schooling policies for quality and economic growth eric a. hanushek stanford university may 2013
TRANSCRIPT
SCHOOLING POLICIES FOR QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Eric A. HanushekStanford University
May 2013
Key Questions
1. Does achievement matter?
YES
2. Is Spain competitive?
NO
3. How is Spain doing?
NOT WELL
4. Are there things to be done?
YES
Does achievement matter? and Is Spain competitive?
Cognitive Skills and Long Run Economic Growth
Years of Schooling and Economic Growth
Without quality control
With quality control
PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S
hang
hai
Hon
g K
ong
Tai
wan
Liec
hten
stei
n
Japa
n
Net
herla
nds
New
Zea
land
Aus
tral
ia
Est
onia
Den
mar
k
Nor
way
Slo
vak_
Rep
ublic
Pol
and
Cze
ch_R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Uni
ted_
Sta
tes
Por
tuga
l
Italy
Lith
uani
a
Gre
ece
Dub
ai (
UA
E)
Tur
key
Aze
rbai
jan
Rom
ania
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Kaz
akhs
tan
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Alb
ania
Indo
nesi
a
Per
u
Kyr
gyzs
tan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S
hang
hai
Hon
g K
ong
Tai
wan
Liec
hten
stei
n
Japa
n
Net
herla
nds
New
Zea
land
Aus
tral
ia
Est
onia
Den
mar
k
Nor
way
Slo
vak_
Rep
ublic
Pol
and
Cze
ch_R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Uni
ted_
Sta
tes
Por
tuga
l
Italy
Lith
uani
a
Gre
ece
Dub
ai (
UA
E)
Tur
key
Aze
rbai
jan
Rom
ania
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Kaz
akhs
tan
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Alb
ania
Indo
nesi
a
Per
u
Kyr
gyzs
tan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
PISA Mathematics Achievement, 2009S
hang
hai
Hon
g K
ong
Tai
wan
Liec
hten
stei
n
Japa
n
Net
herla
nds
New
Zea
land
Aus
tral
ia
Est
onia
Den
mar
k
Nor
way
Slo
vak_
Rep
ublic
Pol
and
Cze
ch_R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Uni
ted_
Sta
tes
Por
tuga
l
Italy
Lith
uani
a
Gre
ece
Dub
ai (
UA
E)
Tur
key
Aze
rbai
jan
Rom
ania
Chi
le
Mex
ico
Kaz
akhs
tan
Arg
entin
a
Bra
zil
Alb
ania
Indo
nesi
a
Per
u
Kyr
gyzs
tan
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Iceland Finland EU 20200
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Improvement in Achievement
bil
lio
n €
Present Value of Gains to GDP for Spain
Iceland Finland EU 20200
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Improvement in Achievement
bil
lio
n €
6.2% 5.0%
20.2%
Present Value of Gains to GDP for Spain
How is Spain doing?
Latv
ia
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Port
ug
al
Hon
g K
on
g
Germ
an
y
Pola
nd
Lie
ch
ten
ste
in
Slo
ven
ia
Colo
mb
ia
Lit
hu
an
ia
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Sin
gap
ore
Sw
itzerl
an
d
Gre
ece
Mexic
o
Isra
el
Fin
lan
d
Italy
New
Zeala
nd
Den
mark
Kore
a,
Rep
.
Hu
ng
ary
Iran
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Taiw
an
(C
hin
es..
.
Belg
ium
Can
ad
a
Cyp
rus
Au
str
alia
Jord
an
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
.
Ind
on
esia
Au
str
ia
Sp
ain
Icela
nd
Jap
an
Neth
erl
an
ds
Tu
nis
ia
Arg
en
tin
a
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Achievement Growth, 1995-2009
Are there things to be done?
Resource Policies
• Little evidence of success• Cross country evidence• Within country – developed• Within country – developing
Resources and Performance across Countries
350
400
450
500
550
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Math performance in PISA 2003
Cumulative educational expenditure per student
Mexico
Belgium
Iceland
FranceSweden
SwitzerlandDenmark
AustriaNorway
USA
ItalyPortugal
Spain
Korea
GermanyIreland
Czech Rep.
HungaryPoland
Slovak Rep.
Greece
Finland
NetherlandsCanada
Japan
AustraliaR 2 = 0.01
R 2 = 0.15
Resource Policies
• Little evidence of successle evidence of success• Cross country evidence• Within country – developed• Within country – developing
• Consistent with detailed analysis• class size• school characteristics
Resource Policies
• Does not say “resources never have effect”
• Does not say “resources cannot have effect”
No expectation within current incentive structure
Teacher Quality
• Teachers most important input• No identifiable characteristics
• Master’s degrees• Experience*• Certification• Preparation• Professional development
• Observable through both student performance and supervisor ratings
• Cannot regulate and pay on characteristics
Institutional Reforms Supported by Evidence
• Centralized exams
• Accountability
• Autonomy/decentralization
Institutional Reforms Supported by Evidence
• Centralized exams
• Accountability
• Autonomy/decentralization
• Choice
• Direct performance incentives
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
low estimate of teacher effectiveness
Percent deselected
s.d
. per
form
ance
gai
n
Iceland
Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness
Percent deselected
s.d
. per
form
ance
gai
n
Iceland
Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
high estimate of teacher effectiveness low estimate of teacher effectiveness
Percent deselected
s.d
. per
form
ance
gai
n
IcelandFinland
Alternative Estimates of Least Effective Teachers(United States distribution)
Key Questions
1. Does achievement matter?
YES
2. Is Spain competitive?
NO
3. How is Spain doing?
NOT WELL
4. Are there things to be done?
YES
Australia
Australia
Belgium
BelgiumCanada
Canada
Finland
Finland
France
FranceUK
UK
GermanyGermany
Italy
Italy
JapanJapan
Korea
KoreaNetherlands
Netherlands
N. Zealand
N. Zealand
Norway
Norway
Sweden
Sweden
USA
USA
460
480
500
520
540
560
1975 2000
Trends in Test Scores
Changes in Growth Rates vs. Changes in Test Scores