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Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast August 1, 2013

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Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast . August 1, 2013. Forward-Looking Statements . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

Second Quarter 2013Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

August 1, 2013

Page 2: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, MPC's expectations, estimates and projections concerning MPC business and operations. You can identify forward-looking statements by words such as "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "project," "could," "may," "should," "would," "will" or other similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond MPC’s control and are difficult to predict. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include: volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; the availability and pricing of crude oil and other feedstocks; slower growth in domestic and Canadian crude supply; completion of pipeline capacity to areas outside the U.S. Midwest; consumer demand for refined products; transportation logistics; the reliability of processing units and other equipment; our ability to successfully implement growth opportunities; impacts from our repurchases of shares of MPC common stock under our share repurchase authorization, including the timing and amounts of any common stock repurchases; state and federal environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations, including the cost of compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard; other risk factors inherent to our industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPC's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"). In addition, the forward-looking statements included herein could be affected by general domestic and international economic and political conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed here or in MPC's Form 10-K could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Copies of MPC's Form 10-K are available on the SEC website, MPC’s website at http://ir.marathonpetroleum.com or by contacting MPC's Investor Relations Office.

Other Information

EBITDA, cash provided from operations before changes in working capital, adjusted earnings and free cash flow are non-GAAP financial measures provided in this presentation. EBITDA, cash provided from operations before changes in working capital, adjusted earnings and free cash flow reconciliations to the nearest GAAP financial measures are included in the Appendix to this presentation. EBITDA, cash provided from operations before changes in working capital, adjusted earnings and free cash flow are not defined by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income attributable to MPC, net cash provided by (used in) operating, investing and financing activities or other financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Page 3: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Highlights

Achieved strong operating performance Delivered strong Speedway segment performance Impacted by changing market conditions

Weaker USGC fundamentals

Significant volatility in Chicago market

Rapid escalation in price of RINs

Returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders Announced a 20% increase in dividend to $0.42 per share

Page 4: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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2Q 2013 Earnings*

Adjusted Earnings Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share

2012 2013$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1.70 2.17

2.53 1.95

3.31

2.26

$/Sh

are

2Q 2013 2Q 2012

Earnings $593 MM $814 MM

Adjusted Earnings $632 MM $867 MM

Earnings per Diluted Share $1.83 $2.38

Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share $1.95 $2.53

2012 2013$0

$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000

596 725

867 632

1,129

760

Mill

ions

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q*References to Earnings refer to Net Income attributable to MPC

3,352 9.79

Page 5: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Adjusted Earnings*2Q 2013 vs. 2Q 2012 Variance Analysis

2Q 2012 Refining &Marketing

Speedway PipelineTransportation

IncomeTaxes

NoncontrollingInterests

2Q 2013$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000867 (422)

16 8

169 (6) 632

Mill

ions

*References to Earnings refer to Net Income attributable to MPC

Page 6: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Refining & Marketing Segment Income2Q 2013 vs. 2Q 2012 Variance Analysis

2Q 2012 *LLS6-3-2-1Crack

*Sweet/Sour Diff.

*LLS /WTISpread

*LLS Prompt vs. Delivered

*Market Structure

Direct Operating

Costs

Other Gross

Margin

Other 2Q 2013$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1,325 (313)

640 (117)(101) (117)

(6) (381)

(27) 903

Mill

ions

*Based on market indicators using actual volumes

Page 7: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Speedway Segment Income2Q 2013 vs. 2Q 2012 Variance Analysis

2Q 2012 Light Product Gross Margin

Merchandise Gross Margin

Other 2Q 2013$95

$100

$105

$110

$115

$120

$125

$130

107 12

9(5)

123

Mill

ions

Page 8: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Pipeline Transportation Segment Income2Q 2013 vs. 2Q 2012 Variance Analysis

2Q 2012 Trans.Revenue

Depreciation OperatingExpenses

2Q 2013$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

50

28(6)

(14)

58

Mill

ions

Page 9: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Total Company Cash Flow2Q 2013

3/31/13Cash

Balance

Operating Cash Flow

before Working Capital

Working Capital

Cash CapitalExpendituresand Acquisi-

tions

DividendsPaid

ShareRepurchases

Other 6/30/13Cash

Balance

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

4,737

859 (1,295)

(251)(113) (882)

14 3,069

Mill

ions

Page 10: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Select Balance Sheet/Cash Flow Data($MM) 2013 2013 2012 2012

2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q

As of quarter ended:

Cash and cash equivalents 3,069 4,737 4,860 3,387

Total debt 3,410 3,416 3,361 3,349

Equity 12,197 12,412 12,105 11,467

Debt-to-total-capital ratio 22% 22% 22% 23%

Last Twelve Months (LTM) EBITDA 6,318 6,599 6,342 4,942

Debt to LTM EBITDA 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x

Quarter to date:

Cash provided by (used in) operations (436) 2,079 2,043 1,833

Cash provided by operations before changes in working capital 859 1,046 1,124 1,320

Page 11: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Focused Return of Capital to Shareholders

LTM Ended 6/30/13$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$2,700

$542

$2,277 Dividends and share re-purchases*

Change in cash and all other

Cash capital expenditures and acquisitions

Mill

ions

* $464 MM dividends plus $1,813 MM share repurchases** Cash flow provided by operations less cash capital expenditures and acquisitions

~81% of Free Cash

Flow**Free CashFlow**$2,819

Net cash provided by operations$5,519

Page 12: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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3Q 2013 OutlookProjected3Q 2013 3Q 2012

Crude throughput 1.65 MMBD 1.19 MMBD

Total throughput 1.85 MMBD 1.35 MMBD

Percent of WTI-priced crude 22% 26%

Refinery direct operating costs in Refining & Marketing gross margin*:

Turnaround and major maintenance $1.15 $1.18

Depreciation & amortization 1.30 1.44

Other manufacturing cost** 4.15 3.16

Total $6.60 $5.78

Corporate and other unallocated items $75 million $74 million

* Per barrel of total throughput

** Includes utilities, labor, routine maintenance and other operating costs

Page 13: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

Appendix

Page 14: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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ReconciliationEarnings to Adjusted Earnings*

($MM) 2012 20131Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

Earnings 596 814 1,224 755 725 593

Pension settlement expenses** 53 22 5 39

MN asset sale settlement gain** (117)

Adjusted Earnings 596 867 1,129 760 725 632

*References to Earnings refer to Net Income attributable to MPC**Net of tax

Page 15: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Reconciliation

($MM) 2012 2013(Quarter to date) 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities 1,833 2,043 2,079 (436)

Additions to property, plant and equipment (331) (403) (195) (229)

Acquisitions* (27) - (1,493) (22)

Free cash flow 1,475 1,640 391 (687)

Last twelve months free cash flow 2,819

Free Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided from Operations

*Represents cash paid

Page 16: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Income($MM unless otherwise noted) 2012 2013

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

Refining & Marketing segment incomeSpeedway segment incomePipeline Transportation segment income

943

50

42

1,325

107

50

1,691

76

52

1,139

77

72

1,105

67

51

903

123

58

Corporate and other unallocated items (79) (92) (74) (91) (67) (64)

Pension settlement expenses - (83) (33) (8) - (60)

MN asset sale settlement gain - - 183 - - -

Income from operations 956

(22)

1,307

(17)

1,895

(25)

1,189

(45)

1,156

(48)

960

(45)Net interest and other financing income (costs)

Income before income taxes 934 1,290 1,870 1,144 1,108 915

Income tax provision 338 476 646 385 378 316

Net income 596 814 1,224 759 730 599

Less net income attributable to noncontrolling interests - - - 4 5 6

Net income attributable to MPC 596 814 1,224 755 725 593

Effective tax rate 36% 37% 35% 34% 34% 35%

Page 17: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income (Loss) Attributable to MPC

($MM) 2011 2012 20134Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

Net Income (Loss) attributable to MPC (75) 596 814 1,224 755 725 593

Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (22) (22) (17) (25) (45) (48) (45)

Add: Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests - - - - 4 5 6

Add: Provision (benefit) for income taxes (105) 338 476 646 385 378 316

Add: Depreciation and amortization 230 230 236 246 283 287 302

EBITDA 72 1,186 1,543 2,141 1,472 1,443 1,262

Last Twelve Months EBITDA 4,942 6,342 6,599 6,318

Page 18: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Cash Provided from Operations Before Changes in Working Capital Reconciliation to Cash Provided by (Used in) Operations

($MM) 2012 2013

(Quarter to date) 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q

Net cash provided by (used in) operations 1,833 2,043 2,079 (436)

Less changes in working capital:

Changes in current receivables (393) 491 (884) (655)

Changes in inventories 142 440 (517) 62

Changes in current accounts payable and accrued liabilities 862 (63) 2,491 (702)

Changes in the fair value of derivative instruments (98) 51 (57) --

Total changes in working capital 513 919 1,033 (1,295)

Cash provided from operations before changes in working capital 1,320 1,124 1,046 859

Page 19: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Capital Expenditures & Investments*

($MM) 2013 Budget 2Q 2013 2013 YTD

Refining & Marketing 1,016 134 257

Speedway 255 76 112

Pipeline Transportation 184 41 61

Corporate and Other 160 28 52

Subtotal 1,615 279 482

Capitalized Interest 43 4 8

Total Capital Expenditures & Investments 1,658 283 490

*Excludes $1.37 billion in capital expenditures and investments attributable to the acquisition of the Galveston Bay refinery and related assets

Page 20: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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MPC Crude Slate

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

21 23 25 26 27 29 30 28 26 25 22 22

4856 52 52 49 48 45 50 52 55

52 48

3121 23 22 24 23 25 22 22 20 26 30

Other Sweet

Other Sour

WTI Based

Page 21: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast

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Refining & Marketing Indicative Gross Margin – 2Q 2013

*Based on market indicators using actual volumes

*LLS6-3-2-1 Crack

*Sweet/Sour Diff.

*LLS/WTISpread

*LLSPrompt vs. Delivered

*MarketStructure

DirectOperating

Costs

OtherGross

Margin

R&MGross

Margin

Other R&MSegmentIncome

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1,671

506

364 (179)43 (1,030)

(180)1,195 (292)

903Mill

ions

Page 22: Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast