selection of optimal management strategies based on stochastic dynamic ecological models

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OLR (1987)34 (12) F. General 1083 87:7095 Weiss, H.V. and Dan Pavone, 1986. A mPu heat source in marine coastal sediment: formation of a protective concretion. Appl. Geochem~ 1(6):691- 696. The effect of the marine environment upon a vented Ir-encapsulated 238pu heat source was investigated. The heat source was emplaced in coastal submarine feldspathic sediment. In less than a month it became encased in a rock-like concretion, a white deposit of anhydrite, a mineral identified with high tempera- ture deep-sea springs. As the concretion increased in thickness sedimentary particles were incorporated by the cementing agent. A non-porous barrier was formed such that decay product He was impeded from escape, thus protecting the heat source against intrusion by the corrosive marine waters. Radiation Phys. Branch, Naval Ocean Syst. Center, San Diego, CA 92152-5000, USA. F260. Resources, management, econom- ics 87:7096 Ballantine, Bill, 1987. New Zealand's course for marine reserves. New Scient~ 114(1563):54-55. New Zealand's first statutory marine reserve became operational in 1977 and even though the country is now ,--10 years ahead of Britain, their development is still considered experimental in terms of answering the questions of why and where we need reserves. Consequently, New Zealand uses two approaches: (1) closing a reserve to all disturbances (used at The Cape Rodney to Okakari Point marine reserve near Leigh), and (2) restricting only those activities proved to be damaging (used at the Poor Knights Island marine reserve). While the Leigh reserve has been quite successful, the achievements at Poor Knights are more accurately characterized as a holding action for reasons that are discussed. (wbg) 87:7097 Hirano, Toshiyuki, 1987. Study on the oceanic environments relating to marine living resources. J. oceanogr. Soc. Japan, 42(6):490-501. (In Japanese, English abstract.) Faculty of Mar. Sci. and Tech., Tokai Univ., 3-20-10rido, Shimizu, Shizuoka 424, Japan. 87:7098 Jameson, D.A. and E.T. Bartlett, 1987. Selection of optimal management strateg~ breed on sto- chastic dynamic ecological models. Ecol. Model, 36(1-2):5-13. Stochastic dynamic programming (DP) provides a versatile solution procedure for a wide range of optimization problems and a convenient way of expressing system dynamics. However, many prob- lems are too large to solve this way, and actual solutions found may not differ appreciably from those of simpler techniques. For problems where system dynamics can be treated as linear-in-a- neighborhood, statistical errors are not strongly skewed, and model error is high relative to meas- urement error, periodically updated serialized linear programming or deterministic DP will give equally useful results. Dept. of Range Sci., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA. 87:7099 Kayes, Roger, 1987. Britain tests the water for marine conservation. New Scient, 114(1563):48-52. Britain's first statutory Marine Nature Reserve has been established on the island of Lundy (18 km north of Hartland Point at the mouth of Bristol Channel in North Devon); it includes the waters within ~1500 m from shore. What does this new status mean for marine life and habitats there? The Nature Conservancy Council is seeking only to prevent further deterioration at such sites--not restoration--so must deal with all interested parties. Hence, what appears to be a ban on fishing is not a complete one, for example, and the research envi- sioned must await a different economic climate. Political Ecol. Res. Group, Oxford, UK. (wbg) 87:7100 Linder, Ernst, G.P. Patil and D.S. Vaughan, 1987. Application of event tree risk analysis to fisheries management. Ecol. Model, 36(1-2):15-28. In fisheries science, stock assessment provides projections on which management decisions can be based. Uncertainties in estimating input parameters are considerable. An event tree analysis that couches the uncertainty of projections in terms of relative risk is proposed. To illustrate, the stock assessment advice given in 1980 for the Georges Bank haddock stock is rephrased in the framework of event tree analysis. This method is also examined for Gulf of Mexico menhaden. The results and their sensitivity relative to choices of end events are evaluated. Dept. of Statistics, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA 16802, USA. 87:7101 Staff, 1987. Worldwide exploration and production. Offshore, 47(6):30-52; 9 papers. The worldwide outlook for oil exploration and production is surveyed. Offshore drilling activity by

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Page 1: Selection of optimal management strategies based on stochastic dynamic ecological models

OLR (1987) 34 (12) F. General 1083

87:7095 Weiss, H.V. and Dan Pavone, 1986. A mPu heat

source in marine coastal sediment: formation of a protective concretion. Appl. Geochem~ 1(6):691- 696.

The effect of the marine environment upon a vented Ir-encapsulated 238pu heat source was investigated. The heat source was emplaced in coastal submarine feldspathic sediment. In less than a month it became encased in a rock-like concretion, a white deposit of anhydrite, a mineral identified with high tempera- ture deep-sea springs. As the concretion increased in thickness sedimentary particles were incorporated by the cementing agent. A non-porous barrier was formed such that decay product He was impeded from escape, thus protecting the heat source against intrusion by the corrosive marine waters. Radiation Phys. Branch, Naval Ocean Syst. Center, San Diego, CA 92152-5000, USA.

F260. Resources, management, econom- ics

87:7096 Ballantine, Bill, 1987. New Zealand's course for

marine reserves. New Scient~ 114(1563):54-55.

New Zealand's first statutory marine reserve became operational in 1977 and even though the country is now ,--10 years ahead of Britain, their development is still considered experimental in terms of answering the questions of why and where we need reserves. Consequently, New Zealand uses two approaches: (1) closing a reserve to all disturbances (used at The Cape Rodney to Okakari Point marine reserve near Leigh), and (2) restricting only those activities proved to be damaging (used at the Poor Knights Island marine reserve). While the Leigh reserve has been quite successful, the achievements at Poor Knights are more accurately characterized as a holding action for reasons that are discussed. (wbg)

87:7097 Hirano, Toshiyuki, 1987. Study on the oceanic

environments relating to marine living resources. J. oceanogr. Soc. Japan, 42(6):490-501. (In Japanese, English abstract.) Faculty of Mar. Sci. and Tech., Tokai Univ., 3-20-10rido, Shimizu, Shizuoka 424, Japan.

87:7098 Jameson, D.A. and E.T. Bartlett, 1987. Selection of

optimal management strateg~ breed on sto- chastic dynamic ecological models. Ecol. Model, 36(1-2):5-13.

Stochastic dynamic programming (DP) provides a versatile solution procedure for a wide range of optimization problems and a convenient way of expressing system dynamics. However, many prob- lems are too large to solve this way, and actual solutions found may not differ appreciably from those of simpler techniques. For problems where system dynamics can be treated as linear-in-a- neighborhood, statistical errors are not strongly skewed, and model error is high relative to meas- urement error, periodically updated serialized linear programming or deterministic DP will give equally useful results. Dept. of Range Sci., Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

87:7099 Kayes, Roger, 1987. Britain tests the water for marine

conservation. New Scient, 114(1563):48-52.

Britain's first statutory Marine Nature Reserve has been established on the island of Lundy (18 km north of Hartland Point at the mouth of Bristol Channel in North Devon); it includes the waters within ~1500 m from shore. What does this new status mean for marine life and habitats there? The Nature Conservancy Council is seeking only to prevent further deterioration at such sites--not restoration--so must deal with all interested parties. Hence, what appears to be a ban on fishing is not a complete one, for example, and the research envi- sioned must await a different economic climate. Political Ecol. Res. Group, Oxford, UK. (wbg)

87:7100 Linder, Ernst, G.P. Patil and D.S. Vaughan, 1987.

Application of event tree risk analysis to fisheries management. Ecol. Model, 36(1-2):15-28.

In fisheries science, stock assessment provides projections on which management decisions can be based. Uncertainties in estimating input parameters are considerable. An event tree analysis that couches the uncertainty of projections in terms of relative risk is proposed. To illustrate, the stock assessment advice given in 1980 for the Georges Bank haddock stock is rephrased in the framework of event tree analysis. This method is also examined for Gulf of Mexico menhaden. The results and their sensitivity relative to choices of end events are evaluated. Dept. of Statistics, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA 16802, USA.

87:7101 Staff, 1987. Worldwide exploration and production.

Offshore, 47(6):30-52; 9 papers.

The worldwide outlook for oil exploration and production is surveyed. Offshore drilling activity by