scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation
TRANSCRIPT
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Scenariosasaforesighttoolinclimatechangeadapta3on
SimonaPedde,KasperKok
PLACARDWorkshop
Vienna,24-25October2016
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Content
-Whatscenarios- Whydoweneedsocio-economicscenarios?
- Differentscenariotypes
- Howwecombinescenarios
-Roleofscenarios- QuanPfyingimpactsofCCandvulnerabiliPes
- ContextforCCA
-ImplicaPonsforCCA
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COP21:TheParisAgreement
“…holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels,recognizingthatthiswouldsignificantlyreducetherisksandimpactsofclimatechange…”
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Currentemissionstrends
• RecentresearchonmiPgaPonindicatesthattheincreasinggrowthinCO2emissionsthathasoccurredsince2000hassignificantlyreducedtheprobabilityoflimiPngwarmingto1.5or2oC.
Jordanetal.(2013).Goingbeyondtwodegrees?TherisksandopportuniPesofalternaPveopPons.ClimatePolicy,13:751-769.
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ns-project.euHowitstarted:Aparallelprocessfor
globalscenarios
Source: O’Neill and Schweizer (2011)
‘Themagnitudeandextentofgreenhousegasemissionsdoesnothaveaone-to-onerelaPonshipwithdemographicandsocio-economicdevelopment’
Source: Ebi et al. (2014)
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GlobalRCPs
www.im
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ns-project.euClimatescenarios:precipita3on
changeinEurope
25% 50% 75%
RCP4.5 -2.9 0.2 2.3
RCP8.5 -7.8 -4.8 0.8
AnnualtemperaturechangefromalargesubsetofclimatemodelsinCMIP5:
SeasonaltemperaturechangefromHadGEMEarthSystemModeldownscaledwiththeRCAregionalmodelataspaPalresoluPonof50km(changesrelaPveto1981-2010):
www.im
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ns-project.euClimatescenarios:temperature
changeinEurope
25% 50% 75%
RCP4.5 2.0 2.5 2.9
RCP8.5 4.1 4.5 5.6
AnnualtemperaturechangefromalargesubsetofclimatemodelsinCMIP5:
SeasonaltemperaturechangefromHadGEMEarthSystemModeldownscaledwiththeRCAregionalmodelataspaPalresoluPonof50km(changesrelaPveto1981-2010):
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Whatarescenarios?
Source:Zureketal.2007
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GlobalSSPs
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
SSPsxRCPsinIMPRESSIONS
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Mul3scalescenariosforEurope
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Scenarioproducts
• Threeproducts:– NarraPves
– TableswithassumpPons
– QuanPficaPons
www.im
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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(I):
groupbrainstormings
Minutes
Clustering of stakeholder input and re-elaboration with e.g. minutes results in categorized uncertainties and hence storylines
www.im
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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(II)
Groupexercise• 1quesPonnairepergroup• QualitaPvetrendsforeachscenario
2070 2040 2100
+
+++
++
2010
- - - - -
-
0
decrease
2040 2070 2100 Europe 0 + ++
www.im
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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(II)
Individualexercise• 1quesPonnaireperperson• QuanPtaPvetrendsforeachscenario
High decrease
Medium decrease
Low decrease
No change
Low increase
Medium increase
High increase
-9.0
-5.0
-5.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
-1.0
1.0
1.0
10.0
5.0
30.0
30.0
60.0
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Combiningnarra3vesandquan3fica3ons
Source:Peddeetal.,subm
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Maxim
um M
inim
um
Individual stakeholder numerical ranges for “High decrease”
Med
ian
Genera3nginputtomodels(I)
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Genera3nginputtomodels(II)
1
FIGURE 1: CALCULATIO N O F 'DEFAULT’ AND ‘CREDIBLE RANGE’ FO R THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 2 PLATFO RM 2 USING STAKEHO LDER DERIVED Q UANTIFICATIO N. 3
Combinedstakeholder-generatedinput(mostlyàInterpretedasunimodal,asymmetricalandlimiteddistribuPons..HereweshowlogcorrectedrangesandfitsintonormaldistribuPonsfortheecasestudies
EndedupwithbetadistribuPonsresemblinguniformdistribuPons
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Example:inputtoALLOCATIONmodel
.
Source:Liel.,Inprep
Sector Scenario driver Period
Integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios† Source Estimation
method SSP1 x RCP4.5
SSP4 x RCP4.5
SSP3 x RCP8.5
SSP5 x RCP8.5
Economy GDP
2010-2040 +85.10% +63.74% +50.63% +116.91%
Database IIASA SSP Database 2040-2070 +40.61% +15.95% -2.18% +94.74%
2070-2100 +29.64% +4.64% -8.43% +81.09%
Climate Temperature
2010-2040 +1.3°C +1.3°C +1.4°C +1.4°C
Model
IMPRESSIONS EU Integrated Assessment Platform
2040-2070 +1.0°C +1.0°C +1.8°C +1.8°C
2070-2100 +0.5°C +0.5°C +2.3°C +2.3°C
Demographics Population (and age structure)
2010-2040 -5.24% -10.79% -16.47% +1.09%
Model
IMPRESSIONS EU Integrated Assessment Platform
2040-2070 -6.99% -17.72% -27.39% +6.10%
2070-2100 -12.21% -24.82% -32.71% +3.54%
Demographics
Attractiveness of living in village (urban out-migration)
2010-2040 -36.33% +18.33% 0% -36.33% Stakeholder workshop
Quantification using Fuzzy Set Theory
2040-2070 0% +36.33% -22.17% -57.67%
2070-2100 -36.33% +0% -22.17% -36.33%
Urban planning
Urban green area extent
2010-2040 +11.67% 0% -8% -8% Stakeholder workshop
Quantification using Fuzzy Set Theory
2040-2070 +11.67% -8% -8% -24%
2070-2100 +11.67% -8% -8% -24%
Urban planning
Regulation on urban morphology
2010-2040 compact compact sprawl sprawl+ Stakeholder workshop
Qualitative interpretations of the integrated scenarios
2040-2070 compact sprawl sprawl+ sprawl+
2070-2100 compact compact n/a* sprawl+
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Example:inputtoALLOCATIONmodel
.
(Source:Liel.,Inprep)
www.im
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model
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Evalua3onfromstakeholders
Workshopingeneral:highlevelofsaPsfacPon(generallybetweenhighandveryhigh)regardingfacilitaPon,focusandcomposiPonoftheworkshop.
FuzzySets:AddiPonalinformaPonwasaskedabouttheFuzzySetexerciseresulPnginsimilarsaPsfacPonlevels.
The results reported here are similar to those in Kok et al. 2014
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Evalua3onfromstakeholdersTheFuzzySetexercisewasthemostchallengingexercise.Yetitwasappreciatedandconsideredusefulbythestakeholders.
Veryusefuln=0
Usefuln=11
Somewhatusefuln=3
Abitusefuln=2
Unusefuln=0
Noopinionn=1
HowusefuldoyouthinktheoutputoftheFuzzySetexcercisewillbetobuildthescenarios?
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ContextforCCA
-
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RelevanceofscenariosinCCA
- ApproachtoexplorefuturetrendsinastructuredyetcreaPvemanner
- ScenariosareNOT“just”climate/impactmodelextrapolaPonsofthepresentandmayincludealsonon-linearsocietalchanges
- MethodsopencombineparPcipatoryandqualitaPveelementswithmodelledtrends.
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(PresentedatECCA2015byJensChristensen)
Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number: 603416
Thankyou!
hZp://3nyurl.com/EU-SSPs