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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Seasonal Modeling ProjectPI - Nancy Brown, LBNL

Nicole DavisCEC Project Manager

Kick Off MeetingCCOS Technical Meeting

August 15, 2005

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

PIER-EA Program The California Energy Commission's Public

Interest Energy Research (PIER) Environmental Area (EA), which focuses on the effects of energy generation and use on California's air quality.

Two objectives of PEIREA Air Quality- Develop the tools to assess air quality impacts of

energy generation on nearby communities, and Quantify the air quality impacts of energy-

efficiency and load management measures.

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Seasonal Modeling Project Overview CEC funded project: $800,000 June 2005 – June 2008 Principal Investigator: Nancy Brown, LBNL

Objectives: Develop and validate a seasonal modeling platform for

Central California by modeling the entire 2000 summer season using CMAQ.

Investigate how emission control requirements and the need for more electric generating capacity can be optimized in space and time to bring Central California into compliance with the new ozone standards

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Work will Include:

Computer enhancements Inventory development Protocol development Validation and QA from episodic to seasonal Seasonal modeling runs Report and analysis and guidance documents

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

CEC’s Interest in Seasonal Modeling

Increasing number of non-compliance areas justifies use of seasonal modeling

Environmental vs. emissions effects can be statically analyzed and further the state of science

Inter- basin transport can be investigated on a broader scale

Control strategy effectiveness using seasonal modeling may differ

Multi-pollutant analysis requires seasonal modeling

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Increasing Non-Compliance Areas

Many power plants located in Rural Areas may be newly classified in non-attainment with the 8 hour ozone standard.

Because of the scope of data, seasonal modeling may provide different recommendations and alternatives for reducing ozone than episodic modeling.

Investigate effects of both power plant emissions and DG emissions on moderate and high levels of ozone occurrences throughout Central California.

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Interbasin Transport Investigation

Interbasin and short-term credit trading have the potential to mitigate some of the fiscal and environmental impacts of the forecasted surge in electricity growth in California

There is currently a lack of sound scientific evidence of the air quality impacts of such strategies

Seasonal modeling will be used for analyzing long range and long term impact of several trading scenarios

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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Control Strategy Effectiveness

It is unknown whether strategies developed from the study of a small number of episodes will be effective for other episode types with different meteorology and emissions

Seasonal modeling will enable evaluating the model over a very broad range of conditions that are simply not sampled when episodic modeling is conducted.

Several scenarios will be modeled to determine potential impacts of DG and power plant placement, operation, growth, and control options.