secondinformatiorevolution davenport

8/13/2019 SecondInformatioRevolution Davenport

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T h e S e c o n dn f o r m a t i o n

R e v o l u t i o nT h o m a s H D a v e n p o r tUniversity of Tex as at Austin

b s t r a c tT h i s a r t i c l e d e s c r i b e s a f u t u r e e n v i r o n m e n t f o ri n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s i n w h i c h i n f o r m a t i o n r e -p l a c e s t e c h n o l o g y a s t h e p r i m a r y f o c u s o f f i rm se f fo r ts . T h e s c e n a r i o is p r o v o k e d b y a n a c a -dem i c r es ea r c h f i nd i ng , and t hus t he a r t i c l e a l s op o i n t s t o a w a y i n w h i c h I S r e s e a r c h e r s m i g h th a v e a g r e a t e r i m p a c t o n p r a c ti c e . T h e co n t r i-b u t i o n o f t h e I T in d u s t r y t o t h e w o r l d e c o n o m y i sa l s o a f oc us o f t h is v i s ion , i n t ha t de c r ea s ed I Ts a l es c o n t r i bu t e t o a g l oba l r ec es s i on .I n t r o d u c t i o nT o s o m e , it r e p r e s e n t e d a w o r l d w i d e c a t a c l y s m ;t o o t h e r s i t h a d o n l y m o d e r a t e l y n e g a t i v e i m -p l i ca t ions . But a lm os t a l l t ho se invo lved - ag r o u p t h a t e v e n t u a l l y i n c l u d e d b u s i n e s s p e o p l ein m o s t in d u s t ri a li z e d n a t io n s - e v e n t u a l l y c a m et o a d m i t t h a t t h e I T R e c e s s i o n o f 1 9 9 8 h a d m a n yl o n g - t e r m p o s i t i v e o u t c o m e s f o r t h e w o r l de c o n o m y . T h e s e b e n e f ic i al c h a n g e s w e r ee v e n t u a ll y k n o w n a s T h e S e c o n d I n fo r m a t io nR e v o l u t i o n ; s o m e c a l l e d it t h e r e a l in f o r m a t i o nr e v o l u t io n , i m p l y in g t h a t t h e f ir s t o n e h a dp r i m a r il y b e e n a b o u t t e c h n o l o g y r a t h e r t h a nin fo rmat ion .T r o u b l e o n t h e H o r i zo nT h e p r o b l e m h a d b e e n b r e w i n g f o r a c o u p l e o fy e a r s . T h e I T i n d u s tr y - s e m i c o n d u c t o r , c o m p u -t er , n e t w o r k i n g , a n d s o f t w a r e f ir m s - h a d b e e np r o d u c i n g h i g h e r - c a p a c i ty p r o d u c t s f o r d e c a d e s .L i k e t h e a u t o m o b i l e f i r m s o f t h e 1 9 6 0 s , e a c hy e a r t h e v e n d o r s ' p r o d u c t s w e r e t h e e q u i v a l e n to f l o n g e r , l o w e r , w i d e r , w i t h e v e n m o r e h o r s e -p o w e r . I n 1 9 9 8 I n t e l' s l a t e s t p r o c e s s o r h a de i g h t m i l l i o n t r a n s i s t o r s , a n d w a s s u p p o s e d l y1 5 0 0 t im e s m o r e p o w e r f u l t h a n t h e o r ig i n a l I BMPC . M i c r o s o f t ' s W i n d o w s 9 8 a l l o w e d fi le n a m e so f 1 0 2 4 c h a r a c t e r s a n d l e t 6 4 p r o g r a m s r u n c o n -c u r r e n tl y in 6 4 m e g a b y t e s o f m a i n m e m o r y . T h es a m e f ir m ' s O f fi ce 9 8 w o r d p r o c e s s i n g p r o g r a ma l l o w e d s i m u l t a n e o u s s p e l l i n g , g r a m m a r , r e a d -ab i l i t y , t ypograph ic , and t ime- to -pr in t check ing .T h e r e w e r e s o m a n y f u n c t i o n a l i c o n s o n t h ew o r d p r o c e s s i n g s c r e e n t h a t l i t t l e r o o m w a s l e f tto d i sp lay any tex t .A t t h e e n t e r p r i s e a p p l i c a t i o n s l e v e l , m a n yc o m p a n i e s w e r e i n s ta l li n g s o - c a ll e d E n t e r p r i s e

T h e D A T A B A S E f o r A d v a n c e s in I n fo r m a t io n S y s t e m s - F a ll 1 9 9 6 ( V o l. 2 7 , N o . 4 ) 8 5


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R e s o u r c e P l a n n in g p a c k a g e s , b u t t h e r es e e m e d t o b e fe w s u c c e s s s to r ie s . S A P A G , t h el ead i ng vendo r o f such packages , r e l eased i t sR / 4 sys t em , w h i ch bas i ca l l y i nc l uded eve r y app -l i ca t ion an organ iza t ion cou ld want , a l l i n tegra tedw i t h a c o m m o n o b j e c t- o r ie n t e d d a t a b a s e . T h ep r o b l e m w a s t h a t f e w i f a n y c u s t o m e r s h a d y e tcom p l e t ed t he i r i m p l em en t a t i ons o f t he R / 3p a c k a g e . A t t h e s a m e tim e , m a n y c o m p a n i e s int he m i dd l e and l a t e 1990s w e r e com p l e t i ng t he i rm ov es to a c l i en t / se r ve r a r ch i t ec t u r e . M a ny hadf o u n d , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e s u p p o s e d l y c h e a p e ra n d m o r e p o w e r f u l c l i e n t / s e r v e r s y s t e m s w e r eac t ua l l y m o r e expe ns i ve t o bu i ld , m o r e d i f fi cu lt t om a i n t a in , and m or e p r one t o f a il u r e . C o m p anyI T m anage r s f e l t t ha t t hey had t o r ep l ace com -pu t e r s and ne t w o r ks , and i ns t a ll new ve r s i ons o fso f t w a r e , on a con t i nu ous bas i s . A t bo t h t he P Cand t he en t e r p r i se l eve l , com pan i es w e r e be -g i nn i ng t o f ee l t ha t t hey w e r e on an I T t r eadm i l l ,m o v i n g f a s t e r a n d f a s t e r w i t h n o o f f s w i t c h .A s ea r l y as 1996 , t he r e w e r e i nd i ca t i ons o f asubs t an t i a l p r ob l em i n t he co r po r a t e com pu t i ngw o r l d . A s t u d y o f c o r p o r a t e P C u s e f o u n d th a tt h e a v e r a g e P C c o s t m o r e t h a n $ 1 3 , 0 0 0 p e r y e a rt o u s e a n d s u p p o r t. O v e r 2 0 p e r c e n t o f t h ea v e r a g e P C u s e r ' s t i m e a t t h e c o m p u t e r w a sspe n t f u t z ing , o r a t t em p t i ng t o m a ke t hem a c h i n e c o o p e r a t e w i t h t h e u s e r ' s d e s i r e s .T h e r e w e r e m u t t e r i n g s a b o u t l o w e r e d p r o d u c -t iv it y. M o r e and m o r e use r s w e r e beg i nn i ng tocom p l a i n t ha t t hey go t t oo m uch e l ec t r on i c m a i l ,vo i ce m a i l , f axes , and com pu t e r - o r i g i na t ed pape rd o c u m e n t s .

c a d e m i c s C r e a t e a C r i s isI n m i d - 1998 , how eve r , cam e t he p r ec i p i t a t i ngeven t f o r t he r ecess i on . A conso r t i um o f l ead i ngI T a c a d e m i c s f r o m v a r i o u s u n i v e rs i ti e s h a d b e e nf o r m ed i n l a t e 1996 t o s t udy t he r e l a t i onsh i p be t -w e e n I T a n d b u s i n e s s s u c c e s s o n m u l t i p l elevels . In Apr i l 1998, the con sor t ium re lea sed i t sp r e l i m i na r y r epo r t t o t he com pan i es t ha t hads p o n s o r e d th e s tu d y . A l t h o u g h th e r e p o r t w a sos t ens i b l y p r op r i e t a r y t o thos e f ir m s , i t w a squ i ck l y l eaked t o t he bus i ness p r ess , and be -c a m e t h e c o v e r s t o r y f o r t w o b u s i n e s s m a g -az i nes .T h e s t u d y ' s r e s u l t s s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e r e w a s n or e l a t ionsh i p be t w een i nve s t m en t in I T and b us -i ness suc ces s ac r o ss m u l t ip l e i ndus t r ies . C o m -

p a n i e s s p e n d i n g m o r e o n I T d i d n o t p e r f o r mbe t t e r t han t he i r com pe t i t o r s ; f i r m s w i t h m o r eadvanced I T i n f r as t r uc t u r es a l so had no ap -pa r en t com p e t i ti ve advan t age . I nd i v idua l s w i t hm o r e p o w e r f u l p e r s o n a l t e c h n o l o g i e s w e r e n o tj u d g e d b y t h e i r s u p e r v i s o r s o r t h e i r p e e r s t o b em or e p r oduc t i ve w o r ke r s . I n f ac t, m an y suchp o w e r u s e r s w e r e v ie w e d a s s p e n d i n g to om u c h t i m e o n t e c h n o l o g y , a n d n o t e n o u g h o nt h e i r r e a l j o b s . S e n i o r e x e c u t iv e s a t c o m p a n i e sw i t h m o r e p o w e r f u l a n d e x p e n s i v e t e c h n o l o g i e sw e r e l ess sa t i s f ied w i t h t he i r i n f o r m a t ion env i r on -m e n t s in t h e ir fi rm s t h a n t h o s e w h o s p e n t l e s s o nt echno l ogy . W h i l e t hese r esu l t s on l y con f i r m edm a n y m a n a g e r s ' s u s p i c i o n s , t h e y s h o o k t h e I Ti ndus t r y t o i ts co r e .

T h u s b e g a n w h a t c a m e t o b e k n o w n a s t h e f i r s tI T R e c e s s i o n , a n e c o n o m i c d o w n t u r n t h a tl as t ed seve r a l yea r s and a f f ec t ed t he U S , Japan ,and E u r ope . T he f ir s t s i gn o f t he r ecess i onc a m e w h e n t h e s t o c k p r i c e s o f t e c h n o l o g y f i r m s- pa r t i cu l a r l y such t echno l ogy l eade r s as I n t e l ,M i c r oso f t , H ew l e t t - P acka r d , C i sco S ys t em s , andp e r s o n a l c o m p u t e r f i r m s s u c h a s C o m p a q a n dD e l l - p l um m et ed . T he i r sa l es r esu l t s f o r t hes e c o n d q u a r t e r s h o w e d s h a r p d e c l i n e s i n c o r p o r -a t e a n d i n d i v i d u a l p u r c h a s e s o f t e c h n o l o g y .S i n c e I T c o m p a n i e s h a d f u e le d t h e g r o w t h o f th eU S a n d J a p a n e s e e c o n o m i e s o v e r t h e p r e v i o u sd e c a d e , t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' G D P f i g u r e s s h o w e d n og r o w t h i n th e s e c o n d q u a r t e r, a n d e v e n s h r u n k int he t h ir d and f ou r t h qu a r t e r s o f 1998 .T h e I T o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n c o m p a n i e s w e r e a l s os h a k e n b y t h e re s u l ts o f t h e re s e a r c h . M a n yC E O s a n d o t h e r g e n e r a l m a n a g e r s d e c i d e d t oc l ean hous e , acco r d i ng t o p r ess r epo r t s . I ' dn e v e r b e e n c o m f o r t a b l e w i t h t h o s e p e o p l e a n y -w a y , o n e e x e c u t iv e a t a n a u t o m o b i l e f ir ms t a te d . A t l e a s t t w o c o m p a n i e s a s k e d f o r th e r e -s i gna t i ons o f a l l o f t he w o r ke r s i n t he i r I Tf unc t i ons . S eve r a l f ir m s sou gh t ou t sou r c i ngp r o p o s a l s , b u t o t h e r s t h a t h a d a l r e a d y o u t -sou r ced com m en t ed pub l i c l y t ha t , w h i l e t he i r I Ts e r v ic e m i g h t b e s o m e w h a t c h e a p e r , i t w a s n ' tm uch d i f fe r en t f r om be f o r e .

S i l v e r L i n i n g i n t h e C l o u d sW i t h t h i s d r am a t i c t u r nove r i n com pany I T pe r -sonne l began t he f i r s t pos i t i ve i m p l i ca t i ons o f t her e c e s s io n . N e w m a n a g e m e n t t e a m s c a m e i n toI T f u n c ti o n s ; m o s t m a n a g e r s h a d s u b s t a n t ia l

8 6 T h e D A T A B A S E f o r A d v a n c e s in In f o rm a t i o n S y s t e m s - - F a ll 1 9 9 6 (V o l. 2 7 , N o .4 )


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expe r ience in o ther f unc t iona l a reas . La ter re -s ea r c h f ound t ha t t he m os t c om m on bac k g r oundf o r t hes e new in f o r m a t i on m anage r s w as m ar -ke t ing ( c lear ly an in fo rmat ion- in tens ive func t ioni tse l f) . Ma ny o f t hese m ana gers took a f reshlook a t t he func t ion ' s ob jec t ives and orga-n i z a ti ona l s t ruc t u re . B ec aus e k now ledge m an -agem en t w as a popu la r c onc ep t a t t he t im e ,I n fo r m a t i on and K now ledge M an agem en t be -cam e a po pu lar ne w nam e for the func tion .I ndeed , t he c om m on e lem en t am ong m anyc om pan ies ' app r oac hes t o I T w a s an em phas i son in formation ra the r t han techno logy . Put t ingthe '1 ' back in 'IT ' beca me a pop u lar phrase.Thes e r ec ons t i t u t ed i n f o r m a t i on m anagem en tgroups o f ten invo lved combinat ions o f l ib rary ,market research, and communica t ions func t ions .I t was common to under take s tud ies to ident i f yin formation needs - indepe nden t o f t he tech-no logy used to supp ly t he in fo rmation . I ns teado f c r ea t i ng c om p lex da t a m ode ls t ha t no us e r sc ou ld unde r s tand , ana l y s t s s hadow ed w o r k e r sto find out what in fo rmat ion they rea l ly used, a ndhad sess ions w i th groups o f users to ident i f yways in wh ich the i r in fo rmat ion env i ronmentsc ou ld be im p r ov ed . Thes e s es s ions add r es s eda w ide r ange o f i s s ues - no t j us t t ec hno log ies o rau t om a t ed s y s t em s , bu t s uc h t op i c s as how o r -ganizat ional s t ructures, pol i t ics, physical fac i l i tylayouts , and bus iness process des igns got in t hew ay o f ef fect ive informat ion.The IT- led recess ion cont inued fo r severa l years ,l a r ge l y bec aus e m any f i r m s dec ided t ha t t heyw ou ld no t upg r ade t he i r t ec hno logy un les s i ts eem ed abs o lu t e ly nec es s a r y . S om e c om -pan ies dev e loped a c ons ens us t ha t t hey w ou ldm a k e do w i t h the i r ex i st ing t ec hno logy ba s e fo rf ive years . As one prominen t CE O noted,We' re go ing to spend f ive years ca tch ing upw i t h t he t ec hno logy w e a l r eady hav e . G iv en thelack o f dem and, ma ny vend ors cou ldn ' t a f f o rd tomain ta in the to r r id pace o f new produc t deve lop-ment t hey had main ta ined before the recess ion .S om e c om pu t e r i ndus t r y ex ec u t i v es adm i t t edpr iva te ly t ha t t hey had wondered why the i rc us t om er s pu t up w i t h t w o - y ea r p r oduc t ob -sole sce nce cycles. Intel, for exa mp le, let f iveyears lapse between the in t roduc t ions o f i t s P7and P8 mic roprocessor arch i tec tures .The new p r oduc t s t ha t d i d em er ge f r om t he I Tindus t ry had a d i f f e rent f lavor t han those pre-

va len t be fore the recess ion . Ven dors had got tent he m es s age : t he dom inan t m a r k e t i ng em phas i sby the yea r 200 0 wa s on prac tical it y , cos treduct ion, and rel iabi l ity , ra the r than inc reas edp o w e r a n d s p e e d . C o m p u t e r c o m p a n i e ss t ressed the i r long me an- t ime be fore fa i lu recyc les and ea se o f ins tal la t ion and m ain tenance.Netw ork vendors focused o n re liab il it y and easeo f ne t w o r k m anag em en t . S o f t w a r e v endo r sin t r oduc ed s l im m ed- dow n v e r s ions o f popu la rp r og r am s t ha t m e t t he needs o f t he c om m onus e r r a t he r t han t he m os t s oph i s t i c a t ed c us -tomers .A c a d e m ic s D o c u m e n t th e C h a n g e sA f o l l ow - up s t udy i n t he y ea r 2002 by t he s am egr oup o f ac adem ic rese rchers w h o s e w o r k h a dt r iggered the recess ion found in teres t ing andhear ten ing resu l ts . Aga in the focus o f the i r s tudywas the re la t ionsh ip be tween IT and ind iv idua land organ iza t iona l p roduc tiv it y. Econ om is ts hada l ready sugges ted tha t t he produc t iv i t y o f f i rmshad begun to inc rease subs tant ia l ly in 1999.The I T c demics dem ons t r a t ed c onv inc ing l ytha t i t wa s the cha nge in or ien ta t ion to IT tha t ledto the prod uct iv i ty increas es. Individual usersnow had fami l ia r , re l iab le too ls , and spent muchless t ime t inker ing w i th the i r computers , exp lor -ing new sof tware , and dea l ing w i th techno logyprob lems. I n f ras t ruc ture fa i lu res dec l ined sub-s tant ia l ly ; w i th f ewe r new techno log ies toadd r es s , s om e I T g r oups had w eek s on endw i thout any network or da ta center f a i lu res .S y s t em dev e lopm en t f i na l l y m a t u r ed as a d i s -c ip l ine - la rge ly because programmers f ina l lyhad a s tab le techn ica l env i ronment in wh ich theyc ou ld do the i r w o r k . B ec aus e t he t ec hno logyenv i r onm en t d idn ' t c hange m uc h - and pe r hapsbec aus e dev e lope r s had p r agm a t i c o r i en t a t i onsand bus ines s r a t he r t han t ec hn ic a l b ac k g r ounds- t he idea o f so f tware reuse took o f f in f i rms,even those tha t d id no t employ ob jec t -or ien tedtechno log ies . Som e o f t he most p roduc t ive f irmsev en had l i b r a r i es o f C O B O L m odu les androut ines fo r the purpo se o f reuse.The Rise of AppropriateTechnologyI t t ook aw h i l e f o r the I T m an agem en t i ndus tr y t oadap t t o t he new env i r onm en t ; bu t ev en t ua l l yconsu l tan ts , serv ice prov iders , and the pressc augh t on . In ea r l y 2004, a book w as pub l i s hed

The D A TA B A S E f o r A dv an c es i n I n fo r m a t ion S y s t e m s - Fa ll 1996 ( Vo l. 27 , N o . 4 ) 87


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ca l led Appropr iate Technology. I t descr ibed ex-am ples o f com pan ies tha t had pro fi ted th roughthe use o f convent iona l , t es ted techn o log ies fo rtheir IT arch i tecture s and appl icat ions. On e f irm,fo r example , had bu i l t a company-w ide inventorylevel a le r t sys tem us ing s imple e -m aU tech-no logy . The us e o f W eb b r ow s e r s ( by 2004 ,these were cons idered o ld ha t ) f o r a l l in fo rmat ioninter faces had great ly s impl i fied repor t ings y s t em s i n ano t he r c om pan y . The au t ho r a l s odes c r i bed how one o f t he m os t s uc c es s f u lv i rt ua l c om pa n ies , w i t h its em p loy ees w o r k ingf r om t he i r hom es a l l a r ound t he w o r l d , had dev e -loped h igh ly soph is t ica ted in format ion networksus ing by - now - obs o le t e P en t i um p r oc es s o r c om -puters . Yo u don ' t need a Fer rar i t o d r ive to t heg r oc e r y s to r e , t he c om pany ' s C E O s t a t ed .P rov iders o f IT educat ion , once or ien ted to t ra in -ing peop le on how to use the la tes t genera t ion o fhardware and so f tware too ls , were fo rced tocha nge focus . I ns tead o f t each ing abo ut t he useo f t ec hno logy , new c ou r s es w e r e dev e loped t ha tf oc us ed on t he effect ive use of informat ion.M a n a g e r s a n d w o r k e r s w e r e t a u g h t h o w t oidenti fy t he i r ow n in format ion needs , how toshare in fo rmat ion e f fec t ive ly w i th o thers , andhow t o m ak e i n fo r m a t i on -bas ed dec i s ions .Un ivers i t ies deve loped course o f fe r ings invo lv ingho w to search fo r in fo rmat ion and use i te f fec tive ly , cons is ten t w i th a new ly po pu larem pha s is on l if e long learn ing . A popu lar a r t ic lein Harvard Bus iness Rev iew des c r i bed t w en t ywa ys to add va lue to in fo rmat ion . Th is ar tic lew as w e l l r ec e i ved by m any m idd le m a nage r s ,w hos e r ank s had s w e l l ed aga in a f t e r r educ t i onsin t he 1990s . The m idd le m an agem en t r o le hadcom e to be v iewe d as la rge ly involv ing thecreat ion o f e f f ec tive in fo rmat ion en v i ronme nts fo rbus iness un i t s and func tions. I ns tead o f s imp lypass ing in format ion up and down the h ie rarchy ,m idd le m anage r s w e r e ev a lua t ed on ho w theyadded va lue to in fo rmat ion by synthes iz ing ,edi t ing, and analyz ing i t .E v en i n f o r m a t i on p r ov ide r c om pan ies w e r ea f f ec t ed by t he c hange i n t he I T m anagem en tc l imate . I n t he fas t - chang ing techno log y en-v i r onm en t s o f t he 1980s and 1990s, m uc h o fthe i r energ ies had gone in to c reat ing access tot he i r in f o rm a t i on t h r ough new t ec hno log ies andin ter faces - e .g ., P C 's and the In ternet - andcreat ing c l ien t / server ne tworks fo r t he i r in te rna lIT arch i tec tures . Wi th the decrea s ing pace o f

t ec hn i c a l c hange i n t he ea r l y pa r t o f t he newc en t u r y , t hes e c om pan ies began t o f oc us onhow bet te r t o package, market , and se l l t he i rin fo rmation . Ne w in format ion produ c ts and ser -v ices prol iferated, f rom tradi t iona l and ne wprov iders. Even record com panies , wh ich hadput much o f t he i r e f f o r t s in to such unsuccess fu lt echn ica l de l ivery veh ic les as d ig i t a l casset tesand min i -d isks , re turned to the i r mus ic and iden-t i f ied new record ing s tars to reverse a decade-long decl ine.Ne w f inanc ia l in fo rmat ion serv ices abou nded .Banks , f o r example , d iscovered tha t t hey knewenough about t he i r cus tomers ' f inanc ia l p ro f i lesto o f fe r t hem comprehens ive f inanc ia l p lann ings e r v i c es - w i t hou t t he need f o r t im e - c ons um ingda t a en t r y by t he c us t om er . C r ed i t c a r d c om -pan ies o f f e r ed t he i r c us t om er s t ax p r epa r a t i ons e r v ic es - aga in w i t h no c us t om er da t a en t r y , aslong as k ey pay m en t s w e r e m ade by c r ed i t c a r d .F inanc ia l f raud dec l ined subs tant ia l ly ; companieshad automated f raud detec t ion before the tu rn o ft he c en t u r y and f ound t ha t c om pu t e r s c ou ld no tde t ec t f raud as w e l l as hum ans . B u t new fr audde t ec t i on app r oac hes r e l i ed on bo t h hum an andcom puter -bas ed sc reen ing. S im i la r ly , t hepat te rn recogn i t ion and data m in ingt ec hno log ies be ing ex p lo r ed by m any f i rm s i n t hela te 1990s had not p roven to be as success fu l asin t e l l i gen t hum ans and c om pu t e r s w o r k ing i nconcer t .W o r k H a b i t a n d L i fe s t y le h a n g e sW hen c om pan ies and o r gan i z a t i ons j um ped o f ft he techno logy t readmi l l , ind iv idua l workers a lsobegan t o c hange t he i r behav io r s w i t h r ega r d t oin format ion and techn o logy . By the la te 1990s ,m any w o r k e r s had f e lt tha t t ec hno logy had l ed t oa subs tant ia l lengthen ing o f t he i r work hours .Even in t he i r so-ca l led hom e l ives , wo rkerswere answer ing e-mai l , ca tch ing up on vo icemai l, and hav ing g loba l v ideoc onferen ces a t a l lhours o f t he n igh t . Wi th ce l lu la r phones , p agers ,and l ap t op c om pu t e r s , v ac a t ions now m ean t j us tano t he r p lac e t o do w o r k . D i v o r c e r a tes z oom edas f am i l y m em ber s bec am e m or e s t r es s ed w i t hles s t im e t o w o r k ou t p r ob lem s .Aga in , a book c rys ta l l i zed the mount ing d is -sa t is fac t ion w i th the techno logy-enab led l i f e .Ca l led Take Control of Your Informat ion Dest iny

88 The D A TA B A S E fo r A dv anc es i n In f o rm a t i on S y s t e m s - - Fa ll 1996 (V o l. 27 , N o .4 )


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t h e 2 0 0 4 b o o k c o u n s e l e d w o r k e r s t o s h u t o f fe l ec t r on i c dev i c es and pay a t t en t i on t o t he i rs pous es , c h i l d r en , and hobb i es w h i l e a t hom e .C o m p a n i e s a d o p t e d s o m e o f t h e s e r e c o m -m enda t i ons as po l i c i es a f t e r r ea l i z i ng t ha t anyr e a s o n a b l e w o r k /l if e b a l a n c e h a d b e e n d e -s t ro y e d . A p r o m i n e n t s t u d y in 2 0 0 3 b y e d u -c a t i ona l r es ea r c h e r s f ound t ha t c h i ld r en w h os pe n t s i gn i f ic an t t im e us i ng m u l t i m ed i a de v i c eshad less c rea t i ve , v i vid imag ina t ions . The reaf te r ,s a l e s o f v i d e o g a m e s a n d e d u c a t i o n a l s o f t w a r ebegan t o dec l i ne , and t hos e p r og r am s t ha t s t i l lt h r i v ed enc ou r aged c h i l d r en t o us e t he i r i m ag i n -a t i v e pow e r s .T h e s e c h a n g e s i n i n fo r m a t io n b e h a v i o r s a l s o e x -t ended i n to t he w o r k env i r onm en t . I n f o r m a t ionov e r l oad had bec om e a c r i t i c a l p r ob l em ; m anyw o r k e r s r e c e i ve d o v e r 1 0 0 m e s s a g e s p e r d a y ,and t he lev e l o f c om m un i c a t i ons f r om o t he rm e d i a h a d n o t d e c l in e d . F o r d e c a d e s t e c h -no l og i s t s had p r ed i c t ed t ha t au t om a t ed f i l t e r s o re l ec t r on i c agen t s w ou l d dea l w i t h t he i n f o r m a t i onov e r l oad p r ob l em . The y w e r e s ti ll m ak i ng s uc hp r ed i c t i ons i n 2005 , bu t by t hen m any c om -pan i es dec i ded t o t ak e m a t t e r s i n t o t he i r ow nh a n d s . W o r k e r s w e r e g i ve n i n s t ru c t io n o n w h e nt o us e e - m a i l , and w e r e t o l d t o av o i d un -n e c e s s a r y c o p y i n g o f m e s s a g e s . S u b s t a n t ia lp e e r p r e s s u r e w a s e x e r t e d o n t h o s e w h o v i o -l a t ed no r m s o f e - m a i l behav i o r ; ev e r y e - m a i lp r og r am c ou l d au t om a t i c a l l y gen e r a t e a w h y d i dy o u s e n d m e t h is m e s s a g e ? r e s p o n s e . S o m ec o m p a n i e s e s t a b l i s h e d c h a r g i n g s y s t e m s f o r e -m a i l , w h i c h gav e i nd i v i dua l w o r k e r s a c om -m u n i c a t io n s b u d g e t . T h e g r e a t e r t h e n u m b e r o fm e s s a g e s s e n t ( a n d , i n s o m e c a s e s , t h e m o r es en i o r t he r ec ip i en t ) the m o r e qu i c k l y t he bud ge tw a s u s e d u p . S o m e fi rm s a l s o e s t a b l is h e d p e -r i ods du r i ng t he day i n w h i c h e - m a i l w as no t t ob e s e n t o r re a d . M o s t e m p l o y e e s g r e e t e d th epol ic ies w i th re l ief .

R e t u r n t o I n t e r n e t S a n i t yThe I n t e r ne t , o f c ou r s e , ha d been a k ey s ou r c eo f i n f o rm a t i on ov e r l oad . By the ea r l y 200 0s t heI n t e r n e t h a d b e c o m e e x t r e m e l y c o n g e s t e d d e -s p i t e s ev e r a l a t t em p t s t o bu l k up t he i n f r a -s t r uc t u re . M a ny f i rm s had c onc l ud ed tha t t hen e t w o r k w a s n o l o n g e r w e l l s u i te d t o t h e r e q -u i r em en t s o f bus i nes s and had bu i l t up t he i r ow nI n t rane t s . I f t hey w an t ed c us t om er s t o ac c es st h e i r s y s t e m s , t h e y s i m p l y g a v e t h e m a c c e s s t o

t h e i r p r iv a t e n e t w o r k s . C o m p a n i e s h a d a l s og r o w n t ir e d o f t h e f u r io u s p a c e o f p r o d u c t d e v e -l o p m e n t i n I n t e r n e t b r o w s e r s , W e b - p a g e m a n -a g e r s , a n d n e t w o r k - b a s e d p r o g r a m m i n g l a n -g u a g e s . T h e w o r l d w i d e I T r e c e s s i o n s l o w e d th i sp a c e s o m e w h a t , b u t n o t a s m u c h a s in o t h e r d o -m a i ns o f t he I T w o r l d .I n 2004 , t he p r ob l em r eac hed a c r i s i s po i n tw hen , due t o ex c es s i v e t r a f f i c , t he I n t e r ne tb e c a m e v ir tu a l ly u n u s a b l e . A w o r l d w i d e g r o u p o fI n te r n e t u s e r r e p r e s e n t a ti v e s w a s c o n v e n e d ; t h eg r oup de t e r m i ned t ha t I n t e r ne t t r a f f i c c ou l d nol onge r be fr ee . An I n t e r ne t t a r if f w a s es t ab l i s hedb a s e d o n t h e n u m b e r o f b i t s s e n t o r r e q u e s t e da c r o s s t h e n e t w o r k a n d t h e t im e o f d a y a t w h i c ht hey w e r e t rans f e r r ed . The t a r if f w a s pu t i n top l ac e i m m ed i a t e l y , and by m i d - dec ade I n t e r ne tt r a ff ic had d r opp ed c ons i de r ab l y . C as ua l , a i m -l e s s b r o w s i n g o f t h e W e b a l m o s t d i s a p p e a r e d ,a n d t h e n e t w o r k b e c a m e p r i m a r i l y a b u s i n e s sa n d e d u c a t i o n a l t o o l ( s c h o o l s w e r e e x e m p t e df rom pay ing th e ta r if f) .W i t h r e s p o n s e t im e s i m p ro v e d , b u s i n e s s e sbegan t o r e t u r n to t he I n te r ne t . As w i t h t he r es to f the I T f ie ld , em pha s i s be gan t o s h i f t tow a r dus i ng t he ne t w o r k and i t s app l i c a t i ons as am e a n s o f a c c e s s i n g a n d d i s p l a y i n g i n f o r m a t i o na n d k n o w l e d g e . T h e r e w a s a fl o w e r in g o f c r e -a t iv e u s es o f the I n t e r ne t f o r m a r k e t i ng a nd c u s -t om er s e r v i c e app l i c a t i ons ; t he us e o f t he t e l e -pho ne dec l i ned p r ec i p i t ous l y f o r o r de r - t ak i ng an df r on t - l i ne s e r v i c e c a l l s , and ev en w hen c us -t o m e r s d i d n e e d t o s p e a k w i t h a p e r s o n , t h e yc ou l d r ap i d ly ac c es s one by p r es s i ng the I n t e r -ne t phon e bu t t on on a s e r v i c e s c r een .A m en t a l t r ans f o r m a t i on w i t h r ega r d t o t heI n t e r ne t a l s o t ook p l ac e i n t he l a t t e r ha l f o f t hec e n t u r y ' s fi rs t d e c a d e . T h e e m p h a s i s a t t h e tu r no f the c en t u r y h ad bee n on t he m a r v e l ous ab i li tyo f th e I n t e r n e t a n d t h e W e b t o i n c r e a s e a c c e s st o i n fo r m a t i on . G i v en t he w i de s p r e ad i n f og lu to f t h e n e w d e c a d e , h o w e v e r , a c c e s s w a s n ol onge r dee m e d s uc h a pos i t iv e a t tr ibu t e . I n t e r-ne t - bas ed i n f o r m a t i on p r ov i de r s i ns t ead begant o f o c u s o n h o w t o e n g a g e t h e a t t e n t i o n o f t h ei n f o rm a t i on c ons um er . Fo r t he i r pa r t, c om pan i esa n d e m p l o y e e s t h a t u s e d t h e I n t e r n e t a s abus i nes s t oo l bega n t o foc us on ho w i n f o rm a t i onc ou l d be s ough t , ac qu i r ed , and us ed t o i m p r ov eb u s i n e s s d e c i s io n s . S e v e r a l c o m p a n i e s e v e ne s t a b l i s h e d p o l i c i e s w h e r e b y d e c i s i o n s b y

T h e D A T A B A S E fo r A d v a n c e s i n I n fo r m a t io n S y s t e m s - F a ll 1 9 9 6 ( V o l. 2 7 , N o. 4 ) 8 9


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i n di vi d u al m a n a g e r s w e r e a s s e s s e d in r e t r o s p e c tt o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r r e l e v a n t in f o r m a t i o n h a db e e n a c q u i r e d a n d u s e d .A R e t u r n t o R a n d o m I n f o r m a t i o nBy t h e y e a r 2 0 0 7 , a c l e a r s h i f t w a s u n d e r w a y i nt h i n k in g a b o u t h o w t o p r o v i d e i n f o rm a t i o n t o i n d i-v i d u a ls . W i t h t h e d e c l i n e in t e c h n o l o g y o r ie n -t a t io n , r e s e a r c h e r s a n d p r a c t i t i o n e r s w e r e a b l e t of o c u s m o r e o n h o w i n d i v i d u a l s d e a l t m o s t e f f e c -t iv e l y w i th i n f o r m a t io n , a n d h o w t o p r o d u c ed e s i r a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n e n v i r o n m e n t s .F o r e x a m p l e , a k e y a s s u m p t i o n a t t h e t u rn o f t h ec e n t u r y w a s t h a t t h e m o r e c u s t o m i z e d t h e i n f o r -m a t i o n e n v i ro n m e n t , t h e b e tt e r . O n l i n e in f o r m a -t io n s e r v i c e s , f o r e x a m p l e , e n d e a v o r e d t o p r o -d u c e n e w s s e r v i c e s t a i l o r e d t o t h e s p e c i f i c i n t e r -e s t s o f t h e r e a d e r. A d v e r t i se m e n t s , p r o d u c to f f e r i n g s , a n d p r o m o t i o n a l c a m p a i g n s w e r e i n c -r e a s i n g l y m a s s - c u s t o m i z e d f o r t h e i n d iv i d u a lr e a d e r .C o n t r a r y to e x p e c t a t io n s , h o w e v e r , m a n y r e a d -e r s f o u n d t h a t t h e s e c u s t o m i z e d i n fo r m a t io ne n v i r o n m e n t s w e r e b o ri n g . A s o n e r e a d e r c o m -m e n t e d i n a n e w s p a p e r a r t ic l e d e s c r i b in g t h et re n d , O n e o f t h e r e a s o n s I r e a d n e w s p a p e r sw a s b e c a u s e I l i k e d c o m i n g a c r o s s i t e m s t h a ts u r p r i s e d m e . W i t h t h i s D a i l y M e s y s t e m ( th en a m e o f o n e o f th e c u s t o m i z e d n e w s s e r v ic e s ) , In e v e r l e a r n a b o u t a n y t h i n g r e a ll y n e w . I n r e -s p o n s e t o t h e s e c o m p l a i n ts , b o t h o n l in e a n dp r i n t - b a s e d i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s r e t u r n e d t om o r e v a r ie d c o n te n t . T h e o p t io n s o f r a n d o ma n d a s d e e m e d im p o r t a n t b y e d i to r a p p e a r e df r e q u e n t l y in c o n t e n t s e l e c t i o n m e n u s . Ev e n t h ep a p e r n e w s p a p e r s ta g e d a b i t o f a c o m e b a c k i nc i rcu la t ion f i gures .B a c k t o B u s i n e s s a s U s u a lBy t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e n e w d e c a d e , t h e s h i f t t oa n i n f o rm a t i o n - fo c u s e d b u s i n e s s c u l tu r e w a sw e l l e s t a b l is h e d . By t h a t t im e t h e I T p r o d u c t in -dus t ry had re tu rne d to g ro w th and pro f itab il it y , asf i r m s r e p l a c e d a g i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e s , a n d v e n d o r so f f e r e d p r o d u c t s w i t h r e a l i n n o v a t i o n s i n f u n c -t ional i ty .B u t t h e t e c h n o - h y p e o f t h e p a s t n e v e r r e t u r n e d .M a n a g e r s a n d w o r k e r s h a d f i n a l l y r e a l i z e d t h a t

t e c h n o l o g y b y i ts e l f c a n n o t s o l v e b u s i n e s s p r o -b l e m s . I n f a c t, t h e t e c h n o l o g y i t s e l f n e v e r r e a l lya c h i e v e d t h e s a m e l e v e l o f p r o m i n e n c e a n d v i s i -b i l i t y tha t i t had a t ta ined in the m id-1990s .C o m p u t e r s c a m e t o b e v i e w e d a s i n fo r m a t io na p p l i a n c e s , c a p a b l e o f d o i n g u s e f u l t h i n g s w i t hi n f o r m a t i o n a n d k n o w l e d g e , b u t n o t n e a r l y a sv a l u a b l e a s h u m a n s i n m a k i n g e f f e c t i v e u s e o ft h o s e r e s o u r c e s . T e c h n o l o g y v e n d o r s g r e w a tt h e r a t e o f m o s t o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s , a n d t h e i r g r o -w t h b e c a m e s o m e w h a t c y c l i c a l a s c a p i t a ls p e n d i n g r o s e o r f e l l w i t h t h e b r o a d e r e c o n o m y .M o s t m a g a z i n e s a n d e v e n W e b p a g e s d e v o te dt o b r e a t h l e s s t e c h n o l o g y p r o s e w e n t u n d e r .B u s i n e s s p u b l i c a t i o n s e m p h a s i z e d b u s i n e s s ,a n d o n l y d i s c u s s e d t e c h n o l o g y i n p r o p o r t i o n t oi t s s i z e a n d i m p o r t a n c e a s o n e i n d u s t r y i n t h e e c -o n o m y .I n m a n y w a y s , i n f o r m a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y i n t h ee a r l y 2 1 s t c e n t u r y b e c a m e l i k e a u t o m o b i l e s - u n -d e n i a b l y u s e f u l , a n d a m a j o r f o r c e i n t h e e c o -n o m y , b u t n o t q u i t e a s f a s c i n a t i n g a s t h e y o n c ewe re . IT , l ike cars , s ti ll had the i r en thus ias ts , b u tt h e y w e r e a m i n o r i ty o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . F o r m o s tp e o p l e , c o m p u t e r s a n d c a r s w e r e s i m p l y w a y s t og e t t h i n g s d o n e .L a t e r o n in t h e 2 1 = c e n t u r y , I T b e g a n t o r e -s e m b l e a n e v e n e a r l i e r t e c h n o l o g y : e l e c t r i c i t y .H a i l e d a s a t r a n s f o r m i n g t e c h n o l o g y e a r l y i n t h e1 9 0 0 s , e l e c t r i c i t y w a s e n t i r e l y t a k e n f o r g r a n t e db y m i d - c e n t u r y . By t h e y e a r 2 0 2 0 , in f o r m a t i o nt e c h n o l o g y h a d b e e n a r o u n d f o r a l m o s t s e v e n t yy e a r s a n d w a s s i m il a rl y a s s u m e d t o b e a v a i la b l e.L i k e e l e c t r i c i t y i n t h e 1 9 9 0 s , I T i m p r o v e m e n t sh a d p l a t e a u e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s ; s i l i c o n h a dr e a c h e d it s l im i ts . M u c h o f w h a t c o u l d b ea u t o m a t e d h a d a lr e a d y b e e n d o n e . S p e c i a l iz e db u s i n e s s f u n c t i o n s f o r d e a l i n g w i t h i t b e g a n t or e c e d e , j u s t a s V i c e P r e s i d e n t s f o r E l e c t r i f i c a t i o nh a d in t h e p r e v i o u s c e n t u r y . I n f o r m a t i o n te c h -n o l o g y , l i k e e l e c t r i c i t y , h a d b e c o m e s o m e t h i n ge v e r y o n e c o u l d u s e , a n d w a s d e e p l y e m b e d d e di n e v e r y o n e ' s li fe . M a n a g e r s , w o r k e r s , a n d c it i-z e n s w e r e n o l o n g e r a b s o r b e d b y t h e t e c h n o l o g yo r it s m a n u f a c t u r e r s ; i n s t e a d , th e Se c o n dI n f o r m a t i o n R e v o l u t i o n w a s d e v o t e d t o t h e u s e o ft h i s o n c e - w o n d r o u s t o o l i n t h e s e r v i c e o fin fo rmat ion .A b o u t t h e A u t h o rThomas H Davenport i s p r o f e s s o r a n d d i r e c t o ro f t h e in f o rm a t i o n m a n a g e m e n t p r o g r a m a t t h e

90 T h e D A T A B A S E fo r A d v a n c e s i n I n fo r m a t io n S y s t e m s - - F a ll 1 9 9 6 (V o l . 2 7 , N o . 4 )


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Univers i t y o f Tex as a t Aus t in . He works in t heareas o f in fo rmation , know ledge, and proce ssm anagem en t . H e w a s p r ev ious l y d i r ec to r o fr es ea r c h a t E r ns t Y oun g ' s C en t e r f o r B us ines sInnovat ion and a consu l tan t and researcher a tM c K ins ey C om pany and C S C I ndex . H i sPh.D . is in soc io logy and o rg n i z t i o n l behav io rf rom Harvard Un ivers it y . He makes no c la ims tobe ab le to pred ic t t he fu ture , bu t he d id wr i t e t hef i r s t a r t ic le and the f i r s t book on the top ic o fbus iness process reeng ineer ing and severa l o ft he ear l ies t a r t ic les on the top ic o f know ledgem anagem en t .E - m a i l : t dav @ no t es . bus . u t ex as .edu

The D A T A B A S E f o r A dv anc e s i n I n fo r m a t ion S y s t e m s - Fa ll 1996 ( Vo l. 27 , N o . 4 ) 91

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