scottish independence open democracy - independence referendum survey january 2014, phase 1 results
DESCRIPTION
TNS was commissioned by Scottish Independence Open Democracy to conduct research among adults in Scotland into the issues facing voters in the run up to the referendum on 18th September 2014. The first results from this poll were published on 2nd February. For more information visit www.tnsglobal.com/uk/scotlandTRANSCRIPT
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694
Scottish Independence Open Democracy
Independence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014
Phase 1 results
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 2
Likelihood of votingTwo thirds claim they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, suggesting higher than usual engagement
Q12 How likely do you think you are to vote in the referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014? Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
Certain to vote
Very likely to vote
Quite likely to vote
Not very likely to vote
Certain not to vote
65
13
11
7
4
%
73% of Yes voters and 76% of No voters claim they are certain to vote.
Among undecideds, 42% claim they are certain to vote, highlighting the influential role this group is likely to
play in the debate.
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 3
Yes
No
Don't know
29
42
29
Yes
No
Don't know
32
49
19
Voting IntentionsCurrently, three in ten (29%) adults in Scotland intend to vote Yes, 42% No and 29% are undecided; those who claim to be certain to vote are more likely to have an opinion, but one fifth of this group is undecided
S1 There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054) / All who are certain to vote (779)
All adults 16+ All certain to vote
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 4
Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers
Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs
Full independence for Scotland
Don’t know
31
35
24
10
Devo MaxDespite not featuring on the referendum ballot, the option of ‘Devo Max’ would be supported by one third (35%), and is most popular among those who are currently undecided
S1A Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the mostBase: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
All adults 16+
Yes Voters (287)
No voters (493)
Undecided (274)
0
58
22
18
40
44
78
0
6
5
2
27
Don’t know
Full independence for Scot-land
Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs
Keep the current arrange-ment of a Scottish Parlia-ment with its existing powers
%
%
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 5
Knowledge about the issuesOver half (56%) indicated that they do not have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote, rising to 81% among undecideds
Definitely have enough knowledge
Probably have enough knowledge
Probably do not have enough knowledge
Definitely do not have enough knowledge
Don't know
13
30
35
21
2
%
Enough knowledge =
43%
Q6 To what extent do you feel that you have enough knowledge about the issues related to Scottish independence to decide how to vote in the referendum?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
Not enough knowledge =
56%
56% of Yes voters and 53% of No voters claim they have enough
knowledge compared to just 15% of undecideds.
Among this latter group, 81% feel they do not have enough
knowledge.
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 6
Yes, read all of it
Yes, read some of it
Aware of the white paper, but not read
any of it
Not aware of the white paper
1
13
57
29
%
Awareness and reading of White PaperWhilst seven in ten claim to have heard of the White Paper, only 14% indicated they had read any of it.
Read any of the White Paper =
14%Aware of the White Paper
= 71%
Q7: The Scottish Government white paper on Scotland’s independence (called “Scotland’s Future”) was launched on 26th November. Had you heard of the white paper before today, and if so have you read any of it?Base: All Adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
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Cameron vs. SalmondTwo thirds (67%) agreed that there should be a debate on the key issues between David Cameron and Alex Salmond, with 17% disagreeing
There should be a debate on the key issues between David
Cameron (Prime Minister of the UK) and Alex Salmond (First Minister of Scotland)
48 18 12 5 12 5
Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know
Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
Three quarters (75%) of Yes voters agree there should be a debate, as do 60% of No voters
and 68% of Undecideds
%
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 8
Effectiveness of campaignsNeither campaign appears to have performed well so far, with 32% agreeing that Better Together has outlined the benefits of the UK and 34% agreeing that Yes Scotland has outlined the benefits of Independence
The Better Together (No) campaign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland stay-
ing in the UK
The Yes Scotland (Yes) cam-paign has clearly outlined the benefits of Scotland becoming
independent
11
13
21
21
25
21
16
16
17
21
10
8
Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know
Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
Yes voters appear to be more satisfied with their campaign – 58% of Yes voters agree that Yes
Scotland has outlined the benefits of independence, whilst 48% of No voters agree that Better Together
has outlined the benefits of the UK
%
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694 9
Visibility of campaignsThere is agreement that both campaigns need to be seen and heard more in the debate, though there is greater demand for Better Together to increase their presence
The Better Together (No) campaign needs to be seen
and heard more in the debate
The Yes Scotland (Yes) campaign needs to be seen and heard more in the de-
bate
35
31
29
24
18
19
6
10
4
9
8
6
Agree Strongly Agree Slightly Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree slightly Disagree Strongly Don't know
Q10 How much do you agree or disagree that….?Base: All adults 16+ in Scotland (1054)
73% of Yes voters agree that Yes Scotland needs greater visibility,
compared to 81% of No voters who feel the same about Better Together
%
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Methodology
A representative sample of 1054 adults aged 16+ across Scotland was interviewed for the research between 14th and 20th January 2014.
All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing).
Interviewing was conducted in sampling points across 67 constituencies selected to represent Scotland geographically and demographically.
A quota sampling method was used for respondent selection.
To ensure the sample was representative of adults 16+ in Scotland, a weighting matrix was applied to the data according to gender, age, and social grade to match population estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from
the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.
TNSIndependence Referendum Survey© TNS January 2014 122694
Scottish Independence Open Democracy
Independence Referendum SurveyJanuary 2014
Phase 1 results