WHAT KIND OF GOAL HERE? REGULATION OR SMALLER?

i l lustrat ions by TODD DETWILERflag icons by Thomas PorosTocky; research by nick harris

05/28/2012 ESPN The Magazine 9998 ESPN The Magazine 05/28/2012

SECRETS OF A SHOOTOUTIn terms of sheer human drama, there isn’t an event in sports that can rival a penalty shootout. It’s soccer gone Russian roulette, with entire nations often hanging on every shot. Who knows. Euro 2012 might deliver the most agonizing one yet. So The Mag watched all 35 World Cup and Euro shootouts since the first tiebreaker in 1976—and plucked studies from across the pond—to learn the tricks of sneaking it past the keeper. —RogER BEnnETT

STICK WITH STRIKERS

KNOW YOUR HISTORY

In a shootout, each coach selects five players to take a kick. (In the case of a tie, new shooters are picked until the game is decided.) Strikers and midfielders occupied the first four spots 77% of the time; defenders took just 26% of the 343 total kicks. Across all positions, the success rate dropped 17% from the first shot to the fourth. Pressure knows no positions.

5th

4th

3rd

2nd

20 of 29

30 of 37

20 of 29

24 of 36

10 of 14

24 of 26

17 of 21

16 of 18

12 of 18

11 of 145th

4th

3rd

2nd

1st 1st

MIDFIELDERS sUCCEss ratE: 72% STRIKERS sUCCEss ratE: 82%

3

5th

4th

3rd

2nd

12 of 15

8 of 12

19 of 23

6 of 13

14 of 16

1st

DEFENDERS sUCCEss ratE: 75%

A recent norwegian study of shootouts found that when a missed kick would result in a loss, players converted 55% of the time. But if a make would result in a win, the success rate rose to 95%.

no offense to keepers, but when a shooter is staring down a 24-by-8 goal from just 12 yards out, no one expects to see a save. That expectation was backed up by our study: 258 of the 343 penalty kicks (75%) found the back of the net. The highest rates of success were kicks aimed to the top right (21 of 23) and straight down the middle (19 of 23).

Shooters aimed bottom left (18.7%) and bottom right (16.6%) most often, but converted just 73% of these kicks combined.

world football

The same norwegian study found that forwards scored on 80% of attempts and defenders converted on 68%. But that success rate dropped to 73% for star forwards (those who had won a prestigious individual award) and fell to 25% for star defenders.

WATCH YOUR SPEEDPenalty kicks can travel up to 125 mph, but a 2010 study by the Football Exchange at Liverpool’s John Moore University found that shots struck less than 50 mph have the highest success rate (73%).

Vets 31-plus were the steeliest shooters of any age group in our study (82%), while 28-year-olds had the worst success rate (62%) of players with at least 20 kicks.

RESPECT YOUR ELDERS

DON’T SWEAT THE COIN

If you’re going to bet on one of the 16 teams to win a shootout in Euro 2012, pick the Czech Republic. The club has never lost or missed a kick in the Euro or World Cup (greece, Poland and Russia have never been in a shootout).

As with oT in American football, winning the coin toss is a perceived advantage in a shootout. But only 17 of our 35 teams kicked first and laughed last.

49% of teams that kicked first won

51% of teams that kicked second won

TAKE YOUR TIME

In the norwegian study, the

shooters who took 1.1 seconds or less to make

contact after the ball was placed had the lowest

success rate (58.5%). But

those who took 2.3 to 2.9

seconds made 78.1%.

ESPN (ISSN # 1097-1998) (USPS # 016-356). Volume 15, No.10 May 28, 2012. ESPN is published biweekly, except monthly in January and July, by ESPN, 605 Third Ave., New York, NY, 10158-0180. The subscription price is $26 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to ESPN, P.O. Box 37325, Boone, IA 50037-0325. For subscription queries, call customer service at 1-888-267-3684. To change your address, log on to www.accountinfo.espnmag.com.

TRUST YOUR AIM …

AvOID PRESSURE POINTS

vS.55% 95%

kick = loss kick = win

DON’T COUNT ON STARS

Czech Republic

Germany

Denmark

Sweden

FranceSpain

Portugal

Ukraine

ItalyIreland

England

Netherlands

Croatia

100% 20 of 20 • 3

–0 record

93% 26 of 28 • 5

–1

93% 13 of 14

• 2–1

82% 9 of 11 • 1

–1

81% 25 of 31 •

3–3

76% 22 of 29 • 3

–3

75% 9 of 12 • 2

–0

75% 3 of 4 • 1

–0

70% 26 of 37 •

2–5

70% 7 of 10

• 1–1

68% 21 of 3

1 • 1–

5

67% 16 of 2

4 • 1–4

25% 1 of 4

• 0–1

vS.STARS TOTAL

7325

8068

Jersey numbers indicate success rate.defenders

forwards

% %

% %

78.1%

70%

79%

77%

LEFT-FooT goAL

… bUT PICK YOUR SPOTS

RIgHT-FooT goAL

76%

83% 75%

55% 91%

75%

16.6%

11.4%

12.5% 6.4% 6.7%

14.9%

6.1%18.7%

6.7%

•••••••••• ••••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• •••••• •••••••••• •

•••••••••• •••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••••••• •••••••••••••••••••••••

•••••••••• ••••

••••••

••••••••••• ••••••••••••

•••••••••• ••••••••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••••• ••••••••••• ••••••••••

50MPH

73%

sUCCEss ratE

aGe 18-24

7978 of 99

aGe 31+

8242 of 51

aGe 25-30

72138 of 193

SucceSS Rate