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Sector Rotation Strategies © Own Mountain Trading Company 2012 1 Jackie Ann Patterson Editor, BackTesting Report

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Sector Rotation Strategies

copy Own Mountain Trading Company 2012 1

Jackie Ann Patterson

Editor BackTesting Report

Required Disclaimers

Trading involves risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

The author actively trades stocks and ETFs She may or may not hold a position

in any instrument discussed

This presentation is for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy

or sell securities

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS UNLIKE

AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL

TRADING ALSO SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE

UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH

AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO

THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN

The computer engineer who back-tests

trading strategies and indicators

Irsquom Jackie Ann Patterson ndash

Editor of BackTesting Report

Shout Out to Fidelity Investments

Funded my back-testing research that became the basis for this presentation

Published article at httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-and-hold-sector-rotation

Disclosure Independent contractor for Fidelity

Sector Rotation How to Get

Respectable Gains with Low Overhead

What does THAT mean

System Design Decisions

Timeframes

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

Example Sector Rotation Trading Plan

5

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Required Disclaimers

Trading involves risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone

The author actively trades stocks and ETFs She may or may not hold a position

in any instrument discussed

This presentation is for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy

or sell securities

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS UNLIKE

AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL

TRADING ALSO SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED THE RESULTS MAY HAVE

UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH

AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO

THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS

BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR

TO THOSE SHOWN

The computer engineer who back-tests

trading strategies and indicators

Irsquom Jackie Ann Patterson ndash

Editor of BackTesting Report

Shout Out to Fidelity Investments

Funded my back-testing research that became the basis for this presentation

Published article at httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-and-hold-sector-rotation

Disclosure Independent contractor for Fidelity

Sector Rotation How to Get

Respectable Gains with Low Overhead

What does THAT mean

System Design Decisions

Timeframes

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

Example Sector Rotation Trading Plan

5

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

The computer engineer who back-tests

trading strategies and indicators

Irsquom Jackie Ann Patterson ndash

Editor of BackTesting Report

Shout Out to Fidelity Investments

Funded my back-testing research that became the basis for this presentation

Published article at httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-and-hold-sector-rotation

Disclosure Independent contractor for Fidelity

Sector Rotation How to Get

Respectable Gains with Low Overhead

What does THAT mean

System Design Decisions

Timeframes

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

Example Sector Rotation Trading Plan

5

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Shout Out to Fidelity Investments

Funded my back-testing research that became the basis for this presentation

Published article at httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-and-hold-sector-rotation

Disclosure Independent contractor for Fidelity

Sector Rotation How to Get

Respectable Gains with Low Overhead

What does THAT mean

System Design Decisions

Timeframes

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

Example Sector Rotation Trading Plan

5

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Sector Rotation How to Get

Respectable Gains with Low Overhead

What does THAT mean

System Design Decisions

Timeframes

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

Example Sector Rotation Trading Plan

5

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Sector Rotation Definitions

GOAL Get in areas of market poised to

deliver best performance

NOT intra-day trading

NOT Buy and Hold

6

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Respectable Gains gt 10 annually

7

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Minimal Overhead

Limited time effort

Limited no commissions

Limited no taxes

(in IRA see your accountant)

8

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Note Differences

9

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

ldquoManagerdquo Risk

Historical drawdowns

Stop loss

10

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 11

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 12

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Time Frame Monthly or Daily

From BackTesting with Wealth Lab Proreg

RSI Rotations worked better DAILY

RoC Rotations worked better MONTHLY

Personally I like to work 1 day per month

13

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 14

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Applicable Markets

SPDR reg Sector ETFs

XLB XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLU XLV XLY

iSharesreg ETFs including

Styles (eg small cap growth to large cap value)

Fixed Income

International

Stocks eg Dow 30

15

SPDR is a registered trademark of SampP Financial Services LLC iShares is a registered trademark of Blackrock

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 16

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Types of Rotation

Follow Economic Cycle thru sector ETFs

httpstockchartscomfreechartsperfhtml5bSE

CT5b

Source Sam Stovallrsquos Chart on StockChartscom

17

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Types of Rotation

Select beaten-down bargain ETFs

18

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Types of Rotation

Select ETFs with highest momentum

19

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

System Design Decisions

Timeframe

Applicable Markets

Types of Rotation

Selection Criteria

copy BackTesting Report 2012 20

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Selection Criteria

KISS

Rank-able and continuously available

Able to back-test

RSI vs RoC

Dividends for Dogs of Dow

21

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Original Back-tests on Wealth-Lab Proreg for 2001 - 2011

SampP Sectors lagged in almost every test

iShares High RoC rocked

Dow Stocks with low RSI more

consistent due to daily trades

LongShort didnrsquot help

22

Wealth Lab Pro is a registered trademark of FMC LLC

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Buy and Hold Baseline

23

Buy amp Hold

Comparison for

12312001 -

12312011

SPDRs 9

Select Sector

ETFs

iShares All

30 Fidelity

Commission-

Free ETFs

Dow - Equal

Weight of 30

Stocks

SampP500 (IVV

iShares ETF

tracking

fund)

Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $60029 $52798 $62063 $30430

Net Profit 600 528 621 304

Annualized Gain 48 43 50 27

Total Commission ($72) ($231) ($239) ($8)

Dividends Received $23684 $21456 $27565 $20377

Number of Trades 9 29 30 1

Win Rate 889 828 600 1000

Maximum Drawdown ($84414) ($79755) ($76261) ($78159)

Sharpe Ratio 039 038 040 025

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

1st Pass Performance Stats

24

Backtest 2001-2011 SPDR Sectors

14-Day RSI iShares High

30- day RoC Dow 30

14-Day RSI

Selection and Sizing 3 lowest 333

each 3 highest

333 each 3 lowest 333

each Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit $122130 $222150 $245147 Net Profit 122 222 245

Annualized Gain 8 12 13 Total Commission ($22220) $0 ($32126)

Dividends Received $32258 $43202 $39059

Number of Trades 1399 162 2022

Average Bars Held 634 465 469

Win Rate 59 62 61

Maximum Drawdown ($88087) ($67605) ($153644)

Sharpe Ratio 055 089 066

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Long Short Not Helpful

25

Long Short on 30-Day RoC

SPDR

Sectors

RoC (LS) iShares RoC

(LS) Dow 30 (LS)

Selection and Sizing for 2

Long and 1 Short 45 each

15 margin 45 each 15

margin 45 each 15

margin Starting Capital $100000 $100000 $100000

Net Profit ($153) $128881 ($25396) Net Profit 0 129 -25

Annualized Gain 0 9 -3 Total Commission ($2759) $0 ($3156)

Dividends Received $8498 $11753 $10969

Number of Trades 175 183 200

Average Bars Held 4312 4128 3786

Win Rate 50 51 48

Maximum Drawdown ($35207) ($42615) ($82881)

Sharpe Ratio 007 072 -002

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Dow 30 Survivorship Bias C and AIG Dropped from Index

26

Ideal Dow Now Real Dow with C AIG

Starting Capital $10000000 $10000000

Net Profit $39482470 $14384800

Net Profit 39482 14385

Annualized Gain 1735 933 Total Commission ($3266655) ($3182385)

Dividends Received $4672826 $3087434

Number of Trades 2056 2003

Average Bars Held 463 473

Win Rate 6060 5806

Maximum Drawdown ($12444149) ($10729636)

Sharpe Ratio 089 047

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

30-Day RoC Not Resilient iShares High RoC Varying Start Dates

27

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Optimizing RoC and Stop Loss For Free iShares Rotation

28

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

RoC Look-Back Period vs Profit iShares High Momentum

29

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Stop Loss vs Profit Wealth-Lab Pro Simulation

30

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Longer RoC More Resilient Bigger Profits Too

31

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

iShares ETFs with Top 2 70-day RoC and 15 Stop

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

What Irsquom Trading Now

Prune commission-free iShares ETFs ACWIACWXAGGDVYEEMEFAEMBHYG

IDVIJHIJJIJKIWBIWDIWFIWMIWNIWOIWVLQDMUBSCZTIP

70-day RoC

Monthly pick top 2 high RoC ETFs

Size 50 each

15 fixed stop loss

32

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Historical Performance of My ETF Rotation System

33

Starting Capital $100000

Net Profit $278688 Net Profit 279

Annualized Gain 14 Total Commission $0

Dividends Received $47823

Number of Trades 81

Average Bars Held 5891

Win Rate 60

Maximum Drawdown ($91590)

Sharpe Ratio 091

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Simulated Equity Curve ETF Rotation vs SampP500 Hold

34

Source Wealth Lab Pro portfolio simulation for 2001-2011

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

ETF Options Rotation Manually Back-Tested Two+ Ways

Covered Calls

Calls as Leveraged Position

Basic Same number of shares with less $$

Aggressive Risk 15 of account on each position

Same basic strategy of

iShares with Top 2 70-day RoC

35

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Options Difficulties

Thinly traded

Huge bidask spread

Sometimes no bid to sell covered calls

Sometimes no options for underlying ETF

Historical data spotty

36

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Options Not Helpful Here

37

$-

$50000

$100000

$150000

$200000

$250000

$300000

$350000

$400000

ETFs Only

Options

Aggressive Options

Covered Calls

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

My Tools

38

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

What It Takes to Succeed With

ETF Rotation Plan

Simple numeric comparison counting

1 hour per month

A little bit of self-discipline

Show up for that hour per month

Enter automatic stop loss orders

Donrsquot mess with positions otherwise

Willingness to sell holdings on cue

Market cooperation

39

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Survey Prize Drawing

Please complete survey to be entered in

drawing

Fill in email address legibly

Check YES or NO to receive more info

40

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com

Thank You For more information seehellip

wwwbacktestingblogcomsignalsetfrotation

Published article at

httpsguidancefidelitycomviewpointsbuy-

and-hold-sector-rotation

41

jackiepback

testingreport

com