sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the arctic
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Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic . H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller * Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref, Nov 2013
Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic
H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller*
Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USAe-mail: [email protected]*Now at: USAID, Washington, D.C.
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• Website with more information: seaice.alaska.edu/gi• Key publication: see press brief materials at EGU web site
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Sea-ice system services & ice use
• Broad definition of ice hazards based on disruption of ice services & threats to system integrity
• Slow onset– Climate regulation– Coastal protection– Geologic agent– Subsistence activities
• Rapid onset– Marine & coastal hazard– Transportation corridor– Platform
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C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref
Masterson
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• Summer ice less extensive
• Seas north of Alaska & Eastern Siberia have seen greatest change anywhere in Arctic
Large reductions in summer ice concentration (1979-2013)
NSIDC.org
September
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Coastal Protection• Sea ice protects coasts
from waves & thermal subrosion of permafrost
• Alaska open water season extended by >1 wk/decade
• Increasing vulnerability of coast to fall storms
Coastal Erosion• Sea ice highly
effective sediment transport agent
• Ice export may balance input from erosion (?)
• More mobile ice & larger fetch increase entrainment & export
USGS Eicken et al., GRL, 2000
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Risk: Exposure• Coastal &
offshore infrastructure
• Shipping routes• Fisheries• Local &
indigenous use: subsistence & transport
• Potential overlap of uses & hazardsseaice.alaska.edu/gi 5
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Hazards & threats: Relevant sea-ice variables
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Photo: Craig George
Jacob Adams Crew Trail, 2008
Assessing the state of landfast ice
2008 Barrow Ice Trails
Druckenmiller et al., 2010
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Key points• Evaluations of hazards
in an ice use context to capture impacts of sea-ice change on human activities and loss of services provided by ice cover
• Rapid change requires improved tracking & prediction of hazards
• Key ice parameters Hazards Index
• Preliminary hazards survey: Hazards & maritime activities in close proximity in many areas
• Observing programs for hazards assessments require sufficient spatial resolution & sampling of extreme features
seaice.alaska.edu/gi 8