science, the big picture, and the petri dish david p. anderson uc berkeley space sciences lab
TRANSCRIPT
Science,The Big Picture,and the Petri Dish
David P. AndersonUC Berkeley Space Sciences Lab
Earth as Petri dish
● Human activities– land clearing, logging, hunting, fishing– roads, dams, pollution
● Species extinction ● Global warming
animalsplants
microbes
animalsplants
microbes
animalsplants
microbes
atmosphere
ocean
ecosystems
Possible outcomes
● Everything somehow works out OK● Humans become sustainable
– but massive starvation, loss of many other species
● All large animals become extinct– plants/microbes survive and resume
evolution● Mars scenario
– atmosphere/water lost; total extinction
Bacterial thinking● Priorities:
– Consumption– Reproduction– Growth
● Selfishness (individual, group)● Small conceptual scale
– Temporal– Spatial
The Big Picture
Science as Truth detector
● Reproducibility● Experiment design● No power hierarchy● Constant questioning of assumptions● No ulterior motives
Theorymathematical/
statistical
evidence prediction
Orders of magnitude
10-17 meters = a quark10-14 meters = an atom10-9 meters = a molecule10-5 meters = a cell101 meter = a human being107 meters = the Earth1012 meters = the solar system1017 meters = the milky way galaxy (100,000 light-years)1025 meters = the universe (15 billion years light-years)
Occam's Razor and the Axiomatic method
Is there an analogous basis for ethics?
Zermelo-Frankel Set Theory:
Science respects Mystery
● Quantum mechanics● Chaos theory● Godel's incompleteness theorem
– no theory decides everything– the Continuum Hypothesis
False maybeundecidable
maybe True
Integers (1,2,...),rationals (n/m)
Real numbers(3.14159...)
??< <
The achievements of Science
● Understanding at wide range of scales● There is only one science● It has liberated humanity● It has empowered humanity (for better
or worse)
Science and nature
● The Earth is not the center of the universe
● Humans were not created separately from the rest of nature
● Humans are a part of the web of life, and depend on it for their survival
Our place in the Universe
● Our lifetime is extremely brief● The world is tiny, and we're stuck here● But we have intelligence and creativity
Carl Sagan:Intelligence is the universe's way of understanding itself.
Scientific government
● The War on Drugs– $1 Trillion spent since 1973– 10 times more drug addicts today than in
1973– 2.1 million people in prison, 25% for drugs– 10% of black males are currently in prison– Dutch drug policy (public-health based)
● drug use is 1/3 of U.S. (hard and soft)● incarceration rate is 11% of U.S.
● Sex education– ignorance doesn't work
Game TheoryThe mathematical study of conflict and cooperation.“Rational behavior” == bacterial thinking.Example: The Prisoner's Dilemma:
2, 2
1, 13, 0
0, 3prisoner 1
ffo
don't confess
prisoner 2
confess
confess
don'tconfess
“Nash equilibrium”
Anti-Science and bacterial thinking
● Religion– A society-stabilizing institution
● Chauvinism● Out-of-control Capitalism
● Science is relativistic and unemotional● Science doesn't try to be comforting● Science doesn't provide simple answers● The role of evolution
Why is Science losing?
What can we do?
● Articulate goals● Promote big-picture thinking
– improve education, teach skepticism– promote a scientific belief system– my contribution: volunteer computing
● or use game theory to achieve goals in spite of bacterial thinking