scoring big: do-it-yourself recency, frequency, and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Scoring Big: Do-It-Yourself Recency, Frequency, and Monetary Scoring &
Analytics for The Raiser's Edge PRESENTED BY
JOSHUA BEKERMAN, bCRE Information and Technology
Services Manager American Indian College Fund
STEVE BESHUK Director
Business Intelligence Group JCA
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Session Goals • Encourage data-driven decision making • Illustrate the tools (and science) you can
use to DIY • Motivate you to continue at home
When you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind…
- Lord Kelvin, British Physicist
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Do It Yourself RFM Scoring
3 #bbcon
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Tools • The Raiser’s Edge • MS Excel • MS Access • Crystal Reports • SQL Server
4 #bbcon
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RFM • Recency
• When was the last time they donated?
• Frequency • How often and for how long have they donated?
• Monetary • How much have they donated?
5 #bbcon
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6 #bbcon
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Recency • When was the last time they donated?
• RE = Last Gift Date
7 #bbcon
Gave in last 12 months 20 Gave 13-24 months ago 15 Gave 25-36 months ago 10 Gave 37-48 months ago 5 Gave 49-60 months ago 2 Gave more than 60 months ago 1 No giving 0
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Frequency • How often and for how long have they donated?
• RE = First Gift Date & Last Gift Date
8 #bbcon
Multiplier 20+ years 3.0 15 – 19 years 2.5 10 – 14 years 2.0 5 – 9 years 1.5 < 5 years 1.0 No giving 0
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Frequency • How often and for how long have they donated?
• RE = Summary Information – Total number of Gifts
9 #bbcon
# Gifts/# Years 100% 10 90 – 99% 8 80 – 89% 6 70 – 79% 4 60 – 69% 2 < 60% 1
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Frequency • How often and for how long have they donated?
• RE = First Gift Date & Last Gift Date
10 #bbcon
Multiplier 20+ years 3.0 15 – 19 years 2.5 10 – 14 years 2.0 5 – 9 years 1.5 < 5 years 1.0 No giving 0
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Monetary • How much have they donated?
• RE = Largest Gift Amount and Total Giving
11 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
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Export to Excel
12 #bbcon
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Recency Create formula in Excel – Final R Score =(YEAR(NOW())-YEAR(C2))*12+MONTH(NOW())-MONTH(C2) =2014 - (Year of last gift) x 12 + 9 – (Month of last gift)
13 #bbcon
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Recency
• =IF(AND(E2>=1,E2<13),20,(IF(AND(E2>=13,E2<=24),15,IF(AND(E2>=25,E2<=36),10,IF(AND(E2>=37,E2<=48),5,IF(AND(E2>=49,E2<=60),2,IF(E2>60,1,0)))))))
14 #bbcon
Gave in last 12 months 20 Gave 13-24 months ago 15 Gave 25-36 months ago 10 Gave 37-48 months ago 5 Gave 49-60 months ago 2 Gave more than 60 months ago 1 No giving 0
Create formula in Excel – Final R Score
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R Create formula in Excel – Final R Score
15 #bbcon
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Frequency Determine Multiplier: Calculate # years – Calculate Multiplier
• RE = First Gift Date & Last Gift Date
16 #bbcon
20+ years 3.0 15 – 19 years 2.5 10 – 14 years 2.0 5 – 9 years 1.5 < 5 years 1.0 No giving 0
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Frequency Determine Multiplier: Calculate # years – Calculate Multiplier
• =YEAR(C2)-YEAR(B2)
17 #bbcon
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Frequency
• =VLOOKUP(I2,Frequency!A:B,2,FALSE)
18 #bbcon
20+ years 3.0 15 – 19 years 2.5 10 – 14 years 2.0 5 – 9 years 1.5 < 5 years 1.0 No giving 0
Determine Multiplier: Calculate # years – Calculate Multiplier
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Frequency Gifts per Year: Calculate Gifts/Year – Determine Gifts/Year Score
• =(H2/I2)*100
19 #bbcon
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Frequency Gifts per Year: Calculate Gifts/Year – Determine Gifts/Year Score
• =IF(AND(J2>=0,J2<59.99),1,(IF(AND(J2>=60,J2<=69),2,IF(AND(J2>=70,J2<=79),4,IF(AND(J2>=80,J2<=89),6,IF(AND(J2>=90,J2<=99),8,IF(J2>99,10,0)))))))
20 #bbcon
# Gifts/# Years 100% 10 90 – 99% 8 80 – 89% 6 70 – 79% 4 60 – 69% 2 < 60% 1
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Frequency Create final F score: Gifts/Year * Multiplier
• =K2*L2
21 #bbcon
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Monetary
• RE = Largest Gift Amount and Total Giving
22 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
Largest Gift Score + Total Giving Score
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Monetary
23 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
Largest Gift Score + Total Giving Score
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Monetary
24 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
=IF(AND(O2>0,O2<500),1,(IF(AND(O2>=500,O2<=999),5,IF(AND(O2>=1000,O2<=1999),10,IF(AND(O2>=2000,O2<=4999),15,IF(O2>=5000,25,0))))))
Largest Gift
Total Giving
Largest Gift Score + Total Giving Score
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Monetary
25 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
Largest Gift Score + Total Giving Score
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Monetary
• =IF(AND(N2>5000,N2<=9999),5,(IF(AND(N2>=10000,N2<=19999),15,IF(N2>=20000,25,0))))
26 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
Largest Gift Score + Total Giving Score
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Monetary
27 #bbcon
$5,000+ largest gift 25 $2,000 - $4,999 largest gift 15 $1,000 - $1,999 largest gift 10 $500 - $999 largest gift 5 < $500 1 No giving 0 $20,000+ total giving 25 $10,000 - $19,999 total giving 15 $5,000 - $9,999 total giving 5
Largest Gift
Total Giving
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RFM
28 #bbcon
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Import ConsID Category Description Date Comments
2 RFM Score 70.0 10/7/14 3 RFM Score 59.0 10/7/14 4 RFM Score 75.0 10/7/14 5 RFM Score 70.0 10/7/14 6 RFM Score 29.0 10/7/14 7 RFM Score 80.0 10/7/14 8 RFM Score 26.5 10/7/14
10 RFM Score 85.0 10/7/14
29 #bbcon
5,15,50 5,15,50 5,15,50
5,15,50
5,15,50 5,15,50
5,15,50 5,15,50
10 R Score 5 10/7/14 10 F Score 30 10/7/17 10 M Score 50 10/7/14
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Using the RFM Scores
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Be Curious
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Create Segments • Analytical Thinking: Aggregate what is
alike and disaggregate that which is different
• Create histogram to evaluate visual breaks
• Use Excel Data Analysis TookPak • How many “bins” should you have?
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Histogram • Bin formula, using Josh’s data…
• Max value = 100 • Min value = 0 • Range (Max-Min) = 100 • # Samples (n) = 5079 • # Categories (Sqrt(n)) = 71.2671 • Category width (Range/# Categories) = 100/71.2671 = 1.4 • Adjusted (make it usable) = 2 • Bin width = 2
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Histogram • Create two columns in Excel
• RFM scores • Bins
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Histogram • Open the Data Analysis Toolpak and
select Histogram
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Histogram • Input Range = RFM scores • Bin Range = the column you created • Select Chart and Cumulative Percentage
and select OK
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Histogram
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The Data Suggest Three Groups • Group1: RFM <= 20 • Group2: RFM >20 and <= 30 • Group3: RFM > 30
Now how do we treat them?
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Using Segments: Testing • Ways to test
• Guess–build–test–fix • a.k.a. tinkering
• A/B test • Change one factor at a time
• Design of Experiments (DOE) • Formal method for systematically testing changes • Test multiple changes at once • Tests the change itself and the interrelatedness of the
changes
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DOE Four Steps 1. Design the experiment 2. Collect the data 3. Analyze the results 4. Conclusion and recommendations
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Design the Experiment • Testing three factors
• 0 = current • 1 = experimental
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 4 0 1 1 5 1 0 0 6 1 0 1 7 1 1 0 8 1 1 1
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Design the Experiment
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 4 0 1 1 5 1 0 0 6 1 0 1 7 1 1 0 8 1 1 1
Despite running only half of the experiments, we tested every possible combination!
Prem
ium
1 Expt4 Expt7 0 Expt1 Expt6
0 1 Envelope Si
gnat
ure 1 Expt4 Expt6
0 Expt1 Expt7 0 1 Envelope Pr
emiu
m 1 Expt7 Expt4
0 Expt1 Expt6 0 1 Signature
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Design the Experiment • Randomly assign members of each
segments to one of the four experimental groups
• Create the appeal and package codes • Send it
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Collect the Data
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift
1 0 0 0 $200 2 0 0 1
4 0 1 1 $215 5 1 0 0
6 1 0 1 $265 7 1 1 0 $250 8 1 1 1
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Analyze the Results
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift
1,4 0 0.5 0.5 $207.50 6,7 1 0.5 0.5 $257.50
Effect of Envelope = $ 50.00
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift 1 0 0 0 $200 4 0 1 1 $215 6 1 0 1 $265 7 1 1 0 $250
Average of Envelope for exp. 1 & 4
Premium and Signature are equal, they are “held constant” – so the
difference is the effect of Envelope
Average gift amount for exp. 1 & 4
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Analyze the Results Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift
1,4 0 0.5 0.5 $207.50 6,7 1 0.5 0.5 $257.50
Effect of Envelope $ 50.00
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift
1,6 0.5 0 0.5 $232.50 4,7 0.5 1 0.5 $232.50
Effect of Premium $ -
Experiment Envelope Premium Signature Avg. Gift
1,7 0.5 0.5 0 $225.00 4,6 0.5 0.5 1 $240.00
Effect of Signature $ 15.00
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Conclusions and Recommendations • You have the quantified effects… • …make data-driven decisions
• Envelope had the biggest effect, how much did it cost? Was the return worth the investment?
• Premium had no effect, cut back on it. • There was a modest improvement in hand-signed signatures,
was it worth the cost?
• How did the RFM scoring perform?
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Follow-Up If you would like a copy of a simple DOE spreadsheet…
Leave a card or email me [email protected]
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Questions?
49 #bbcon
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50 #bbcon
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