sean beevers dmug 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Developing a hybrid exposure model in London
Sean Beevers King’s College London
Traffic Pollu8on and Health in London project
http://www.erg.kcl.ac.uk/ResearchProjects/Traffic/Default.aspx?DeptID=ResearchProjects&CategoryID=ResearchProjectsTraffic
WP2 modelling
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College London
Uses: Conges8on charging, Low Emissions Zones, Mayor's Air Quality Strategy (hMp://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Air%20Quality%20Strategy%20v3.pdf ) Epidemiological research and Health Impact assessments
London air quality model results -‐ hMp://data.london.gov.uk/laei-‐2008
Sources Road transport Avia8on sources Passenger and commercial shipping Passenger and freight rail Large regulated industrial processes (Part A) Small regulated industrial processes (Part B) Gas hea8ng (domes8c and industrial-‐commercial) Oil combus8on sources (domes8c and large boiler plant), Coal combus8on sources (domes8c and commercial) Construc8on source (NRMM, construc8on/demoli8on) Others (agricultural, landfill, waste transfer, accidental fires and household sources) Biomass burning
Present: Sta8c approach to exposure assessment
Future: Hybrid approach to exposure assessment
Sta8c and Hybrid approaches to exposure assessment
Hybrid modelling for “Traffic”
Coupled local/regional scale modelling (CMAQ-‐urban)
Model outputs: NOX, NO2, O3, PM components Compu8ng facili8es…..you can’t have enough Emissions inventories UK Na8onal Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) King’s Great Britain road traffic emissions European Monitoring and Evalua8on Programme (EMEP, hMp://www.ceip.at/) European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (EPRTR) Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS v3.14) VOC and soil NO Eclipse -‐ IIASA
Boundary condi8ons
Beevers SD , Kitwiroon N, Williams ML, Carslaw DC. 2012. One way coupling of CMAQ and a road source dispersion model for fine scale air pollu8on predic8ons. Atmospheric Environment 59, pp 47-‐58
Hybrid exposure model CMAQ-‐urban air quality model
Micro-‐environmental modelling: in-‐vehicle (bus, car, train, tube), cycle, walk, indoors (I/O exchange -‐ J Taylor (UCL))
Oyster card data Detailed human exposure
London Travel Demand Survey: Trips by transport mode: Sex, age, gender and socio-‐economic status
J Taylor et al., 2014. The modifying effect of the building envelope on popula8on exposure to PM2.5 from outdoor sources. Indoor Air. doi:10.1111/ina.12116
Using the LTDS however, we have data on 85,000 people journeys for 24 hours
2005/2006 5008 households, 11583 people, 29,797 trips, 61,542 stages 2006/2007 8005 households, 18241 people, 47,029 trips, 95,930 stages 2007/2008 7873 households, 17926 people, 44,828 trips, 91,967 stages 2008/2009 8134 households, 18975 people, 43,076 trips, 89,701 stages 2009/2010 8290 households, 19187 people, 43,475 trips, 92,121 stages 2010/2011 Will get data soon 2011/2012 Will get data soon
Scaled up to the London population ~ 7 million people
The London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) from TfL – it’s anonymised
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health Imperial College London
London journeys
Distance travelled by popula8on age
~ 25% of people stay at home Walk: 164,368, Car: 123,043 Bus: 103,554, Underground: 11,277
PM2.5 exposure if you are 65 years and older (most important mode)
Geographic dose to NOX (top) and PM2.5 (boMom) Static model Hybrid model
NOX and PM2.5 Dose by age group
add some of the uncertainty being undertaken by Christina
In-‐car PM2.5 results (sensi8vity)
Model evalua8on
CMAQ-‐urban model evalua8on No sites
NO2 96 NOx 96 O3 41 PM10 106 PM2.5 68
Fuller GW et al, 2013. Atmospheric Environment 68, 295–296. Fuller GW et al, 2014. Contribu8on of wood burning to PM10 in London. Atmospheric Environment (accepted, publica8on pending). Frank N 2006 Retained Nitrate, Hydrated Sulfates, and Carbonaceous Mass in Federal Reference Method Fine Par8culate MaMer for Six Eastern U.S. Ci8es. ISSN 1047-‐3289 J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 56:500–511
SOA ~ 1ug m-‐3 (Derwent and c.f. observa8ons) Biomass burning ~ 1ug m-‐3 (Fuller 2013/4) Strongly bound water -‐ (Franks 2006)
Exposure measurements hMp://www.londonair.org.uk/london/asp/news.asp?NewsId=CityAirpressrelease
Collecting other person monitoring data - Schools Study, COPE, measuring in the tube, have lots more to do.
Uncertainty Analysis in Atmospheric modelling Quan8fying model uncertainty becomes prohibi8ve for models with long run 8mes. Reduce the number of parameters through sensi8vity analysis (214 to 31) Our solu8on is to build an ‘emulator’
Model input
Outpu
t
Training run
Bayesian Calibra?on Each Monte Carlo run is weighted according to its probability of corresponding to observa8onal data This shivs the mean of the uncertainty distribu8on towards the observed value and reduces its standard devia8on
The future….
Indoor model -‐ important addi8on to the current hybrid model Model evalua?on -‐ MRC funded project, Characterising COPD Exacerba8ons using Environmental Exposure Modelling (COPE) project Uncertainty of the hybrid approach Develop sources within the model that are currently poorly understood -‐ non-‐exhaust emissions, biomass burning, cooking etc
Thanks for your aMen8on… Thanks to colleagues ERG modelling: NuMhida Kitwiroon, David Dajnak, Andrew Beddows, Chris8na Mitsakou, James Smith, Gregor Stewart and Jonathon Taylor (UCL) Transport for London and the Greater London Authority
We thank the Natural Environment Research Council, Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Department of Health for the funding received for the Traffic Pollu8on and Health in London project (NE/I008039/1), funded through the Environmental Exposures and Health Ini8a8ve (EEHI). The research was also supported by the Na8onal Ins8tute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Founda8on Trust and King’s College London.