sector outlook: retail latam - gbmhomebroker · 2019-07-16 · (bodega surtimax)—which serves 45%...

Sector Outlook: RETAIL LatAm

June 2013

GBM Grupo Bursátil Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. Casa de Bolsa (“GBM”) and its affiliates, may carryout and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making their investment decision. These materials do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to the last page of this report for Important Disclosures.

Luis R. Willard

[email protected]

+52(55) 5480 5886

Bernardo Vélez

[email protected]

+52(55) 5480 5800 ext. 4240

Francisco Maluenda

[email protected]

+56 (2) 6169800 ext.842

Sector Outlook

A disappointing start of the year in terms of economic growth in most

of the LatAm markets appears to be weighing on most of our Retail

sample’ s figures. Long-term perspectives remain unchanged; yet,

valuations appear to be discounting most of the LT positive view, while

being almost alien to short-term impacts, at least in Mexico. As for the

rest of LatAm, we remain optimistic on Colombia’ s growth and Chile’ s

fundamentals, but wary about Argentina’ s need for a Peso

devaluation.

Mexico As we have commented in previous documents, the consumption story in Mexico has lured investors and driven most of the names within our domestic Retail sample to reach historically-high valuations, most of them overpricing the expected good news, in our view. Furthermore, the strong economic dynamism observed since ’ 12 faced an abrupt rough patch in 1Q13, due to transitory effects—both domestically and globally—that ended up affecting the consumption dynamism: ANTAD’ s sales registered 0.6% growth YTD as of May—self-service diminished 0.6%, actually—consumer confidence retreated roughly 5 pts since peaking in January, etc. Overall, although we are expecting the country’ s faster economic growth to resume in the second half of the year, and later spur our consumption sample, we continue to believe that most of the names within are pricing non-realistic scenarios, especially among our self-service sample. As we can see in the following graph, the positive economic prospects of the LatAm region as a whole have driven valuations across most of the retail names to trade above their long-term averages.

Retail sample comparison across countries.

*Source: GBM. Retail in Mexico has broadly decoupled from the IPC’ s correction. After reaching maximum levels by the end of ’ 12, the domestic market has experienced a strong correction since (the Mexbol is down 9.3% YTD). Still, our domestic retail sample has decoupled from said performance (-5.0% YTD; self-service ex-WALMEX is marginally down 3.2% YTD), despite a worse than expected performance in 1H13. Overall, as the positive fundamentals behind the sample—underpenetration, increase in households’ income, low penetration of consumer credit, etc.—remain unchanged from the long-term standpoint (along with the allure of participating in the industry, in our view), the following 12M still pose

MEXICO

REST OF MX RETAIL

MEXICO SELF SERVICE

CHILE

EUROPE

REST OF LATAM US

BRAZIL

ASIA

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Standard Deviations from 5-year average EV/EBITDA

GBM Grupo Bursátil Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. Casa de Bolsa (“GBM”) and its affiliates may carryout and seek to do business with companies covered in its research

reports. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making their investment decision. These materials do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any

security or participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to the last page of this report for Important Disclosures.

Sector Outlook

June 2013

2

some challenges which our sample appears not to be fully pricing in. Why are we negative on Mexico’ s self-service segment? As we previously commented, the worst performing sector within the industry has been the self-service companies in terms of sales growth. We believe that this could come as a consequence of a more wary consumer—as explained by the drop in the consumer confidence indicator—that has partially shifted its daily purchases back to the traditional channel. The only figure that could help us confirm that hypothesis—besides the decaying traffic figures in most names (i.e. WALMEX, SORIANA, and CHDRAUI)—is that sales within grocery stores in Mexico have grown at a 6.8% rate YTD (vs. ANTAD’ s self-service +3.8% in total sales), according to the National Association of Groceries Wholesalers (ANAM in Spanish). Furthermore, this Association expects to grow its sales in ’ 13 by 8–9%. The story of the under-penetrated industry remains put. Although self-service companies appear to have been losing market share, we continue to believe that the country’ s under-penetration in terms of square meters per capita is poised to diminish and near those of other LatAm countries—i.e. Chile or Brazil—in the coming ten years. Be that as it may—either a loss of market share from the modern channel, or an overall drop in consumption—we believe that in order to regain part of the lost market share, in the short term, self-service companies could be poised to be more aggressive in prices—provided economic activity and government spending return to normal by 2H13—which could end up pressuring the sample’ s margins. Given this specific outlook, we reiterate our Underperformer rating on CHDRAUI and SORIANA, while reiterating our Performer rating on WALMEX, as we deem the latter to be better positioned to be aggressive in prices than the rest of the sample. Furthermore, WALMEX has been able to preserve its gross margins despite price aggressiveness given its leadership position and scale.

Self-Service Gross Mg. vs. SSS performance

*Source: GBM. In sum, although we are negative on the sector, the only name on which we would consider deviating from the neutral stance would be WALMEX (trading below its historic averages in terms of EV/EBITDA and over-punished by a lower prospected organic growth, in our view). Furthermore, the stock is trading at historically low premiums vs. our domestic sample for EV/EBITDA. We believe that this responds more to an overvaluation of the rest of the names in the sample, thus giving way to a natural hedge to cover short positions for the rest of the self-service names in Mexico. WALMEX’ s EV/EBITDA Spread vs. Peers

*Source: GBM. The rest of the sample appears to have more expensive valuations, still…. Although this is true overall, the figure is somewhat distorted by KIMBER’ s 6.0 std. devs. above its historical EV/EBITDA average and ALSEA’ s 3.5 SD above its average. LIVEPOL (+2.5 SD) also shows valuations above its averages; yet, we deem this as not fully comparable, since the stock’ s liquidity has improved,

-100

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

WALMEX Sample Average SSS Spread WMX vs. SSS Sample

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

20.0x

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Jul-

12

Dec

-12

Ma

y-1

3

Spread WALMEX Peers

Average +1 St. Dev. -1 St. Dev.




Sector Outlook

June 2013

3

explaining part of the revaluation of the asset—besides, of course, the company’ s strong fundamentals.

Mexico’ s Retail sample Valuation Map.

*Source: GBM.

-COMERCI

WALMEX

ALSEA

ELEKTRA

FRAGUAGFAMSA

LAB

LIVEPOL

KIMBERCHDRAUI

-2.2

-1.2

-0.2

0.8

1.8

-2.0X -0.5X 1.0X 2.5X 4.0X 5.5X 7.0X

Standard Deviations from 5-year average

SORIANA

Average: 1.65X




Sector Outlook

June 2013

4

What’ s the story in the rest of the LatAm markets? Colombia Despite the marked slowdown in 2H12 experienced by the third most populated country in LatAm, Colombia—which a few years ago showed up as the potential promised land for foreign-based retailers—the economy could be set for recovery; yet, the indicators are not that solid yet. Since 2H12, the country surprised us with a marked slowdown that triggered uninspiring comps across all retail formats; this trend has extended into 1Q13. From this standpoint, our main concern relies on the economy’ s performance ahead, especially how it is expected to recover before consumption boosts the retail industry once again. The Consumer Confidence Index* in Colombia is set to rebound; an augury for potential recovery. After a marked deterioration in the consumer sentiment witnessed since last December—which reached its lowest level last March scoring only 14.8 points (the 0-point threshold being the value that differentiates the optimistic and pessimistic perception)—last April’ s reading encouraged us when it jumped to 23.7 points—marking the highest figure in five months and counteracting market expectations. Furthermore, economic consensus still shows a 4.3% increment in private spending in ’ 13, yet we do not rule out further downward revisions.

Consumer Confidence Index

*Source: GBM.

Retail SSS performance

*Source: GBM.*We should point out that this index elaborated by Fedesarrollo is a good predictor of final household spending, as it has a 0.84 correlation with households' final consumption Figure reported by the National Statistical Institute in Colombia. A glimpse ahead to Colombia’ s retailing The arrival of foreign competition set to distress the market leader’ s segmentation in the self-service industry. We believe that EXITO, still the indisputable market leader, must try out is three-tiered brand strategy to cater to 6 socioeconomic levels in a more challenging atmosphere. With the arrival of CENCOSUD—operating under the Jumbo and Metro brands—as well as Portuguese food retailer Ara, we deem it more probable for some customers to flow out of EXITO’ s stores. After Carrefour’ s buyout, CENCOSUD decided to launch the Jumbo and Metro brands, striving towards its commitment to regain store traffic by improving customer service and in-store offer. In addition, a fiercer environment may arise—chiefly in the coffee region—as Jeronimo Martins will focus its target on cash-strapped shoppers under the Ara format, directly competing against EXITO’ s convenience format (Bodega Surtimax)—which serves 45% of the Colombian population, representing the lower income levels. It is noteworthy that the Portuguese-based grocer has broad experience in emerging markets with a strong presence in low-price segments. Temporary regulation enacted early this year on clothing retailing should pressure D-store chains in the last tranche of ‘ 13. Following the approval of the 0074 decree—which has a 1-year duration starting from last




Sector Outlook

June 2013

5

March 1st—new tariff regulations for imported textile and footwear items were set. Particularly, the bill imposes a new tariff of 10% on the value of the imported merchandise, plus a specific tariff of US$5 per kilo of gross imported products in the case of apparel, and US$5 for each pair of shoes imported, thus replacing the previous 15% over the value of the total imports. So far, retailers and Colombian authorities are working on an alternative proposal. In the case of FALABELLA and RIPLEY, they have commented that depending on the competitors’ actions, the most probable scenario is to raise prices, thus hurting consumers’ pent-up demand, expected to be seen by yearend. In doing so, we might expect that retail sales recovery could remain pressured in the short run, especially in the department store segment. CHILE Moving on to Chile, over the last quarters, we have seen a mixed performance regarding retail sales. On the one hand, the retail sales index has shown a positive performance in the overall market driven by the population’ s increasing purchasing power, explained by close to full employment levels and rising real wages. Nonetheless, most retailers’ like-to-like sales have substantially lagged Chilean retail sales reported by the National Chamber of Commerce, and in some cases, have fallen onto negative ground. The paradox of D-store chains’ same-store performance mismatching macro-level indicators. As we stated before, there is a noticeable difference between corporate and industry results. If we delve into retail sales for the metropolitan region—which accounts for approximately half of Chile’ s population—it is quite clear that soft-lines and appliances were the best performing segments throughout last year and during 1Q13 (posting double-digit advances on a YOY basis). However, these seem not to be boosting in-store sales. Even though we lack traffic information in almost every retailer, this trend led us to maintain our thesis that SSS readings are mostly supported by higher average tickets, as tougher competition rapidly expanding across the country is driving customers out of the stores. As such, we maintain a conservative stance for the coming quarters with forecasts of low to mid- single digit growth rates for comparable sales.

Chile’ s Retail sales per segment 1Q13

*Source: GBM.

Chile’ s Retail sales per company for 1Q13

*Source: GBM. ARGENTINA When in the mid ’ 90s the modern supermarket expansion took place with the entry of US-based Wal-Mart, the chain implemented a low food prices strategy aimed to capture market share from other large international operators, namely Carrefour. The latter was also characterized by its low prices and aggressive promotional campaigns. From that time on, the self-service industry experienced considerable competitive pressure that hindered operating margins which, in the current scenario, is likely to remain in the foreseeable future. Argentina continues to be retailers’ tight spot as hyperinflation has gripped the country, whereas groceries’ price freeze is a wrong-headed attempt to halt consumer prices. Undoubtedly, the Argentinean retail environment has turned quite challenging for

-4.2%

-1.9%

-3.0%

8.3%

1.2%

8.5%

30.9%

18.7%

8.2%

-15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35%

Perishables

Groceries

Supermarkets

Furniture

Home line

Appliances

Footwear

Apparel

Commerce




Sector Outlook

June 2013

6

companies as the government measures to ease the impact of double-digit inflation figures on household spending—by setting grocery prices among the main self-service chains—will start to hurt their profitability from 2Q13 onwards. The government agreement reached with the nation’ s largest supermarkets—including CENCOSUD’ s Jumbo, Disco, and Vea brands—to freeze prices of a 500-product list will imply margin contractions as suppliers will be able to raise their prices backed by rising labor costs. According to CENCOSUD’ s estimations, this third round of price freezes, which will last 60 days—limited to a basket of fast-moving basic products—represents less than 2% of the firm’ s total sales in Argentina. We remain skeptical about the temporality of these price controls. Given that inflation devaluates the currency, thus outstripping wage growth, the government’ s efforts might be oriented towards maintaining price controls throughout the rest of the year amid spiraling inflation pressures in a futile attempt to preserve shoppers’ real incomes. Lastly, unchecked inflation readings have prompted labor unions to demand wage increases, which have been partially reflected on the company’ s operating results. In addition, Cristina Fernandez’ mismanagement to protect the country’ s savings from inflation has also translated into the restriction of the capital outflows since late ’ 11. Overall, Argentina’ s policies have increased the political and economic risks, hence driving investors out of the country. Implications of Argentinean currency devaluation. Given that CENCOSUD has a significant exposure to Argentina (~30% of its consolidated EBITDA), we conducted an exercise to assess the effect of this event on the company’ s valuation. We considered the historical real exchange rate based on a settlement rate (converting ARS-denominated transactions to USD through a listed company with ADRs), which yield a spot exchange rate of ARS$8.3 (vs. the official ARS$5.3). Considering this method, we calculated our 1-year historical series and then proceeded to estimate the 12M FWD multiple for CENCOSUD—taking into account a decrease in EBITDA as a result of the devaluation (from ARS$8.3 to ARS$10).

12M FWD EV/EBITDA multiples: FALABELLA and CENCOSUD (adjusted spread and multiples considering Argentina’ s devaluation)

In this scenario, CENCOSUD’ s valuation looks unattractive, going from 12.1x to 14.4x EV/EBITDA '13e, while for FALABELLA the impact is minimal (only 3% of EBITDA comes from Argentina). Devaluating the Argentinean peso, the FALABELLA/CENCOSUD spreadtightens, yet it is still above its average. Adjusted Spread: FALABELLA/CENCOSUD 12M FWD EV/EBITDA (considers Argentina’ s currency devaluation)

*Source: GBM.

GBM Grupo Bursátil Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. Casa de Bolsa (“GBM”) and its affiliates may carryout and seek to do business with companies covered in

its research reports. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making their investment decision. These materials do not constitute

an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to the last page of this report for Important Disclosures. 7

Sector Outlook

June 2013

MEXICO RETAIL SECTOR OVERVIEW

JOB CREATION & UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (IMSS)

*Source: STPS

*Source: STPS

CONSUMPTION OPPORTUNITY CONSUMER CREDIT

*Source: INEGI *Source: CNBV

12-MONTH REMITTANCES

*Source: BM

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

jan

-10

jul-

10

jan

-11

jul-

11

ene-

12

jul-

12

ene-

13

2010 2011 2012 2013 Unemployment rate

+732K +612K +722K +285K

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

12,400

12,800

13,200

13,600

14,000

14,400

14,800

15,200

15,600

16,000

16,400

16,800

jan

-09

ap

r-0

9

jul-

09

oct

-09

jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

jul-

10

oct

-10

jan

-11

ap

r-1

1

jul-

11

oct

-11

ene-

12

ab

r-1

2

jul-

12

oct

-12

ene-

13

ab

r-1

3

Employment YOY Change

70

80

90

100

110

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Consumer Confidence Retail Sales Payroll

-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

440,000

460,000

480,000

jan

-09

ap

r-0

9

jul-

09

oct

-09

jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

jul-

10

oct

-10

jan

-11

ap

r-1

1

jul-

11

oct

-11

en

e-1

2

ab

r-1

2

jul-

12

oct

-12

en

e-1

3

ab

r-1

3

12M Avg. YOY Chg. Retail Sales

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

02

/09

05

/09

08

/09

11

/09

02

/10

05

/10

08

/10

11

/10

02

/11

05

/11

08

/11

11

/11

02

/12

05

/12

08

/12

11

/12

02

/13

05

/13

12M Remittances YOY Chg.




Sector Outlook

June 2013

TTM TOTAL SALES TTM SSS

*Source: ANTAD & WALMEX *Source: ANTAD & WALMEX

SELF-SERVICE TOTAL SALES GROWTH

SELF-SERVICE SSS GROWTH

*Source: GBM with companies’ data. *Source: GBM with companies’ data.

TTM SSS BY TYPE OF STORE

TTM SSS BY PRODUCT LINE

*Source: ANTAD *Source: ANTAD

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

ene-

09

jul-

09

ene-

10

jul-

10

ene-

11

jul-

11

ene-

12

jul-

12

ene-

13

Antad Walmex

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

ene-

09

jul-

09

ene-

10

jul-

10

ene-

11

jul-

11

ene-

12

jul-

12

ene-

13

Antad Walmex

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

WALMEX SORIANA COMERCI CHDRAUI FRAGUA

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

WALMEX SORIANA COMERCI OXXO CHDRAUI FRAGUA

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

ene-

08

jul-

08

ene-

09

jul-

09

ene-

10

jul-

10

ene-

11

jul-

11

ene-

12

jul-

12

ene-

13

Self-service Department Specialized

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

dic

-07

jun

-08

dic

-08

jun

-09

dic

-09

jun

-10

dic

-10

jun

-11

dic

-11

jun

-12

dic

-12

Food Softlines Hardlines




Sector Outlook

June 2013

BREAKDOWNS

SALES TTM 1Q13 TOTAL: P$880 BILLION EBITDA TTM 1Q13 TOTAL: P$88.5 BILLION

*Source: GBM with Companies’ data. *Source: GBM with Companies’ data.

MKT. SHARE (SQUARE MTS.) TOTAL: 15,961,629

MARKET CAP TOTAL: P$1.3 TRILLION

*Source: GBM with Companies’ data *Excluding ALSEA since the company only discloses the number of units.

*Source: GBM with Companies’ data.

Alsea2%

Fragua3% Gfamsa

2%

Chdraui6%

Comerci5%

Elektra8%

Soriana12%

Livepol8%

Walmex48%

Gigante2%

Gsanbor4%

Alsea2%

Fragua2%

Gfamsa2%

Chdraui4%

Comerci4%

Elektra10%

Soriana8%

Livepol13%

Walmex44%

Gigante3%

Gsanbor6%

Fragua3% Gfamsa

3%Chdraui

7%

Comerci8%

Elektra8%

Soriana20%

Livepol8%

Walmex35%

Gigante2%

Gsanbor6%

Alsea1%

Comerci4%

Gfamsa2%

Fragua2%

Soriana8%

Elektra9%

Chdraui4%

Livepol16%

Walmex62%

Gigante2%

Gsanbor5%




Sector Outlook

June 2013

PRICE PERFORMANCE – SELF SERVICE

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

06

/12

08

/12

10

/12

12

/12

02

/13

04

/13

06

/13

CHDRAUI COMERCI WALMEX

SORIANA IPC

Price as of Market20/jun/2013 Cap. ** 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months YTD

CHDRAUI 44.5 42,855.8 -5.8% 8.2% 6.9% 28.2% 5.9%

COMERCI 46.2 50,118.9 0.7% 4.8% 1.5% 65.9% 1.9%

WALMEX 34.7 614,108.9 -3.8% -10.0% -17.5% -4.9% -18.1%

SORIANA 44.5 80,100.0 -8.0% -6.2% -10.0% 17.1% -9.7%

IPC 37517.2 4,591,638,111.6* -7.5% -12.1% -14.0% -3.7% -14.2%

**Millions of pesos *Total Mkt. Cap for the BMV

% CHANGE




Sector Outlook

June 2013

PRICE PERFORMANCE – SPECIALIZED

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

06

/12

08

/12

10

/12

12

/12

02

/13

04

/13

06

/13

ALSEA ELEKTRA FRAGUA GFAMSA

KIMBER LIVEPOL LAB IPC

Price as of Market20/jun/2013 Cap. ** 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months YTD

ALSEA 30.1 20,708.4 -11.0% -6.9% 20.3% 77.3% 16.8%

ELEKTRA 424.0 100,573.0 -8.0% -13.7% -24.2% -19.6% -23.0%

FRAGUA 239.9 23,601.1 4.3% 9.0% 6.6% 11.6% 6.6%

GFAMSA 21.2 9,288.8 -6.5% -11.2% 30.9% 75.7% 31.4%

KIMBER 38.6 121,152.4 -6.4% -3.0% 19.8% 49.9% 17.0%

LIVEPOL 149.0 185,907.6 -3.9% 0.7% 10.4% 40.6% 10.4%

LAB 24.2 25,508.1 -11.5% -18.5% -10.9% -3.6% -8.9%

IPC 37517.2 4,591,638,111.6* -7.5% -12.1% -14.0% -3.7% -14.2%

**Millions of pesos *Total Mkt. Cap for the BMV

% CHANGE




Sector Outlook

June 2013

EV/EBITDA to EBITDA Growth

EV/IC to ROIC

ROE to P/BV

ROIC to EV/EBITDA

ALSEA

CHDRAUI

WALMEX

COMERCI

ELEKTRA

FRAGUA

GFAMSA

KIMBER

GSANBOR

LIVEPOL

LABSORIANA

8.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.0

5.0

%

10

.0%

15

.0%

20

.0%

25

.0%

30

.0%

35

.0%

40

.0%

45

.0%

50

.0%

EV

/EB

ITD

A

12M EBITDA GROWTH

328.1695789

CHDRAUI

COMERCI

WALMEX

ELEKTRA

FRAGUA

GFAMSA

KIMBER

GSANBOR

315.7332786 LAB

SORIANA

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

0.0

%

5.0

%

10

.0%

15

.0%

20

.0%

25

.0%

30

.0%

EV

/IC

ROIC

ALSEA

SORIANA COMERCI

WALMEX

-ELEKTRA

FRAGUA

GFAMSA

LIVEPOL LAB

CHDRAUI

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

-40

.0%

-30

.0%

-20

.0%

-10

.0%

0.0

%

10

.0%

20

.0%

30

.0%

40

.0%

P/B

V

ROE

ALSEA

CHDRAUI

COMERCI WALMEX

ELEKTRA

11.88

GFAMSA

KIMBER

GSANBOR

LIVEPOL

LABSORIANA

8.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.015.016.017.0

0.0

%

5.0

%

10

.0%

15

.0%

20

.0%

25

.0%

30

.0%

EV

/EB

ITD

A

ROIC




Sector Outlook

June 2013

ALSEA

CHDRAUI CENCOSUD

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13

Stock Price Performance vs Analyst Estimates

Price Price Target

26/07/2012 19.60 M arket Performer

18/10/2012 22.10 M arket Underperformer





08/01/2013 45.40 M arket Outperformer


19-11-2012 3,104 Market Outperformer04-03-2013 3,180 Market Performer15-04-2013 3,180 Market Outperformer31-05-2013 3,020 Market Outperformer18-06-2013 2,960 Market Outperformer

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

06

-12

07

-12

08

-12

09

-12

10

-12

11

-12

12

-12

01

-13

02

-13

03

-13

04

-13

05

-13

06

-13

Price Target Price




Sector Outlook

June 2013

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

06

-12

07

-12

07

-12

08

-12

09

-12

10

-12

10

-12

11

-12

12

-12

12

-12

01

-13

02

-13

02

-13

03

-13

04

-13

04

-13

05

-13

06

-13

Price Price target

COMERCI

FALABELLA

FRAGUA







25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target

180.0

190.0

200.0

210.0

220.0

230.0

240.0

250.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target



FALABELLA 13-05-2013 6,005 Market Performer




Sector Outlook

June 2013

GFAMSA

GSANBOR LIVEPOL

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target




90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

170.0

190.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target





25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target





Sector Outlook

June 2013

SORIANA

WALMEX

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target





30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jun

-12

Jul-

12

Au

g-1

2

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2

Dec

-12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13


Price Price Target


18/10/2012 42.90 M arket Outperfo rmer







Sector Outlook

June 2013

Other Disclosures: The analyst or analysts involved in the creation of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal opinions and that they have not and will not receive direct or indirect compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. This report has been prepared by GBM and is subject to change without notice. GBM and employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information contained herein. This report is for informational purposes only, based upon publicly available information, which we believed is reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. GBM makes no express or implied representations or warranties that such information is accurate or complete and, therefore, GBM and employees shall not in any way be liable for related claims. The information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal, or investment advice and may not be suitable for your specific circumstances. Each investor shall make their own determination of the suitability of an investment of any securities referred to herein and should consult their own tax, legal, investment, or other advisors, to determine such suitability. This report may discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain countries or states therein and may therefore not be offered to investors in such countries or states. This report or any portion hereof may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold or distributed without the written consent of GBM.

sector outlook: retail latam - gbmhomebroker · 2019-07-16 · (bodega surtimax)—which serves 45%...

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