sea level rise
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given during the kick-off of the TU Delft Climate Institute on March 1st 2012. Sea level rise is one of the reserach topics of the new institute. Dr Bert Vermeersen explained why.TRANSCRIPT
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Sea Level RiseBert Vermeersen, TU Delft (from July 1 2012 also at NIOZ – Texel)
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Sea Level Change Traditionally Observed by Tide Gauges(Relative sea level change w.r.t. land)
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(sea level change w.r.t. Center of Mass of the Earth;NOT w.r.t. land)
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Sea Level Change Observed by Satellite Altimetry …(C
ou
rtesy:
Ste
ve N
ere
m)
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… as Derived from Spatially Highly Variable Ups and Downs …
(Courtesy: Steve Nerem)
3.2
± 0.4
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Sea Level Change by Continental Ice ChangesRelative sea level variations due to continental ice mass changes have never been uniform, are not uniform today, and will never be uniform due to accompanying
1. gravity changes
2. solid-earth deformation, and
3. induced changes in Earth rotation (polar wander)
Sea Level Rise: Two Principle Causes1. Thermal Expansion (heating of the oceans)
2. Continental Ice Changes (present and past)
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Relative Sea Level Change Fingerprinting
Ice sheet formation: near fieldinstantaneous effect
Ice sheet melt: far fieldlong-term viscous effect
True Polar Wander Geodynamic mechanisms
leave their characteristic regional records, from which the cause(s) of relative sea level change might be determined
2,200 km
6,700 km
Gravity
Deformation
Rotation
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ESA’s GOCE Gravity Satellite Mission (launched March 17 2009)
“ half a TU Delft satellite “
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Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, J. L. Bamber, R. E. M. Riva, L. L. A. Vermeersen, A. M. LeBrocq, Science, 324, 901-903, 2009.
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NASA / DLR’s GRACE Gravity Satellite Mission (launched March 17 2002)
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Partitioning recent Greenland mass loss, M. van den Broeke, J. Bamber, J. Ettema, E. Rignot, E. Schrama, W. v.d. Berg, E. van Meijgaard, I. Velicogna, B. Wouters, Science, 326, 841-986, 2009.
Surface Mass Balance (SMB) Model vs. GRACE
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Postglacial Rebound: Viscoelastic Deformation
ice load
bulgebulge
viscous flow
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Ice Load at Last Glacial Maximum
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RSL Change since Last Glacial Maximum 18,000 years ago
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Sea Level Change Since Last Glacial Maximum Present-Day RSL Change Due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
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A vexing problem: how to disentangle postglacial rebound from present-day mass changes over Antarctica ???
GRACE: observes mass changes ICESat & CryoSat: ice height changes
Satellite Gravity Satellite Altimetry
Combining gravity change with altimetry change observations might do the trick …
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GRACE (gravity) data and ICESat (altimetry) data
CSR RL04, SLR C20, destriped 300 km Gaussian smoothing R.E.M. Riva, B.C. Gunter, T.J. Urban, L.L.A. Vermeersen, R.C. Lindenbergh, M.M. Helsen, J.L. Bamber, B.E. Schutz, R.S.W. van de Wal, M.R. van
den Broeke, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment over Antarctica from combined GRACE and ICESat satellite data, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 288, 516-523, 2009.
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Outlook
• Sea Level Change is Complicated: For many coastal regions in the world, deviations from the average global mean of 3 mm/yr relative sea level rise are observed to be large, in the range between -15 mm/yr relative sea level fall and +15 mm/yr relative sea level rise.
• Global Processes, Regional Impact: Gravity Changes, Solid Earth Deformation and Earth Rotation all influence relative sea level change projections and must be taken into account, also for relative sea level changes due to present-day ice melt! Vice Versa, observing “fingerprint patterns” over the oceans might tell us more about their causes.
• Satellite Observations are Essential: For reliable predictions on future regional sea level change a combination of data sets (satellite altimetry and gravity, tide gauges, GPS, …) with geophysical models (ocean dynamics, ice dynamics, postglacial rebound, …) is required.
• Collaboration: Not an Option, but Necessity: fruitful collaborations already exist between TU Delft, KNMI, IMAU and other national (and international) partners on sea level and ice research. The Delft Climate Institute will further strengthen and expand these collaborations.