School Place Planning Meeting

Shrewsbury Area

Monday, 6 June 2016

Shrewsbury Training & Development Centre

Welcome and introductions

Purpose of Meeting

• Outline the Shropshire position in respect of school place

planning, through to 2026 - the end of the current ‘Plan Period’

• Contextualise against the Government’s proposed changes in

education policy

• Review the forecast position for the Shrewsbury school place

planning area

• Seek the views of the key local educational stakeholders on the

ways forward in securing additional provision of school places

in the planning area

• Outline and agree the next steps

Legal Duties

• Council has a statutory duty to plan, organise and commission sufficient

school places for every school age child in the county whose parents

choose to educate them in the state funded sector

• As strategic commissioner the Council forecasts the level of demand and

supply of school places, providing the right number of places in the right

locations at the right time

• Forecasting is a complex task, taking into account: school capacities,

current pupil numbers, known pre-school children and planned housing

developments

• Council employs tried and tested methodology for forecasting future

demand

• Increasingly challenging as the educational landscape changes, in

particular as schools move out of maintained control

National Context

• Education White paper – Educational Excellence Everywhere – indicates

councils will retain legal responsibility for ensuring all children have a

school place

• All schools still expected to become, or be in the process of becoming

academies in the next 6 years, despite the announcement on 6 May

• Move to a national fair funding formula from 2019/20

• LGA have raised concerns about the limited powers of Councils to

properly discharge place planning duties - indications are that legislative

changes are being proposed

• Councils cannot currently determine or change the number of places or

pupil range of academies

• Ongoing commissioning role will be wholly dependent on legislative

change and effective working relationships with other providers ie

academies and multi-academy trusts

School Place Planning Document

• Document circulated to all schools and academies in February 2016

• Available on the Shropshire Learning Gateway at

https://www.shropshirelg.net/services/school-place-planning/

• Provides a position statement on arrangements for education provision

in Shropshire based on current forecasts

• Provides overview of likely supply and demand issues in the coming

years and identifies areas in which there are forecast pressures on

school places

• Also highlights areas of falling rolls and potential sustainability issues

• Engages with education stakeholders in the strategic process for school

place planning in these specific areas

• Has led to a round of initial meetings in a number of school place

planning areas

School and Pupil Demographics

• Nationally, Government has identified the need for an additional

600,000 school places up to 2020

• Shropshire is bucking the national trend for pupil growth with a

forecast demographic decline in pupil numbers over the same period

– currently estimated at 3.2% (excluding housing development)

• Individual schools and communities of schools are forecast to see a

rise in surplus places by 2020

• Out of Shropshire’s 16 place planning areas, 5 will experience

pressure on pupil places by 2026, due primarily to housing

developments – Shrewsbury is one of the 5

• However, within these areas the position for individual schools will be

contrasting, with some having pressure for places and others facing

falling school rolls and possible sustainability issues

Shrewsbury Planning Area

Shrewsbury Primary Catchment Areas

Shrewsbury School Planning Areas

South & West

North

Centre & East

Housing Developments

• The forecasts used in the data analyses include housing developments

that had permission by 31 March 2015

• Other applications that have not received permission by this date or

have been submitted since are monitored and included in the long term

forecasts

• The housing factor used at primary level for the Shrewsbury planning

area is 0.1770 ie for every 100 dwellings an average of 18 primary

pupils are expected from the development

• The housing factor used at secondary level for the Shrewsbury planning

area is 0.1414 ie an average of 14 secondary pupils per 100 dwellings

• The funding for any capital works due to large scale housing is

expected, by the Government, to be funded by developer contributions

Shrewsbury Town SAMDev

• The Site Allocations and Management of Development Plan (SAMDev)

for the town has identified a housing guideline of 6,500 dwellings by 2026

• Allocations of around 3,760 dwellings have been made and are shown by

development on the next slide

• Analysed over the 3 school planning areas, the 3,760 dwellings are

distributed as follows:

North Shrewsbury – 330 dwellings

Central & East Shrewsbury – 1,930 dwellings

South & West Shrewsbury – 1,500 dwellings

• It is anticipated that the balance of around 2,740 dwellings will be

delivered through what is termed ‘windfall development’ over the Plan

Period to 2026

• Work is now underway to partially review the Local Plan, which will

identify development needs across Shropshire up to 2036

In and Out of Area Analysis

• School expansions are required where current provision

does not meet the demand for catchment area pupils

• Reminder: right number of places in the right locations at

the right time

• Displacement can be expected where school numbers

include significant numbers of children from outside the

school’s catchment area

• Displacement can benefit schools who experience

catchment area children historically moving out of area

and can therefore support sustainability

Pupil Forecasts for Shrewsbury Planning Area

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22

Shrewsbury Planning AreaTotal Number on Roll 2010-15 and Forecast to 2023

Primary Age Range 4-11 (7 year groups) Secondary Age Range 11-16 (5 year groups)

Primary Schools Total Net Capacity Secondary School Net Capacity

Pupil Number Forecasts

Schools

Current Forecasts

Net Capacity Admission NumberNumber on Roll

October 2015

2016/1

7

2017/1

8

2018/1

9

2019/2

0

2020/2

1

2021/2

2

2022/2

3

North Shrewsbury

Grange Primary 420 60 227 234 242 243 235

Greenacres Primary 210 30 135 143 143 138 134

Harlescott Junior 360 90 340 347 351 359 373

Mount Pleasant Primary 238 34 263 258 263 260 267

Sundorne Infant 270 90 270 269 268 274 285

Total North Shrewsbury 1,498 304 1,235 1,251 1,267 1,274 1,294

Centre & East Shrewsbury

Belvidere Primary 238 34 230 225 223 207 191

Coleham Primary 420 60 413 408 414 399 407

Crowmoor Primary 210 30 183 200 211 221 225

Greenfields Primary 350 50 352 355 354 367 367

Martin Wilson Primary 238 34 190 201 211 221 230

Mereside CE Primary 350 50 236 241 257 249 262

Shrewsbury Catholic Cathedral Primary 210 30 138 141 141 141 140

St. Giles' CE Primary 322 46 326 318 316 290 280

Wilfred Owen Primary 210 30 206 205 213 209 207

Total Centre & East Shrewsbury 2,548 364 2,274 2,294 2,340 2,304 2,309

South & West Shrewsbury

Meole Brace CE Primary and Nursery 350 50 319 327 347 334 328

Oxon CE Primary 420 60 411 427 449 457 475

Radbrook Primary 315 45 306 311 302 288 282

St. George's Junior 360 90 353 348 358 357 361

Woodfield Infant 270 90 264 265 249 247 213

Total South & West Shrewsbury 1,715 335 1,653 1,678 1,705 1,683 1,659

Rural Shrewsbury

Oakmeadow CE Primary and Nursery 420 60 343 363 384 402 397

St. Lucia's CE Primary 112 16 104 104 107 108 95

Total Rural Shrewsbury 532 76 447 467 491 510 492

Total Shrewsbury Primary 6,293 1,079 5,609 5,690 5,803 5,771 5,754

Belvidere School 840 168 814 804 810 816 822 820 841 872

Meole Brace School 1,215 243 1,210 1,217 1,215 1,234 1,252 1,260 1,276 1,292

The Priory School 840 168 837 838 838 849 845 845 856 868

Shrewsbury Academy 1,185 237 835 823 828 866 873 884 909 929

Total Shrewsbury Secondary 4,080 816 3,696 3,682 3,691 3,765 3,792 3,809 3,882 3,961

Note: The changes to the capacities and PANs for Mount Pleasant Primary and Martin Wilson are not reflected in the table above

Shrewsbury Primary

Catchment Area Pupils Other Shrewsbury Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places

1,683 pupils

27.6%

213 pupils

3.5%

612 pupils

10.1%

Primary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015

Total Shrewsbury

Catchment (excl Cathedral

School) = 6,083 pupils

3,575 pupils

58.8%

Primary Pupil Number Forecasts

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Academic Year

Total Schools' Net Capacity

October 2015 Numbers on Roll

Total Pupil Numbers Forecast

Shrewsbury Secondary

136 pupils

3.3%

418 pupils

10.3%

Secondary Catchment Area Analysis – October 2015

Total Shrewsbury

Catchment = 4,080 pupils

3,526 pupils

86.4%

Catchment Area Pupils Out of Area Pupils Unfilled Places

Secondary Pupil Forecasts

3400

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Academic Year

Secondary School - Pupil Numbers Forecast

Total Secondary NumbersForecast

Total Schools' Net Capacity

October 2015 Numbers onRoll

Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area

• Localised issues continue to be proactively managed

• North – additional places at Mount Pleasant and Sundorne Infant in

the short to medium term to meet the increase in forecast demand

• Centre & East – additional provision at Mereside in longer term to

meet demand – consideration towards enhancement of other schools

to meet increased demand resulting from housing developments

• South & West – additional places required in medium to longer term

to meet demand – limited scope to expand existing schools may

require new school provision

• Secondary – additional places will be required in the medium to

longer term to meet demand from in-area secondary age pupils

Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area

• Primary school place requirement in Shrewsbury across the

plan period to 2025/26 is for 422 places forecast as follows:

• Secondary school place requirement in Shrewsbury across the

plan period to 2025/26 is for 370 places forecast as follows:

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

32

C&E

31

N

117

S&W

90C&E/S&W

90C&E/S&W

62C&E/S&W

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26

60 150 160

Shrewsbury School Place Planning Area

Considerations:

• Location and completion of housing developments relative to the school

sites

• Constraints and/or limitations for expansion on current sites in Shrewsbury

• Possible re-designation of existing accommodation back into classrooms

• Identification of other options and/or sites in the town

• Efficient and effective use of capital resources

• Ongoing discussions/dialogue with schools in both primary and secondary

phases

• Consultation on catchment area reorganisation

• Looking beyond the current plan period and future-proofing for growth in

the town post 2026

• Regular reviews based on up-to-date and refreshed data eg what

happened in 2016 admissions and transfer rounds

Any further comments and/or perspectives?