sema aftermarket demand index · 2009-07-23 · sema consumer demand index for performance products...

June 2009

©SEMA 2009 All Rights Reserved

SEMA Consumer Demand Index for Performance Products and Accessories – June 2009 2

Table of Contents Page

I. Methodology 4-5

II. Executive Summary 6-7

III. SEMA Consumer Demand Index 8-16 Overall Index and Sub-IndicesBy RegionBy Area TypeBy AgeBy Gender and Marital Status

IV. Specialties, Accessories & Appearance Products Sub-Index 17-21By RegionBy Area TypeBy AgeBy Gender and Marital Status

V. Racing and Performance Products Sub-Index 22-26By RegionBy Area TypeBy AgeBy Gender and Marital Status


Table of Contents Page

VI. Wheels, Tires and Suspension Components Sub-Index 27-31By RegionBy Area TypeBy AgeBy Gender and Marital Status

VII. Specialty Aftermarket Product Purchase Plans 32-47Overall Specialty Accessories & Appearance ProductsRacing & Performance ProductsWheels, Tires & Suspension Components Vehicles Marked for Enhancement or ModificationPreferred Distribution ChannelsForm of Vehicle After Customization

Contact Information 48

I. Methodology


Methodology• With assistance from TechnoMetrica, SEMA began developing the SEMA Consumer Demand Index for Performance

Products and Accessories (formerly branded PADI) in January 2007. The purpose of the Index is to track and help forecast U.S. consumer demand for automotive specialty and performance products, such as appearance products and accessories, racing and performance products and wheels, tires and suspension products .

• The SEMA Consumer Demand Index for Performance Products and Accessories is a weighted composite index (set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between January 2007 and March 2007).

• The Index and three sub-indices (for each product category) are based on the responses to the following questions:

– How likely are you to purchase specialty accessories and appearance products such as interior trim, restyling products, graphics, a sunroof, etc., for your vehicle in the next three months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

– How likely are you to purchase racing and performance products such as internal engine parts, drive train, exhaust system, fuel system and ignition components designed to improve performance through increased durability, capability or dependability for your vehicle in the next three months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

– How likely are you to purchase wheels, tires and suspension components such as specialty shocks, struts, lowering packages, lift kits, custom wheels, performance tires or performance brakes not including regular brake changes for your vehicle in the next three months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely not very likely or not at all likely?

• The Indices track consumers’ plans to purchase specialty aftermarket products within the next 3 months. The indices and their movements are projectable to the national market for aftermarket specialty products, which consists of over 114 million U.S. households.

• This report also includes information on the type of vehicle consumers are planning to modify or enhance, the distribution channels from which they are planning to make their purchases, expected expenditures on aftermarket products, among other information.

• Survey data is collected monthly using a Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey. This month’s report is based on 826 nationwide interviews with adult American drivers. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3%.

II. Executive Summary


Executive Summary• In June, the SEMA Consumer Demand Index increased 14 points, advancing from 32 in May to 46 this month. This

represents the second consecutive month the Index has increased, when it was at 26 in April. It also represents the highest point on the index since September of 2008.

• This month, 12% of adult American drivers indicated that they had plans to purchase specialty aftermarket products sometime within the next 3 months. This is up from 9% in May.

• About 6% of consumers said that they were likely to purchase wheels, tires and suspension components (up from 3% in May), while 7% said they were likely to purchase racing and performance products (up from 5% in May) and 8% said they were likely to purchase specialty accessories and appearance products (up from 2% in May).

• Over the last three months, on average, full-size cars (20%) were the most common target vehicles for enhancement or modification, followed by mid-size cars (18%), compact cars (16%), and pickup trucks (13%).

• Over the last three months, on average, car dealerships (30%) were the most popular purchase destinations among those planning to enhance their vehicles, followed by chain auto parts stores and independent parts stores (17% and 16%, respectively) and Internet sites (15%).

• When aftermarket buyers were asked what form their vehicle would take after customization, this month the most common answer was “general personalization” (51%), followed by “street performance” (10%) and “restoration” (9%).

III. SEMA Aftermarket Product Demand Index• Overall Index and Sub-Indices

• By Region

• By Area Type

• By Age

• By Gender and Marital Status


4632

2630

4336

293136

48

4335

81

4256 46 42

3529

3336

3632323842

42

404148486059

71

Feb-08

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-09

Feb Mar Apr May Jun-09

Aftermarket Demand Index 3SMA

SEMA Consumer Demand IndexIndex Up 14 Points

In June, the SEMA Consumer Demand Index for Performance Products and Accessories increased by 14 points, going from 32 in May to 46 this month. The TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which is a broader metric of overall consumer confidence, also increased in June (see next page).

Baseline=100


TIPP Economic Optimism Index

48.650.8

49.145.345.445.0

50.8

41.137.4

42.840.3

37.4

42.545.8

44.644.543.244.443.8

47.3

48.239.2

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

TIPP Economic Optimism Index


Estimated Aftermarket Product Purchases

June 2009

Month Index Households Purchasing Estimated Total Expenditures

September 2008 48 1,095,000 $1.7 billion

October 2008 36 813,000 $1.2 billion

November 2008 31 711,000 $1.1 billion

December 2008 29 669,000 $1.0 billion

January 2009 36 813,000 $1.2 billion

February 2009 43 980,000 $1.5 billion

March 2009 30 684,000 $1.1 billion

April 2009 26 592,800 $1.0 billion

May 2009 32 729,600 $1.2 billion

June 2009 46 1,048,800 $1.7 billion

Purchase Plans Translated into Actual PurchasesBased on related research and an Index score of 46, we estimate that over one million households will actually proceed with their purchase plans and make a purchase.


Overall SEMA Consumer Demand Index and Components

463226304336293136

48433542

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-09

Overall SEMA Consumer Demand Index

6448

63 67 56 49 4765

5232 39 27

87

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Specialty Accessories/Appearance Products

65 60 58 63 58 6239

59 7151 36

4978

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Racing & Performance Products

31 27 31 30 27 23 22 1729 28 18 14 28

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Wheels, Tires, Suspension Components


By RegionMidwest

27313435344024

41383519

3854

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


South

5741 44 42

60

31 36 32 37

73

1830 29

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


West

4121 19

47 41 32 2138 40

19 22 27 37

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Overall Index

Northeast

5532

6

54

212221244648

594658

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08



By Area Type

Overall Index

Urban

4238122229

3719

39374124

4945

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Suburban

2629242938273224415644

3041

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Rural

564147 54

2917

43 4165

43 4725

66

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08



By Age

Overall Index

18-24

119100101

77

33

84

131

84109

8252 51

85

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


25-44

43 3824

45 4628 23

33 5127 24

4157

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


45-64

31 363251

31 2717

25 28 26 22 24 29

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


65+

52421 32 20 11 16

3820 13 21 17 25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08



By Gender and Marital Status

Overall Index

Male

5263

4357 44 45 41

4968

41 41 41

74

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Female

33 2329 40 28 19 18 2317 19 13 22 19

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Married

35 332544 33

15 2132 32

1728 35

46

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Single

54 5950 6042

5744 41

61 53

22 2545

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


IV. Specialties, Accessories & Appearance Products Index• By Region

• By Area Type

• By Age



By Region

Specialties, Accessories & Appearance Products Index

Northeast

806358 54

6747 43 33

25

63

1440

110

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Midwest

7053

21

6575

97

3757 57

36 31 32 38

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


South

6275

6289

38 23

6071

93

1536

21

128

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


West

48 455443

58 47 41

86

427

74

1951

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08



By Area Type


Urban

76 72

3656 58 67

20

6343

17 1442

88

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Suburban

44 5047

8677

28

73

48

932 23

3

41

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08


Rural

58 5770 74

33 19

6880

99

57

86

23

122

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Jun-08



By Age


18-24

148134144

87 50

202

329

251 220

138

60 58

193

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-08


25-44

75 6441 6293

3412

64 5324 36 26

125

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-08


45-64

51 493281

36 36 23 33 29 26 35 20 40

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-08


65+

43628 41 10 4 34 31

14 344 25 19

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jun-08





Male

8796

53

8267 59

80

10698

4969

19

147

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Female

4229

43 53 46 40

1527

8 15 1434 30

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Married

63 5429

62 51

13 10

63

41

1433 25

83

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Single

647776 82 71

105 112

70 7263 52

29

93

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


• By Region

• By Area Type

• By Age


V. Racing and Performance Products Index


By Region

Racing and Performance Products Index

Northeast

88

28

98105 102

19

54

2042

73

529

94

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Midwest

9874

3833

40

103

36

6656

77

3254 60

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


South

6040

72 73 60

87

29

80

133

2949 42

94

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


West

22

96

30 41 3817

46 49

6

39 44

7257

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08



By Area Type


Urban

56 63

28

57 46

78

2351 51

31 25

6378

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Suburban

4664

94 94 99

42 3321

42 44

1233

17

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Rural

98

46

88

54 42 37

71

98122

9068

42

124

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08



By Age


18 to 24

251191194

5794

198 221 188

311

168

560

105

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Jun-08


25-44

296535 75 60 29 38

61 47 26 2688109

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Jun-08


45-64

40 5161 66 42 36 1945 41 30 46 37 52

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Jun-08


65+

4 2636 63 29 23 459

32 29 26 12 370

50100150200250300350400450500550600

Jun-08





Male

88 7689 84 86 100

52

87

133

7849

70

125

0255075

100125150175200225

Jun-08


Female

43 4132 43 31 28 27 329

25 24 28 34

0255075

100125150175200225

Jun-08


Married

553143

62 5431 27

48 41 31 3566

84

0255075

100125150175200225

Jun-08


Single

80102

8469 68

112

5875

123

84

3713

65

0255075

100125150175200225

Jun-08


• By Region

• By Area Type

• By Age


VI. Wheels, Tires and Suspension Components Index


By Region

Wheels, Tires and Suspension Components Index

Northeast

2735

61

2438

220 13 18

58

4 12

44

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Midwest

56

2816 17 14

3727

7 19 2736

18 22

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


South

31 312845

28 3224 24

47

15 15 1026

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


West

1032

822

2912 15 16 20 23 18 16

26

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08



By Area Type


Urban

2333

15 26 24 30

819 24 21

7 1123

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Suburban

12 1933 37 38

16 2810

29 25 24 24 28

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Rural

613642

31 229

3718

38 4329

9

36

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08



By Age


18 to 24

105 9579 7221

87139

7243

10265

4077

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

Jun-08


25-44

34 2927 29 36 21 13 944 27 21 10

29

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

Jun-08


45-64

16 1914 29 23 12 10 6 18 19 7 11 150

255075

100125150175200225250275300

Jun-08


65+

3 1313 7 16 3 427

10 5 5 12 150

255075

100125150175200225250275300

Jun-08





Male

36 4430 29

38 35 29 2142 41 32

22

50

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Female

26 1924 3016 12 14 13 17 16 6 5 7

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Married

20 1917 26 267 16 11 26

16 17 1321

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


Single

47 5140 41 29

4731 25 36

49

20 15

39

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-08


VII. Aftermarket Product Purchase Plans• Overall

• Specialty Accessories & Appearance Products

• Racing & Performance Products

• Wheels, Tires & Suspension Components


11% 10% 12% 13%10% 8% 8% 10% 11%

8% 7% 9%12%

Jun-08

Jul-08 Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Likely to Purchase by Selected Demographic Variables (June 2009)

Gender Age Household Income

Male Female 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ <$30k $30k-$50k

$50k-$75k $75k+

20% 5% 23% 15% 8% 7% 8% 17% 6% 11%

Q. How likely are you to purchase specialty aftermarket products within the next three months (combined)?

Aftermarket Product Purchase Plans: OverallBase = Those who driveOver One-Tenth of Households Plan on Purchasing

Specialty Aftermarket Products Within the Next 3 Months In June, the percentage of those who said they were

likely to purchase any specialty aftermarket product (i.e., specialty accessories/appearance products, racing/performance products or wheels, tires or suspension components) within the next 3 months was 12%.

Please see the table below and the charts on the following page for more information by selected demographic variables.


Likely to Purchase by Parental Status

11% 13%

Parents Non-Parents

Likely to Purchase by Region

15%

7%

15%11%

Northeast Midwest South West

Likely to Purchase by Area Type

11%7%

18%

Urban Suburban Rural

Likely to Purchase by Marital Status

12% 12%

Married Single

Aftermarket Product Purchase Plans(Overall) by Selected Demographics

June 2009


Purchase Likelihood Over Time: By Product Category June 2009

7% 6%7% 6% 6% 5% 5%

4%

6% 6%4%

3%

6%6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6%4%

6%4%

6% 6%5% 4% 4%

7%5%

3%

5%7%

6%

8%

2%4%3%

5%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

Wheels, Tires, Suspension Components Racing & Performance Specialty Accessories/Appearance


Q. How likely are you to purchase specified aftermarket products within the next three months?

Specialty Aftermarket Product Purchase Plans: DetailBase = Those who drive

Very Likely, 3%

Somewhat Likely, 5%

Not Very Likely, 13%

Not At All Likely, 78%

Not Sure, 1%Very Likely, 3%

Somewhat Likely, 4%



Not Sure, 1%

Very Likely, 3%

Somewhat Likely, 3%



Not Sure, 1%

Specialty Accessories & Appearance Products Racing & Performance Products

Wheels, Tires and Suspension Components

June 2009


Q. How likely are you to purchase specialty accessories and appearance products in the next three months?

Base = Those who drive

In June, 8% of drivers said that they were likely to purchase specialty accessories and appearance products sometime within the next 3 months.


Close to One-Tenth of Households Plan on Purchasing Specialty Accessories & Appearance Products Within the Next 3 Months

Purchase Plans: Specialty Accessories & Appearance Products



Male Female 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ <$30k $30k-$50k

$50k-$75k $75k+

13% 3% 17% 11% 4% 2% 4% 13% 5% 5%

6% 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 6% 5% 3% 4% 2%

8%

Jun-08

Jul-08 Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09



6% 9%

Parents Non-Parents


10%3%

11%5%



8%4%

11%


Purchase Plans: Specialty Accessories & Appearance Products by Selected Demographic Variables


7% 8%

Married Single

June 2009


Q. How likely are you to purchase racing and performance products in the next three months?


In June, 7% of drivers said that they were likely to purchase racing and performance products sometime within the next 3 months.


Seven Percent of Households Plan on Purchasing Racing & Performance Products Within Next 3 Months

Purchase Plans: Racing & Performance Products



Male Female 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ <$30k $30k-$50k

$50k-$75k $75k+

12% 3% 10% 10% 5% 3% 7% 11% 1% 9%

6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% 5% 3% 5% 7%

Jun-08

Jul-08 Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09



10%6%

Parents Non-Parents


9% 6% 9%5%



7%2%

12%


Purchase Plans: Racing & Performance Products by Selected Demographic Variables


8% 6%

Married Single

June 2009


Q. How likely are you to purchase products such as wheels, tires and components in the next three months?


In June, 6% of drivers said that they were likely to purchase specialty aftermarket products such as wheels, tires or suspension components sometime within the next 3 months.


Six Percent of Households Plan on Purchasing Wheels, Tires and Suspension Components Within Next 3 Months

Purchase Plans: Wheels, Tires & Suspension Components



Male Female 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ <$30k $30k-$50k

$50k-$75k $75k+

11% 2% 17% 6% 3% 3% 1% 13% 2% 5%

7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%6% 6% 4% 3%

6%

Jun-08

Jul-08 Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09



7% 6%

Parents Non-Parents


10%5% 6% 6%



5% 6% 8%


Purchase Plans: Wheels, Tires & Suspension Components by Selected Demographic Variables


5% 8%

Married Single

June 2009


Base = Those who plan on enhancing a vehicle

Vehicles Marked for Enhancement or Modification

3 Month Moving Averages

Q. What type of vehicle are you planning to enhance?

11%

20%

14%16%

24%

18%

27%25%

29%

22%20% 20%

18%

24%

18%20% 20%

15%

22%

18% 19%17% 16%

13%15%

13%

17%

22%20%

17%

13% 14%12% 13%

16%

22%

9%

12%13%15%

18%16%15%16%17%

11%12%14%14%15%

13%15%

Apr08-Jun08

May08-Jul08

Jun08-Aug08

Jul08-Sep08

Aug08-Oct08

Sep08-Nov08

Oct08-Dec08

Nov08-Jan09

Dec08-Feb09

Jan09-Mar09

Feb09-Apr09

Mar09-May09

Apr09-Jun09

Mid sized Pickup Trucks Full sized Compact



Vehicles Marked for Enhancement or Modification (continued)


Q. What type of vehicle are you planning to enhance?

6% 6% 7% 7% 8%5% 5% 6%

3%

7%10%

12% 11%

7% 8%10%

8% 7%

13%10% 11% 12%

10% 9%7%

9%10% 10% 10%

6% 7%4% 4% 5% 5% 5%

8% 9%7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6%

10%8%

6%4%

Apr08-Jun08

May08-Jul08

Jun08-Aug08

Jul08-Sep08

Aug08-Oct08

Sep08-Nov08

Oct08-Dec08

Nov08-Jan09

Dec08-Feb09

Jan09-Mar09

Feb09-Apr09

Mar09-May09

Apr09-Jun09

Large SUV Small SUV Minivan Subcompact/Mini



Preferred Distribution Channels

Q. Where are you most likely to make your purchase?

17%

28%

23% 23%

26%

22%24%

26% 25% 24% 24%

27%

30%

11% 12% 11%13%

15% 14%

17% 16%

20%

17% 17% 17% 17%16%

11%

14% 14%

11%

17%

13% 14%

11% 12% 11%

14%16%15%

13%

18%16%

21%

17% 17%15%

22%

19%17% 18% 18%

Apr08-Jun08

May08-Jul08

Jun08-Aug08

Jul08-Sep08

Aug08-Oct08

Sep08-Nov08

Oct08-Dec08

Nov08-Jan09

Dec08-Feb09

Jan09-Mar09

Feb09-Apr09

Mar09-May09

Apr09-Jun09

Car Dealership Chain Auto Parts Store Independent Parts Store Internet Site/Online




Preferred Distribution Channels (continued)


Q. Where are you most likely to make your purchase?

9% 8%10%

8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7%9%

7%9%

11%9% 10%

7%10%

7%

13%11% 11%

6%8% 8% 7%

5% 5%7%

5% 5%

1%3% 3% 3%

5%3%

1% 1%

5% 5% 6%

2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Apr08-Jun08

May08-Jul08

Jun08-Aug08

Jul08-Sep08

Aug08-Oct08

Sep08-Nov08

Oct08-Dec08

Nov08-Jan09

Dec08-Feb09

Jan09-Mar09

Feb09-Apr09

Mar09-May09

Apr09-Jun09

Retail Department Store Performance, Speed or Specialty Installation Shop Print Ads/Mail Order Car Shows


Form of Vehicle After Customization

Q. Which of the following best describes the form your vehicle will take due to the customization?

3%

4%

4%

3%

8%

9%

7%

11%

51%

7%

2%

2%

6%

5%

5%

10%

9%

52%

Not Sure

Ontrack Racing

Street Truck

Compact Performance

Hot Rod

Restoration

Offroad

Street Performance

General Personalization

3-Month AverageJune



Contact InformationTo request a full data set or for any questions, please contact:

Contact: Megan McKernan

Address: SEMA1575 S. Valley Vista DriveDiamond Bar, CA 91765

Phone: (909)396-0289

Email: [email protected]

sema aftermarket demand index · 2009-07-23 · sema consumer demand index for performance products...

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