SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO GREEN HOUSE EFFECT:

IMPLICATIONS TO KERALA

THRIVIKRAMJI, K. P. & ANIRUDHAN, S.

Dept. of Geology, Univ. of Kerala

Kariavattom 695 581.

FINAL REPORT SUBMITTED TO DEPT. OF ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTS, GOVT. OF

INDIA, NEW DELHI

(Grant No. 21-3-89-RE)

June, 1992.

PREFACE

The sea level rise is due to green house effect or green house warming is considered as

one the foremost environmental threats facing mankind in the 21st century. Although, opinion

differs on the very question of green house warming and its cardinal consequence viz., sea level

rise, the scientific community is pretty much unanimous about the long term consequences of

deforestation and pollution or population explosion.

There exists a large degree of disagreement regarding the quanta of sea level rise.

Different rates as well as extents are therefore used in scenario building tasks to analyze the

extent of less consequent on erosion of beach material, inundation and destruction of installations

and investments by the citizens, private industry and Government agencies on the coastal low

lands of the littoral nations. Further, modification of wetlands and salination of coastal aquifers are

potential dangers of sea level rise.

Despite the uncertainties clouding the question of SLR due to GHE, majority opinion is in

favour of preparing ourselves to the potential dangers, risks and losses thereof of a disaster like

sea level rise. Having a knowledge of some sort or a forecast of the near distant of midterm future

is the hall mark of any intelligent, modern society run on scientific methods because such prior

knowledge is helpful in reducing the degree and magnitude of risks from various natural or man

made causes.

Therefore, the Dept. of Environment and Forests ordered a first approximation study of

the implications of SLR due to GHE to the various littoral states of the Union of the India with

Prof. V. Asthana, Jawahar Lal Nehru University as the national coordinator.

The study that we initiated in Kerala with financial support of the Dept. of Environment,

embodies mostly a survey research and the results were presented in three six monthly reports

submitted to the DOE&F. This last and final report deals among other things with the economic

loss, assuming that direct damage will be faced only by the land adjacent to permeable shoreline,

and while reckoning the shoreline length, the 93km of cliffed shoreline was dropped from the

total.

We have also added a section by way of recommendations on the measure to be

adopted to lessen the burden imposed on the economy by the SLR. For example, we strongly

recommend the suspension of indiscriminate construction of sea walls (with the exception of the

sites of gun batteries of the Cochin Naval Base or the groins of the fishing harbors and the like).

This corrective measure toward off cyclical erosion of the beaches is no longer cost

effective as not only the beaches rebuild after the erosional phase long the same sites, but thecus

of erosion also shifts from time to time leaving the very expensive sea walls high and dry or

drowned by the waves.

We also recommend that in future, the funds earmarked for seawall construction should

be used for construction of specially designed multi-storey multi-family houses (apartments) for

the settlers along the back beach, who routinely are exposed to the erosional threat and

consequent material and property loss. The state exchanger then will have to release free ration

and other welfare measures to these displaced people. For example, the investment of about Rs.

0.75 million for a kilometer of seawall people who are offered protection by the stone monster, i.e.

the sea wall.

We also admit that even with our efforts over a period of 30 months, we have not been

able to cover the entire terms of reference proposed by Dept. of Environment and Forests,

Govt. of India when the projects were approved by the latter. However, we feel confident in that

most of the important issues in respect of sea level rise are adequately answered at a first

approximation level.

For example, though water samples were collected over a long period of 12 months, we

could not pay sufficient attention to use the data in predicting the extent of salination due to seal

level rise. Throughout the study we were handicapped by the non-availability of readily available

data, or the ambivalence of the agencies of the Departments of the state government to the

question of SLR.

We are very sure of achieving better results covering wider and larger aspects of SLR, if

a new research program for refinement of the results of this study is approved for implementation.

We have taken great pains to make sure that the numbers and estimates used in this

report are realistic, true and valid. There might be disagreement on the estimates of current

prices we have used for the various types of resources.

Finally, we wish to state that we are solely responsible for the lapses in this report.

University of Kerala Thrivikramji, K. P.

Kariavattom, 695 581 Anirudhan, S.

June, 1992.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We thank the Dept. of Environment, Govt. of India, New Delhi, for choosing us to

undertake this important and futuristic study pertaining to the state of Kerala. Dr. J. R. Bhatt, SD,

Dept. of Environment and Forests, Govt. of India and Prof. V. Asthana, National Coordinator of

sea level rise research projects steadily persuaded us to further our efforts in answering several

questions posed by the phenomenon of Sea level rise due to Green House Effect. Prof. Perr

Brunn, the renowned coastal engineer (USA) had whole heatedly helped and encouraged us in

many respects during the course of this study.

The administration of the University of Kerala offered timely resisitance for

implementation of the project by releasing grant-in-aid received from time to time. Further, the

University maintained its stance of supporting the sponsored research programs implemented by

the faculty.

As usual, our colleagues in the Dept. of Geology were constructively disposed in respect

of the project, viz., Mr. Sabu Joseph, Dr. K. Bhimsen, Mr. K. Gangadhar, Mr. Sunny Joseph, Mr.

S. Suresh, Mr. R, Pradeep Kumar (all JPF s from time to time) and Ms. Reena Ravindran and Mr.

T. K. Nidhinkuttan, Tech. Asst., whole heatedly and sincerely discharged their responsibilities to

the project. Ms. Beena. G. S., a research assistant in DOD/ASIS project moonlighted at times. Dr.

G. Prema supervised the work related to analysis of water samples.

We also take this opportunity to place on record our thanks to the Chairman, CGWB,

New Delhi for agreeing to release data pertaining to the wells drilled by CGWB in the coastal tract

of Kerala. The Director and staff of the local office of the Central Ground Water Board,

Trivandrum promptly provided the information.

The data pertaining to the blocks and Panchayats were made available to us by the

intervention of Collectors of the various (littoral) Districts of Kerala. Further, the Commissioners of

various corporations and municipalities provided us with useful information in respect of their

jurisdiction.

The Commissioner, Kerala State Land Use Board offered considerable support for the

project by permitting our staff to use their archival data. The Divisional Engineers of Trivandrum

and Olavakot Div. of the Southern Railway permitted us to gather data on the rail elevations in the

coastal land of Kerala.

The Director, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Kerala gladly supplied us with

published information on block level statistics. The Data on sea walls were offered to us by the

Coastal Erosion Studies wing of the Irrigation Dept., Govt. of Kerala.

We also take this opportunity to record the disbelief and consequent inability of the

Kerala State Electricity Board when we approached them for data on the installations along the

Low Coastal land of Kerala. We consider this perception of the KSEB as quite normal and as truly

representing a sample among the disbelievers of the phenomenon of Sea Level Rise due to

Green House Effect.

University of Kerala Thrivikramji, K. P.

Kariavattom, 695 581 Anirudhan, S.

June, 1992.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I: KERALA COASTAL LAND

SECTION II: HISTORIC SHORE LINE CHANGES

SECTION III: CURRENT PRICE OF KERALA

SECTION IV: ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SLR

SECTION V: POTENTIAL LOSS TO KERALA

SECTION VI: PREPARING FOR SLR

APPENDIX I: NOTE SUBMITTED TO THE VOHRA COMMITTEE

APPENDIX II: DISTRIBUTION LIST

LIST OF FIGURES

1.1 SCHEMATIC OF SHORELINE TYPES, KERALA

3.1 PHYSIOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS, KERALA: EXTENT

3.2 RUPEE VALUE : KERALA

5.1 ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO SLR

5.1A BLOCKS AND MUNICIPALITIES WITH SHORELINE

6.1 SCHEME FOR NEW TENEMENTS

LIST OF TABLES

1.1 CAUSES OF COASTAL EROSION

1.2 EXTENT OF SIZE OF IMPERMEABLE SHORELINE ALONG KERALA COASTAL LAND

2.1 ESTIMATE OF FISCAL LOSS/GAIN ETC. BASED ON HISTORIC SHORELINE

FLUCTUATION

2.2 ANNUAL LOSS OF COCONUTS DUE TO LOSS OF LAND

3.1 PARAMETERS USED IN ESTIMATING WORTH OF A PROVINCE

3.2 VALUE OF KERALA AT CURRENT PRICES

4.1 ITEMS INVENTORIED FROM AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS

4.2 A, B, C, D & E CATEGORIES OF INVESTMENTS IN WACT: HIGH SCENARIO

4.3 INVENTORY OF NATURAL & MAN MADE OBJECTS IN SELECTED

TRANSECTS

5.1 LIST BORE WELLS IN WACT

5.2 INTRA-COASTAL WATER WAYS, WACT

5.3 TOURIST DESTINATIONS, WACT

5.3A LIST OF BLOCKS WITH A SEA SHORELINE

5.4 SCHEDULE OF RATES USED IN LOSS ESTIMATES

5.5 A, B, C, D & E ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS, KERALA COAST: AERIAL

PHOTOGRAPHIC BASE (KUNJATHUR MATTANCHERY)

5.6 ESTIMATED LOSS BASED ON INVENTORIES OF VARIOUS SAMPLE

TRANSECTS

5.7 A & B ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS KERALA COAST (TOTAL): AERIAL

PHOTOGRAPHIC BASE

5.8 ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS KERALA COAST (TOTAL): TRANSECT BASE

5.9 ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO SLR

SECTION I

KERALA COASTAL LAND

Introduction

The Kerala coastal zone is about 560 Km2 if a coastal land zone of 10 km. width is

envisaged. By definition the coastal land zone (CLZ) encompasses an area which is under the

influence of the processes, responses and products of the shore zone. In fact the assumption of a

width of 10 km. for the coastal land zone is not arbitrary, considering the very wide variation in

width of the coastal land zone of Kerala. A similar width is assumed for the coastal land zone of

Kanyakumari Dist. Tamil Nadu, which attains then an area of 500 Km2.

Lithological make-up

The lithological make of the coastal land zone between Kanyakumari (TN State) and

Thalapadi (Kerala) are relatively variable, reflecting the variability of geological and structural

make up of the rocks forming the coastal land. The lithotypes exposed along the coastal tract are

variable in their resistance to the erosional forces of the steep monsoonal waves that release

stupendous quantities of energy along the shoreline.

The Precambrian crystalline rocks, the residual laterite derived from the former under

tropical weathering conditions, the laterite capped Tertiary sedimentary sequence and the ancient

and contributed to a condition of differential erosion of the shores during the monsoons. The main

causes of coastal erosion listed in the Shore Protection Manual are given in Table 1.1. Naturally,

as has been proposed earlier (Thrivikramji et. al., 1983), the crystalline rocks, laterite and

sedimentary rocks exposures capped by laterite and sedimentary rocks exposures capped by

laterite are far more resistant to erosion than the modern and ancient beach sediments.

Shoreline Types

Thrivikramai (1981) classified the shoreline and the adjacent coastal land based on the

erosivity into two categories, viz., the permeable shoreline which is highly vulnerable to the

monsoonal wave climate and the impermeable shoreline (relatively highly resistant to such

waves). Table 1.2 gives an estimate of the extent of the impermeable shoreline (in Km). The

cumulative length of impermeable shoreline works out to approximately 93 km. This estimate has

been made out of LANDSAT imageries (1: 250,000) and topographic sheets (1: 50,000) followed

by field checks.

The permeable shoreline contribute only 467 km. with in the state of Kerala. This sector

is highly vulnerable to erosion by waves during the monsoons and in fact studies have indicated

that in Kerala maximum oscillation of shoreline has taken place along this sector.

Typical schematic cross sections on the coastal land are given in Fig.1. According to this

scheme based on lithological make up and structure, there are at least 4 different categories,

which fall under the permeable and impermeable shorelines. The figures also suggest that

fluctuations in sea level can result in the characteristic morphotypes represented in Fig. 1.1. C

and D.

Summary

The Kerala coastal land covering an area of about 5600km2 and that of Kanyakumari

Dist. (~ area = 500 km2) have much in common as far as the geology and geomorphology are

concerned. There exists a bilateral symmetry from a vantage point off Cochin. In other words if

one made a trip northward and southward of Cochin, the geomorphic features and geological

formations that one may come across will be similar, in that after treading through the modern

and ancient beach/dune ridge complexes and the inlets, one would step over the residual laterite

of the Tertiary basin fill and will be further followed by residual laterite or gruss.

The sediments and rocks forming the Kerala coastal land are classified into permeable

and impermeable groups and hence Kerala shore line is typified by the permeable shoreline and

impermeable shore line (93 Km).

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SECTION II

HISTORICAL SHORELINE CHANGES

Historical changes of shoreline, like its extent and sense of movement (positive or sea

ward; static or neutral and negative or landward) can be reckoned with considerable reliability

from the study of maps, air photos and satellite imageries generated more or less periodically.

There exists considerable tedium in gaining access to such records, due to reasons ranging from

simple non-existence of these in the researcher s laboratories, to confidentiality classification and

hence access problems and delays and shear non-availability of maps of ones choice. However,

with great deal of perseverance and relentless pursuance, the said problems were largely over

come (Thrivikramaji, et. al., 1983).

The analysis of data pertaining to maps published after the first survey of the country

(early 1900 s) and the metric maps published in the late sixties, has suggested very interesting

trends as far as the behaviour of the shoreline is concerned. Some of the generalizations that

were arrived at are listed below.

1. The shoreline of the impermeable type is more stable and is less vulnerable to the

monsoonal erosion by very steep waves, and hence during a time span of approximately

50yr. It did not show any catastrophic backwearing. The impermeable shoreline is

invariably a cliffed shoreline, with or without a landfast beach, at least during the

monsoon season.

2. The permeable shore line on the other hand, demonstrated large oscillations resulting in

either accretion of beach sand and gain of new land area or erosion of beaches leading

to loss of land and consequent loss of structures, facilities and services (at least by

implication).

3. It was possible to estimate the cumulative loss of land (22 Km2) and cumulative gain of

land (41 Km2), along the Kerala Coastal land. In other words the net loss was 2200

hectares and the net gain was like 4100 hectares.

4. A mundane estimate of monetary loss or gain (Table 2.1) following the estimate of shore

line configuration changes is shelf explanatory and this may only be the tip of the ice berg

of losses that might ensue in the event of predictions due to SLR come true. Land loss

would result in a loss of Rs.1300 million and the gain would provide a benefit of Rs.2500

million.

5. Another attempt is made to estimate the lost coconuts due to loss of planted land area or

due to the inability to plant and crop in the land area that had disappeared (Table 2.2). A

sample calculation suggests that approximately Rs.130 million worth of coconuts are

annually not produced in the state due to loss of land of about 2200 hectares.

6. In so far as the erosion/accretion phenomena along the beaches of Kerala are

concerned, one should also take into account the unique beach-formation-promotion

phenomenon called Mud Banks, which functions more or less like an offshore break

water in one or more points between Puthiyappa near Calicut in the north and

Thirkunnapuzha north of Quilon in the south. Only the beach on the lee side of the mud

bank is prone to erosion by waves.

7. In fact, this experience of loss as well as gain of land in the recent past should be taken

as cue to what is in store for us in the future. Added to that if we are bound to face the

consequences of SLR due to GHE, our troubles could be much more. In the following

pages of the report, the economic implications of the phenomenon of sea level rise are

presented based on the current prices.

----------

SECTION III

THE CURRENT PRICE OF KERALA

Introduction

In any study of the nature of the economic implications due to sea level rise, it will be

generally very difficult for the lay-public and non-specialist to appreciate the quantum or

magnitude of loss as they are seemingly very large. Hence, as ordinary beings we are not

able to perceive the real size and magnitude of the phenomenon through numbers.

Appreciation of such large numbers is easier if these are stated in comparison with familiar

numbers and facts.

It ought to be kept in mind that like we work out the cost of any commodity or service, it is

also possible to assess the cost of any nation or province or say the state of Kerala. In fact,

once a reliable estimate of the worth of the state is available, then any other cost estimate on

any other aspect can be compared with it and the implications of the magnitude can then be

easily understood.

What to Access?

Truly, to assess the real value of Kerala, we have to sum the actual weighted values of

land, goods, services and materials generated in the state from natural (primary) and man

made (secondary) sources. In fact, this figure is some what comparable to the state domestic

product, SDP, but not quite so in that the latter does not include the cost of land with in the

boundaries of the state.

Current Price of the State

The actual cost of land depends on the potential development capability which in turn is

controlled by geomorphology. For example a parcel of land on the mountains would have one

type of landuse potential and price than a piece of equivalent size in the coastal tract.

Further, the risks in either case are totally dictated by natural and manmade determinants.

The commonest of primary determinants are location, natural environmental setting,

physiographic controls, geologic history etc. these jointly determine the potential of the land

for further development of agri-, mining-, and manufacturing- industries. On the other hand,

the secondary or man made or anthropogenic factors are the potential for alternate

developments, development costs, insurance costs, tourist potential, and linkages with

communication and transportation net works etc. However, both sets of determinants jointly

decide the worth of cost of the parcel of land in question. Actually, a thorough knowledge of

these determinants, their distribution in respect of a parcel of land etc. are required for

assessing the worth in current prices.

In fact a modern data base of these parameters are essential to proceed in this line.

Unfortunately, such data bases are totally absent for almost all regions of the state. However,

data on some of the determinants are available with the specialized agencies of the state.

The census data also incorporates some other determinants. Unfortunately, the census data

now available in the form of published reports do contain only number frequency or

percentage type information. Sorting or recording of data in the spatial or map domain is not

yet practiced under census operations.

Therefore, in respect of assessing the worth of the state of Kerala, the modalities

described above have not been observed. An alternate method has been employed in

estimating the cost. For example, all the resource types indicated in Table 3.1, irrespective of

their origin like manmade or natural should fall under three main types viz., those occurring

on or above ground surface, those below the ground surface up to a certain depth and the

surface of ground itself. Instead of estimating the worth of the state by summing these three

categories, we used the simple strategy of estimating the worth based on the current prices

of the total area of the ground surface.

The only weightage in terms of cost of unit land that was applied for, is for location i.e.,

urban, rural and agricultural and for classification under a specific physiographic division. Due

to paucity of reliable and freely available data and due to paucity of funds we attempted to

project only the cost of land. Nothing that occurs below the surface of the land or above it has

been given weightage for, in the exercise.

In fact, if the SDP data of the state can be added to the land value, the resultant figure

should provide a reasonably relable estimate of the current value of the state of Kerala. By

implication, the SDP figures call for precise data on the various categories of resources that

occur above and below the ground. But at this point one often stumbles on the unreliability

and / or antiquity of the archival data if it extend. In general, most of the time due to paucity of

funds, it is often difficult for the researcher to engage suitable people to capture primary,

good quality data on the scale of a state.

Any student of economics will soon realize that this list (Table 3.1) sans certain items

(especially those listed under A) would amount to an estimate of the State Domestic Product

(SDP). In fact, this list can be expanded further. It is also true that list of items in Table 3.1,

covers most of the cardinal resource items that adds value to the state of Kerala.

Though the land resources, below the land resources and those that occur on it or above

it have to be considered for the estimation of the real value of Kerala, we used only the land

resources to make our assessment.

Our Methodology

As the worth of land varies from place to place mainly due to its location in one or other of

the three physiographic divisions, we projected the cost of land in each of the physiographic

divisions. Therefore, the land area falling under the physiographic divisions were assessed

first using a 1: 2,000,000 scale map from the Resource Atlas of Kerala (Anonymous, 1984)

and a polar planimeter.

But we realized the inadequacy of the generally accepted division, viz., the high land

(>75.0 m), mid land (between 8.0 and 75.0 m) and coastal land (< 8.0 m). Hence we modified

the three fold division for the purpose of this estimation by replacing the highland with two

new divisions. They are high highland (> 600.0 m). Height of the bars in Fig. 3.1 shows the

distribution of land area under each one of the four divisions.

What is the price?

Table 3.2 provides an estimate of the areas covered by the four divisions, the unit price

we have applied for each of the divisions and total worth of the state in terms of rupees. The

current values of each of the four divisions of the state are given in Figure 3.2.

Our estimates show that the total worth of the state s land resources are priced at Rs.

1080 Billion or say US $ 36.0 Billion. The mid land area is the costliest at Rs. 539.0 Billion,

where as the low land is priced at Rs. 110 Billion. The low high land is equally pricy, with its

projected cost of Rs. 287.0 Billion. The high highland is the cheapest of all at Rs. 74.2 Billion.

In fact, we believe that the rocky and mountainous terrain, with ever green forest patches and

the hidden plantations in priceless.

Summary

We figured that in order to convey the gigantic nature of the loss due to the SLR

phenomenon, we would require very novel strategies. Generally speaking, as human it is

difficult for us perceive very large numbers or long periods of time, for example geologic time.

One of the ways this task could made easier is to use some method of comparison.

Therefore, it was decided to make a construct like the current rupee value of the state and

compare the loss figures with the same.

Outside of the SDP, no readily available figure was around. We therefore, developed our

own method for the estimation of the rupee value of the land area of the state. For this

purpose, the highland region, recognized in the three fold physiographic division of the state,

was subdivided in to low highland (between 75.0 and 600.0 m) and high highland (above

600.0 m).

Further, using certain unit values for the land in the four physiographic divisions, the

worth of land area of Kerala has been determined as Rs. 1080 Billion.

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SECTION IV

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SLR

Introduction

The specter of sea level rise due to green house effect (SLR), has initially created

considerable degree of concern in the minds of many groups of scientists engaged in

research on climatic change and its consequences, viz., the potential colossal damage the

littoral states of various continents would be exposed to. Nevertheless, there are large

number of active disbelievers of the SLR phenomenon.

One of the ways of cautioning the public at large and the administrators including policy

makers and politicians, is to work out several different scenarios of the potential loss of

services, goods, property as well as land as a result of the phenomenon of SLR. In this

research we had attempted to come up with a first approximation assessment of economic

loss due to SLR, by taking into account, most of the man made items, services and natural

resources of an area that is exposed to the potential threat of SLR.

Although we had in our third report worked out the variability of inundation and erosion

due to the SLR scenarios proposed by Hofman (1984), in our assessment procedure, no

weightage is given for the along the cost variability of the erosional and inundational threat.

This is due to the constraints of access, extended period of working with aerial photos and

feature extraction processes and the time limits imposed on us. Therefore, an inventory of

most of the natural and man made features (Table- 4.1) in a strip of land of 500 meters lying

parallel and adjacent to the shoreline (wact) were made from the aerial photos. Further, in all

the estimations that followed, the area, resources, and services of the high coastal land has

been subtracted from the data used for making the final estimates of loss.

Methodology

Estimate of economic loss should be estimated by addressing the extent of modification

of net economic services (NES) due to SLR (Gibbs, 1984). As the community that is affected

by the SLR normally carries out a set of economic activities, the estimate of NES and its

modification should reflect the loss. NES is a sum total of the returns from a set of

investments (gross services). A second category of loss would be increased costs of

maintenance and falling returns from the investments and loss entailed due to it. In order to

estimate the loss NES, one would have to carefully enumerate the categories of man made

and natural items that would be threatened or damaged by the SLR.

In any analysis of damage and destruction, the costs involved primarily in the

maintenance and repair (PMR) of the unit is to be assessed. These costs can be broken

down into three categories, viz., costs of maintenance to cover the routine depreciation; the

costs of storm and flood damage; and costs of action taken to mitigate, prevent or to respond

to the physical damages due to SLR.

Procedures of NES estimation

Ideally assessment of NES can be illustrated by taking a mundane example of a person

owning a house in the wact (Gibbs, 1984). This person earns a basic satisfaction of

possessing it, including value of land, capital cost of structure and all the amenities. Say in

any year, j, he derives some net economic services equal to NESj, which is equal to the

returns derived from the house (Sj), for example all the monies that would be collected minus

the maintenance cost (Hj).

NESj = Sj Hj (1)

Further, investments that occur during the year, NESj is assessed as below:

NESj = Sj Hj Nij (2)

According to Gibbs (1984) as the evaluation of NES covers a finite period of time, a final

term must be added to the eq-2 to reflect the value of remaining capital stock (CS) at the end

of the period, i.e, those things with remaining useful lives. For example cost of a new building

that came up in the final year of analysis needs to be included in the NES for that year. So

the eq-2 can now be modified to include all terms evaluated over time using the present value

(PV).

PV (NES) = PV (S) PV (H) PV (NI) + PV (CS) (3)

Further according to Gibbs (1984), all articles of value can be assumed to provide a

stream of services (for e.g., a house provides a housing service). While assessing the impact,

all such units and items whose services and would be affected will have to be included or

else the results would be biased.

In the case of economic services, input of labor, capital and land would be involved as

the latter two are affected by the SLR resulting in damage, disuse or loss of the land as well

as affected by SLR. It is always better to use the current prices in making the assessments of

loss and damage to various streams and sources of services.

Finally behaviour of people directly affected by SLR must be taken into account.

Unfortunately, as the general public including institutions and others do not generally worry

too much about such and other natural disasters like sea level rise (and most of the time

rather irrationally), it is difficult to build in proper weightage for such behavior in the economic

analysis of SLR and consequences.

For example, the settlers in the Low Coastal Land have exposed to the behavior of the

sea as well as the phenomenon of beach erosion resulting in severe damages to land

property and others, perhaps irrationally, new settlements and other economic activities are

restarted after the beaches slowly rebuild in the post monsoon season. Another point of

interest is the landslides, which are very common in the hilly tracts of Wayanad and Idukki

districts of Kerala. It appears that with all the publicity if damage to crops and deaths of

people, the avoidance of potential sites of slides for various activities are yet gain currency

among the people. Economic reasons are perhaps the prime motivators of the economically

weaker people to go back to threatened beaches and hills. Thus public reaction to the SLR

and consequences shall also be not quite different. However, at least when it comes to the

governmental activities, the issue of SLR and its consequences should hopefully be earning

appropriate weightage from planners and developers.

Table. 4.1, is a list of most of the common categories of man made investments and

natural features to be taken into account in estimating NES. What are excluded in the table

and in most of the loss estimates is the industrial undertakings, shipyards, airports, ancient

light houses in the lowland, power distribution installations like transformer yards and

switching yards, wetland resources, intra coastal water ways, telephone and telegraph

network of wact etc. This is mostly because of our inability to earn useful data sets from

source agencies.

Data Collection

The data collection in regard to the loss estimate due to SLR, were mostly indirect. Data

on primary and secondary resources for the northern WACT were collected from the aerial

photos of 1 : 15,000 scale (Table 4.2 A to E), where as a picture of the investments and

resources distributed in the southern WACT was gathered by enumeration of the objects and

features in shore perpendicular transects of 25m. width extending landward (Table 4.3).

Advantages of anticipating SLR

In fact, the research that culminated into this and other three earlier reports is the direct

advantage of anticipating SLR. On the other hand, if SLR is not worried about the damages

and loss consequent on the flooding and erosion of land as well as of beaches, would go

down as another disastrous natural event in the history of our nation. Further, there is large

element of uncertainty about the consequences or of the rates of SLR. Therefore, human

response to such phenomenon like SLR are also bound to be very low.

Very plainly the advantages of anticipating SLR would be the avoidance of immediate

loss and damage to the natural as well as manmade objects, services and facilities. Further,

if SLR is anticipated, right investments could be made in the right sites if necessary even

outside of the WACT. Ultimately this would result in the reduction of community PMR costs.

Summary

Estimation of the potential loss that an individual, a community, a Province or a State

would face is primarily a task of Environmental geologists (resource managers). In fact, such

assessments are very essential and are of strategic importance in the future of a nation, as

such information would put the resource allocatios for future projects, investments and

programs in the proper perspective before the administrators and politicians.

The knowledge of the nature and extent of loss also would enable the politicians and

administrators to enact new zoning regulations, or modify the existing one to minimize or to

eliminate the right investments in wrong places. Only enactment of laws could ensure

investments by individuals to take place at safer places like outside of the WACT or within the

WACT.

In fact, the assessment program is very cumbersome as proper weightage needs to be

given to various categories of resources as well as services that would be affected and would

call for increased costs of maintenance. In addition, there are not only loss of services and

goods, but there will be loss of opportunities.

It is not only the directly exposed would-be-affected-Tract of (WACT), and its people that

would suffer, but the adjacent areas and people also would be indirectly affected by the

damages done to the natural and manmade resources in the WACT.

As far as this work is concerned, due to first approximation nature of this study, we had to

gather data only indirectly from various archival sources to be analyzed for this study.

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SECTION V

POTENTIAL LOSS TO KERALA

Introduction

The potential threat and consequent loss of land and property along the Kerala coast was

projected in our third report where we analyzed the beach profiles and the near shore profiles

with the Brunn s rule. Certain generalizations were arrived at from such an analysis.

The application of Brunn s rule to the profile data to sites from Kanyakumari to Kunjathur,

suggested that the extent of inundation or erosion is not uniform from one tip of the province

to the other. Firstly, the physiography of the coastal land is a very important determinant in

the context of erosion and flooding.

The Kerala coastal land though falls below an elevation of 8.0m., the coastal land zone

includes areas that are taller than the 8.0m. cut off. This has enabled us to classify the

coastal land into High Coastal Land (> 8.0m.) and Low Coastal Land (< 8.0m.). In fact, it is

the geology of the coastal land zone that makes this division feasible. Our analyses have

showed that the potential for erosional and inundational threat would be at their full height in

the LCL.

Therefore, in our quest of work out the economic loss to Kerala due to SLR, we have

elected an average width of 500m. to the would-be-affected-tract or WACT.

Items excluded in the estimates

In the lost estimates, we have included all possible resources / investments in the WACT.

For example, Tables 5.1, 5.2 & 5.3 list out the categories viz., bore wells constructed by the

CGWB, intra-coastal water ways and tourist destinations falling in the WACT, excluded from

the analysis/

Nature of Distribution of Loss

In the WACT, there exists a great variability in the distribution of the resources,

investments etc. in side the 500m. zone. Table 5.3A and Fig. 5.1A lists the developmental

Blocks having a sea shoreline and hence falling under the WACT. There several municipal

towns and cities that are in the WACT.

In order to assess the potential loss, we had followed a dual strategy of data collection.

For the WACT, between Mattancherry and Kunjathur, a program of enumeration of all the

manmade and natural objects and resources were counted from aerial photographs of

1:15,000 scale.

As pointed out earlier, due to lack of access to airphotos, enumeration of objects and

investments in selected transect were made to base the same in the estimation of

investments and resources. This latter method uses selection of 25m. wide transects lying

very close to the urban area of Trivandrum, rural and subrural areas as well as rural industrial

towns. This data set was used in the loss estimates for the WACT south of Mattancherry to

Marthandanthurai. We however did not extent this exercise to the Kanyakumari Dist.

In the second stage, to make a loss estimate, we further assumed that WACT between

Mattanchery and Marthandanthurai looked exactly like any one of the seven transects we

studied. Based on this assumption we estimated the loss for the southern sector. This list of

items inventoried and assessed for loss are given in the tables.

Table 5.4 provides the current rates used for estimation of loss. The nature of distribution

of loss for the northern WACT is given in Table 5.5A, B, C & D. Table 5.6A & B depict the

summary of loss estimated for northern WACT.

In tables 5.5B, C, & D; we have projected the loss due to SLR, assessed out of the aerial

photos covered by specific topographic sheets. Damage in terms of rupees is listed for

various categories of objects and investments made in the WACT. Where ever possible all

the manmade and natural objects / items have been included.

Rupee Value of Loss

Tables 5.6A & B are the summary of results of loss estimate based on aerial

photographic data for the northern WACT. A total loss of Rs. 11.27 Billion (Rs. 2.43 Billion in

table 5.6A and if Rs. 8.84 Billion in 5.6B) has been projected in these estimates.

The estimated loss based on the inventories of the seven transects for the WACT south

of Mattancherry is given in Table 5.7. the loss ranges between Rs. 72.1 Billion if the wact

entirely looked like the Beemapally (B Pally) transect and Rs. 7.2 Billion if it were like IRE

Chavara transect from north to south.

Loss estimates, based on the inventory of seven transects in the southern WACT, can be

seen in Table 5.7 and Table 5.8 the total loss for the southern WACT based on the seven

samples.

The summary of results are displayed in a bar chart (Fig. 5.1). The sum of the loss for the

northern and southern WACT s would be considerable for the state (Table 5.9). It ranges

between Rs. 18.47 Billion (if the southern WACT looked like IRE Chavara transect from one

end to the other) and Rs. 83.37 Billion (if the model of Beemapalli transect is used instead).

Summary

All loss estimates in the WACT were estimated only indirectly. Further, some pieces of

data pertaining to wact remain either uncollected or unused. But majority of resources and

investment information have been made use of in the assessment. In actuality, all those

pieces of resource information that could be gathered from aerial photographs of 1 : 15,000

by skilled personal were meticulously gathered for the northern WACT i.e., Kunjathur to

Mattanchery.

In the case of southern WACT, lying between Mattenchery and Marthandanthurai, the

investment, natural resource and similar other data were collected by inventorying seven

selected transects representing the urban, near urban, rural and industrial rural regions.

The loss estimates were then made from data sets derived from the aerial photos and the

unit prices for the investments, in the northern WACT.

For the southern wact, to estimate the economic impact, ideally each one of the sampled

transects were assumed to represent the entire region. Hence, seven different scenarios of

loss were constructed. As we did not know nor had data at hand on the percentage

contribution of each one of the transect to the resource data of the southern WACT, we

couldn t give joint weightage for all the transect data, in our estimates of loss for the southern

WACT.

Therefore, when we propose total loss estimates ranging between Rs. 18.47 and Rs.

83.37 Billion (Fig. 5.1) for the state of Kerala due to SLR, we provide seven different

scenarios by combining the loss suffered by the northern WACT, with those for the seven

specific transects sampled and assessed in southern WACT. This would amount to a per

capita loss between Rs. 637 amd Rs. 2875 to the state.

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SECTION VI

PREPARING FOR SLR

Introduction

With regard to any plan for mitigating the potential threat of natural catastrophes like

SLR, an action plan needs to evolved and implemented by the government agencies with the

help of people and other non-governmental organizations (NGO s). In fact, it is easy to

distinguish two major players viz., the organized sector guided by government industry and

the unorganized sector mainly constituting the individuals of families, in the development

activity in any program of development of a country.

The organized sector (involved in ORGANIZED ACTION or OA) includes the

government, quasi government, and the private industry, whereas the contributions made by

individual citizens in the development arena by farming, building houses, by manufacturing in

small scale sector etc. would fall under the unorganized sector. For sake of convenience

such developments by the latter are classed under RANDOM ACTION (RA).

In general, in countries like ours most of the activities in regard to the development like

industrialization, large scale house building of service industry, construction of transport and

communication networks, disaster relief etc. are solely or partly implemented as an organized

action. Therefore, naturally, sufficient care and planning should bestowed and the activities if

required can be regulated in this sector by government.

But in the case of RA by an individual or a family in a community, it is nearly impossible

to have any major governmental control guiding its role in the observance of developmental

themes and loci. Even in the context of SLR, and existing or to be adopted zoning laws, the

aforesaid random actions are difficult for policing.

Proposed Action Plan

It is suggested that a multifaceted strategy of legislation of new regulations to control and

direct developments in the more safe tracts of WACT or out side of it should be adopted.

Secondly, it is proposed that modified designs of protective structures like groins and sea

walls be implemented, at sites of impending threat to major industrial investments of the

WACT.

It is also proposed that the funds earmarked for construction of seawalls to protect the

coastal communities by building sea walls should hereafter be used for construction of multi-

storey, multi-family houses (Fig.6.1). Such houses would have the ground level floor left open

without walls in order to allow overwash to pass freely under the structure. This area can also

be a storage space for the tools and crafts used for fisheries.

Most importantly, the proper and timely education of the public should be attempted

through governmental machinery, media and NGO s to create an awareness of the potential

dangers and risks of sea level rise to the property and land in the WACT.

Further as a continuation, this study should be followed by a country wide research

program to document the nature and extent of exact losses of various categories suffered by

each of the blocks and wards having a shoreline in order to refine the economic impact

estimates proposed by us.

Amendments to the CZM Act

The Coastal Zone Management Act now published in the Gazette of India should be

modified to include clauses to take care of the potential threats to land and property due to

SLR. For example, the investments already made should be brought under proper insurance

cover to protect the investors from huge losses in the event of SLR related damages.

Secondly, the CZM act should have provisions to prevent large scale investments in the

Low Coastal Land (LCL), which rises not more than 8.0 meters above the high tide mark. For

example no new investments should be permitted within 500 meters of the modern shore

line.

However, for investments in respect of High Coastal Land (i.e., those sectors that are

above 8.0 meters), the 500 meter stipulation can be waived, in lieu of a proviso that such

sites should be successfully screened for their stability of slopes etc., before permission is

granted for developmental constructions. In general past achievements in the LCL, cannot be

shifted to other sites due to the threat from SLR. Instead they should be afforded required

degree of protection by building protective structures like groins or sea walls. Further, the

investors should be advised of the consequences of SLR and also should be advised against

any plan for expansion. As far as possible those investments that can be relocated or shifted

to more safe and secure sites, should encouraged to do so.

As far as educating the public goes, financial help from agencies like UNEP, voluntary

organizations, NGO s etc. should be sought. This program should aim at the population of

different age groups. In fact, the literacy program should have a component Global Change

and Green House Effect. In the higher secondary courses units dealing with global

environmental change, its implications and how can this be prevented shall be included.

Free allocation of at least 10% of the printed page once a week in the printed media for

publication of advertisements dealing with the global environmental change, its

consequences and how individuals can help prevent these, should be made mandatory. The

electronic media also should adopt such a policy.

Epilogue

In fact, like every monsoon season in Kerala, this year s monsoon also inflicted its toll of

erosional damage to the back beach properties, investments and services. Despite this

routine economic activities of various sorts (like reconstructions, fisheries, tourist inflow etc.)

take place in the back beaches of Kerala.

Truly, we can think of measures and design them for implementation for protecting the

properties and investments in the WACT. Most of the design tasks will have to be enlarged

up on the currently practiced measures like, construction of dikes and heightening of dikes.

Systematically positioned well sites can be magnitude of intrusion of salt water in to the

coastal aquifers. Artificial recharge is another means of reducing the salt water intrusion.

SUMMARY

The implications of SLR due to green house effect will be detrimental to the economy as

well as the life style of the people of Kerala. In fact, all the littoral states of the Indian Union

will face very serious damages to the physical system and the extent of overall damage will

be proportional to the population density, distribution of population and intensity of industrial

activity.

In fact, the government should take the initiative to legislate suitable laws or amend the

existing to control and regulate future investments in the WACT (would be affected areas) in

the coastal tract of country.

For example in the LCL, Low Coastal Land (<8.0 m in elevation) generally no investment

of any longterm nature shall be allowed in the backshore with in 500 meters of the modern

shoreline.

In the case of HCL, High Coastal Land (>8.0 m in elevation), beach front development

should be allowed only if the land is certified to be fairly durable in respect to stability of

slopes etc.

Further, a new scheme of insurance of properties and installations must be instituted to

insure the investments that have already been made in the WACT. Another aspect of the

program should be the education of the citizens of the country especially those people who

are directly exposed to the potential threat of coastal erosion and flooding due to SLR.

New designs need to be developed for the groins and sea walls so that such modified

design would fairly safely protect the investments that have been made already.

The citizens of the country should be provided with sufficient exposure to the global

environmental change and its consequences, and what could be done at the level of the

individuals to postpone or mitigate the adverse effects.

Lastly, a research program to refine the first approximation estimates of loss should be

developed and implemented.

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REFERENCES

1. Anonymous, 1984, Resource Atlas of Kerala: Center for Earth Science Studies,

Trivandrum, 97p.

2. Gibbs, M. J., Economic Analysis of Sea Level Rise : Methods and Results, 215-252, in

Barth, M. C. & Titus. J. G. (ed.), 1984, Green House Effect and Sea Level Rise: Van

Nostrand and Reinhold, New York.

3. Hoffman, J. S., 1984, Estimates of future sea level rise : in Barth, M. C. & Titus. J. G.

(ed.), 1984, Green House Effect and Sea Level Rise: New York, Van Nostrand and

Reinhold, 79-103.

4. Thrivikramaji, K. P., 1981, On the evolution of lagoons of Kerala coast : (Abst.),

International Oceanography Congress, UNESCO, Paris.

5. Thrivikramaji, K. P., Anirudhan, S. and Nair, A. S. K., 1983, Shoreline fluctuations along

Kerala coast: Retrospect, Perspect and Prospect; In Nambiar,K. R. (ed.), Proceedings

of the National Seminar on Environmental Management in Kerala, Trichur, 103-121.

REPORTS SUBMITTED EARLIER

1. Thrivikramji, K. P. & Anirudhan, S. 1990, Sea Level Rise Due to Green House Effect:

Implications to Kerala: Interim Tec. Report submitted to DOEn, Govt. of India, New Delhi,

48p.

2. -----------Do--------------- , 1991, Sea Level Rise Due to Green House Effect: Implications to

Kerala: Second six monthly report submitted to DOEn, Govt. of India, New Delhi, 91p.

3. -----------Do--------------- , 1991, Implications of Sea Level Rise Due to Green House Effect:

Application of Brunn s Model: Third six monthly report submitted to DOEn, Govt. of India,

New Delhi, 51p.