scope of econometrics { from a mathematical point of viewscope of econometrics { from a mathematical...

Econometrics Master Course: Methods 1. Econometrics in General

Scope of econometrics – from a mathematical point of view

Martin Treiber 1 of 10

General procedure of an econometric analysis

Information flow of an econometric model

Linking

Chaining and feedback

Models of time evolution (“dynamic models”)

I Special case of chaining: The endogenous variables at time t arethe exogenous variables at the next time step t+ ∆t

I The model itself is generally the same in all steps

I Sometimes, however, it has time dependent parameters(non-autonomous model)

Application: Calculating the external costs of road traffic

Model for limited growth

Limited growth according to the solution of the differential equation dydt =

(1 − y(t)

)for the initial value y0 = 3 at the moment in time t0 = 1950

and the model parameters growth time constant τ = 10 and saturation

ys = 60. The result might represent the penetration rate for passenger

cars per person in %.Martin Treiber 8 of 10

Structure of a modal split model

I Exogenous variables xkj : influencing factors j for mode k

I Endogenous variables yk: frequency of utilization for mode k

Mode choice for two alternatives:by bike or by public transport (PT)

Age Sextimeneededbike

costsbike

totaltraveltimePT

costsPT

choicebike

choicePT

Variables x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 y1i y2iPerson 1 30 w 20 min 0e 30 min 1.00e 0 1Person 2 24 m 11 min 0e 20 min 2.00e 1 0Person 3 27 m 34 min 0e 15 min 2.00e 0 1...

......

These data can be obtained from interviews.

scope of econometrics { from a mathematical point of viewscope of econometrics { from a mathematical...

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