secondary cities in low-income asia: demography and risk€¦ · secondary cities in low-income...

Secondary Cities in Low-Income Asia:Demography and Risk

Mark R. Montgomery

Stony Brook University and Population Council, [email protected]

June 14, 2016

Montgomery Secondary June 14, 2016 1 / 23

[email protected]

1 Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia

2 Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India

3 Conclusions


Urban Challenges in the 21st Century:

Urbanization in Poor Countries Large increases in world population lie ahead; almost allgrowth to occur in the cities and towns of poor countries. Today’surban dwellers, and those of the future, will live mainly in small andmedium-sized cities.

Some small municipalities are located in large urban agglomerations;others are disconnected from national networks and economic growth.

Decentralization National governments transferring responsibilities into hands of stateand municipal governments, which typically lack resources and allmanner of bureaucratic expertise.

Extreme-event risks As global warming takes hold, the consequences (floods, droughts)will be borne by city and town dwellers as well as rural villagers. Yetnational climate adaptation plans typically ignore urban areas of all sizesand the urban poor.

Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework How will urban progress bemeasured and monitored—especially outside capitals and large cities?


New National Governmental Systems: Decentralization

National governments are passing to lower-level tiers of governmentimportant functions, responsibilities, and (sometimes) revenue-raisingauthority and inter-governmental transfers.

Powerful notion of moving government “closer to the people,” intheory improving responsiveness

Municipal and “state” governments increasingly important in settingpolicies and programs — but often poorly resourced and under-staffed

Small and intermediate-size cities: thinner revenue bases, less abilityto impose growth-elastic taxes, more dependent on transfers


Data and Governance in Poor Countries

Almost all poor countries collect spatially-specific population andsocioeconomic data via population censuses. But few poor countriessystematically analyze and distribute spatially-specific data to theirlocal governments and civil society

Smaller-city governments especially handicapped by the lack of basicdata for planning and at-risk estimation

Latin American countries the prominent exception: Detailed, easilyaccessible data seen as essential to good governance. Mexico, Brazil,Uruguay and other examples.

This view gaining adherents: India after its 2011 census making majorefforts to put settlement-specific data on the web—as we willillustrate.


Discussion Draws From:

Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, U.S. NationalResearch Council, Cities Transformed: DemographicChange and Its Implications in the Developing World.Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2003

and from on-going NSF-funded research with Deborah Balk, BryanO’Neill, Bryan Jones, Leiwen Jiang and others comparing urbanization inMexico, India, and the United States.


Urban Demography of Low- andMiddle-Income Asia

Urban Demography of Low- and Middle-Income Asia

The Urban Evidence BaseToo dependent on the UN and national-level statistics

The Sustainable Development Goals will be monitored sub-nationally

Environmental and climate risks vary enormously within countries

But settlement-specific data on populations at risk seldom madeavailable in any accessible form

The demographic basics—fertility, mortality, health, age structure,education—are not available or not tabulated at the level of cities, tosay nothing of neighborhoods within cities

But census data exist at these levels—they have been left unexploitedin the vast majority of poor countries.



Agglomerations of 300,000+ Population in Developing AsiaUN Population Division (2014), population given in thousands

Agglomerations of 300,000+ in 2015

● ●●

●● ●

●

●

●

●●●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●●●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●● ●●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●●●

●

●

●●

●

●●●

●●●●

●●●

●

●

●

●●

●

● ●

●●●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

● ●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●●●

●

●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●

●●●

●

●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

3005001000250050001000015000



Asian Urban Population by Agglomeration Size: SmallerPlaces Matter!

11.90%

9.15%

21.20%

10.16%6.24%

41.37%

25

50

75

0/100

AgglomerationSize

>10m

5-10m

1-5m

500k-1m

300k-500k

<300k



UN Projections Sensible? How to Interpret the Meaning of“Agglomeration”?

Central Asia Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia

Southern Asia Western Asia

0

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100

1950

1975

2000

2030

1950

1975

2000

2030

Year

Per

cent

age

of T

otal

Urb

an P

opul

atio

n

Agglomeration Size

<300k

300k-500k

500k-1m

1-5m

5-10m

>10m



Smaller Cities and Towns Near JakartaNight-time lights imagery—proxy for urban land cover/economic activity

Longitude

Latit

ude

7°S

6.5°S

6°S

106°E 106.5°E 107°E 107.5°E

95 96 97 98 99 99.5 100



Large and Small Cities in Punjab Province, PakistanNight-time lights and Google Earth geo-locating—and NSO population counts

Longitude

Latit

ude

28°N

29°N

30°N

31°N

32°N

33°N

70°E 71°E 72°E 73°E 74°E 75°E

●●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

95 96 97 98 99 99.5 100


Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks:India

Smaller Cities and Environmental Risks: India

Number of Urban Places, by City/Town Population SizeSettlement-level population data, all municipalities and census towns!

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2600

2800

3000

3200

4600

4800

5 Mill.+

0 2000 4000 6000Number of Cities and Towns (2011)

City

Siz

e C

lass

(00

0s)



Distribution of Population, by City Size

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2600

2800

3000

3200

4600

4800

5 Mill.+

0 30000 60000 90000Total Population in Size Class (000s)

City

Siz

e C

lass

(000

s)



Number of Children under 6, by City/Town Size

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2600

2800

3000

3200

4600

4800

5 Mill.+

0 5000 10000Number of Children Under 6 (000s)

City

Siz

e C

lass

(00

0s)



Number of Illiterate Women, by City/Town Size

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2600

2800

3000

3200

4600

4800

5 Mill.+

0 5000 10000 15000Number of Illiterate Women (000s)

City

Siz

e C

lass

(00

0s)



Tamil Nadu: Big Cities Only

Chennai

Salem(M.Corp)

Coimbatore (M Corp)(Part)Tiruchirappalli(M.Corp)(Part)

Madurai(M Corp)



Tamil Nadu: All Urban Settlements by Population Size

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

100-500K

500K+



Urban Dwellers at Risk: Low-Elevation Coastal Zone

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

100-500K

500K+



Cyclone Risks: Urban Settlements in the Pathway

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00


Conclusions

Conclusions: To Highlight Smaller Cities and Towns,Emphasize the Powerful SDG theme of “InclusiveDevelopment”

Help to disaggregate and map population census and related data, tohighlight status of small urban places. Technical barriers can beovercome, with international assistance

Focus attention on the environmental risks settlements are facingacross the size spectrum

Where possible, disaggregate socioeconomic data within cities

Use satellite imagery—night-time lights, LandSat, new sensors—tomonitor change in urban landcover between population censuses


secondary cities in low-income asia: demography and risk€¦ · secondary cities in low-income...

Documents