special programs forincreasing literacy and poverty reduction and own a university at the coast of Goa.

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When things speak to save society people adapt

During late spring and early summer of 2010 Mobile leaders wanted to retaliate at Google whilepoliticians showed increasing inaptitude to deal with global sustainability issues and newenvironmental scandals arouse almost weekly. Media called for leadership and EDF took thechallenge, followed by other large energy companies. With solutions based on test results fromresearch roll out of Smart Grids started backed by new technology neutral regulation. Mobilecompanies focused on market consolidation and power building to match Google.

By 2015 the market had taken off with control systems, devices and connections primed for theirspecific usage. Machine centric applications communicated over their own networks and protocols,never mixing with �“ordinary�” traffic data. After several incidents a regulation prioritizing machinecentric communication, energy and utility usage and �“Blue Light�” companies was implemented inmost countries. T Mobile messed up and when they tried to get back in the game it was to late.

Gigantic urbanisation in India and China created unconventional solutions based on infrastructuretechnology convergence. Ever increasing amounts of data gave birth to a new business for DataHandling & Control, heavily regulated in the same way as military and state secret operations. By2020 the role of Mobile layers had changed substantially. Mobile technologies had a supportingrole to the development in advanced markets while they were core to innovation in Africa. Privateconsumers had little influence and there was an increasing concern over integrity issues.

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Let´s fix it and see what happens

In 2010 entrepreneurial innovation in medical applications leads to large scale tests andopening up of regulatory systems to facilitate solutions for society´s needs. Qualityvaries but penetration is quite rapid. Larger players step in and secure access to openplatforms. Non expensive chips flood the market.

By 2015 there are a lot of machine centric applications in different industries. Applehooks up with Lego and a clothes company and proves that this can be profitable in aclosed environment too. Smart Grid roll out leads to high household penetration ofsmall control centres which further speeds up the development. Location based servicesare important in regulating emissions and improving sustainability.

2015 there are so many different things communicating that it actually is hard to avoidthem. Capacity need for machine centric solutions disturbed by peak load for humancentric services. Capacity trading has started. Also problems with too many standards.Network suppliers and infrastructure companies take a lot of responsibility for solvingthis through including more and more intelligence into the network. New growth areasemerge in unexpected places.

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The one who is big and strong also has to be kind, says Bamse

In 2010 China Mobile is no 10 on the list of the most valuable companies in the worldwith a number of acknowledgements also in areas like management, corporateresponsibility and sustainability. Successful roll out continues to rural areas andadvanced value add human centric services grow rapidly.

By 2015 Chinese political support for �“home grown innovation�” secures grip overenormous cash flow and partnership opportunities. Acquisition of a bank is key tosolving mobile payments and successful expansion into on line retail business starts.Internationalization follows, including continued commitment to good citizenship also innew markets. A critical phase regarding competitive regulation is solved to theadvantage of creation of large global players.

2020 there are only a few big players left. China Mobile is growing globally, includingIndia and Africa, and has started a partnership with China Energy leading to futuregrowth in machine centric communication. An acquisition of Vodafone is made and themerger is imminent. �“With a combined global market share of 70% in mobile servicesand an additional 25% market share of global on line business China Mobile is wellpositioned for the future.�”

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Break10 minutes

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