scotland's key challenges - ipsos mori scotland
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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may
not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
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SCOTLAND’S
KEY CHALLENGESMark Diffley, Director
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Poverty
Economy
Health
Housing Education
Environment
Crime & Justice
Politics
KEY CHALLENGES
Immigration/
refugee crisis
3
36%
34%
32%
28%
20%
19%
16%
12%
12%
12%
NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare
Immigration/immigrants
Economy
Poverty/Inequality
Unemployment
Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism
Education/Schools
Low pay/fair wages
Ageing society/Social care
Devolution/Scottish Parliament
ISSUES FACING SCOTLAND
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ISSUES INDEX (2015); BASE: 1,256
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ECONOMY
5
52%
HOW ARE YOU AND YOUR HOUSEHOLD
MANAGING FINANCIALLY THESE DAYS?
44%1999 2014
Quite well / very well
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (1999, 2014)
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35%
38%
24%
2%
Stay the same
FINANCIAL SITUATION
OF HOUSEHOLDS
IN NEXT 10 YEARS
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: 1,000
ImproveGet worse
Don’t know
7
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR; BASE: C1,000 EACH MONTH
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan
1997
Jun
1997
No
v 1
997
Ap
r 1998
Sep
1998
Feb
1999
Jul 1999
Dec
1999
May 2
000
Oct
2000
Mar
2001
Au
g 2
001
Jan
2002
Jun
2002
No
v 2
002
Ap
r 2003
Sep
2003
Feb
2004
Jul 2004
Dec
2004
May 2
005
Oct
2005
Mar
2006
Au
g 2
006
Jan
2007
Jun
2007
No
v 2
007
Ap
r 2008
Sep
2008
Feb
2009
Jul 2009
Dec
2009
May 2
010
Oct
2010
Mar
2011
Au
g 2
011
Jan
2012
Jun
2012
No
v 2
012
Ap
r 2013
Sep
2013
Feb
2014
Jul 2014
Dec
2014
May 2
015
Oct
2015
Mar
2016
Au
g 2
016
NO COLLAPSE IN UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE POST BREXIT
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BUT MORE CONCERN IN SCOTLAND
21%
23%52%
5%
Positive
Negative
Don’t know
Make no
difference
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000
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POVERTY &
INEQUALITY
10
800,000
POVERTY DOWN?
1,000,0001995 2015
Approximate number of individuals living in households with
below 60% of median income
SOURCE: OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS (2015)
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BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THOSE STRUGGLING
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014)
BASE: ALL WHO WERE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO MANAGE ON THEIR INCOME (68)
63%
46%
39%
35%
22%
13%
10%
Cost of gas and electricity
Food cost
Cost of Council Tax
Rent cost
Petrol
Reduction in working hours
Threat of redundancy
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Use prepayment meters for
gas and electricity
Use pay as you go mobile phones
Use highinterest credit
providers
EVIDENCE OF A POVERTY PREMIUM
Low income households more likely than average to…
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI IMPACT OF THE POVERTY PREMIUM IN SCOTLAND (2016)
Not switch their energy
supplier
13
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI IMPACT OF THE POVERTY PREMIUM IN SCOTLAND (2016)
BASE: ALL WHO HAD TO CUT BACK BECAUSE OF THE COST OF BILLS OR REPAYMENTS (78))
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PERSISTENT IN-WORK POVERTY
2013 /
2014
47% 50%
1998 /
1999
SOURCE: OFFICE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS (2015)
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MANAGING FINANCIALLY
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014)
BASE: ALL WORKING RESPONDENTS (478)
56%
40%
24%
36%
48%
43%
7%
12%
33%
Paid more than the Living Wage
Paid about the same as the Living Wage
Paid less than the Living Wage
Living comfortably Coping Finding it difficult
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THE EXPERIENCE OF IN-WORK POVERTY
Trading off
expenses - e.g.
‘eating vs
heating’
Anxiety
depression and
relationship
problems
Combined cost
of housing,
food and fuel
unaffordable
Stuck in poor,
quality, low
paid work
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘HARD WORK, HARD TIMES: IN WORK POVERTY IN GLASGOW’ (2014)
Lack of
financial
resilience and
debt
Reliant on
benefits to get
by
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PERCEIVED CAUSES OF POVERTY
13%
35%
23%
21%
8%
19%
21%
40%
% Glasgow % Britain
Unfairness in our
society
Laziness or lack of
will power
Being unlucky
An inevitable part of
modern life
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2013) AND BRITISH SOCIAL ATTITUDES SURVEY (2013)
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Extend Living Wage coverage in sectors where wages are lowest
Ensure people are progressively better off in work
Increased provision of affordable childcare
TACKLING POVERTY
Pressure energy suppliers to reduce payment premiums
Raise awareness of benefit entitlements and financial support services
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HOUSING
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AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN SCOTLAND
1995
£ 164,326
2016
SOURCE: REGISTERS OF SCOTLAND (2016)
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ASPIRATIONS ARE NOT BEING MET
49%
59%
95%
46%
37%
4%
Agree Disagree
Getting on the property ladder is one of the
most important ways of getting on in life
Everyone should have a right to be able to live in a
decent quality home whether or not they own it
These days it is unrealistic to think you can be
on the property ladder by the age of 35
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: 1,028
22
‘GENERATIONAL GULF‘ MEANS IT MAY GET WORSE
69%
90%
“It is harder for me to buy or rent a
home than it was for my parents’”
“It will be harder for children today to
buy or rent a home than it was for me”
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: 1,028
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COST, SIZE AND CONDITION ALL CONCERNS
Too
small
Owner occupied
Private rented
Social rented
9%
21%
19%
Too
expensive
8%
28%
20%
Poor
condition
4%
16%
14%
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: 1,028
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HEALTH
25
HEALTHCARE IS OUR TOP ISSUE
36%
34%
32%
28%
20%
19%
16%
12%
12%
12%
NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare
Immigration/immigrants
Economy
Poverty/Inequality
Unemployment
Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism
Education/Schools
Low pay/fair wages
Ageing society/Social care
Devolution/Scottish Parliament
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ISSUES INDEX (2015); BASE: 1,256
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WE ARE LIVING LONGER
1995 2015
Women
Men 72
78
77
81
SOURCE: NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND (2015)
27
MOST OF USE THINK WE ARE IN GOOD HEALTH
2% 5% 7% 11%18%13%
15%17%
22%
25%
84% 80% 76%68%
57%
5th (Least deprived) 4th 3rd 2nd 1st (Most deprived)
Bad Health Fair Health Good Health
SOURCE: SCOTTISH HEALTH SURVEY (2014)
28
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SALSUS (2013)
28%29%
27% 25%
31%
39%
22%24%
2006 2008 2010 2013
13 year old girls 13 year olds boys 15 year olds girls 15 year old boys
BUT MENTAL HEALTH A GROWING ISSUE
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EDUCATION
30
ATTAINMENT GAP
Numeracy Reading
Least deprived 52%
25%
96%
68%Most deprived
SOURCE: SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT SCOTTISH SURVEY OF LITERACY AND NUMERACY (2015)
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ASPIRATIONS GAP IN EDUCATION
30%
64%
43%
69%
16%
57%
23%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
SIMD1 SIMD5 SIMD1 SIMD5
2008/9 2013/14
% of S4 pupils expecting to go to university % of school leavers going to university
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SALSUS (2008/9) AND (2013/4)
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ENVIRONMENT
33
MOST HOUSEHOLDS RECYCLE
Paper Card Plastic Metal Glass
83% 81% 80% 77% 75%
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014); BASE: 3,530
34
BUT OTHER BEHAVIOURS LESS COMMON
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2016); BASE: 1,023
73%
Recycle
41%
Walk, cycle or use
public transport
instead of drive
34%
Buy local produce
35
VIEWS ON CLIMATE CHANGE SOMEWHAT MIXED
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2014); BASE: 9,800
45%
26%
8%
11%6%
An immediate and
urgent problem
More of a problem for
the future
Not really a
problem
I’m still not convinced it is
happening
Don’t know
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BARRIERS TO CHANGING BEHAVIOUR
You don’t think
about [environmental
issues] unless they
affect you.”
People are more
concerned about
finances and the
economy…trying to
keep a roof over their
heads, keep a job.”
Before, things that
you would buy would
be organically farmed.
now that's less of a
concern. The concern is
paying for it.”
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘THE KEY ISSUES FOR SCOTLAND’S ENVIRONMENT’ (2013)
Not an immediate
problem
Financial security
takes priority Too expensive
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EXPECTATIONS OF GOVERNMENT
Lead by example
Encourage and
enable behaviour
change
Take tougher
stance with businesses
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ‘THE KEY ISSUES FOR SCOTLAND’S ENVIRONMENT’ (2013)
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CRIME AND JUSTICE
39
CRIME NOT A TOP ISSUE
36%
34%
32%
28%
20%
19%
16%
12%
12%
12%
NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare
Immigration/immigrants
Economy
Poverty/Inequality
Unemployment
Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism
Education/Schools
Low pay/fair wages
Ageing society/Social care
Devolution/Scottish Parliament
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI ISSUES INDEX (2015); BASE: 1,256
40
RECORDED
SOURCE: SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT (2014)
CRIME VS
SURVEY DATA
41
RISE OF CYBERCRIME
SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2015); BASE: ALL INTERNET USERS (888)
29%
Directed to fake
websites asking
for personal
details
22%
Virus or other
computer
infection
11%
Exposed to
illegal/
upsetting
images
9%
Unauthorised
access to/use of
personal data
42
HATE CRIME AND HARASSMENT
SOURCE: SCOTTISH CRIME AND JUSTICE SURVEY (2014/15); IPSOS MORI GLASGOW HOUSEHOLD SURVEY (2015)
10%
15%
15%
26%
19%
22%
33%
3%
7%
10%
10%
14%
21%
34%
Sexual orientation
Religion
Disability
Sectarianism
Age
Gender
Ethnic origin
Scotland (2014/15) Glasgow (2015)
BASE: ALL THOSE WHO HAD BEEN INSULTED, PESTERED OR INTIMIDATED ON THE
GROUNDS OF A PROTECTED CHARACTERISTIC (136 SCOTLAND, 124 GLASGOW)
9%
12%
Scotland
GlasgowBASE: 5,750 SCOTLAND; 1,021 GLASGOW
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POLITICAL
ATTITUDES
44
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON
SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS
28%
13%5%9%
45%
Strongly
agree
Tend
to agree
Strongly
disagree
Neither/
don’t know
Tend to
disagree
Sept 2016
35%
13%8%9%
36%
Strongly
agree
Tend
to agree
Strongly
disagree
Tend to
disagree
June 2016
Neither/
don’t know
45
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)
48%52% YesNo
BASE: ALL GIVING VOTING INTENTION AND CERTAIN TO VOTE (831))
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Su
pp
ort
fo
r in
dep
en
den
ce (
%)
Introduction of
the poll tax in
Scotland
Devolution
referendum
Scottish
Parliament opens
Devolution
referendum
SNP form
minority
government
SNP form majority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
Independence
Referendum
SNP minority government
with Conservative opposition
EU Referendum
SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE – LONG-TERM TREND
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLLING; 1999-07 DATA TAKEN FROM SCOTTISH SOCIAL ATTITUDES SURVEY
47
BREXIT
48
DID BREXIT CHANGE YOUR MIND ON INDEPENDENCE?
SOURCE: SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000
15%
79%
6%Yes
No
Don’t know
49
BREXIT: UK WIDE 9 IN 10 WOULD VOTE THE SAME WAY
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI POLL (2016); BASE: 1,077
92%
4%3%
Vote the
same way
Change
my vote
Don’t know
50
SCOTS DON’T IDENTIFY WITH THE EU
• People in mainland Europe seen
as more European than Scots
• EU ‘remote’, with no clear,
obvious impact on people’s day
to day lives
• The UK lacks influence within
Europe
• Limited knowledge about the
EU, what it does, how it
operates, its institutions and key
figures
• Little understanding of what UK
membership entails and what
the UK gets in return for its
investment
• Almost no one can name their
MEP
We have no strong
European identity
We have little
knowledge about the EU
We had huge influence
in the beginning…our
influence is dripping
away, and that's all I
see in the future…until
we're one of the
smaller voices in
Europe.“
“All our European
members of
parliament… are
politically aligned
against each other
and frankly, I don't
know what they are
or who they are.”
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI EU REFERENDUM FOCUS GROUPS (2016)
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IMMIGRATION
AND THE
REFUGEE
CRISIS
52
RESPONSE TO REFUGEE CRISIS
36%
38%
60%
9%
8%
11%
51%
51%
26%
3%
2%
3%
The EU has respondend well
The UK has responded well
Scotland has responded well
Agree Neither Disagreee Don’t know
SOURCE: IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016); BASE: 1,000
53
SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL ADVISOR AND SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)
23
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
43
44
57
France
Turkey
Belgium
Sweden
Italy
Poland
Germany
Great Britain
Spain
Hungary
Scotland
% “agree”“I’M CONFIDENT THAT
MOST REFUGEES WHO
COME TO THE UK WILL
SUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE
INTO THEIR NEW SOCIETY”
54
SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL ADVISOR AND SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)
24
27
31
38
40
44
44
45
48
55
64
Spain
Scotland
Great Britain
Belgium
Poland
Sweden
Germany
France
Italy
Hungary
Turkey
% “agree”“WE MUST CLOSE OUR
BORDERS TO REFUGEES
ENTIRELY - WE CAN’T
ACCEPT ANY AT
THIS TIME”
55
SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL ADVISOR AND SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)
30
32
47
51
52
54
55
61
61
62
62
Spain
Sweden
Scotland
Great Britain
Germany
France
Belgium
Turkey
Italy
Poland
Hungary
% “agree”“MOST FOREIGNERS WHO
WANT TO GET TO MY
COUNTRY AS A REFUGEE
REALLY AREN’T REFUGEES.
THEY JUST WANT TO
COME HERE FOR
ECONOMIC REASONS,
OR TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF OUR WELFARE
SERVICES”
56
SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL ADVISOR AND SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR (2016)
16
53
57
58
63
63
67
70
71
72
83
Spain
Belgium
Sweden
Scotland
Poland
Great Britain
France
Italy
Germany
Hungary
Turkey
% “agree”“THERE ARE TERRORISTS
PRETENDING TO BE
REFUGEES WHO WILL
ENTER MY COUNTRY
TO CAUSE VIOLENCE
AND DESTRUCTION”
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may
not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
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