scientific talk on effects of climate variation and young fish
DESCRIPTION
Scientific talk on effects of climate variation and young fish - general ideas about climate effects on marine ecosystems - variations in temperature-zooplankton-North Sea cod - spatial population structure and detecting climate effectsTRANSCRIPT
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Effects of climate variation on young fish
Geir Ottersen
Nordic Climate-Fish 2nd Conference: “Latitudinal changes in marine resources, exploitation and society within the Nordic and adjacent Seas”
15-17 August 2012 in Risør, Norway
general ideas about climate effects on marine ecosystems variations in temperature-zooplankton-North Sea cod spatial population structure and detecting climate effects
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How Does Climate Affect Fish?
Prey
Modified from slide by Ken Drinkwater, IMR Disease
Physiological Effects •Metabolic processes
•Growth
Recruitment Distribution and migration
Predators
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Single climate event causes shift in ecological state
Linear climate signal causes shift in ecological state when climate threshold passed.
Linear ecological response to climate signal
Clim
ate
Time
Ecol
ogic
al
Res
pons
e
Ecological response to climate signal
Ottersen, Stenseth, Hurrell 2004 Climate fluctuations…. Oxford Univ. Press
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Linear ecological response to climate signal
10
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ln
(Rec
ruit
men
t)
Cod at West Greenland
Recruitment
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
SS
T
Year
Temperature
Stein and Borovkov
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Climate induced crash in Peruvian anchovy stock
Human and
Single climate event causes shift in ecological state
El Niño:
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Increasing sea temperatures
M. Llope, Instituto Espanol de Oceanografia Cadiz
Variations in temperature-zooplankton-North Sea cod
M. Edwards, SAHFOS (2008)
Changes in plankton composition May this gradual change cause a shift in ecological state when threshold passed?
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Higher temperatures leading to an increase in the abundance of phytoplankton earlier in the year has changed the food web structure through competitive exclusion of holozooplankton by meroplankton (i.e., less organisms that are planktonic for their entire life cycle, more that are planktonic only during larval stages, thereafter benthic). The result is significantly diminished transfer of energy towards top pelagic predators (e.g. fish) and increased transfer to the benthos.
Shift in transfer of energy from pelagic fish to benthos
ICES STATUS REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC (eds. P.C. Reid and L. Valdes) September 2011
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0
500
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1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Recr
uitm
ent in
milli
ons
Recruitment (age 1)
North Sea cod
G. Dingsør, G. Ottersen et al. In prep
Increasing ambient temperatures for cod IBTS Q1
Mean temperature in region
Age-2 ambient temperature
Age-4 ambient temperature
ICES
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Switch from C. finmarchicus (prefered food of larval cod) towards C. helgolandicus in the North Sea
Edwards et al. 2011. Ecological Status Report, SAHFOS, UK
Calanus finmarchicus female
Calanus helgolandicus female
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Monitoring of plankton at station in the Skagerrak, off Arendal: Sampling of zooplankton: 2 times per month since 1994 WP2 vertical net tows (180µm), 50 – 0 m
Samples recently reanalysed for identification of C. fin and C. hel Aims: - To describe the seasonal and interannual variation in relative proportions of the two species. - Reveal possible causes for the observed variations.
T. Falkenhaug, E. Bagøien, C. Broms, IMR work in prep.
Switch from C. finmarchicus towards C. helgolandicus in the Skagerrak
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Seasonal and interannual variations in ratio of C. finmarchicus/ C. helgolandicus 1= 100% C. finmarchicus (blue) 0=100% C. helgolandicus (red) M
onth
Year
The period of C. helgolandicus dominance (ratio>0.5) has appeared earlier in the season in recent years (2004-2008).
CVI females
T. Falkenhaug, E. Bagøien, C. Broms, IMR work in prep.
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300
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Conclusions • occur in high abundance in spring, while
peaks later in the season at lower abundances.
• The seasonal increase in temperature triggers a shift from a system dominated by to a system dominated by
This shift occurs in June, at ~13 ºC.
• Higher temperatures, earlier in the season will trigger earlier shifts from to
• The stock-recruitment relationship of North Sea cod is not stationary, its shape depends on food (zooplankton) availability and sea temperature
• The change in calanus is bad news for early life stages of cod, which have as preferred food, and is thus negative for recruitment.
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Including spatial population structure helps detect effects of climate on population dynamics
Stocks, i.e. management units, need not be real biological units (populations) but may consist of distinct spawning units with low levels of inter-mixing
Spatial population structure is increasingly recognized in marine fishes: e.g., cod, yellowtail flounder, herring
Climate effects are expected to be more difficult to detect if spatial structure is unaccounted for
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Example from current research on Skagerrak coastal cod (using beach seine data on 0-group)
Larval SST
Estimated mean and 95% Credible Intervals for β.sst:
β.ss
t
With population structure
Lauren Rogers, CEES UiO
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Larval SST
Estimated mean and 95% Credible Intervals for β.sst:
β.ss
t
Ignoring population structure!
With population structure
Lauren Rogers, CEES UiO
Temperature effect appears weaker and becomes harder to detect if we ignore population structure.
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Image: Glynn Gorick for ICES WG Cod and Climate Change
Thanks, that’s all