scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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Page 1: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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TandP

Page 2: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number: 603416

Scenariosasaforesighttoolinclimatechangeadapta3on

SimonaPedde,KasperKok

PLACARDWorkshop

Vienna,24-25October2016

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Content

-Whatscenarios-  Whydoweneedsocio-economicscenarios?

-  Differentscenariotypes

-  Howwecombinescenarios

-Roleofscenarios-  QuanPfyingimpactsofCCandvulnerabiliPes

-  ContextforCCA

-ImplicaPonsforCCA

Page 4: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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COP21:TheParisAgreement

“…holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels,recognizingthatthiswouldsignificantlyreducetherisksandimpactsofclimatechange…”

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Currentemissionstrends

•  RecentresearchonmiPgaPonindicatesthattheincreasinggrowthinCO2emissionsthathasoccurredsince2000hassignificantlyreducedtheprobabilityoflimiPngwarmingto1.5or2oC.

Jordanetal.(2013).Goingbeyondtwodegrees?TherisksandopportuniPesofalternaPveopPons.ClimatePolicy,13:751-769.

Page 6: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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ns-project.euHowitstarted:Aparallelprocessfor

globalscenarios

Source: O’Neill and Schweizer (2011)

‘Themagnitudeandextentofgreenhousegasemissionsdoesnothaveaone-to-onerelaPonshipwithdemographicandsocio-economicdevelopment’

Source: Ebi et al. (2014)

Page 7: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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GlobalRCPs

Page 8: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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ns-project.euClimatescenarios:precipita3on

changeinEurope

25% 50% 75%

RCP4.5 -2.9 0.2 2.3

RCP8.5 -7.8 -4.8 0.8

AnnualtemperaturechangefromalargesubsetofclimatemodelsinCMIP5:

SeasonaltemperaturechangefromHadGEMEarthSystemModeldownscaledwiththeRCAregionalmodelataspaPalresoluPonof50km(changesrelaPveto1981-2010):

Page 9: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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ns-project.euClimatescenarios:temperature

changeinEurope

25% 50% 75%

RCP4.5 2.0 2.5 2.9

RCP8.5 4.1 4.5 5.6

AnnualtemperaturechangefromalargesubsetofclimatemodelsinCMIP5:

SeasonaltemperaturechangefromHadGEMEarthSystemModeldownscaledwiththeRCAregionalmodelataspaPalresoluPonof50km(changesrelaPveto1981-2010):

Page 10: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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Whatarescenarios?

Source:Zureketal.2007

Page 11: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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GlobalSSPs

RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5

SSPsxRCPsinIMPRESSIONS

Page 12: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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Mul3scalescenariosforEurope

Page 13: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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Scenarioproducts

•  Threeproducts:–  NarraPves

–  TableswithassumpPons

–  QuanPficaPons

Page 14: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(I):

groupbrainstormings

Minutes

Clustering of stakeholder input and re-elaboration with e.g. minutes results in categorized uncertainties and hence storylines

Page 15: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(II)

Groupexercise•  1quesPonnairepergroup•  QualitaPvetrendsforeachscenario

2070 2040 2100

+

+++

++

2010

- - - - -

-

0

decrease

2040 2070 2100 Europe 0 + ++

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ns-project.euGatheringdatainworkshops(II)

Individualexercise•  1quesPonnaireperperson•  QuanPtaPvetrendsforeachscenario

High decrease

Medium decrease

Low decrease

No change

Low increase

Medium increase

High increase

-9.0

-5.0

-5.0

-1.0

-1.0

-0.2

-1.0

1.0

1.0

10.0

5.0

30.0

30.0

60.0

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Combiningnarra3vesandquan3fica3ons

Source:Peddeetal.,subm

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Maxim

um M

inim

um

Individual stakeholder numerical ranges for “High decrease”

Med

ian

Genera3nginputtomodels(I)

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Genera3nginputtomodels(II)

1

FIGURE 1: CALCULATIO N O F 'DEFAULT’ AND ‘CREDIBLE RANGE’ FO R THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 2 PLATFO RM 2 USING STAKEHO LDER DERIVED Q UANTIFICATIO N. 3

Combinedstakeholder-generatedinput(mostlyàInterpretedasunimodal,asymmetricalandlimiteddistribuPons..HereweshowlogcorrectedrangesandfitsintonormaldistribuPonsfortheecasestudies

EndedupwithbetadistribuPonsresemblinguniformdistribuPons

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Example:inputtoALLOCATIONmodel

.

Source:Liel.,Inprep

Sector Scenario driver Period

Integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios† Source Estimation

method SSP1 x RCP4.5

SSP4 x RCP4.5

SSP3 x RCP8.5

SSP5 x RCP8.5

Economy GDP

2010-2040 +85.10% +63.74% +50.63% +116.91%

Database IIASA SSP Database 2040-2070 +40.61% +15.95% -2.18% +94.74%

2070-2100 +29.64% +4.64% -8.43% +81.09%

Climate Temperature

2010-2040 +1.3°C +1.3°C +1.4°C +1.4°C

Model

IMPRESSIONS EU Integrated Assessment Platform

2040-2070 +1.0°C +1.0°C +1.8°C +1.8°C

2070-2100 +0.5°C +0.5°C +2.3°C +2.3°C

Demographics Population (and age structure)

2010-2040 -5.24% -10.79% -16.47% +1.09%

Model

IMPRESSIONS EU Integrated Assessment Platform

2040-2070 -6.99% -17.72% -27.39% +6.10%

2070-2100 -12.21% -24.82% -32.71% +3.54%

Demographics

Attractiveness of living in village (urban out-migration)

2010-2040 -36.33% +18.33% 0% -36.33% Stakeholder workshop

Quantification using Fuzzy Set Theory

2040-2070 0% +36.33% -22.17% -57.67%

2070-2100 -36.33% +0% -22.17% -36.33%

Urban planning

Urban green area extent

2010-2040 +11.67% 0% -8% -8% Stakeholder workshop

Quantification using Fuzzy Set Theory

2040-2070 +11.67% -8% -8% -24%

2070-2100 +11.67% -8% -8% -24%

Urban planning

Regulation on urban morphology

2010-2040 compact compact sprawl sprawl+ Stakeholder workshop

Qualitative interpretations of the integrated scenarios

2040-2070 compact sprawl sprawl+ sprawl+

2070-2100 compact compact n/a* sprawl+

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Example:inputtoALLOCATIONmodel

.

(Source:Liel.,Inprep)

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ns-project.euExample:outputfromALLOCATION

model

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Evalua3onfromstakeholders

Workshopingeneral:highlevelofsaPsfacPon(generallybetweenhighandveryhigh)regardingfacilitaPon,focusandcomposiPonoftheworkshop.

FuzzySets:AddiPonalinformaPonwasaskedabouttheFuzzySetexerciseresulPnginsimilarsaPsfacPonlevels.

The results reported here are similar to those in Kok et al. 2014

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Evalua3onfromstakeholdersTheFuzzySetexercisewasthemostchallengingexercise.Yetitwasappreciatedandconsideredusefulbythestakeholders.

Veryusefuln=0

Usefuln=11

Somewhatusefuln=3

Abitusefuln=2

Unusefuln=0

Noopinionn=1

HowusefuldoyouthinktheoutputoftheFuzzySetexcercisewillbetobuildthescenarios?

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ContextforCCA

-

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RelevanceofscenariosinCCA

-  ApproachtoexplorefuturetrendsinastructuredyetcreaPvemanner

-  ScenariosareNOT“just”climate/impactmodelextrapolaPonsofthepresentandmayincludealsonon-linearsocietalchanges

-  MethodsopencombineparPcipatoryandqualitaPveelementswithmodelledtrends.

Page 27: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

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(PresentedatECCA2015byJensChristensen)

Page 28: Scenarios as a foresight tool in climate change adaptation

Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number: 603416

Thankyou!

[email protected]

hZp://3nyurl.com/EU-SSPs