seaton neighbourhood planning

Background Report |

Seaton Neighbourhood PlanningEvaluation ofRetail /Service Needs

Prepared For: City of Pickering

Prepared By: Robin Dee & Associates

May 2010

Seaton Neighbourhood Planning: Evaluation of Retail / Service Needs

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................................................... 2 3. POPULATION............................................................................................................................................................ 3 4. INCOME...................................................................................................................................................................... 3 5. EXPENDITURE POTENTIALS ............................................................................................................................. 4 6. RESIDUAL RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 5 7. ADDITIONAL SERVICE SPACE DEMAND ...................................................................................................... 7 8. SUMMARY ADDITIONAL RETAIL/SERVICE SPACE DEMANDS 2031 .................................................. 8 9. PRELIMINARY DISTRIBUTION RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................... 8

Seaton Neighbourhood Planning: Evaluation of Retail / Service Needs Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

The City of Pickering is undertaking a neighbourhood planning exercise as required under the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP) for the neighbourhoods within Seaton. This neighbourhood planning exercise will result in detailed neighbourhood plans and policies to guide the form and nature of development in accordance with the CPDP. This includes protection of the natural heritage system; integration of cultural heritage resources; provision for a full range of housing opportunities; creation of walkable mixed-use neighbourhoods, and establishment of densities that can support transit. These neighbourhood plans and policies will be approved by the City of Pickering and incorporated into the City’s Official Plan. As part of this Seaton neighbourhood planning exercise, the CPDP requires background work in a number of areas. One such area is a Retail Market Analysis Study, which is to assess and rationalize the appropriate amount of retail floor space to service the population in Seaton. Key policies of the CPDP pertaining specifically to retail and service commercial uses for Seaton include:

• Require the development of a liveable, transit-oriented community with mixed-use and higher-density development along transit spines.

• Develop mixed-use areas, which support of higher-density residential uses in association with related commercial and institutional uses, and which can be intensified over time.

• Create a compact neighbourhood structure with an appropriate mix of land-uses to serve local residents and visitors.

• Provide retail and service commercial uses in the new urban community to serve the needs of residents and businesses, such that sufficient retail and commercial uses are planned to meet local needs, in forms and locations consistent with the objectives and policies of this Plan for urban design.

• Identify and provide through the neighbourhood Planning process, a hierarchy of retail and commercial uses for the urban community that addresses, among other matters, city and region-wide market demand and supply considerations, and the City of Pickering’s Official Plan policies with respect to the primacy of the Downtown Core and Special Purpose Commercial Uses.

• Require the City of Pickering and the Regional Municipality of Durham to work co-operatively to assess and rationalize, through the preparation of a Seaton Retail Market Analysis Study, to be carried out in conjunction with preparation of the first neighbourhood Plan, the appropriate amount of retail floor space to serve the population of the Development Planning Area. In the event that it is determined that revisions are required to the size and locations of major retailing land uses within the urban community, these findings may be incorporated in the Neighbourhood Plans without the need for an amendment to this Plan, provided the goals, objectives and policies of this Plan are met.


The notion of sustainability is integral to every dimension of the CPDP. This notion along with the emphasis on compact, mixed-use neighbourhoods will of necessity result in the planning for commercial areas that are much more integrated into the neighbourhood fabric than is often typical of new residential areas.

As part of the team engaged to Provide Consulting Services for the Seaton Neighbourhood Planning Review, Robin Dee & Associates’ has been asked to evaluate the retail/service space needs for the Seaton Community having due regard to the CPDP policies cited above. This has required a review of the earlier “Seaton Retail Analysis” prepared by IBI Group in September 2005 including, methodology, key study inputs, assumptions and findings. 2. METHODOLOGY

As in the IBI study, the focus of this analysis is on the Seaton Community in order to plan for a retail hierarchy within the community. However, like the IBI study, the analysis also examines the potential for additional retail/service space within the City of Pickering as a whole, including the Seaton Community. Evaluating future Seaton Community space needs in the context of the demands within the City as a whole serves to ensure that retail development in Seaton will complement retail/service facilities in the City of Pickering. The City’s Official Plan includes policies regarding protection of the Downtown Core, Community Nodes, Local Nodes, Mixed Corridors and Specialty Retailing Nodes. Again similar to the IBI study, our analysis focuses on identifying retail/service space needs in Seaton once it has achieved a mature state of development. This provides a long-term perspective on space requirements that is appropriate for planning the future retail/service structure in Seaton. In the IBI study, the residual opportunity (i.e. opportunity over and above the base year market) is calculated as the difference between the total space supportable in the selected mature state year and the total existing space in the market in the selected base year. This approach requires detailed retail/service space inventory data for the City of Pickering by major category in the selected base year, i.e. 2005 in the IBI study. In our study, we have chosen 2009 as the base year and 2031 as representing a mature state for the Seaton Community. We don’t have available detailed retail/service space data for the City in 2009. However, for both these years, we can estimate the expenditure potential in the hands of Pickering residents including Seaton, and for Seaton alone, and the portion that is captured locally by facilities in Pickering including Seaton, and for Seaton itself. The difference between local based sales in the two years (mature state minus base year) is defined as residual potential which is factored up to represent total sales (including inflow sales) and then converted into warranted additional supportable space over the base year/ mature state time interval employing appropriate sales per square foot planning factors. The advantage of this approach is that it permits us to capture in the analysis the expected relative increase in incomes in Pickering vis-a-vis Ontario and hence the relative increase in per capita expenditures in Pickering compared to the Province.


Finally, we note that since the IBI study in 2005, Statistics Canada has changed the system of classifying business operations from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). We have employed the latest full year Statistics Canada retail trade sales data for Ontario based on NAICS and therefore the retail categories for which space estimates are made differ in some instances significantly from the old SIC categories. 3. POPULATION (Exhibit 1) In 2009, population in Pickering is estimated at 92,950 with Seaton at zero. (Note: in the discussion that follows the term “Pickering” denotes Pickering including Seaton in both the base year 2009 and the mature state 2031). The Seaton Community is planned to accommodate some 70,000 residents at build out. We have selected the year 2031 as representing a mature state for the Seaton Community at which time the population for Pickering is projected at 225,670 based on the Region of Durham’s OPA 128, including Seaton at 70,000.

4. INCOME (Exhibit 2) The average per capita income index for Pickering relative to Ontario (100.00) in 2009 is 103.72. In 2031 the Pickering index is estimated at 106.47 and the Seaton index is 106.12.

Exhibit 1 : Population

1991 1996 2001 2006 2009 2031

City of Pickering excl. Seaton 68,630 78,990 87,140 91,454 92,950 155,670Seaton 70,000Total Pickering 225,670Source: Centre for Spatial Economics based on Statistics Canada, Census 2006.

Exhibit 2 : Income (2010 $)

2009 2031Average Average Average Average Average Average

Houehold Persons Per Capita Houehold Persons Per CapitaIncome Per Unit Income Income Per Unit Income

Ontario $85,803 2.64 $32,501 $124,208 2.48 $50,084

Pickering $107,874 3.20 $33,711 $161,035 3.02 $53,323

Seaton $0 0 $0 $161,035 3.03 $53,147Per Capita Per Capita

Index IndexOntario 100.00 100.00Pickering 103.72 106.47Seaton 0.00 106.12Source: Centre for Spatial Economics based on Statistics Canada, Census 2006.


5. EXPENDITURE POTENTIALS (Exhibit 3)

In this Exhibit, expenditure potentials in the hands of Pickering and Seaton residents are calculated for three major retail store groups, namely, Non Food Store Retail (NFSR), Food Store Retail (FSR), and Liquor Beer Wine (LBW). The expenditure potentials for these groups are calculated by multiplying population by estimated per capita expenditure. Per capita expenditure factors are derived for Pickering and Seaton alone from the latest available full year (2008) retail trade data for Ontario by way of expenditure indexes for Pickering and Seaton relative to Ontario having regard for the predetermined relative per capita income indexes. A) Non Food Store Retail (NFSR) Potentials

NFSR expenditure potential in Pickering in the 2009 is estimated at $498.5 million. In 2031, it is estimated at $1,228.9 million, including $380.5 million in the hands of Seaton residents. We have broken down the total NFSR expenditure potential by five major sub-groups based on Ontario retail trade statistics to obtain a more detailed and meaningful indication of the additional NFSR space demands or needs in Pickering and Seaton for the forecast interval. The five major sub-groups of NFSR expenditure potential analyzed are listed below: i) General Merchandise

This major sub-group is broken down further into Department Stores and Other General Merchandise based on our best estimates. A key component of the Other General Merchandise category is Home and Auto Supply Stores, i.e. Canadian Tire stores. Together with Department stores, Canadian Tire stores play a key anchor role in commercial retail developments and therefore it is important to isolate as best as possible the opportunities that can be expected in Seaton for these major store types and the roles they might play in the mature Seaton retail structure.

ii) Building and Outdoor Supply Stores (BOHS)

This sub-group is dominated by another large format retail category, namely home improvement centres. It also includes the other smaller retailers such as hardware stores, paint stores, plumbing centres, etc.

iii) Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (PPCS) The dominant category in this sub-group is the drug Stores. It also includes such retailers as opticians and those specializing in health supplements, cosmetics, medical aids and equipment, etc.

Exhibit 3 : Expenditure Potentials

Non Food Store Retail (NFSR) Potentials (2008 $) 2031Total

2009 PickeringTotal Including Seaton

Pickering Seaton Only

OntarioPer Capita NFSR Expenditure* $5,252

Pickering/SeatonIncome Index to Ontario 103.72 106.47 106.12NFSR Expenditure Index ** 102.12 103.69 103.49

Per Capita Expenditure $5,363 $5,446 $5,435Population 92,950 225,670 70,000NFSR Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $498.528 $1,228.909 $380.456

General Merchandise Share:Department Store Share @ 14.1% 14.1% 14.1%Department Store Potential ($Millions) $70.293 $173.276 $53.644

Other General Merchandise (Excl. WMC Food) @ 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%Other Gen. Merch. (Excl. WMC Food) Potential ($M) $58.826 $145.011 $44.894

Building and Outdoor Supply Stores (BOHS) Share @ 12.9% 12.9% 12.9%BOHS Potential ($ Millions) $64.310 $158.529 $49.079

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (PPCS) Share @ 17.2% 17.2% 17.2%PPCS Potential ($ Millions) $85.747 $211.372 $65.438

Home Furnishings and Furniture Stores (HFFS) Share @ 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%HFFS Potential ($ Millions) $81.759 $201.541 $62.395

Other NFSR Share @ 27.6% 27.6% 27.6%Other NFSR Potential ($Millions) $137.594 $339.179 $105.006

* Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (63-005) ** Expenditure Index: Y = 43 +0.57(Income Index)

Food Store Retail (FSR) Potentials (2008 $) 2031Total



OntarioPer Capita FSR Expenditure* $2,195

Pickering/SeatonIncome Index to Ontario 103.72 106.47 106.12FSR Expenditure Index ** 100.37 100.65 100.61

Per Capita Expenditure $2,203 $2,209 $2,208Population 92,950 225,670 70,000FSR Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $204.785 $498.549 $154.590

Supermarket Share @ 81.5% 81.5% 81.5%$166.899 $406.318 $125.991

Specialty Food Store Share @ 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%$23.550 $57.333 $17.778

Warehouse Membership Club (WMC) Share @ 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%WMC Potential ( $ Millions) $14.335 $34.898 $10.821

* Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (63-005) ** Expenditure Index: Y = 90 +0.1(Income Index)

Liquor/Beer/Wine Potential (2008 $) 2031Total



OntarioPer Capita LBW Expenditure* $531

Pickering/SeatonIncome Index to Ontario 103.72 106.47 106.12LBW Expenditure Index ** 108.77 111.65 111.28

Per Capita Expenditure $578 $593 $591Population 92,950 225,670 70,000LBW Expenditure Potential ($ Millions) $53.686 $133.794 $41.364* Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (63-005) ** Expenditure Index: Y = 1.0487(Income Index)


iv) Home Furnishings and Furniture Stores (HFFS) Besides including furniture stores, home furnishings stores such as floor coverings, lighting stores, bedding/bath stores etc., and home electronics and appliance stores, computer and software stores also fall into this sub-group.

v) Other NFSR Stores This sub-group includes all the remaining NFSR stores not accounted for in the previous groups, the most notable being apparel and accessories stores, sporting goods/hobby/music/ book stores, and miscellaneous retail stores such as florist, office supply, pet stores, etc.

B) Food Store Retail (FSR) Potentials

This group includes supermarkets, specialty food stores such as convenience stores, bakeries, butchers, delicatessens, etc, and the food component of warehouse membership clubs (WMC), which we have extracted from the Other NFSR category. WMCs are another large retail outlet format and we felt we should attempt to isolate the opportunities for this category, if any, in Pickering and Seaton. Total FSR potential in Pickering in 2009 is estimated at $204.8 million increasing by 2031 to nearly $498.5 million, including almost $154.6 million in Seaton. The breakdown by major category in this group is based on provincial retail trade statistics and our best estimates.

C) Liquor Beer Wine (LBW) Potential

Total LBW potential in Pickering in 2009 is estimated at $53.7 million increasing by 2031 to some $133.8 million, including $41.4 million in Seaton.

6. RESIDUAL RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS (Exhibit 4)

For each retail sub-group or category analyzed, the expenditure potential in the hands of Pickering and Seaton residents is multiplied by an estimated capture rate to yield what is termed Local Based Sales. The base year capture rates are based on consumer survey results reported by Tate Economic Research INC. (TER) in their study “Wal-Mart Expansion, Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008”. Mature state capture rates are our best estimates. Subtracting base year local sales from mature state local sales yields estimated Residual Potential, which is local based. Residual Potential is factored up to Total Additional Sales employing an Inflow Sales factor. For base year Inflow Sales factors we have drawn on survey data contained in the urbanMetrics inc. (UMI) study “Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401 and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December, 2006”. Mature state Inflow Factors reflect our best estimates. Finally, Total Additional Sales are converted to estimates of Warranted Additional Space by dividing through by a Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor considered appropriate for the retail category in question.


A) Department Store Space Analysis

The warranted additional space estimated for total Pickering in 2031 amounts to some 407,000 square feet. The space need estimated for Seaton is a little under 150,000 square feet. We interpret these results as indicating a need for two additional departments stores in Pickering by 2031 as well as supporting expansion of existing department store facilities. The space demand in Seaton by 2031 will support one of the additional department stores identified for Pickering.

B) Other General Merchandise Space Analysis

Other General Merchandise space needs estimated for Pickering in 2031 amount to some 215,000 square feet, including some 122,000 square feet in Seaton. Of special note here is the inclusion of Home and Auto Supply (CTC) stores in the Other General Merchandise category as we have interpreted it for our analysis. Similar to the results of the department store analysis, these results suggest the opportunity or need for two additional CTC type stores, one of which is warranted in Seaton.

C) Building and Outdoor Home Supply Stores Space Analysis

The warranted additional space in Pickering in 2031 amounts to over 376,000 square feet which will translate into 2 to 3 new large format home improvement centres. The demand in Seaton at some 136,000 square feet is sufficient to warrant one of the additional home improvement centres identified for Pickering.

D) Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores Space Analysis

The Pickering demand for new space in this sub-group at mature state amounts to just over 169,000 square feet, about half of which is located in Seaton. The Seaton demand will support 3 to 4 new large format drug stores plus a variety of smaller personal care stores.

E) Home Furnishings and Furniture Stores Space Analysis

In this sub-group in the base year, the Pickering capture rate at around 20% is particularly low and indicative of a significant outflow of Pickering dollars in this sub-group to destinations outside the municipality. Over the forecast interval 2009 to 2031, we see the reasonable opportunity to redress this loss of local based sales and raise the capture rate to around 60%. Accordingly, we estimate the Pickering space demand in this sub-group in 2031 to amount to some 489,000 square feet, with just over 132,000 square feet suggested for Seaton.

Exhibit 4a : Residual Retail Demand Analysis

Department Store Space Analysis2031

Total2009 PickeringTotal Including Seaton


Department Store Potential ($Millions) $70.293 $173.276 $53.644Capture Rate * 92.6% 92.5% 65.0%Local Based Sales $65.091 $160.280 $34.869Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($65.091) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $95.190 $34.869Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $16.798 $6.153Total Additional Sales $111.988 $41.022Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $275 $275Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 407,228 149,171

Other General Merchandise Space Analysis (Excl. WMC)2031



Other General Merchandise Potential ($Millions) $58.826 $145.011 $44.894Capture Rate * 46.5% 50.0% 65.0%Local Based Sales $27.354 $72.506 $29.181Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($27.354) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $45.151 $29.181Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 30.0% 20.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $19.351 $7.295Total Additional Sales $64.502 $36.476Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $300 $300Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 215,007 121,587* Based on Tate Economic Research INC., "Wal-Mart Expansion,Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008", Appendix C, Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey** Based on urbanMetrics inc.,"Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December 20, 2006,Appendix C, Telephone Consumer Survey.

Exhibit 4b : Residual Retail Demand Analysis (Cont'd)

Building and Outdoor Home Supply Stores Space Analysis2031



BOHS Potential ($Millions) $64.310 $158.529 $49.079Capture Rate * 85.0% 90.0% 65.0%Local Based Sales $54.664 $142.676 $31.901Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($54.664) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $88.013 $31.901Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $15.532 $5.630Total Additional Sales $103.544 $37.531Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $275 $275Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 376,525 136,476

Pharmacies and Personl Care Stores Space Analysis2031



PPCS Potential ($Millions) $85.747 $211.372 $65.438Capture Rate * 91.5% 91.5% 85.0%Local Based Sales $78.458 $193.406 $55.623Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($78.458) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $114.947 $55.623Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $20.285 $9.816Total Additional Sales $135.232 $65.438Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $800 $800Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 169,040 81,798* Based on Tate Economic Research INC., "Wal-Mart Expansion,Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008", Appendix C, Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey** Based on urbanMetrics inc.,"Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December 20, 2006,Appendix C, Telephone Consumer Survey.

Exhibit 4c : Residual Retail Demand Analysis (Cont'd)

Home Furnishings and Furniture Stores Space Analysis2031



HFFS Potential ($Millions) $81.759 $201.541 $62.395Capture Rate * 20.7% 60.0% 45.0%Local Based Sales $16.924 $120.925 $28.078Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($16.924) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $104.001 $28.078Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $18.353 $4.955Total Additional Sales $122.354 $33.033Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $250 $250Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 489,415 132,130

Other NFSR Space Analysis2031



Other NFSR Potential ($Millions) $137.594 $339.179 $105.006Capture Rate * 75.0% 80.0% 60.0%Local Based Sales $103.195 $271.343 $63.003Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($103.195) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $168.148 $63.003Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0% Inflow Sales ($Millions) $29.673 $11.118Total Additional Sales $197.821 $74.122Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $325 $325Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 608,679 228,067* Based on Tate Economic Research INC., "Wal-Mart Expansion,Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008", Appendix C, Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey** Based on urbanMetrics inc.,"Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December 20, 2006,Appendix C, Telephone Consumer Survey.


F) Other NFSR Space Analysis

By 2031, we anticipate a demand for additional Other NSFR space in Pickering to be around 609,000 square feet, with a little under 40% of that space or 230,000 square feet located in Seaton. This sub-group, it was noted earlier, includes all the NSFR stores not otherwise accounted for under any of the previous NFSR sub-groups, especially the apparel and accessories category.

G) Supermarket Space Analysis

Warranted additional space in this category by 2031 in Pickering amounts to some 478,000 square feet, with around 202,000 square feet needed in Seaton. Depending on the size of supermarket modules proposed, the Seaton demand will accommodate between 3 and 5 supermarket operations.

H) Specialty Food Store Space Analysis

The demand for additional space in this category in Pickering by 2031 is some 141,000 square feet, nearly half of which should be provided for in Seaton.

I) Warehouse Membership Club Space Analysis

In 2009, the capture rate in Pickering is this category with the recent closure of Sam’s Club was effectively zero. By 2031, with the Pickering population at some 226,000 residents we have estimated that there will be sufficient local demand in Pickering to suggest support for a one WMC to serve all residents. Such a facility, we do not believe, would be optimally located in Seaton.

J) Liquor Beer Wine Space Analysis

Total Pickering demand for additional liquor/beer/wine facilities at the Seaton mature state is estimated to amount to approximately 95,000 square feet, some 50,000 square feet of which will be needed in Seaton.

7. ADDITIONAL SERVICE SPACE DEMAND (Exhibit 5)

Additional service space demand is calculated as the product of population increase above the base year times a selected space per capita service level factor. The IBI study employed a Total Services space per capita factor of 16 square feet. Our own experience has found the service levels in different communities the Golden Horseshoe area to range from 14 to 17 square feet. For the exercise at hand, we have employed the same Total Services space factor and distribution by service category as IBI. Total additional service space demand in Pickering by 2031 is estimated at a little over 2.1 million square feet. The equivalent demand estimated for the Seaton Community is 560,000 square feet.

Exhibit 4d : Residual Retail Demand Analysis (Cont'd)

Supermarket Space Analysis2031



Supermarket Potential ($ Millions) $166.899 $406.318 $125.991Capture Rate * 93.0% 93.0% 75.0%Local Based Sales $155.216 $377.875 $94.493Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($155.216) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $222.659 $94.493Plus:Inflow Sales Rate 15.0% 15.0%Inflow Sales ($Millions) $39.293 $16.675Total Additional Sales $261.952 $111.168Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $550 $550Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 476,276 202,124

Specialty Food Store Space Analysis2031



Specialty Food Store Potential ($ Millions) $23.550 $57.333 $17.778Capture Rate * 68.0% 75.0% 70.0%Local Based Sales $16.014 $43.000 $12.444Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($16.014) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $26.986 $12.444Plus:Inflow Sales Rate 15.0% 15.0%Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** $4.762 $2.196Total Additional Sales $31.748 $14.641Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $225 $225Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 141,102 65,069* Based on Tate Economic Research INC., "Wal-Mart Expansion,Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008", Appendix C, Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey** Based on urbanMetrics inc.,"Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December 20, 2006,Appendix C, Telephone Consumer Survey.

Exhibit 4e : Residual Retail Demand Analysis (Cont'd)

Warehouse Membership Club Space Analysis2031



WMC Food Potential ($ Millions) $14.335 $34.898 $10.821Capture Rate * 0.0% 95.0% 0.0%Local Based Sales $0.000 $33.154 $0.000Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) $0.000 $0.000Homeowners Residual Potential ($ Millions) $33.154 $0.000Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0%Inflow Sales ($Millions) $18.488 $18.488Total Homeowners Food Sales ($Millions) $39.004 $0.000Homeowners Food Sales as % of Total Sales 45.0% 45.0%Total Homeowner Sales -Food +Non Food ($Millions) $86.676 $0.000Homeowners Sales as % of Total Sales 80.0% 80.0%Total Food + Non Food Sales ($Millions) $108.345 $0.000Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $800 $800Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 135,431 0

Liquor Beer Wine Space Analysis2031



LBW Potential ($Millions) $53.686 $133.794 $41.364Capture Rate * 91.5% 91.5% 90.0%Local Based Sales $78.623 $183.389 $55.520Less: Base Year 2009 Sales ($ Millions) ($78.623) $0.000Residual Potential ($ Millions ) $104.766 $55.520Plus:Inflow Sales Rate ** 15.0% 15.0%Inflow Sales ($Millions) $18.488 $9.798Total Additional Sales $123.254 $65.318Sales Per Sq.Ft. Planning Factor $1,300 $1,300Warranted Additional Space - Square Feet 94,810 50,244* Based on Tate Economic Research INC., "Wal-Mart Expansion,Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, City of Pickering, ON, November 2008", Appendix C, Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey** Based on urbanMetrics inc.,"Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis, N.E. Corner, Highway 401and Salem Road & Corner Kingston Road and Audley Road, Town of Ajax, December 20, 2006,Appendix C, Telephone Consumer Survey.


8. SUMMARY ADDITIONAL RETAIL/SERVICE SPACE DEMANDS 2031 (Exhibit 6)

The total additional retail space demand identified for Pickering in 2031 amounts to just over 3.1 million square feet, which, combined with additional service space demand of 2.1 million square feet, yields a total need of commercial retail/service space of some 5.2 million square feet. In the Seaton Community, the mature state demand for retail space is about 1.2 million square feet. With the demand for services space at a little under 0.6 million square feet, the total retail/service space demand is in the order of 1.7 to 1.8 million square feet. (CAVEAT: The retail space demand estimates exclude automobile dealerships. The service space demand estimates exclude public institutional space (government offices, libraries, schools etc.)

9. PRELIMINARY DISTRIBUTION RECOMMENDATIONS The CPDP anticipates retail space in three Community Nodes, one Local Node, the Mixed Corridors and in smaller scale mixed use developments in the medium and low density residential areas. Based on the anticipated retail/service space demands, the consulting team recommends, as a preliminary distribution, maintaining the four nodes planned in the CPDP. However, the team’s preliminary recommendations suggest the node along Taunton Road should be larger than the other tree nodes and contain the larger box retailers including a department store and potentially a home improvement centre and Canadian tire with total retail and service commercial space in the range of 500,000 to 650,000 square feet with each of the other three nodes providing for a food store and retail and service space totaling approximately 250,000 square feet each. The remaining space should be distributed to the mixed corridors and to the low and medium density areas set out in the CPDP.

Exhibit 5 : Additional Service Space Demand 2031

Pickering Including Seaton SeatonPopulation Increase 2009/2031 132,720 70,000

Space Total TotalPer Capita Space Market Warranted Space Market Warranted

Service Category: Sq.Ft Square Feet Share Space Square Feet Share Space

Eating and Drinking 4.00 530,880 100.0% 530,880 280,000 65.0% 182,000

Personal 1.00 132,720 100.0% 132,720 70,000 85.0% 59,500

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 1.00 132,720 100.0% 132,720 70,000 50.0% 35,000

Medical/Dental/Health Services 1.50 199,080 100.0% 199,080 105,000 35.0% 36,750

Business 1.50 199,080 100.0% 199,080 105,000 35.0% 36,750

Entertainment 2.00 265,440 100.0% 265,440 140,000 25.0% 35,000

Other Services 5.00 663,600 100.0% 663,600 350,000 50.0% 175,000

TOTAL SERVICE SPACE DEMAND 16.00 2,123,520 2,123,520 1,120,000 560,000Source: RDA estimates.

Exhibit 6 : Summary Additional Retail/Service Space Demands 2031

SUMMARY OF RETAIL SPACE DEMAND - 2031

Retail Category Square FeetPickering SeatonIncluding

Seaton

Department Store 407,228 149,171

Other General Merchandise 215,007 121,587

Building and Outdoor Home Supply Stores 376,525 136,476

Pharmacies and Personl Care Stores 169,040 81,798

Home Furnishings and Furniture Stores 489,415 132,130

Other Non Food Store Retail 608,679 228,067

Supermarket 476,276 202,124

Specialty Food Store 141,102 65,069

Warehouse Membership Club 135,431 0

Liquoor Beer Wine 94,810 50,244TOTAL RETAIL SPACE DEMAND 3,113,512 1,166,666

SUMMARY OF SERVICE SPACE DEMAND - 2031Service Category Square Feet

Pickering SeatonIncluding

Seaton

Eating and Drinking 530,880 182,000

Personal 132,720 59,500

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 132,720 35,000

Medical/Dental/Health Services 199,080 36,750

Business 199,080 36,750

Entertainment 265,440 35,000

Other Services 663,600 175,000

TOTAL SERVICE SPACE DEMAND 2,123,520 560,000

SUMMARY RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE DEMAND 2031Square Feet

Pickering SeatonIncluding

Seaton

Retail Space 3,113,512 1,166,666

Service Space 2,123,520 560,000

TOTAL RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE 5,237,032 1,726,666Source: Exhibits 4 and 5


As the forecasts of retail and service commercial space are tied to the anticipated population in Seaton, the actual provision of retail and service commercial space will need to be phased in line with population growth. This phasing will need to ensure both minimal impacts on existing commercial nodes in the City as well as early provision of retail services to serve the new residents of Seaton. The next step in the neighbourhood planning process will be to finalize this preliminary distribution through detailed neighbourhood plan polices and land use schedules. The neighbourhood plans will detail the policy intent for each of the designations including the permitted retail and service commercial uses, the anticipated quantum of retail and service space permitted and design policies to guide the form and integration of the retail and mixed use areas.

seaton neighbourhood planning

Documents