school of social work

1 School of Social Work

What Can We Expect in the Future? As we confront our challenges, what will be

the primary problems we will need to solve? Mark TestaSpears-Turner Distinguished Professor

50 Years of CCAI: Celebrating our Past---Envisioning our FutureChicago, ILJune 13, 2014

Futurology 101

2

How Did I Do?

3

Indicator Projected2000

Actual2000

Age Dependency Ratio 59.7

Single-Parent Households

9.6%

Female LFP Rate 54.0%

Children in Out-of-Home Care

26,000

AFDC Recipients 700,000

61.812.3%

63.1%28,000

Ignore the Spike!

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Pe

r 1

,00

0 C

hild

ren

0-1

8

IL Foster Care

U.S. Foster Care

AFDC: Big Miss!

5

Indicator Projected2000

Actual 2000

Age Dependency Ratio 59.7

Single-Parent Households

9.6%

Female LFP Rate 54.0%

Children in Out-of-Home Care

26,000

AFDC Recipients 700,000

61.812.3%

63.1%28,000Can that

be right?

Assistance to Needy Families: Illinois

6

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AFDCAFDC/TANF

Recip

ien

ts (

00

0's

) Projection

Sources: Testa, M. et al. (1979). Human Services in Illinois: Trends and Projections to the Year 2000. Chicago: Task Force on the Future of IllinoisStatistical Abstracts of the United States: 1980-2012


7

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AFDCAFDC/TANF

Recip

ien

ts (

00

0's

)

Actual

Projection



8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AFDCAFDC/TANF

Recip

ien

ts (

00

0's

) Projection



9

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AFDCAFDC/TANF

Recip

ien

ts (

00

0's

) Projection


And the Foster Caseload Didn’t Explode!

10

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Per

1,0

00 C

hild

ren

0-1

8

Pe

r 1

,00

0 C

hild

ren

0-1

8

Predicted

IV-A/ IV-E

Foster Care

AFDC/TANF

Potential Futures Framework

11

CONSTRAINED(Narrow Scope of Public Interest)

UNCONSTRAINED(Diffuse Scope of Public Interest)

Well-Being

Safety

32%

34%

33%

Potential Futures Framework

12



CO

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Well-Being

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Child Welfare Outcomes

13



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M(A

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Well-Being

Safety

Permanence

Health

Education

Continuity Stability

Permanency Options

14



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M(A

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Well-Being

SafetyF

amily

Pre

serv

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n

Stability

Info

rmal

Kin

ship

Car

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Ado

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n

Gua

rdia

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Kin

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Car

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Wicked Problems Crystal Ball

15



CO

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ITY

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M(A

chievement-U

niversalism)

VOLUNTARY(Altruism)

TRADITION(Deference)

MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Libertarianism

EgalitarianismCommunitarianism

Corporatism

Three Welfare Democracies

16

Libertarian Egalitarian Corporatist

Prototypical Society United States Sweden Italy

Role of: Community Medium Low High

Market High Medium Low

State Low High Medium

Basis of Solidarity Individualism Universalism Familism

Source: Esping-Anderson, G. (2006). The three worlds of welfare capitalism.” In C. Pierson & F.G. Castles (Eds.), The welfare state reader, second edition. Cambridge: Polity Press;

Potential Political Futures

17



CO

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M(A

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niversalism)

VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

United States

SwedenPort-Gamble Tribe

Italy

Income Inequality

18

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

United StatesSwedenItalySpain

Sh

are

To

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% i

n T

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Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the 21st century. Cambridge: Harvard University Press – Technical Appendix http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c

1977

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c


Income Inequality

19

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

United StatesSwedenItalySpain

Sh

are

To

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% i

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co

me

Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the 21st century. Cambridge: Harvard University Press – Technical Appendix http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c

1977



20

Where U.S. Could Be in 20 Years

Where the class distributes on where they think the US could be in 20 years



CO

MM

UN

ITY

(Par

ticu

lari

sm-A

scri

ptio

n)

SY

ST

EM

(Achievem

ent-Universalism

)

VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Libertarianism


Corporatism

Three Welfare Democracies

21

Libertarian Egalitarian Corporatist

Nation United States Sweden Italy

Role of: Community Medium Low High

Market High Medium Low

State Low High Medium

Basis of Solidarity Individualism Universalism Familism

LFPR of Mothers aged 25 to 54 with Two + children (2000)

Fertility Rate (2002) 2.0 1.6 1.3

Child Poverty Rate (2000) 18.8% 3.8% 15.4%

Source: Esping-Anderson, G. (2006). The three worlds of welfare capitalism.” In C. Pierson & F.G. Castles (Eds.), The welfare state reader, second edition. Cambridge: Polity Press;www.bit.ly/1fLik8W

65% 42%82%

http://www.bit.ly/1fLik8W

Extension of the Life Course

22Source: Centers for Disease Control

Currently those 65 or older comprise 13% of the population; by 2030 the proportion is projected to rise to 21%.

In Illinois, the projected rise is from 12% to 18% of the state population.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf

Is Demography Destiny?

The old-age dependency ratio for Illinois in 2030 will look like Sweden’s ratio in 2010.

23

Total U.S. Expenditures & Projections

Health Care

Old Age

Defense

Other

Family & Children

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1960_2019USb_15s2li0181097_582cs_41t10t00t30t80t 24

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1960_2019USb_15s2li0181097_582cs_41t10t00t30t80t




Wicked Problems Crystal Ball

25



CO

MM

UN

ITY

(Par

ticu

lari

sm-A

scri

ptio

n)S

YS

TE

M(A

chievement-U

niversalism)

VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Libertarianism


Corporatism

26

More Efficiency

More Innovations

More Citizen Participation

More Integration of Clientele

Strengths of the Voluntary Sector

Post-Permanency World: Illinois

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

In Substitute Care Adoption or Guardianship

Nu

mb

er

of

Ch

ild

ren

1997: 50,843 in care12,068 AA/SG

1985:13,818 in care3,706 in AA

2011:15,224 in care34,742 AA/SG

Source: N. Rolock (2012) Post-Permanency in Illinois, Jane Addams College of Social Work. DCFS Administrative data as

of 6/30/2011

Kinship & Traditional Foster Care

Adoption and Guardianship

27

28

Trends in the Accordion Family

Ratio of Foster Care to Kinship Care Placement among Children living Out-of-Home 18-months After Maltreatment Report: 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, United States

Kinship Care Foster Care 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

NSCAW INSCAW II

p <.01

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8.3 6.8

33.1

17.2

8.2

30.6

46.1

4.93.1

20.5

9.8

5.1

24.1

56.1

NSCAW I

NSCAW II

Changes on Caseworker Reported Family Risk Factors Among Children Reported to the Child Welfare System in 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, United States

*p <.05; **p <.01; ***p <.001 NSCAW I N=4.997; NSCAW II N=4,669

Wei

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***

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0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

Rate

per

1,0

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Illinois Investigates the Same Per-CapitaVolume of Alleged Maltreatment Cases as the Balance of the U.S

Rate per 1,000 Children

Data Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Administration on Children, Youth and Families, Children's Bureau, www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb Data current as of July 2012

Illinois: 39.0 per 1,000

Balance of US: 39.1 per 1,000

31

http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb

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But Illinois Removes Children at Half the Rate as the Rest of the US

Rate per 1,000 Children

Data Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Administration on Children, Youth and Families, Children's Bureau, www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb Data current as of July 2012

Illinois: 1.7 per 1,000

Balance of US: 3.5 per 1,000

32

http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb

33

Baseline Attributes Illinois(N=818)

Rest of Nation(N=2795) Ratio

Weighted % Weighted %Child Placement ** Biological/Adoptive Parent 83%

(491)76%

(1337) Kin 13%

(182)14%(615)

1 : 1

Foster/Congregate care 4%(145)

10%(824)

4 : 10

** p<.01, two-tailed chi-square test

Illinois Sample vs. Rest of U.S. Sample Substantiated Cases, 2008-2009

Comparison of Behavioral/Emotional or Cognitive Problems Among Children 6 to 14 years old Reported to the Child Welfare System in 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, U.S.

63.8 62.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NSCAW I NSCAW II

Wei

gh

ted

%

Behavioral/Cognitive Problems among School Age Children

NSCAW I N=2,563; NSCAW II N=1,578

Brokering Partnerships

35



CO

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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Philanthropies

Public Agencies IV-E Waivers

Consent Decrees

Voluntary Associations Family Support

Kinship Care

Faith-Based Groups Charitable Giving Good

Samaritans

For-Profit Firms Corporate Giving

Social Impact Bonds

Private and Public Universities

CCAI

Mediating Structures

36



CO

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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Meritor

ious i

n Our

Altr

uism

Kinship

Altr

uism

v.

Paid

Fos

ter C

are


37



CO

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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Just in Our Acknowledgement of Altruism

Kinship Altruism Subsidized Guardianship


38



CO

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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Deference to the Meritorious

Evidence-BasedAuthority-Based


39



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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Just in Commanding Deference

Catholic Charities v. State of Illinois

“Who Am I to Judge.”

Pope Francis, 2013


40



CO

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M(A

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VOLUNTARY(Altruism)


MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Integrity of Agency R

elationships

Free riders

Gamesters


41



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MARKET(Merit)

STATE(Justice)

Well-Being

Safety

Just in Our Dedication to Well-Being

Responsibility AccountabilityResponsibility

Illinois Birth Thru Three (IB3)

IV-E Waiver

42

Deference to the meritoriousEvidence-Based over Authority-Based

Just in Our Acknowledge of AltruismSubsidized Guardianship over Kinship Diversion

Dedicated to Well-BeingResponsible but not accountable for children’s

well-being: IB3Protecting the Integrity of Principal-Agent

RelationshipsRooting out gamesters & free-riders

Just in Our Commanding of Deference“Who am I to judge.”- Pope Francis

Professional Altruists

school of social work

Documents

task force

needy families

human services

afdc recipients700

singleparent households9

male lfp rate54

home care26

primary problems