seismic prediction & real time early warning methodology

8/3/2019 Seismic Prediction & Real Time Early Warning Methodology

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Article for TIEMS NewsletterPrediction is still only an evolving science.dont

expect too much yet!

With the recent events within the Italian Courts and in LAquila18months ago I believe that the fault lays with the fact that there hasbeen an attempt to turn 'Prediction' into a Real Time Early Warningmethodology. However as this stands now, this will always fail, this willsimply repeat the LAquila experience, generating confusion anddecisions by Governments, stemming from ignorance or internalpolitics.Whilst the predictionists 'fight' to be heard, there will always be othersto counter their evidence. Who does this help? the people or indeed

the Governments? No!

Consequently I believe a new approach is required, stated severaltimes over the recent years.Prediction is of little use to society without the ability to actuallytrigger an alarm immediately prior to or at the onset of the eventoccurring. We need to remove the guesswork......remove the surprise,remove the shock of the event arrival;we need to arm society with real time early warning sensor and

communication systems. This is actually cheaper, than say a costlyextended Court Case within each community, with lawyers milking thesystem; Its cheaper to install, than say, the cost of 100,000unnecessary injured casualties within a community; and its cheaper toinstall than ,say, some critical infrastructure being caught needlesslyunaware.Prediction IS VITAL, so that critical infrastructure is made aware of itsneed to prepare by retrofitting buildings, design of new build,relocation and protection of National interestsBUTIt still remains the question of surprise that causes most of the humancasualties and also unnecessary damage and losses to unpreparedcritical infrastructure.

The Japanese research shows that with only 2seconds early warning,25% of casualties can potentially be saved; with 5 only seconds earlywarning, up to a staggering 80% of casualties maybe saved. Imaginewhat you can do if we can increase or provide vital real time earlywarning to 10, 20 maybe 40 seconds.

Bearing in mind that during the Northridge Earthquake in 94, just over250, 000 were affected, 25,000 only requiring formal medical


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Article for TIEMS Newsletterattention, 50 of which were fatalities BUT this still cost their society$2billion. [this does not include the infrastructure costs of many morebillions]

An 80% saving, lets say only 50% saving......gives us a $1billion cashfund........So now, we ask how much, is it to install a real time earlywarning system network?

For a small L'Aquila community or Northridge? less than $250,000.For a City of Rome, Islamabad, or Madrid, $1million to create anoperational network, which every individual can buy into, for less than$100.

The assumption is that Governments must put a device into everyoneindividuals hands;.Not the case. If the Network system is created, peoplewill be able to buy into the network for the cost of 20 packets of cigarettes.Actually to net work the whole of a country, say Pakistan, would onlycost $1billion, half of the casualty cost of Northridge in 1994. Thepicture takes shape.We need prediction...most definitely! Its part of the methodologyprocess to prepare. It allows us prioritization within regions, It allowsus preparedness within home, school, office and industry, It switcheson our thought processes. BUT it needs to be integrated systematicallywithin the Early Warning methodology. And not be relied upon as theonly Real Time Early Warning. This is the challenge I lay beforeseismologists.If we have five different predictions of intensity, IT DOESNT MATTER.because the real time early warning alarm system, will identify on theday, the intensity, and IF it reaches a certain threshold a general alarmwill be activated. If that threshold is not reached, no harm done! Nofalse alarm! BUT PLEASE TAKE ALL RELIABLE PREDICTIONSSERIOUSLY. With a 'Real Time Early Warning System' in place,providing a potential of 2 to 90 seconds of Real Time Early Warningprior to arrival of the S-Wave, we can listen confidently, withoutconfusion to the differing Predictions.International Scientists, using satellite imagery, reliably predicted theL'Aquila and all quakes since the Sichuan Quake, within five days of their occurrence. But its agreed that this information is dangerous,within ignorant hands, within unprepared communities. It createsconfusion, uncertainty and the potential of misinterpretation.


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Article for TIEMS NewsletterSo the Methodology:

Set the parameters for prediction, differentiate between longterm prediction and reliable prediction of an imminentevent......using at least three sources.

Within seismically active or potentially vulnerable regions, Installwithin emergency services facilities, military facilities, securityfacilities and Crisis Management facilities , all with their ownthreshold trigger points

install auto device systems into critical infrastructure such as cutoff valves, release mechanisms, generator activations, elevatorauto realignment [set with their own thresholds]

Install a Real Time Early Warning System network throughout thewhole community [yes it exists and is successfully operatingalready in China]

Prepare the people.awareness education programme of mitigation activities and reactive procedures, with Drills andexercises and media propaganda.

Upon a successful community awareness programme, release thecommunications option, with relay devices, into the community,integrating into public address systems, offering the opportunity forcommunications directly into homes, offices and schools.Once the system is set up and society is aware of their requiredreactions to an alarms systemthen you can integrate reliablepredictions into Public Awareness programmes, media broadcasts,because they do not require immediate extreme action anymore, notuntil alarms are sounded. BUT people can be on standby, they canmake intelligent mitigation decisions, they can prepare the mostvulnerable, they can practice their drills, they can remove the safetycover off the preverbal trigger mechanism in preparedness, and somuch more. The technology exists to create this whole methodologynow. No longer arguing if and when and by how much, WastingMoney$ on indictments and public hearings.If its a reliable and shared prediction, then you can prepare to varyingdegree and await the event to arrive with the confidence that IF itreaches the threshold, the alarm will be triggered..and with theChinese system, Soluzion it gives you a countdown to the s-wavearrival at your location!

The same system allows to communicate secondary events, such astsunami, flash floods, urban wild fires, etc PLUS the system allows forchosen communication relay devices to be centrally triggered for drillsand exercises, ie to just emergency services stations, just hospitals,

just schools in a regionAND at the event happening, the central


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Article for TIEMS NewsletterCrisis Coordination Centre will have a full mapping of intensities andaffected area within Three Minutesnot having to wait for hours ordays to realise the scale of the event, as per the case in previousseismic events.I support Prediction Science, ALL of itThey are vital indicators! BUTDO NOT PRETEND PREDICTION CAN BE REAL TIME EARLY WARNING

TRIGGER MECHANISMSIn my next article, we will discuss the messaging challenges of earlywarning and prediction systemsGarry de la Pomerai

VERUS VICIS S O LUZI O N CONSORTIO FZ LLC

PO Box:33582 Al-Jazeera Al-Hamra Ras Al Khalmah UAE Tels: International +44 7845529211 UAE: +97 1505767302 China: +86 15198073632

Email: [email protected] Website: www.soluzionsystems.comFaceBook blogs:SOLUZIONSystems.com Skype: delapom44
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seismic prediction & real time early warning methodology

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