Section IllPROGRAM DESCRIPTIONSAND ACTIVITIES

OTA assessments are programmatically structured in eightprincipal areas: energy, food, health, materials, national research anddevelopment policies and priorities, oceans, technology and worldtrade, and transportation. The program areas were established bythe OTA Board as a means for organizing congressional requests forassessments. The Technology and World Trade Program is the mostrecent addition to the scope of OTA activities.

During the report year, more than 40 projects were in progress.Reports on 10 major completed assessments were delivered to therequesting committees of Congress. Forty-three requests for OTAassessments were received from Senate and House committees,bringing to 118 the number the Office has received since its incep-tion.

Section IllPROGRAM DESCRIPTIONS AND ACTIVITIES

Energy Assessment Program

Requests from Congress for OTA assess-ments of energy-related issues have beenorganized by the Energy Program into fourprincipal subject areas: energy conservation,fossil fuels, nuclear power issues, and renewa-ble energy sources. OTA projects across theseareas comprise a comprehensive program toprovide information to assist Congress inselecting among energy options directedtoward assuring both adequate supplies andmore appropriate uses of energy.

In 1976, the OTA Energy Program com-pleted analyses of the research and devel-opment plans and priorities of both the EnergyResearch and Development Administration(ERDA) and the Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA). The Energy Program alsoundertook a number of projects addressingissues and options concerning both sides of theenergy equation—supply and demand.

On the supply side, efforts were initiated toassess the impacts of and constraints on thedevelopment of solar energy, direct coal utili-zation, and improved methods of recoveringoil and gas resources. A fourth project is ex-amining the potential for proliferation ofnuclear material capable of being used inweapons, as well as the safeguards designed toprevent proliferation. In the demand sector,attention was focused on residential energyconservation, and on an analysis of the policyoptions for accelerating the realization of itspotential.

The Energy Program is working closely withthe other OTA program areas on projects ofoverlapping interest. Accordingly, in theassessment of slurry pipelines to transportcoal, the Energy Program is providing supportto the Transportation Program. These twoprogram staffs are also cooperating on thoseprojects concerned with the energy demandsfor transportation. Similarly, the Energy Pro-gram is cooperating with the Oceans Program

in work examining priorities for energy de-velopment on and under the oceans. Further,an interactive relationship has been estab-lished with the Food Program on bioconver-sion projects.

Comparative Analysis of the1976 ERDA Plan and Program

In this third report on the energy researchand development activities of ERDA, OTAresponded to a congressional request to deter-mine the effectiveness of ERDA’s plans andprograms in meeting the goals established inits enabling legislation. In this project, OTAexamined ERDA’s updated plan and programand assessed the changes made since theearlier OTA analyses. (Excerpts from thisreport may be found in section II. )

The report provided Congress with sub-stantial background data and analysis for itsauthorization, appropriations, and oversightfunctions. Prior to markup of the ERDAauthorization bill, OTA briefed the staffs ofthe Senate Committee on Commerce andHouse Committee on Science and Technology.Material prepared during the assessmentbecame the basis for recommendations madeby the Energy, Research, and DevelopmentSubcommittee of the House Committee onScience and Technology on the solar andconservation sections of the authorization bill.

A Review of theU.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s

Environmental Outlook, FY 1976-80

EPA presented its 5-year research plan toCongress in February 1976. Concerned that itslong-term research program may have beenunduly influenced by the Agency’s regulatoryactivities, Congress asked OTA to assess

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EPA’s ability to anticipate and research emerg-ing environmental problems. To assist in thisreview and analysis, OTA assembled threepanels totaling more than 50 members repre-senting a wide range of disciplines and pointsof view. One panel addressed EPA’s researchplans for control and abatement technology,while the second considered research plansfor environmental effects and technologies.The third panel reviewed the plan as a wholeand examined crosscutting issues. (Excerptsfrom this report may be found in section11,)

The report gave Congress a tool with whichto analyze the role of research and devel-opment within EPA, Following an OTA brief-ing of the Subcommittee on the Environmentand Atmosphere of the House Committee onScience and Technology, the Subcommitteecited the OTA assessment in a report on theorganization and management of EPA’s Officeof Research and Development, In addition, theEPA Assistant Administrator for Research andDevelopment acknowledged that the OTAanalyses made a positive contribution to EPA’sefforts to revise and improve its program.

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Solar Electric Energy

Nearing completion during the report year,this project, requested by the Senate Commit-tee on Aeronautical and Space Sciences,addresses the feasibility and potential of onsitesolar energy systems for generating elec-tricity, heating, and cooling. Two methods ofgenerating electricity y by solar means are understudy: using solar-heated fluids to drive con-ventional generators, and converting the sun’senergy to electricity in photovoltaic cells. Bothmethods also produce waste heat which can beused directly for heating and cooling.

One of OTA’s major assessments, this workis directed toward analyzing the costs andoperations of conventional heating and coolingsystems, several modes and levels of varioussolar technologies, and how solar technologiesmight be incorporated with existing systems.The examination covers nine types of solarcollectors, two types of photovoltaic systems,and associated control, heat . transfer, andstorage mechanisms. The levels of use beinganalyzed range from single-family dwellings,through clusters of buildings and multiunitstructures, to small communities. The assess-ment also is examining the economic,institutional, and environmental impacts ofsolar energy systems.

The assessment is being performed by OTAstaff with the assistance of contractors, con-sultants, and a citizen’s advisory panel. Earlydrafts of the technical sections of the reportwere extensively revised and expanded byOTA staff in 1976. In addition, OTA devel-oped independent analytical programs to eval-uate technical and economic aspects of eachsystem, both in and of themselves and incomparison with existing or potentially com-peting energy systems. The project was sched-uled for completion in early 1977.

Enhanced Recovery of Oil and Gas

Some of the controversy with regard toenergy stems from a lack of complete orreliable information on the extent to whichenergy resources exist within the UnitedStates. An important question underlying thisdetermination is the amount of oil and gaspotentially available from known reservoirs

through the use of enhanced recovery tech-niques. Accordingly, OTA is examining datasources about oil and gas and identifying theprospects for their recovery by secondary andtertiary methods, as well as those factorswhich may encourage or hinder implementa-tion of such methods.

OTA staff and contractors reviewed, ana-lyzed, and correlated the findings of recentreports from a variety of Government andprivate sources on enhanced oil recovery. Thiswork served as the basis for developing anexpanded data base covering about 50 per-cent of the known oil reserves in the UnitedStates. This effort was assisted by an advisory

team of specialists from the University ofKansas assembled by OTA to gather technicaldata for an analysis of reserve sources.

This assessment, proposed by Senator TedStevens of the OTA Board, responds torequests from the Senate Committees onCommerce and on Interior and Insular Affairs,and the House Committee on Science andTechnology. A report was expected in early1 9 7 7 .

Residential Energy Conservation

Several technologies in use or under devel-opment can save significant amounts ofenergy in the heating and cooling of residentialbuildings. In this project, OTA is evaluatingthe potential for such conservation over thenext 15 years and identifying the impacts ofand constraints on achieving that potential.The principal objective of the study is to ana-lyze the policy options that Congress mightpursue to accelerate conservation measures.

Undertaken at the request of the SenateCommittee on Commerce, the assessment wasscheduled for completion in the spring of 1977.

Coal Utilization

As the prices of oil and gas have increased,and as their availability has become increas-ingly dependent on uncertain foreign sources,Congress has returned attention to coal as anabundant resource. In doing so, Congressfaces questions arising from the conflicting

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requirements in using coal to meet energydemands while maintaining appropriate envi-ronmental standards.

This project is evaluating and comparing theimpacts of different methods, available orunder development, for burning coal directly(i.e., in contrast to converting it to gas orliquids). An important part of the assessmentis focusing on methods, either available orbeing developed, to increase the burning effi-ciency of coal, thereby reducing pollutants andother undesirable byproducts.

A second part of the project is examining thetechnologies for, and environmental and otherimpacts of, converting coal to gas or liquidforms for combustion. The assessment,undertaken at the request of the SenateCommittee on Public Works, is being per-formed by OTA staff with the assistance ofcontractors and an advisory panel. It wasscheduled for completion in early 1977.

Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards

Long an international issue, the spectre of anuclear holocaust has been intensified by the

recent spread of nuclear material generated bythe growth in nuclear energy developmentaround the world. This proliferation hasheightened concern that nuclear material andknow-how, provided both by the United Statesand other countries, could be used to buildnuclear weapons by those nations that do notnow possess them.

To assist Congress in determining how thistrend can be retarded and the potential disas-ter minimized, OTA is analyzing the problemsattendant to proliferation of nuclear materialsand the safeguards in use or that might be usedto prevent diversion to weapons production.This, in turn, will provide information for theassessment’s evaluation of the possibilities for,and the potential of, developing safeguards toprevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

The project is being performed by OTAstaff, contractors, and an advisory panel.Efforts on this analysis were forwarded by aworkshop held to formulate a work plan,followed by a succession of four panel meet-ings to review and assist the work of OTAstaff. The assessment, requested by the Sen-ate Committee on Government Operations,was expected to be completed in early 1977.

Food Program

In 1972-73, shortages of foods, fuels, andfertilizers disrupted U.S. and world marketsand altered public perceptions of availability ofthese items. Since that time, improvements inthe world food outlook have occurred. Insteadof shortages, world cereal production in 1976exceeded that of 1975 by 9 percent, and worldcarryover stocks (surpluses over that neededimmediately) were expected to be the largest in5 years. In the United States alone, carryoverwheat stocks should be the largest since 1963.

At the same time different concerns arose,particularly in the United States. Large sec-tions of the country west of the MississippiRiver were experiencing their worst droughtin years. Accidents or careless handling ofnonbiodegradable chemicals, as well as chemi-cal additives to foods, posed hazards for both

livestock and human food sources. State andFederal regulations affecting food produc-tion, processing, and marketing have increasedsharply in recent years. New regulations maybe required to protect the environment andconsumers’ health; yet some regulationsappear excessively burdensome to the foodindustry in relation to the protection theyprovide for society.

To assist Congress with these and otherrelated issues, the OTA Food AssessmentProgram embraces a wide range of issuesconcerning agriculture, food, and nutrition.Food Program activities are divided into threefunctional areas: (1) production, from input tothe farm gate; (2) marketing, consisting ofprocessing, wholesaling, and retailing; and (3)consumption and nutrition. These activities

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address two primary congressional! concerns:better management and use of technologiesand resources, and the impact of U.S. foodpolicies on the nutrition and health of con-sumers at home and abroad.

The need to anticipate changes that affectthe U.S. and world food systems has been ex-amined thoroughly in OTA’s assessment offood information systems, published duringthe report year. The study has been used tohelp apprise Congress of the need and some ofthe means available for obtaining as muchadvance notice as possible of national andinternational food crises.

Yet another project dealing with the overallfood situation initiated in 1976 is assessing al-ternatives in U.S. food policy. This project isintended to provide information and publicpolicy options for Congress to consider in leg-islating a national food policy.

In the food production area, OTA is exam-ining alternative methods for funding of high-priority U.S. agricultural research. Basicresearch in the biological sciences that under-pin livestock and crop production technologyin the United States has been curtailed inrecent years. This deficiency, unless correctedin the near future, may limit potentialimprovements in food production technologyin the coming decades. A second project is eval-uating the consequences of increasing U.S.support for agricultural research in devel-oping countries.

In the marketing area, OTA projects areaddressing issues concerning the transfer offood processing technology to developingcountries and the impact of Federal regulationand food grading standards on consumerchoices.

In a nutrition-related activity, OTA sur-veyed so persons knowledgeable in the foodand nutrition fields. Analysis of survey resultsidentified five issues of concern: (1) publichealth problems affected by nutrition, (2)monitoring U.S. and international food con-sumption and nutrition status, (3) assessingFederal food and nutrition programs, (4) publicawareness of nutrition, and (5) the quality,safety, and nutritional value of food. In thatthese issues correspond to congressional con-cerns, the survey results are expected to serve

as a resource for possible nutrition assess-ments.

In carrying out these projects, the OTAFood Program calls upon the information re-sources of several executive branch agencies.These include the Department of Agriculture(USDA), the Agency for International Devel-opment, the Federal Trade Commission, andthe Food and Drug Administration.

Two Food Program assessments under wayduring the report year complement projects inother OTA program areas, The assessment ofneeds and alternatives for implementing

research and development in agriculture isrelated to the OTA Research and Devel-opment Program, while the project concerning

the transfer of food processing technology todeveloping countries has themes common tothose being developed in OTA’s Technologyand World Trade Program. In addition, suchmarketing issues overlap with concerns ofOTA’s Transportation Program, while nutri-tion issues correlate with similar issues thatare the subjects of OTA Health Programanalyses.

Food Information Systems

This report, published in August 1976,

consists of two volumes. The first records fourdays of public hearings on food informationsystems held by the OTA Board on September24 and 25, 1975; December 10, 1975; andFebruary 4, 1976. The second volume sum-marizes and analyzes testimony elicited at thehearings and other material submitted bywitnesses, OTA staff, and Board members.(Excerpts from this report may be found insection II. )

Requested by the Senate Committee onAgriculture and Forestry, the assessmentprovided material for four congressional hear-ings: two were held by the Subcommittee onForeign Agriculture Policy of the Senate Com-mittee on Agriculture and Forestry, and oneeach by the Subcommittee on Census andPopulation of the House Committee on PostOffice and Civil Service and the Senate SelectCommittee on Nutrition and Human Needs. Abill requiring USDA to conduct an agricul~ur-

39

40

NASA Photo.

al census every 5 years was based on materialprepared for the OTA hearings.

Agricultural Research and Development

Initiated during the report year, this assess-ment consists of two separate but relatedparts: an evaluation of the alternatives forsupporting high-priority agricultural researchin the United States, and an analysis of theimplications which could result from possibleincreases in U.S. support of agriculturalresearch in developing countries.

Preliminary findings obtained in 1976 aidedthe staffs of two subcommittees of the HouseCommittee on Science and Technology inhearing preparations, and material developedby OTA was expected to be used in hearingsscheduled for early 1977 by the Foreign Assist-ance Subcommittee of the Senate Committeeon Foreign Relations. Requested by the JointEconomic Committee and the House Commit-tee on Science and Technology, a report wasexpected early in 1977.

Transfer of Food Processing Technologyto Developing Countries

The growth in population experienced bymany developing countries, in combinationwith continued drought, has made widespreadhunger a grim reality in many parts of theworld. Recent uncertainties about U.S. agri-cultural output have reinforced the argumentadvanced by many observers that long-rangesolutions lie in developing nations becomingself-sufficient in food production.

Toward that end, OTA is evaluating the al-ternatives for and consequences of exportingU.S. food processing technology to such de-veloping countries. As part of this, the projectis identifying the quality and range of foodsavailable to such nations, as well as thosetechnologies which would be likely to increasetheir total food supply, improve its nutritivevalue, and/or lower the cost of high-quality

food.

In addition, OTA is analyzing the effective-ness of institutional channels for, the methodsof, and constraints to such transfers, The

options available to Congress for stimulating

such transfer are also being examined.

R e q u e s t e d b y t h e J o i n t E c o n o m i cCommittee, the Senate Select Committee onNutrition and Human Needs, and the HouseCommittee on Agriculture, this assessmentwas scheduled for completion in early 1978.

Food Grading

Present Federal food grades impart littleinformation to the consumer, whose demandsfor more information have led Congress toconsider changing the standards for U.S. foodgrades. Current grading criteria are based onsensory characteristics such as taste, flavor,color, or exterior appearance. A more uniformterminology, increased nutritional informa-tion, and standardized systems for gradingmight be of great benefit to consumers.

At the request of the Senate Committee onAgriculture and Forestry and the Senate SelectCommittee on Nutrition and Human Needs,OTA is examining current standards for foodgrading to determine if and how changingthem will affect consumers. Specifically, theproject is evaluating changing the present pro-ducer-oriented grading system to a moreretail- or consumer-oriented one.

The assessment identifies and analyzesthree major issues: (1) changing the criteria orsorting rules used for food grades; (2) chang-ing the present optional Federal grading sys-tem to a mandatory system; and (3) determin-ing the adequacy of present gradingterminology for consumers. These issues arebeing evaluated for grading fresh red meat,fresh fruits and vegetables, and processedfoods.

The first part of the project was expected tobe completed in early 1977.

Alternatives in U.S. Food Policy

This project integrates results from severaldifferent assessments being undertaken by theFood Program, It is assessing technologicalissues and problems relating to U.S. foodpolicy in the production, marketing,consumption, and nutrition areas.

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The OTA Food Program and its Food Advi-sory Committee have established three objec-tives for the assessments of alternatives inU.S. food policy. First, a statement was beingprepared on the components needed to formu-late a national food policy. Second, publicpolicy and technological issues of concern toCongress are being identified and analyzed.Third, emerging issues in the food area arebeing identified and analyzed.

OTA examined the policies and programsaffecting each element of the system, how

they relate to one another, and the tradeoffswhich result from trying to resolve conflictsthat arise between competing goals (such aslow prices for consumers and higher incomesfor farmers).

The assessment was requested by SenatorHubert Humphrey of the OTA Board, theSenate Committee on Agriculture and For-estry, the Senate Select Committee on Nutri-tion and Human Needs, and the House Com-mittee on Agriculture. A report was scheduledfor completion in early 1978.

Health Program

The purpose of the OTA Health Program isto conduct technology-related research stud-ies on health policy for the committees ofCongress. The Health Program has concen-trated its initial efforts on issues related tomedical technologies, rather than broadeningits scope to include other fundamental issuessuch as behavioral, environmental, and occu-pational health.

Medical technologies are defined as the setof drugs, devices, and procedures used bymedical professionals in delivering medicalcare to individuals and the organizationalsystems within which such care is delivered.These applications of scientific knowledge inthe health field address a wide range of medicalpurposes: disease prevention, diagnosis, ther-apy, rehabilitation, organizational support,and patient care. Such technologies take theform of both hardware (devices and facilities)and software (methods and skills).

Congressional committees are concernedwith Federal policies that bear upon manyactivities in the development and use of medi-cal technologies: determination of need,research and development, validation ofresearch findings, diffusion, use, financing,and measurement of outcome. Throughout allthese activities, issues concerning quality, costcontrol (efficiency), and equity arise.

One assessment completed in 1976 exam-ined the potential benefits to be derived from

more fully analyzing new medical technologieswith respect to their impact on the patient, thepatient’s family, the medical care system, andon the legal, social, and political structures insociety. A detailed examination of the policyimplications of one new technology, the com-puted tomography (or CT) scanner, is the.subject of a study initiated during the year.

In another assessment undertaken duringthe year, OTA is examining policies fordetermining the efficacy and safety of newmedical technologies before they are placedinto widespread use. In yet another study,OTA is evaluating the benefits and limita-tions of medical information systems that usecomputers to process both administrative andmedical data. Special emphasis is being given toactivities related to clinical medical care. TheOTA Health Program is also completing ananalysis of alternative policies that mightimprove the use of prescription drugs.

Policy studies in the Health Program areconducted by OTA staff with the assistance ofexpert advisory panels, consultants, and, forsome specific tasks, outside organizations oncontract to OTA. The Health Program Advi-sory Committee assists in the development ofresearch plans for studies, including definitionof issues, scope, and methodology.

In planning and carrying out studies, HealthProgram staff work closely with congressionalcommittee staff as well as with other legisla-

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tive and executive branch agencies, such as theCongressional Research Service, GeneralAccounting Office, Congressional BudgetOffice, and the Department of Health, Educa-tion, and Welfare.

Development of Medical Technology:Opportunities for Assessment

The OTA report examined the need toassess the social impacts of new medical tech-nologies while they are being developed, thekinds of questions that might be asked in suchassessments, by whom, and at what point inthe development process assessments couldmost effectively be conducted. The reportpresented the case histories of nine technolo-gies to illustrate medical technologies, howthey are developed, and why assessing theirsocial impacts might be helpful. (Excerpts fromthis report may be found in the precedingsect ion.)

Requested by the Senate Committee onLabor and Public Welfare, the report waspublished in August. At year’s end, its findingswere being used by the committee staff toprepare for hearings planned for spring 1977concerning the possibility of requiring assess-ments of new medical technologies developedwith the aid of Federal funds.

Policy Implications of ComputedTomography Scanners

The computed tomography (CT) scanner, anew radiological device which combines anonline computer with sophisticated X-rayequipment to produce a cross section image, isused to diagnose a wide variety of diseases.Rapidly and enthusiastically accepted by themedical community, CT scanning in the Unit-ed States is already costing more than $200million per year, and is growing rapidly. TheFederal Government, through private insur-ance companies and individual patients, isfaced with the problem of paying these bills.The combination of the revolutionary natureof CT technology, the rapidity of its accept-

ance, and its expense have created many majorproblems for the medical system.

Because many of these problems are com-mon to a number of new medical technologies,CT scanners provide a case study that high-lights several important issues for healthpolicy. These issues include: Federal policyregarding safety and efficacy, the effect ofhealth planning and regulatory policies ondiffusion, the relationship between efficacyand patterns of use, and the impact of reim-bursement policies on expenditures. Theassessment, requested by the Senate Commit-tee on Finance, was expected to be completedin late 1977.

Achieving Safer, More Effective, and LessCostly Use of Therapeutic Drugs

Although Americans spend more than $10billion annually on drugs, numerous questionsconcerning the cost, use, and effects of thera-peutic drugs remain unanswered. Allegedproblems include: errors in administration ofdrugs, noncompliance by patients, inadequateprofessional and consumer education, andunder- and over-utilization of drugs. Inordi-nate or inappropriate use of drugs can lead toprotracted illness or needless injury, as well asincreased costs.

In this study, OTA is analyzing a broadrange of factors that limit safer, moreeffective, and more economical use of drugs.The problem of adverse drug effects is beinggiven particular attention, In addition, anumber of strategies designed to improve druguse are being evaluated. The alternatives fallinto several categories: information providedto health professionals, review of behavior ofhealth professionals, administration and man-agement of drug use, education and training ofhealth professionals, regulation and control ofprocedures used by health professionals, andinformation provided to patients. Systems tomonitor adverse drug effects are also beingreviewed.

This assessment, which was requested bythe House Committee on Ways and Means, islimited to prescription drugs. Completion wasexpected in late 1977.

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—. — ———— .—.——

Efficacy and Safety of MedicalTechnologies

Issues of efficacy arise when a new technol-ogy is introduced, when a widely used technol-ogy is later questioned, or when alternativetherapies are compared. Various laws havebeen enacted to regulate the safety and effi-cacy of drugs and medical devices.

Determination of safety and efficacy ofprocedures, however, is widely considered tobe a professional responsibility, although sometesting is being conducted by various Federalagencies and private groups. However, suchwidely used technologies as tonsillectomy,appendectomy, and fetal monitoring have notbeen completely assessed for efficacy andsafety. Other widely used procedures, such asmammography, are now being reexamined.

In this study, OTA is using 16 short casestudies to illustrate the diverse nature ofmedical technologies, the difficulties in deter-mining efficacy and safety, and Federal in-volvement in assessing efficacy before tech-nologies come into widespread use. The OTAHealth Program is examining the need forassessing efficacy and safety, the methods andprocedures available for such assessment, thetypes of assessment presently being sup-ported by the Federal Government, and waysto improve existing policies.

The report was undertaken at the request ofthe Senate Committee on Labor and PublicWelfare. Completion was expected in late1977.

Medical Information Systems

Almost 90 percent of all hospitals in theUnited States use some form of electronic dataprocessing. For the most part, hospitals haveautomated only business and administrativefunctions; few health care facilities presentlyuse computers for activities related to clinicalcare. Computer systems that process bothadministrative and medical data, known asmedical information systems, have recentlybeen developed and are now being marketed.

This assessment analyzes the benefits andlimitations of such systems. Three represent-ative systems are being examined: onedesigned for use in an acute-care hospital, onedesigned for ambulatory care, and one that canbe used in either setting.

The study is directed toward an exam-ination of the impact of such systems onpatient care, the quality of care, medical educa-tion, professional roles, research, planning,malpractice litigation, and the confidentialityof patient records. The Health Program isidentifying factors, such as cost, transferabil-ity, and acceptability, that will influence theimplementation and use of medical informa-tion systems. Alternative Federal policies arebeing analyzed regarding more widespread useof such systems.

The assessment was requested by the Sen-ate Committee on Labor and Public Welfare. Itwas expected to be completed in late 1977.

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Materials Program

The processing and use of materials*account for almost 50 percent of the U.S. grossnational product. About 45 percent of the full-time work force, some 34 million workers,were employed in the materials sectors of theeconomy in 1973. Until the 1973 oil embargo,however, the importance of raw and processedmaterials, and the fact that some were in shortsupply and/or controlled by foreign sources,was not generally appreciated.

In its requests for OTA assessments, Con-gress has reflected a concern over the futureavailability of adequate quantities of materialsto maintain current standards of living.Congress is also concerned about whethersupplies will be assured by the normal actionsof the economic marketplace, or whether someGovernment action is required.

To meet these concerns, the OTA MaterialsProgram is built around the total materialscycle, from exploration and extractionthrough production to . use, reuse, andeventual disposal. This approach emphasizesthe linkages between issues at one phase of thecycle with those at another. The individualprojects address both the supply and demandsides of the materials equation.

During the report year, OTA published tworeports addressing separate but related issuesinvolving materials. The first, released inOctober 1976, examined the possible use of anational stockpile of critical materials forbroader purposes than national security inorder to avoid future economic dislocations.The second, published in December, analyzedexisting and possible institutional means forimproving the capabilities of the Federal Gov-ernment to acquire information on materialsneeded to support policy decisions.

Work progressed in 1976 on five assess-ments. One project is examining the issuesrelating to resource recovery from and themanagement of municipal solid wastes. Two

* “Materials” has been defined in Science Policy - A WorkingGlossary (1976 edition) as “stuff that things are made of orwith, or could be. ”

assessments deal with issues and problemsrelated to access to minerals. The first is ex-amining laws, policies, and practices that affectthe exploration for and production of mineralsfrom Federal lands. The second is looking atthe effects of Federal land management andownership on mineral exploration and devel-opment on non-Federal lands.

Another project deals with alternative tech-nological approaches for conserving materialsin both their manufacture and use. Finally,OTA is assessing the value of past and futuremining activity on existing Federal coal leases.

A number of related problems or issues arebeing looked at by OTA from different anglesby several program areas. Coal, for instance, isbeing assessed by three separate projects inthree program areas: (1) the Materials Pro-gram is evaluating Federal coal leases; (2) theEnergy Program is studying coal utilization;and (3) the Transportation. Program is exam-ining the use of slurry pipelines to transportcoal.

Alternative EconomicStockpiling Policies

Undertaken for the House Committee onScience and Technology, the findings of thereport have been widely used by Congress andother organizations. OTA briefed the staffs ofthe Senate Committee on Commerce, theDepartment of Defense Materials ShortagesSteering Committee, the Federal Prepared-ness Agency, and the Materials Division of theDepartment of Commerce. In addition, OTAassisted the Subcommittee on Materials Avail-ability of the Joint Committee on DefenseProduction in preparations for hearings oneconomic stockpiling held June 8 and 9, 1976.Finally, the National Commission on Suppliesand Shortages used the findings to help pre-pare for its report to the President and toCongress issued in December 1976. (Excerptsfrom this report may be found in section II.),

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48

Materials Information

This report addresses

Systems

the alternativemethods by which policy makers in Congressand elsewhere would receive adequate andtimely information about supplies and poten-tial shortages of materials which are critical tothe U.S. economy. The project assessed theneeds, character, institutional structure, andeffects of information systems on the supply,processing, and use of materials. (Excerptsfrom this report may be found in section II.)

The assessment was requested by the HouseCommittee on Science and Technology. Thestaffs of four separate congressional commit-tees were briefed at various stages of theproject and given copies of the interim report.In 1976, as in 1975, OTA staff testified athearings conducted by the Senate Committeeson Commerce and Interior and Insular Affairson proposals to establish, among other things,a national energy information system.

Also, the National Commission on Suppliesand Shortages has been closely involved withthis and other Materials Program projects.OTA briefed the Commission staff in prepara-tion for a conference held April 19 to 23, 1976,and for the Engineering Foundation Confer-ence at Henniker, N. H., held on August 8 to13, 1976. The OTA Director submitted themajor findings of the assessment for insertioninto the record of public hearings held by theCommission on October 13, 1976.

Resource Recovery, Recycling,and Reuse

The generation and management of munici-pal solid wastes present substantial problemsfor local, State, and Federal governments.Wastes are not only costly to collect, but alsoneed to be disposed of in an economical and en-vironmentally acceptable manner. In addition,the generation of wastes results in a morerapid consumption of natural resources.Accordingly, OTA is studying the potentialfor, and barriers to, recycling and reusing re-sources recovered from the waste stream.OTA’s purpose is to identify and analyze both

the policy options for the resolution of theseproblems, and the likely impacts of implement-ing” those options.

The project includes several parts: an evalu-ation of markets for such recovered goods aspaper, aluminum, ferrous metals, glass, andenergy; an analysis of the impacts of freightrates on the movement and sale of recoveredgoods; a study of the economic and technologi-cal feasibility of centralized facilities for re-source recovery; and an analysis of the implica-tions of mandatory deposits on beveragecontainers.

The assessment, being performed by OTAstaff with the assistance of a subcommittee ofthe OTA Materials Advisory Committee, wasrequested by the Senate Committee on Com-merce and the House Committee on Scienceand Technology. OTA worked with congres-sional staff during deliberations leading to theResource Conservation and Recovery Act,enacted on October 21,1976.

In addition, OTA staff briefed the Subcom-mittee on Environment and Atmosphere ofthe House Committee on Science and Tech-nology. Background material on recyclingmaterials was prepared for the staffs of theSenate Committees on Public Works andFinance. OTA staff also participated as panelmembers at a symposium held on April 7,1976, on resource conservation and recoverysponsored by the Subcommittee on Trans-portation and Commerce of the House Com-mittee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce.

The final report was expected to be com-pleted late in 1977.

Minerals Accessibility on Federal Lands

OTA is assessing the effects of modifying orrestructuring State and Federal laws, policies,and practices that significantly affect theexploration for and production of mineralslocated on Federal lands. The objective of theassessment is to provide a l ternat iveapproaches to facilitating mineral devel-opment in ways that are environmentallyacceptable and take nonmineral land uses intoaccount.

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——

The assessment is divided into two parts.The first involves a compilation and analysis ofinformation on the effects of current Federaland State laws, policies, and practices relatingto mineral development on Federal lands. Thesecond is analyzing possible adjustments in theexisting system for managing the exploitationof minerals on Federal lands, as well as theimpacts of those adjustments.

The assessment was requested by SenatorTed Stevens of the OTA Board and the Sen-ate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs,One report was expected in the fall of 1977,another by the end of 1977.

An interim report was distributed to theSenate and the House Committees on Interiorand Insular Affairs and many individualmembers of those committees, to other inter-ested committees and Members of Congress,to executive agencies, and to the public.

In addition, OTA sponsored an assessmentworkshop in July that enabled congressionalstaff to question representatives of executiveagencies, private industry, and interest groupson various issues relating to minerals andFederal land management.

Minerals Accessibility on Non-Federal Lands

This project is assessing the various aspectsof Federal land management and ownershipthat influence the exploration for and devel-opment of minerals on non-Federal lands, oron Federal lands where the surface and sub-surface property rights are severed. Theassessment is focusing on situations where theFederal Government owns only the surfaceland or only the minerals, as well as on accessacross Federal lands to minerals located onnon-Federal lands.

This assessment, which evolved from theminerals accessibility on Federal lands project,was requested by Senator Ted Stevens of theOTA Board. The assessment was expected toproduce two reports by the end of 1977.

Conservation ThroughReduced Wastage

Since in the manufacture and use of prod-ucts a large amount of materials might besaved, OTA is analyzing alternative techno-logical approaches to conserving materials. Toprovide an appropriate focus for a potentially

wide-ranging effort, the scope of this assess-ment is limited to primary metals (chromium,nickel, copper, aluminum, and iron) and cer-tain key products, such as autos and railroadrolling stock, appliances, and military andconstruction equipment.

The assessment is directed toward the studyof the flow of materials from their source toend-use products, examining the cycle todetermine the reasons for wastage, and identi-fying and evaluating alternative approaches tothe design and manufacture as well as theconservation of materials. The project isdivided into two parts: an engineering analysisto define the state of the technology forconservation, and a public policy analysis ofthe options for Congress in considering theimpacts of the technology.

Requested by the Senate Committee onCommerce, the project was expected to becompleted by mid-1978.

Existing Federal Coal Development

OTA is analyzing Federal coal leases, per-mits, and preference-right lease applicationswith respect to current and future plans forthe development of coal reserves. Mandatedby Congress in Section 10 of the Federal CoalLeasing Amendments Act of 1975, the assess-ment is analyzing all mining activities, deter-mining the revenues from those leases, andevaluating the feasibility of using deep mining

technology in the leased areas.

This assessment was to be completed by theend of 1977.

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Oceans Program

Recent years have brought an increasedawareness of the impact of the oceans on thewell-being of man—the oceans’ potential as asource of food, fuel, and hard minerals; theiruse as avenues of world commerce and com-munications; and their role in man’s researchfor knowledge about his resources and envi-ronment. At the same time, the oceans areincreasingly recognized as a finite resource,one to be managed in a way that will strike abalance between immediate use and longer-term viability,

To assist Congress in its deliberations ofsuch matters, the OTA Oceans Programfocuses on a broad range of issues involvingthe use and quality of the oceans and thesystems deployed on or in the oceans and alongtheir shores. The program is particularlyconcerned with examining possible futureuses of the oceans.

Early studies by the Oceans Program cen-tered on the potential for, and impacts of,using the oceans to help meet the energy needsof the Nation. In December 1976, OTA pub-lished a report on the impacts of three pro-posed offshore energy systems on the coastalareas of New Jersey and Delaware. A relatedproject was underway on the implications ofvarious proposed technologies for harnessingthe ocean itself as a source of energy. Anotherproject examines the public decisionmakingprocess for, and the effects of, locating energyfacilities in coastal areas. Some aspects of theseassessments involve work by other OTAprograms, especially the Energy Program.

Work continued on an assessment of tech-nologies for carrying out provisions of the new200-mile fisheries zone created by Congress. Aplanning study was initiated to aid Congress inits evaluation of Federal expenditures formarine science and technology.

Coastal Effects of Offshore Energy Systems

The report on the effects three proposedoffshore energy systems might have on thecoastal areas of New Jersey and Delawareculminated a 3-year, multifaceted effort by

OTA. The three systems are: the explorationfor and development of offshore oil and gas,use of deepwater ports for large oil tankers,and generation of electricity by floatingnuclear powerplants. (Excerpts from thisreport may be found in section II. )

As part of this assessment, OTA completeda public participation program which involvedmore than 15,000 people through workshops,public meetings, interviews, citizen advisory

panels, and distribution of questionnaires andbrochures. The program was intended tocontribute to the public understanding of thetechnologies being assessed and to insure thatthe final report reflected the views and con-cerns of the people who would be affected bythe technologies,

Throughout the year, various sections ofthe report were used by numerous committeesof jurisdiction in both the House of Repre-sentatives and the Senate in preparation oflegislation dealing with tanker safety, oil spillliability, coastal zone management, and off-shore oil and gas leasing. The report served asa resource for public debate centering on thepotential licensing of a floating nuclear power-plant off Atlantic City. It was used by bothCongress and the Administration in planningreorganization of the U.S. Department of theInterior. The report was expected to continueto serve as a working paper for upcoming OCSlegislation throughout the 95th Congress.

Late in 1976, in response to a series of tankergrounding and oil spills, the Oceans Programrestated the findings of a 1975 analysis of “OilTransportation by Tankers.” Updated statis-tics were provided on oil spills, foreign tankerregistration, and the status of technology formarine safety and pollution control. Thisemergency response assisted congressionalcommittees in their inquiries into the tankeraccidents, provided support for SenatorEdward M. Kennedy at hearings in Boston onDecember 22, 1976, relative to the Argo Mer-chant spill, and was to support further hearingson tanker safety scheduled early in 1977 by theSenate Committee on Commerce.

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Three siting alternatives for floating nuclear plants

1. Nearshore siting-open-cycle cooling

2. Inshore sitting-cooling towers

3. Riverine siting–open-cycle cooling

Source Offshore Power Systems, Inc.●

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In addition, work proceeded on the follow-ing projects:

Fisheries Technology

In April 1976, Congress established a 200-mile offshore fisheries zone, giving the Nationjurisdiction to limit fishing by foreign nationsand to establish regulations which wouldpreserve fish stocks and encourage the U.S.fishing industry to grow and develop newcommercial and recreational fisheries. Toassist Congress in assessing the impacts of thislaw, the Oceans Program is studying tech-niques to be used in enforcing fisheries regu-lations, management practices to be used inregulating the fisheries, and opportunitieswhich may be created by implementation ofthe law. The study is identifying changeswhich are desirable in the Federal structuredealing with fisheries and is analyzing newelectronics surveillance systems which may beuseful in enforcing regulations.

A report on this assessment, which wasrequested by the Senate Committee on Com-merce and the House Committee on MerchantMarine and Fisheries, was expected to bereleased in the spring of 1977.

Renewable Energy From the Oceans

A number of technologies have been pro-posed to harness the energy of the oceansthemselves. These include conversion systemsfor geothermal energy, tidal and ocean ther-mal powerplants, salinity gradient and oceanfarming systems, and mechanisms to extractwind, wave, and current energy.

The Oceans Program is analyzing eachsystem’s potential for meeting energy needsand the adequacy and effectiveness of Federalsupport and regulatory mechanisms for thesystems. A report was expected in spring 1977for the Senate National Ocean Policy Study.

Marine Science and Technology

The Federal Government has invested largesums of money during the past two decades in

research projects involving the oceans andcoastal areas. In a planning study directedtoward evaluating the progress that has or hasnot been made as a result of these expendi-tures, OTA is examining possible alternativesfor organizing such Federal research efforts,as well as legislation which may be needed.

During this project, a set of questions wassubmitted to a wide range of marine specialistsin such areas as transportation, fishing,energy, hard minerals, ocean research andengineering, and meteorology. Responsesfrom these specialists were used to outline thestatus of technology and the research needs ineach area.

The planning study, requested by the Sen-ate National Ocean Policy Study, was due to becompleted in spring 1977.

Siting of Energy Facilities

Meeting the demand for energy requiresnew facilities, which, in turn, raises questionsand possible conflicts regarding their location.This is particularly the case in the coastal areaswhere population density is high and indus-trial, residential, transportation, and recrea-tional users compete for land. In addition,energy facilities are viewed by many as threatsto the ecological and environmental balance ofthe coastal areas.

These factors are all being considered in anOTA project examining the effects of thepublic decisionmaking process on the geo-graphical location of powerplants, oil refiner-ies, and other energy facilities. The study isanalyzing the extent to which Federal laws andpolicies, such as those regulating air and waterquality, influence the location of energy facili-ties. It also is assessing the long-range impactsof energy facilities on population distributionand economic growth.

A report on this study, requested by theHouse Committee on Interior and InsularAffairs and the Senate Committee on Com-merce, is due in late 1977.

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— —-

National Research and Development

Policies and Priorities Program

Research and development activities arevital to the economic, social, and technologicalwell being of any country. The significance ofresearch and development goes beyond thedollars involved-–$26.3 billion in the Federalbudget for fiscal year 1978, plus about another$20 billion in the private sector. R&D expendi-tures can induce rippling effects by stimulatingtechnological innovation and economic activ-ity, and may, in fact, be a prerequisite toinnovation.

The Federal Government provides nearly 70percent of the support for basic research in theUnited States. In an era of limited resources,Congress often must resolve the conflictingclaims for support from advocates of basicversus applied research. However, appliedresearch is often grounded in the discoveriesof basic research. The problem is to determinewhat basic research to support and how best toallocate finite resources among competingdemands.

Congress, its committees, and individualMembers and their staffs are faced withdiscerning the effects of Federal R&D priori-ties, and examining legislative options forgetting the most out of federally sponsoredR&D. Seven different congressional units-–the Senate and House Committees on theBudget, the Congressional Budget Office, theJoint Economic Committee, the Senate Com-mittees on Commerce and on Aeronauticaland Space Sciences, and the House Committeeon Science and Technology—plus severalmembers of the OTA Board requested orexpressed an interest in assessments relatingto the R&D activities of the Federal Govern-ment.

As a result, the OTA Board, on the recom-mendation of the Advisory Council, estab-lished the National Research and Develop-ment Policies and Priorities AssessmentProgram in 1975. The R&D Program exam-ines a variety of issues and factors relating toscientific and technological research, as well asthe role of Congress regarding decisions on

R&D and applications of science and technol-ogy. This includes consideration of theinstitutions and methods for establishingR&D policies and priorities, as well as for eval-uating their substantive content. The Advi-sory Council has created a steering committee,including some of its own members, to guidethe OTA R&D activities.

The R&D Program is directed toward ful-filling, in part, the congressional mandate, asexpressed in the Technology Assessment Actof 1972, for OTA to provide early warnings ofthe impacts of technology. It is intended toassist the Congress in moving toward a capa-bility for long-range planning,

In addition, the Program serves as a diverseand important resource for other OTA pro-gram areas. The Energy and Food Programs, inparticular, have projects under way exam-ining the role of the Federal Government insponsoring R&D.

With continuing guidance from and over-sight by the Advisory Council, the R&DProgram has identified three areas for detailedstudy:

● The health of the scientific and technolog-ical enterprise.

● The application of science and technology.● The decisionmaking process for establish-

ing R&D policies and priorities.

The projects in each of these areas are quitediverse, yet closely interrelated. They areintended to be of a continuing or long-termnature. The projects form a comprehensiveanalysis of the policies and programs of theFederal Government in sponsoring R&D.

Beginning in 1975, advisory panels wereselected and assembled for each of the threeareas. As with the areas and the projects ineach, the work of the panels is closely interre-lated, The 50 persons on these three panelsrepresent a broad array of interests and exper-tise. The panels met three times each during1976 to define the issues, suggest specific

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projects for study, and approve agendas andplans for action in 1977.

The three panels and their projects are:

Health of the Scientific andTechnological Enterprise

Many observers argue that the state ofscientific and technical research in the UnitedStates has declined in recent years, leading topossibly harmful consequences for the U.S.economy and world trade position. This panelis studying scientific and technologicalresearch as a system and is seeking means todefine and assess, as well as options to main-tain, its health. It is examining recent devel-opments affecting R&D, including the lev-eling off of funding and the aging of researchprograms at universities and research institu-tions. Emphasis is being given to the impact ofdifferent means of coupling research andeducation in science and engineering.

Four major projects are underway in thisarea. They are: (1) the formulation of defini-tion of the scientific and technical enterpriseand criteria for assessing its health; (2) anassessment of the status of basic research andadvanced training in science and engineeringassociated with our academic institutions; (3)an examination of the role of women andminorities in science and engineering and therelationship of this issue to the health of thescientific and technical enterprise; and (4) anevaluation of how to determine the relativeemphasis that might be given to variousscientific fields, how to facilitate the emer-gence of significant new fields, and how toassure the quality of effort.

This panel is concerned with maximizing theaccessible talent in scientific fields. Anothertopic which the panel is focusing on is therelationship between Government, univer-sit y, industrial, and national research laborato-ries and the distinctive roles of each in thescientific and technical enterprise.

Because of the broad nature of these proj-ects, the other two areas of the R&D Programare expected to rely heavily on this panel’sconceptualization of the scientific and techni-cal enterprise.

Applications of Science and Technology

The end result of much research consists ofproducts, mechanisms, or procedures that helpto generate innovation. The applications panelis studying the process by which the results ofresearch become applied to national or socialneeds or goals. This panel is pursuing work onthree projects: the role of the Federal Govern-ment in affecting an innovation process, theinternational transfer of technology, and themobilization of scientific and technologicalresources to solve national needs.

The first project involves issues regardingthe appropriate role for the Federal Govern-ment and the mechanisms by which it pursues,stimulates, and regulates technological inno-vation. In particular, the factors that caninfluence the innovative process are being ex-amined. One aspect of the project is comparinggovernmental activities in the United Stateswith those of other countries in terms of theireffects on all aspects of technological innova-tion, including R&D. Key laws and Govern-ment practices that can affect innovation arebeing identified.

Second, the issues relating to technologyand mechanisms by which it is transferred inthe international economic marketplace arebeing evaluated. Particular attention is beinggiven to issues concerning the role of the Gov-ernment in assisting the transfer of technol-ogy to developing countries.

Finally, insofar as scientific and technologi-c a l r e s o u r c e s — b o t h i n d i v i d u a l a n dinstitutional—can be mobilized to meetnational goals and needs, this panel is exam-ining how science and technology have or havenot been effectively used in the past. Inaddition, the range of mechanisms for direct-ing technological resources toward nationalgoals are being analyzed.

Decisionmaking on R&DPolicies & Priorities

The decisionmaking panel is evaluating boththe process by which the Federal Governmentsets R&D policies and priorities and the socialand economic impacts of R&D. It is compiling

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existing knowledge about the decisionmakingprocess, identifying gaps, and appraising theneed for further research. The peer reviewsystem is being evaluated as a decision mecha-nism with particular emphasis on its differentroles in basic and applied research.

This panel began four projects in 1976. Thefirst concerns the development of betterguidelines for Congress in R&D budgeting.

The second project examines the variousoptions by which Federal science and technol-ogy activities might be organized, with partic-ular attention given to proposals to reorganizethe departments and agencies of the FederalGovernment. In this work, the panel is beingassisted by the Congressional Research Serv-ice of the Library of Congress, which isgathering information and cataloging propos-als for reorganization.

A third project seeks to identify means bywhich improvements in methodology for fore-

sight in setting R&D policies and prioritiesmight be accomplished. Finally, the fourthproject is assessing methods for evaluating thesocial and economic impacts of R&D.

Projects for All Three Advisory Panels

In addition, all three panels are engaged inthree other projects that complement thoselisted above. One examines the role,management, and structure of the nationalresearch laboratories and centers, as well astheir deployment, their possibilities, and prob-lems. Another is evaluating the societal signifi-cance of choosing among alternative technolo-gies which fit the needs of specific user groups.The third assesses current and possible roles ofthe public in the decisionmaking processes inscience and technology as well as the impactsof science and technology on the developmentof public policy.

Technology and World Trade Assessment Program

The relationship of technology to interna-tional trade on the one hand and the U.S.economy on the other has become a subject ofincreasing congressional interest. Manyobservers believe that the U.S. economy andbalance of trade position have suffered fromthe export of technology, as well as frominvestment by U.S. companies in foreignindustry.

Analyses are cited showing a declining tradesurplus in recent years in such technology-intensive industries as chemicals, scientificinstruments and controls, nonelectric machin-ery, and transportation. This decrease hasbeen accompanied by a decline in the growth ofboth labor and capital productivity in the Unit-ed States for the years 1965-73.

A number of factors are said to have contrib-uted to this decline in U.S. technologicalleadership in international trade. The factorsinclude reduced expenditure on research anddevelopment in the United States, sale oflicenses and transfer of manufacturing know-how to other countries, and Government

policies that are not conducive to industrialinnovation or research and development.

Others, however, argue that the UnitedStates can remain economically healthy andcompetitive in the international market only

through an open trade policy that encouragesinnovation and the continuous creation of newtechnology. This position holds that produc-tivity figures do not show any precipitousdecline—only cyclical swings. The adversetrade trends are attributed to price rather thanany comparative decline in technological lead-ership, as evidenced by an increased tradebalance for the same technology-intensiveindustries since 1973.

The critics of the assumption of decliningtechnological competitiveness due to theexport of U.S. technology argue that if techno-logical innovation is successfully fostered inthe United States, trade statistics will take careof themselves without Government interven-tion. In other words, the United States shouldstimulate technological innovation at homerather than attempt to control the export of

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technology to prevent other nations f romcatching up.

To address such issues and to provide afactual base from which accurate evaluationscan be made, OTA created the Technology andWorld Trade Assessment Program in 1976.This program focuses on key issues andassumptions relating to the technological rela-tionships of the United States and its tradingpartners abroad. The assessments examine therelationship of technology to the competitiveposition of the United States in internationalmarkets and the related effects on the U.S.economy.

The nature of technology and the processesby which it is developed, introduced in themarketplace, and transferred or diffuseddepends on many factors that generally arepoorly understood. These include: the size andsophistication of the market, economic condi-tions, quality and level of R&D, quality of thelabor force, availability and cost of capital, andGovernment tax, patent, antitrust, and a hostof other policies.

Given the uncertainties about the nature oftechnological development and its relationshipto world trade, the lack of data in general, andthe specific lack of data on the relationship oftechnology to trade, OTA is examining theU.S. trading position as reflected in analyses oftrade, productivity, and related statistics.Among the factors being examined are thecontrol of technological relations, trade withthe Soviet Union, and the promotion of a moresatisfactory means for technology transfer todeveloping nations.

OTA has consulted widely and is tapping theresources of other Federal executive agenciesand private institutions with responsibility foror interest in technology and trade. Theseinclude the General Accounting Office,National Science Foundation, the Depart-ments of State and Commerce, the Export-Import Bank, and the National Academies ofSciences and Engineering.

During 1976, the Technology and WorldTrade Program explored the background of

the problem, sorted out the issues, andadopted an initial strategy for action in 1977.The Technology and World Trade AdvisoryCommittee met for the first time in December.Further, arrangements were made for adding afull-time program manager, a retired vicepresident of a major chemical company, earlyin 1977. The part-time manager for 1976, aformer director for international scientific andtechnological affairs at the State Department,will become a consultant to the program in1 9 7 7 .

One project is assessing the state of technol-ogy and trade trends in selected industries thatare technology intensive and figure promi-nently in world trade. The chemical industryhas been chosen as the target for first study bythe Advisory Committee, One longstandingtrend—the cross-licensing of technology tosupport both foreign subsidiary and domesticmarkets—is being examined to determine howrepatriating funds affect the U.S. balance oftrade. Using such data, OTA is analyzing thecauses of growth and decline in exports. Laterstudies will be conducted on the steel andelectronics industries,

In addition, five functional studies areunderway: 1) a comparison of productivity andeconomic growth rates among leadingmember nations of the Organization for Eco-nomic Cooperation and Development(OECD); 2) an examination of current accounttrends in recent years, with special emphasison trade figures for advance technology prod-ucts; 3) a comparison of technological innova-tion in several different countries; 4) an eval-uation of patterns of technology transferamong OECD countries; and 5) an analysis ofR&D trends in different countries.

Finally, the Technology and World TradeProgram is drawing on the resources of anddeveloping joint areas of concern with theFood, Materials, and Research and Devel-opment Programs of OTA. As experience isgained and data gathered, these and otherprogram areas are expected to make similaruses of the Technology and World TradeProgram.

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Transportation Program

To assist Congress in its deliberations ontransportation issues, the OTA Transporta-tion Program examines the safety, economic,social, energy, and environmental implicationsof moving people and goods.

Following up the 1975 studies of the rela-tionship of mass transit and automated guide-way transit systems to energy and the econ-omy, OTA completed two reports in 1976 onpublic transit in urban areas. The first con-cerned the role of the Federal Government inassisting and encouraging community plan-ning for mass transit, while the secondassessed various automatic control systemsfor rapid transit trains. The TransportationProgram began a major assessment of poten-tial short- and long-term changes in the char-acteristics and use of the automobile as a modeof personal transportation. Another planningstudy, begun late in 1976, looks at the researchand demonstration methods for new urbantransit vehicles.

Continuing a series of reports to Congressbegun in 1975 on the status of U.S. railroadsand proposals directed toward their reorgani-zation and improved efficiency, OTA is assess-ing the effectiveness of various laws inincreasing the safety of railroads. Anotherproject is analyzing the possible use and poten-tial effects of slurry pipelines to transport coal.

For most of 1976, the Transportation Pro--g r a m i n c l u d e d a p r o j e c t e x a m i n i n gtelecommunications technologies for themovement of information. A preliminaryreport published in April 1976 examined thefeasibility of applying communications tech-nologies to provide community services inrural areas. During the summer, this projectwas transferred to OTA’s Exploratory Activ-ity. An OTA workshop was held in Novemberto further explore the Federal executive role inthe possible provision of telecommunicationsservices.

Because s e v e r a l p r o j e c t s o f t h eTransportation Program deal with concernsthat are broader than transportation alone,there is a need for coordination with other

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OTA program areas. For example, the recentlycompleted assessment of community planningfor mass transit and the current assessment ofthe automobile have involved cooperationwith the OTA Energy Program. Similarly, thecoal slurry pipelines project is being per-formed with the assistance of the Energy andMaterials Programs.

Community Planning for Mass Transit

This multivolume report, published in Feb-ruary 1976, was based on a study of masstransit planning in nine U.S. cities: Atlanta,Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles,Minneapolis-St. Paul, San Francisco, Seattle,and Washington, D.C. The report is made upof separate volumes—consisting of a summa-ry, the nine case studies, and technical and bib-liographical appendixes. (Excerpts from thisreport may be found in section II.)

Requested by the Senate Committee onAppropriations, the interim findings of theassessment were transmitted to the Transpor-tation Subcommittee in 1975 to prepare forcongressional hearings. They were used by theTransportation Subcommittee to critique themass transit investment policy of the Depart-ment of Transportation. The report is beingused on a continuing basis by the requestingand other committees with transportationoversight to evaluate mass transit planningand development programs.

Automatic Train Control

The OTA report, published in May 1976,was requested by the Senate Committee onAppropriations on behalf of its TransportationSubcommittee. Used by the House Committeeon the District of Columbia in 1975 as back-ground for oversight hearings on the Wash-ington METRO System, the report has beenwidely distributed to, and reprinted by, thetransportation industry. (Excerpts from thisreport may be found in section 11. )

Broadband Communicationsin Rural Areas

This report, published in April 1976, beganas a preliminary effort to a more detailedstudy. The report was circulated by the Sen-ate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry tothe principal Federal agencies with responsibil-ity for communications and/or rural areas,Many of these responded in favor of furtherexamination of the potential of such systems.The chairman of the Federal CommunicationCommission, for instance, termed the report“a valuable service by encouraging asystematicbroadbandthis report

and comprehensive look at ruralcommunications.” (Excerpts frommay be found in section II. )

Changes in Useand Characteristics of Automobiles

The private automobile has become themost prevalent form of transportation in theUnited States. By 1970, 80 percent of Ameri-can households owned at least one car, andmore than 90 percent of the annual passengermiles traveled were by automobile. At thesame time, serious questions have emergedregarding the future of the private auto. Theseinclude decline in the supply of petroleum,increased costs for materials and labor, risingenvironmental concerns, and widespread traf-fic congestion on highways and urban streets.

Consequently, OTA has undertaken a majorassessment of potential changes in the use andcharacteristics of automobiles over the shortterm (next decade) and long term (into thenext century). This assessment, initiated at therequest of the Senate Committee on Com-merce, was approved by the OTA Board inFebruary 1976 after review of the results of apreliminary planning study carried out by theTransportation Program staff in late 1975.The project examines the auto and supportingindustries, road building and management,consumer ownership and use of cars, and therole of the Federal Government.

Such factors as the future availability offuels and materials, the need to reduce harm-ful pollutants and to improve the safety of

cars, and possible shifts in public attitudes arebeing analyzed in connection with public policyalternatives which might affect automobilesand their use. The experience of several for-eign countries with their transportation sys-tems is being examined for solutions thatcould possibly be applied to problems in theUnited States,

The assessment is being performed by theTransportation Program staff with assistancefrom the Energy and Materials Programs andthe cooperation of the National Science Foun-dation. A preliminary report was expected inlate 1977 and a final report in late 1978.

Coal Slurry Pipelines

For many years, coal was replaced by otherless expensive and cleaner fuels. With theincreased price and uncertain availability ofother fuels, however, coal is once again seen bymany as an abundant and relatively cheapsource of energy.

In view of this, and of alternative proposalsfor shipping large quantities of coal over longdistances, OTA is assessing the use of slurrypipelines to transport coal from its source towhere it can be used. In this project, particularemphasis is being given to two key elements ofconcern: the environmental effects of suchpipelines and their impacts on other forms oftransportation, especially railroads.

The assessment was requested by the Sen-ate Committees on Commerce and Interiorand Insular Affairs, and the House Committeeon Interstate and Foreign Commerce. It wasdue to be completed in 1977.

Therecenttional,roads.

Railway Safety

Federal Government has attempted, inyears, to solve the financial, institu-and operational problems of U.S. rail-OTA examined the financial aspects of

the reorganization of rail transportation in aseries of reports published in 1975. In passingthe Railroad Safety Authorization Act of 1976,Congress required OTA to evaluate the effec-

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96-016 Cl -77 . 5

tiveness of the Railroad Safety Act of 1970 and ally mandated assessments. The other man-other Federal laws aimed at improving the dated assessment concerns coal leasing onsafety practices and performance of the rail- Federal lands. A report was expected in earlyroads. This is one of OTA’s two congression- 1978.

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