schrodinger's investments: how to evaluate business cases in this crazy world
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How to evaluate business cases in this crazy world.TRANSCRIPT
Schrödinger's Investment
Schrodinger’s cat
Schrödinger's cat is a thought experiment, sometimes described as a paradox. It illustrates the theory, that unless proved otherwise, object exists in more states at the same time. The scenario presents a cat that may be both alive and dead, this state being tied to an earlier random event.
Although the original "experiment" was imaginary, similar principles have been researched and used in practical applications.
The thought experiment is also often featured in theoretical discussions of the interpretations of quantum mechanics.
What if business became wave
And you always count on linear
behaviour
Let’s assume, that outcome of an investment exist in two different states: success and fail.
RETAIL REDESIGN
AUTOPROVISIONING
SELFCARE PLATFORM
And you only judge choices based on performance against these stable mega trends. Could it maximize your chance to find your business in the success state?
„I will be happy if you suggest more to make a
great list together“
There are always couple of underlaying mega trends that influence the ecosystem very constantly. These are the only linearities you can always count with.
• Motivation one: Avoid the pain (e.g. complexity, effectivity, time consumption, physical work, danger).• Motivation two: Pursue of pleasure (e.g. Inner proud, relaxation, free time, wealth, sex)• More internet with more capabilities with more and more intuitive user interface• Less transactional stores needed• More customer interactions needs to be automated• Internet is eating margins from value chains based on limited access to information (e.g. Shopping malls)
limited choice (e.g. Hobby markets) or any other means of material distribution (e.g. 3D printing)• The brands that will stay on top will only be those that customers wants to follow
Internet spawns millions of tiny little apps that are ready to sneak directly into pockets of your customers
Repeat this: I will never again underestimate these bastards.
Albert Einstein did couple of interpretation errors of this theory and plagued some quantum physics conversations until today.
Many years later, Richard Feynman made Einstein's suggestion into a nuclear explosion!
SOUNDS LEGIT
What happens if all business cases on the planet were correct?
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