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IDSA COMMENTA Year-end Security Review of Southern Asia

Gurmeet Kanwal

December 31, 2013

The year gone by saw both China and Pakistan become militarily more assertie on !ndia"s

borders than eer be#ore in the last decade$ %hile China launched a ma&or incursion into

the D'( sector o# )adakh and took seeral weeks to take the P)* troo+s back across the

)*C, Pakistan re+eatedly iolated the cease#ire agreement and once again ste++ed u+

in#iltration o# terrorists across the )oC to launch strikes in Kashmir a#ter lying low #orseeral years$

To++ing the charts o# the unstable regional security enironment in -outhern *sia is

*#ghanistan"s endless con#lict$The +resent situation can be characterised as a stalemate at

the strategic and the tactical leels$ This will continue with the Taliban and the *#ghan

.*T(!-*/ #orces alternately gaining local ascendancy #or short durations in the core

+roinces o# elmand, ar&a and Kandahar$ The *#ghan .ational *rmy is still many yearsaway #rom achieing the +ro#essional standards necessary to manage security on its own$

!t will, there#ore, be di##icult #or the .*T(!-*/ #orces to conduct a res+onsible

drawdown o# troo+s in 201$ The - #orces are likely to continue to launch drone strikes

in Pakistan against e4tremists sheltering in the KhyberPakhtoonkhwa and /*T* areas

des+ite the aderse di+lomatic #allout$ * gradual dri#t into ciil war a++ears to be the most

likely outcome$

Pakistan"s hal#hearted struggle against the remnants o# the al 5aeda and the home grown

Taliban like the TTP and the T.-, #issi+arous tendencies in 'aluchistan, continuing

radical e4tremism and cree+ing Talibanisation in the heartland, the tentatie counter

terrorism ste+s o# the new ciilian goernment, the #loundering economy and,

conse6uently, the nation"s gradual slide towards becoming a 7#ailed state", +ose a ma&or

security challenge #or the region$ nless the Pakistan army gies u+ its idiosyncratic notions

o# seeking strategic de+th in *#ghanistan and #uelling terrorism in !ndia and concentrates

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instead on #ighting all arieties o# Taliban that are threatening the cohesion o# the state, the

eentual breaku+ o# Pakistan may be ineitable$

-ri )anka"s inability to #ind a lasting solution to its ethnic +roblems des+ite the

com+rehensie de#eat o# the )iberation Tigers o# Tamil 8elam has serious re+ercussions

#or stability in the island nation$ Des+ite the election o# a ciilian goernment, the gradual

resurgence o# the )TT8 remains likely as the core issue o# autonomy has not been

addressed$ The rising tide o# !slamist #undamentalist terrorism in 'angladesh, een as it

struggles #or economic u+li#tment to subsistence leels, could trigger new #orces o#

destruction i# le#t unchecked$ uch will de+end on which +arty emerges as the largest a#ter

the elections scheduled in 9anuary 201$

The aoist ascendancy in .e+al and its aderse im+act on .e+al"s #ledgling democracy,

as also .e+al"s new#ound inclination to seek neutrality between !ndia and China, are a blow

to what has historically been a stable !ndia.e+al relationshi+$ -immering discontentment

is gathering momentum in Tibet and :in&iang against China"s re+ressie regime and could

result in an o+en reolt$ The +eo+les" nascent moement #or democracy in yanmar and

seeral long #estering insurgencies may destabilise the military 9unta des+ite its +ost

election con#idence$ The moement #or democracy could turn iolent i# the ruling 9unta

continues to deny its citi;ens basic human rights$ The s+illoer o# religious e4tremism and

terrorism #rom *#ghanistan and +olitical instability in the C*

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Though the central goernment"s cease#ire with the .agas has now held #or oer a decade

een while internecine 6uarrels among the .agas hae continued unabated, +rogress in

negotiations with both the !ssakuiah and the Kha+lang #actions o# the .-C. has been

rather limited$ The )/* in *ssam has begun negotiations with the central goernment

without any +reconditions e4ce+t #or the breakaway military wing led by Paresh 'arua,

who is said to be taking shelter in yanmar and is getting coert su++ort #rom the Chinese$

'esides Central and -tate goernment +aramilitary and +olice #orces, the !ndian army has

been de+loyed in large numbers to gain control oer internal u+risings, most o# which are

su++orted, s+onsored and militarily aided by inimical #oreign +owers, es+ecially the

Pakistan army and !-!$ oweer, !ndia"s #ightback is ha+ha;ard and lacks coherence, both

in the #ormulation o# a com+rehensie internal security strategy and its success#ul

e4ecution$ The ac6uisition and dissemination o# intelligence #or +reenting terrorist strikesare also +atently #lawed$

!ndia"s standing as a regional +ower that has global +ower ambitions and as+ires to a

+ermanent seat on the . -ecurity Council has been seriously com+romised by its inability

to success#ully manage ongoing internal con#licts and e4ternal con#licts in its

neighbourhood, singly or in concert with its strategic +artners$ !n #act, the situation in

*#ghanistan and Pakistan could deteriorate beyond the ability o# the internationalcommunity to control$ These con#licts are undermining -outhern *sia"s e##orts towards

socioeconomic deelo+ment and +oerty alleiation by ham+ering goernance and

itiating the inestment climate$

%ith a history o# #our con#licts in ?0 years and three nucleararmed adersaries continuing

to #ace o##, -outhern *sia has been described as a nuclear #lash+oint$ !t a++ears ineitable

that in 201 the -outhern *sian region and its e4tended neighbourhood will see acontinuation o# ongoing con#licts without ma&or let u+ and also #ace the +ossibility o# new

con#lagrations$

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Governmentof India.