seminar pasaran saham faizal yusup
TRANSCRIPT
Seminar Pasaran Saham
Faizal Yusup
The Securities Commission established under the Securities
Commission Act 1993 (“Commission”) reserve all proprietary rights
to the contents of this Presentation. No part of this Presentation
may be used or reproduced in any form without the
Commission’s prior written permission.
This Presentation is provided for information purposes only.
Neither the Commission nor the Presenter make any warranty,
express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility
for the accuracy, completeness or currency of the contents of
this Presentation.
It is your responsibility to verify any information before using or
relying on it.
The Speaker
• Faizal Yusup is a licensed Remisier under Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad and a consultant for Advance Forward Training and Consultant. Many recognizes him by his nickname, FY. He is an avid investment blogger and acknowledged by many for his skills and experience in the stock market.
• Begins his career as an institutional dealer under Morgan Grenfell in 1996 at Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad before converting to become a remisier in 2006.
• He possess a Diploma in Investment Analysis from UiTM Shah Alam and a BSc Finance from the University of Nebraska Lincoln, USA. He stated financial and investment knowledge is very important and is also a pillar that strengthen his profession as a Remisier at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. Apart of being the main speaker in Super Investors Seminar organized by Advance Forward Training and Consultants he is also invited as a guest speaker for MITI, PRIBUMI and even the Securities Commission.
• Finally, he is currently the Vice President of the Association of Bumiputera Malaysia Remisier. (PRIBUMI)
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Peraturan Seminar • Dilarang merokok atau membuat bising di dalam bilik
seminar.
• Sila matikan atau “silent mode”kan telefon bimbit anda.
• Sebarang rakaman audio video adalah dilarang sama
sekali.
• Bahan-bahan seminar adalah Hakcipta Terpelihara
Advance Forward Training and Consultants dan tindakan
akan diambil bagi sesiapa yang didapati memplagiat
mana-mana material di dalam seminar ini.
• Pihak penganjur berhak mengeluarkan mana-mana
peserta yang tidak mematuhi peraturan-peraturan yang
tertera di atas.
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 4
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 5
Pengenalan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tahukah anda sekiranya anda membeli 1,000 unit
saham Public Bank sejak tahun 1967 dan
menyimpannya dalam tempoh 42 tahun, pelaburan
anda telah berkembang kepada RM2.1M hari ini !!!
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Warren Buffett sering melawat syarikat
broker saham bapanya sebagai seorang
kanak-kanak. Pada usia 11 tahun beliau
membuat pelaburan pertamanya; Beliau
membeli tiga saham Cities Service Preferred
pada $38 sesaham. Saham tersebut turun
kepada hanya $27, tetapi Buffett berdegil
dan menyimpannya sehingga ia mencapai
$40. Beliau menjual sahamnya pada
keuntungan kecil, tetapi kemudiannya
menyesal kerana saham tersebut
meningkat kepada hampir $200 sesaham.
Disinilah beliau belajar mengenai
kesabaran dalam pelaburan saham.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Pelaburan Jenis – Jenis Pelaburan
• Simpanan di Bank
• Hartanah
• Insuran
• Koleksi barang berharga
• Saham • Unit Amanah
• Bon
• Warran
• Derivatif iaitu kontrak niaga hadapan dan opsyen
• Dan lain-lain lagi
Page 9
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Risk & Return How much are you willing to pay me to …
SKYDIVE
SCUBA DIVING
ROLLER BLADE
SLEEP
WIN (RETURN) LOSS (RISK)
SHARE, JUNK BONDS
CAPITAL TRUST, BLUE CHIPS, BONDS
GOVERNMENT BONDS, COUPONS
BANK ACCOUNT, FIXED DEPOSITS
OPTIONS, FUTURES, CURRENCY
MOUNTAIN CLIMBING
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
INSTRUMENT LIQUIDITY VELOCITY COMPETITION RISK RETURN
HARTANAH RENDAH RENDAH SEDERHANA RENDAH SEDERHANA
UNIT TRUST SEDERHANA SEDERHANA RENDAH RENDAH SEDERHANA
SAHAM TINGGI SEDERHANA SEDERHANA SEDERHANA TINGGI
DERIVATIF TINGGI TINGGI TINGGI TINGGI TINGGI
Satu Analisis
Pelaburan Saham
PASARAN SAHAM
PRIMARY MARKET
Saham Terbitan Awal
(Initial Public Offer)
Permohonan saham
melalui Kementerian (MITI)
Wang pelaburan disalur
terus kepada syarikat
sebagai modal perniagaan
SECONDARY MARKET
Syarikat yang telah
tersenarai di Bursa Malaysia
Urusan jual beli serta
pembayaran saham
berlaku antara pelabur
melalui Broker saham
tanpa pembabitan syarikat tersenarai tersebut
ABC Sdn Bhd (Melalui Pinjaman Bank)
Membayar balik pinjaman beserta faedah
Pinjaman Bank
Syarikat Membesar
Bank
Pulangan Dividen dan kenaikan harga saham
Sijil Saham
Melabur
Syarikat Membesar
Investors
ABC Sdn Bhd (Terbitan Saham)
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Prospektus Contoh
Page 17
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Faedah Tersenarai Di Pasaran Saham
Page 18
• Syarikat tersenarai lebih terkenal
• Penambahan modal
• Mendapatkan dana pada kos yang lebih rendah
• Mendapat liputan dari syarikat broker, media
cetak dan media elektronik
• Tempat menjual dan membeli saham syarikat
• Saham boleh dicagarkan bagi mendapatkan
pinjaman tambahan
• Terbitan saham khas bagi pekerja. - “ESOS”
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 19
Bagaimanakah saham diDAGANGkan?
Dimanakah saham diSIMPAN?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Simpanan Saham
Page 20
BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
PAPAN UTAMA
Penyenaraian bagi
syarikat yang
mempunyai ‘track
record’ kewangan dan
keuntungan yang baik
PAPAN ACE
Menggantikan pasaran
MESDAQ pada tahun
2009
Bagi syarikat yang baru
ditubuhkan – belum
mempunyai ‘track
record’
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Syarat Penyenaraian Bursa Malaysia
Page 22
Aspect Main Market ACE market
a) Profit Test • Uninterrupted profit after tax (“PAT”) of 3 - 5 full financial years (“FY”), with aggregate of at least RM20 million; and
• PAT of at least RM6 million for the most recent full FY
• No minimum operating track record or profit requirement
b) Market Capitalisation Test
• A total market capitalization of at least RM500 million upon listing; and Incorporated and generated operating revenue for at least 1 full FY prior to submission
• -
c) Infrastructure Project Corporation test
• Must have the right to build and operate an infrastructure project in or outside Malaysia:-
• with project costs of not less than RM500 million;
IPO price • Minimum RM0.50 each • No minimum
Public Spread • At least 25% of the Company's share capital; and
• Minimum of 1,000 public shareholders holding not less than 100 shares each
• At least 25% of the Company's share capital; and
• Minimum of 200 public shareholders holding not less than 100 shares each
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
INDEKS BURSA MALAYSIA
i. Penanda aras bagi mengukur prestasi keseluruhan pasaran
ii. Dikira menggunakan kaedah pemberat modal pasaran (market capitalization)
iii. Indeks-indeks utama ;
– Indeks FBM KLCI
– Indeks FBM TOP 100
– Indeks FBM Emas
– Indeks FBM Small Cap Indeks/Indeks FBM Small Cap Shariah
– Indeks FBM Hijrah Syariah
– Indeks sektor-sektor perniagaan
PRODUK BURSA MALAYSIA
REAL ESTATE
INVESTMENT TRUST
(REITS)
ORDINARY SHARES COMPANY
WARRANTS
FKLI & FCPO
PRODUK BURSA MALAYSIA
CALL WARRANTS EXCHANGE TRADED
FUND
LOAN STOCK /
SUKUK
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Simpanan Saham
Page 26
• Menyediakan kemudahan-kemudahan dan peraturan bagi
urusniaga saham di Malaysia.
• Menyediakan perkhidmatan kepada pelabur dan
mempertingkatkan minat mereka di dalam pelaburan sekuriti.
• Mempertingkatkan kemudahan-kemudahan bagi tujuan
perkembangan perdagangan dan perindustrian di Malaysia.
• Menyediakan peraturan-peraturan penyenaraian syarikat-
syarikat dan memastikan peraturan tersebut dipatuhi.
• Melaksanakan pengawasan terhadap perjalanan pasaran dan juga dasar pendedahan korporat.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Dagangan Saham – Sistem BFE
Page 27
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Dagangan Saham – Sistem BTX
Page 28
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Dagangan Saham
Page 29
Dagangan saham
dijalankan oleh REMISIER yang
berlesen.
Pembeli membayar pembelian SAHAM.
Saham bertukar tangan.
Pembeli mendapat
saham.
Penjual dapat UNTUNG.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Pasaran Saham
Page 30
PEMBELI
PENJUAL
Sama seperti sebuah pasar, pasaran saham menyediakan tempat dimana pembeli dan penjual bertemu…
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Pasaran Saham
Page 31
Pasaran Saham menukarkan Tabungan kepada Pelaburan: Dan pelaburan ini secara tak langsung membangunkan ekonomi negara.
Tabungan
Pelaburan
Pertumbuhan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Malaysia Pasaran Saham
Page 32
Bagaimana Pembelian Anda Memberi Kesan Kepada Pasaran Saham?
Anda menggunakan perkhidmatan MYEG
Syarikat MYEG menjana keuntungan
Pelabur membeli saham MYEG lantas menyebabkan kenaikan harga
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Definisi Pemilikan Ekuiti
Page 33
• Ekuiti adalah saham-saham yang diterbitkan oleh
syarikat yang tersenarai di Bursa Malaysia dan juga
saham-saham yang tidak tersenarai di Bursa
Malaysia.
• Pemegang saham – pemilik syarikat
Memulakan Portfolio Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 35
Masalah Utama
Pelabur mengalami
kerugian kerana tidak
mempunyai kemahiran
memilih saham yang
menguntungkan dengan
itu menyebabkan modal
mereka mengecil dan
akhirnya mereka hilang
keyakinan lantas
meninggalkan pasaran.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 36
• Niat main saham dan bukannya melabur saham
• Membeli saham menggunakan duit yang dipinjam
• Tiada ilmu pelaburan
• Tiada perancangan
• Tak kenal risiko yang terlibat
• Tiada Asset Allocation
• Tiada Diversification
• Berfikir jangkamasa pendek
• Terlebih dagangan
• Terlebih jangkaan nilai
• Tak faham Penyata Kewangan Syarikat
• Tidak membuat analisis
• Tidak tahu cara membuat analisis
• Tidak dapat mengawal emosi
• Mendengar tips dan rumors
• Terlalu percaya kepada berita
• Salah memilih penasihat
• Dan lain-lain lagi
Dalam ertikata lain – Main tembak!
Kesilapan Pelabur
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 37
• Bagaimanakah anda membuat penyelidikan akan
syarikat mana untuk dibeli?
• Apakah jangkamasa pelaburan anda?
• Berapa jenis saham yang akan anda laburkan?
• Apakah strategi keuntungan dan kerugian anda?
Strategi Pelaburan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 38
Risiko Pelaburan
• Risiko Pasaran Am
• Risiko Bursa Malaysia
• Risiko Syarikat yang dilaburkan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 39
T - Transaction day. Hari urusniaga dijalankan baik urusniaga
Beli atau Jual.
T+1 - Kontrak yang tertera jumlah saham, harga, brokerage yang
dikenakan, dan jumlah yang perlu dibayar akan diposkan kepada
anda.
T+3 – Kontrak matang (Contract due) dan pembayaran perlu
dibuat pada atau sebelum hari ini.
T+4 – Force Selling Day. Kalau kontrak tidak dibayar atau saham
yang anda beli pada T day itu tidak diambil (pick up) maka ia
akan dipaksa jual pada hari ini oleh Dealer syarikat.
Bursa Settlement
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 40
Settlement
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
BUY
SELL
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 41
Settlement
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5
BUY
SELL
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kos Urusniaga Jual Beli Saham
Page 42
HANYA 3 CAJ:
• YURAN BROKER:
Minima RM40 atau 0.3 - 0.7% nilai kasar transaksi + GST
• YURAN PENJELASAN (BURSA MALAYSIA):
0.03% nilai kasar transaksi + GST
• DUTI SETEM (KERAJAAN):
RM1 bagi setiap RM1000
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 43
Apa kita boleh beli dengan RM1,000.00 sahaja?
RM1,000.00? Biar betul FY
nih….
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kos Urusniaga Membeli Saham (RM,1000.00)
Page 44
NAMA SAHAM ABC DEF GHI JUMLAH
Harga 0.24 0.34 0.3
Kuantiti 1,000 1,000 1,000
Nilai Kasar Belian (RM) 240.00 340.00 300.00
ditambah dengan kos berikut:
(1) KOMISYEN PEMBEROKERAN (BROKERAGE) 40.00 40.00 40.00
0.7% daripada nilai kasar belian atau minima
RM40
(2) DUTI SETEM 1.00 1.00 1.00
RM1 bagi setiap RM1,000 nilai kasar belian
(3) YURAN PENJELASAN (clearing fee) 0.07 0.10 0.09
0.03% daripada nilai kasar belian
JUMLAH PERLU DIBAYAR 281.07 381.10 341.09
1,003.26
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kos Urusniaga Menjual Saham
Page 45
NAMA SAHAM ABC DEF GHI JUMLAH Harga 0.24 0.34 0.3
Kuantiti 1,000 1,000 1,000
Nilai Kasar Belian (RM) 240.00 340.00 300.00
ditambah dengan kos berikut:
(1) KOMISYEN PEMBEROKERAN (BROKERAGE) 40.00 40.00 40.00
0.7% daripada nilai kasar belian atau minima
RM40
(2) DUTI SETEM 1.00 1.00 1.00
RM1 bagi setiap RM1,000 nilai kasar belian
(3) YURAN PENJELASAN (clearing fee) 0.07 0.10 0.09
0.03% daripada nilai kasar belian
JUMLAH YANG DITERIMA 438.86 638.80 558.82 1,636.47
JUMLAH PELABURAN ASAL 281.07 381.1 341.09 1,003.26
JUMLAH KEUNTUNGAN 157.79 257.70 217.73 633.21
PERATUSAN PULANGAN (%) 56.14 67.62 63.83 63.12
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 46
Dahsyat!
63% tuh!
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 47
Konsep Melabur Saham
Niat - bukan "main saham" tetapi "melabur
saham".
Pilihan saham lebih bijaksana
Sebagai pemilik jangka panjang - membesar
bersama syarikat
Menggunakan hak sebagai pemegang
saham
Melabur bukan sekadar mendapatkan pulangan pada akhir tahun tetapi mengetahui bagaimana
pendapatan dijana
Menjana semangat keusahawanan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
STATUS SYARIAH
Page 48
Berdasarkan senarai yang terkini,
Sejumlah 674 kaunter adalah
Mematuhi status Syariah
iaitu 73 peratus dari jumlah keseluruhan 922 syarikat
yang tersenarai di Bursa Malaysia.
Melabur Dalam Pasaran
Terbuka (Secondary Market)
KATEGORI SAHAM
Syarikat yang kukuh
dan stabil kedudukan
kewangannya dengan
‘track record’ yang
stabil. Eg; MAYBANK,
NESTLE
SAHAM BLUE CHIPS
Syarikat dengan
pulangan dividen yang
tinggi dan konsisten
setiap tahun. Eg;
MAXIS, PUBLIC
BANK
SAHAM PENDAPATAN
Syarikat dengan
purata perolehan yang
lebih tinggi dari purata
pasaran. Eg: Dayang,
Sapura Kencana
SAHAM PERTUMBUHAN
KATEGORI SAHAM (samb.)
Syarikat yang mana
prestasinya tertakluk
kepada putaran
ekonomi. Eg:
Automotive,
Consumer product
SAHAM CYCLICAL
Syarikat yang punya
risiko perniagaan yang
rendah dan boleh
bertahan walaupun
ekonomi merudum.
Eg: YTL Power &
Puncak Niaga
SAHAM DEFENSIF
Saham berisiko tinggi
dan berkemugkinan
dimanipulasi. Eg; oil
exploration company,
penny stocks.
SAHAM SPEKULATIF
Adakah anda
INVESTOR
atau TRADER?
Peserta Pasaran Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
• PELABUR (INVESTOR)
- Melabur ke atas saham bagi jangka masa
panjang – enam bulan ke atas
- Tahap risiko - rendah
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
• POSITION TRADER
- Berurusniaga saham dalam jangka masa
pendek
- Tiga bulan ke bawah
- Tahap risiko – rendah hingga sederhana
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
CONTRA PLAYER
Membeli Saham Tanpa Niat untuk
Membayar Saham tersebut
Mesti jual pada T+3
Tahap Risiko - High
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
INTRADAY TRADER
Beli Jual Pada Hari Yang Sama
Tahap Risiko – Sederhana ke Tinggi
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Adakah ini kita?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 63
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 64
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 65
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 66
• Niat main saham dan bukannya melabur saham
• Membeli saham menggunakan duit yang dipinjam
• Tiada ilmu pelaburan
• Tiada perancangan
• Tak kenal risiko yang terlibat
• Tiada Asset Allocation
• Tiada Diversification
• Berfikir jangkamasa pendek
• Terlebih dagangan
• Terlebih jangkaan nilai
• Tak faham Penyata Kewangan Syarikat
• Tidak membuat analisis
• Tidak tahu cara membuat analisis
• Tidak dapat mengawal emosi
• Mendengar tips dan rumors
• Terlalu percaya kepada berita
• Salah memilih penasihat
• Dan lain-lain lagi
Dalam ertikata lain – Main tembak!
Kesilapan Pelabur
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 67
• Membeli Kancil pada harga Kancil
• Membeli Mercedes pada harga Mercedes
• Membeli Kancil pada harga Mercedes
• Membeli Mercedes pada harga Kancil
• Menjual Kancil pada harga Mercedes
• Menjual Mercedes pada harga Ferarri
Analogi Pelaburan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
PILIHAN SAHAM TIMING UNTUNG /
RUGI
Betul Salah Untung
Salah Betul Untung
Salah Salah Rugi
Betul Betul Untung
Menjana Keuntungan
Strategi Pemilihan Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Analisis Fundamental
Analisis Kualitatif
Strategi Pelaburan Nilai
Strategi Pelaburan Pendapatan
Strategi Pelaburan Pertumbuhan
Strategi CAN SLIM
Analisis Teknikal
Pelbagai Strategi Pemilihan Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 71
Analisa Fundamental Public Listed Company
• Profil Syarikat
• Profil Lembaga Pengarah dan pengurus syarikat
• Penyata Tadbir urus syarikat (corporate governance)
• Struktur Korporat Syarikat
• Perancangan masa hadapan syarikat- penyataan Pengerusi
• Berjayakah syarikat menunaikan janji prestasi kewangan syarikat?
• Tertera di Penyata Kewangan Syarikat yang diaudit
• Senarai 30 Pemegang Saham Syarikat Terbesar
• Pergi AGM
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 72
Contoh Public Listed Company
MITRAJAYA HOLDINGS BERHAD STATUS : ACTIVE
COUNTRY Malaysia
SIC CODE GEN CONTRACTOR-OTH RESIDENTL (1522)
NO. 9 BLOK D PUSAT PERDAGANGAN PUCHONG PRIMA, PERSIARAN PRIMA UTAMA, TAMAN PUCHONG PRIMA, PUCHONG, SELANGOR DARUL EHSAN
Tel: (60) 3 8060 9999
Fax: (60) 3 8060 9998
PROFILE BRIEF
The Company is an investment holding company. The Group's core business is civil engineering, property development, building and road construction.
DIRECTORS/ADVISORS
COB JAMILUS BIN MD HUSSIN CEO ENG PIOW TAN CEO/MD/PRESIDENT ENG PIOW TAN
AUDITOR RABIN & ASSOCIATES
Analisa Fundamental
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 73
Analisa Kewangan Penyata Kewangan
Fiscal Year 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009
ISO Currency MYR ('000) MYR ('000) MYR ('000)
Report Type C C C
INCOME STATEMENT
Net Turnover/Net Sales
311,421 195,287 326,347
EBITDA 28,156 15,837 70,860
EBIT 19,352 7,753 62,157
Net Profit 8,148 2,322 41,206
Ordinary Dividend 0 0 0
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 74
Penyata Imbangan
BALANCE SHEET
Intangibles 3,286 3,860 3,653
Fixed Assets 107,517 105,822 148,389
Long Term Investments 119 0 0
Stocks/Inventories 185,976 202,670 213,423
Cash 7,310 2,011 5,700
Current Liabilities 143,618 135,275 155,985
Long Term Debt 33,178 50,929 42,555
Provisions 0 0 0
Minorities 13,918 14,064 18,350
Total Shareholders Equity 224,195 214,819 260,933
Analisa Kewangan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 75
Key Ratios
KEY RATIOS
Operating Margin 6.3 3.73 19.15
Return on Equity Capital 3.64 1.06 17.32
Net Profit Margin 2.62 1.19 12.63
Current Ratio 2 2.09 1.86
Debt to Capital at Book 0.21 0.24 0.23
Fiscal Year 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009
ISO Currency MYR ('000) MYR ('000) MYR ('000)
Analisa Kewangan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 76
Income Statement
Fiscal Year 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008
ISO Currency MYR ('000) MYR ('000) MYR ('000)
Report Type C C C
INCOME STATEMENT
Net Turnover/Net Sales 269,804 311,421 195,287
EBITDA 24,598 28,156 15,837
EBIT 19,753 19,352 7,753
Net Profit 7,115 8,148 2,322
Ordinary Dividend 0 0 0
BALANCE SHEET
Intangibles 4,042 3,286 3,860
Fixed Assets 75,291 107,517 105,822
Long Term Investments 119 119 0
Stocks/Inventories 185,255 185,976 202,670
Cash 3,012 7,310 2,011
Current Liabilities 170,355 143,618 135,275
Long Term Debt 7,347 33,178 50,929
Provisions 0 0 0
Minorities 14,470 13,918 14,064
Total Shareholders Equity 223,204 224,195 214,819
Analisa Kewangan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 77
KEY RATIOS
Operating Margin 7.04 6.3 3.73
Return on Equity Capital
3.27 3.64 1.06
Net Profit Margin 2.64 2.62 1.19
Current Ratio 1.89 2 2.09
Debt to Capital at Book
0.18 0.21 0.24
Fiscal Year 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008
ISO Currency MYR ('000) MYR ('000) MYR ('000
Analisa Kewangan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
9 Tip Pemilihan Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
• Adakah syarikat tersebut punya kuasa monopoli
pengguna?
• Adakah kita faham operasi syarikat tersebut?
• Adakah syarikat tersebut akan bankrap dan
digantikan dengan syarikat yang lain dalam
jangkamana 20 tahun?
• Apakah sejarah Earning Per Shares syarikat
tersebut?
• Adakah syarikat membawa pulangan yang tinggi
berasaskan ekuiti pemegang saham.
• Adakah syarikat tersebut dibiayai secara
konservatif?
• Adakah syarikat membeli balik saham-saham
mereka secara aktif?
• Adakah syarikat boleh menaikkan harga jualan
mengikut kenaikan inflasi dengan mudah?
• Adakah perniagaan tersebut mudah difahami?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Diperkenalkan oleh William O’Neil
C - Current quarterly earnings per share has increased sharply from the
same quarters' earnings reported in the prior year.
A - Annual earnings increases over the last five years.
N - New products, management, and other new events. In addition, the
company's stock has reached new highs.
S - Small supply and large demand for a stock creates excess demand, and
an environment in which stock prices can soar. Companies acquiring their
own stock reduces market supply and can indicate their expectation of
future profitability.
L - Choose leaders over laggard stocks within the same industry.
I - Pick stocks who have institutional sponsorship by a few institutions with
recent above average performance.
M - Determining market direction.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 84
YOY Revenue RM '000
Profit/ Loss RM'000
EPS
4 155,953 41,018 24.60
3 77,629 20,821 15.33
2 57,882 7,363 5.43
1 45,233 3,153 1.32
Penyata Kewangan Strategi
CANSLIM
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Apa itu Teknikal Analisa?
• Menganalisa pasaran menggunakan
carta berdasarkan harga dan kuantiti
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kelebihan
• Poin Harga Beli & Jual
• Flexibiliti
• Mengawal Risiko
• Mudah difahami
• Mudah dipraktikkan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kekurangan
• Memerlukan Trend
• Pergerakan Harga Dan Kuantiti
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 89
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 90
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
15 Tip Pemilihan Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Memilih
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Memilih
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Adakah saham tersebut selari dengan
Contoh: GLC, Air, Kelapa Sawit, O&G, Getah, IT, Hartanah,
Kayu Kayan, Blue Chips, 2nd Liner, Penny Stocks, etc.
Tip Memilih
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Buat perbandingan syarikat
dalam industri yang sama
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Perbandingan syarikat dalam industri yang sama
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Pemilihan
saham
Adakah syarikat bersifat leader,
monopoli dan boleh bertahan selama
20 tahun yang akan datang?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Analisa sejarah syarikat 5 hingga 10
tahun, adakah keuntungan yang
dijana stabil atau tidak? Kalau tidak
lupakan sahaja kerana kita ada
banyak lagi saham lain yang boleh
dipilih.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Analisa fakta sejarah bagi menentukan pulangan dividen
dan Return On Equity, sekiranya anda lihat ia berada pada
paras yang baik maka saham tersebut boleh diberi
pertimbangan.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 103
Penyata Kewangan 1
Harga Saham 2.00
Qtr Revenue RM '000
Profit/ Loss RM'000
EPS
4 88,030 11,881 8.12
3 83,362 16,438 13.24
2 97,046 18,581 13.39
1 64,285 10,066 7.38
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
New Revolution in Self Improvement Page 104
Harga Saham 2.00
Qtr Revenue RM '000
Profit/ Loss RM'000
EPS
4 433,118 39,196 3.01
3 270,909 10,385 0.27
2 173,875 13,181 0.89
1 189,677 11,032 0.93
Penyata Kewangan 2
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kalau syarikat itu PE nya 30 maka ;
RM1/ PE 30 = 3.33 peratus
Kalau syarikat itu PE nya 20 maka ;
RM1/ PE 20 = 5 peratus
Kalau syarikat itu PE nya 15 maka ;
RM1/ PE 15 = 6.67 peratus
Kalau syarikat itu PE nya 10 maka ;
RM1 / PE 10 = 10 peratus
Kalau syarikat itu PE nya 5 maka ;
RM1 / PE 5 = 20 peratus
Pengiraan
PE
Ratio
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Pemilihan
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 107
Directors’ Buy Back
Announcement Date
Company Buy Back
Date Shrs
Acquired Min Max
Total Amt. Paid
Total Treasury
Shrs
25-Jan MITRAJAYA 25-Jan 47,500 1.88 1.89 89,599.25 7,843,500
01-Dec MITRAJAYA 01-Dec 2,000 1.17 1.17 2,340.00 7,796,000
01-Jun MITRAJAYA 01-Jun 5,000 1.10 1.10 5,500.00 7,794,000
11-Mar MITRAJAYA 11-Mar 109,600 0.89 0.89 96,996.00 7,789,000
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 108
Bukti
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 109
Directors’ Buy Back
Announcement Date
Company Buy Back
Date Shrs Acquired Min Max
Total Amt. Paid
Total Treasury
Shrs
10-May EP MANUFACTURING BHD 10-May 100,000 0.86 0.88 87,182.27 5,504,000
09-May EP MANUFACTURING BHD 09-May 190,000 0.87 0.89 166,855.06 5,404,000
06-May EP MANUFACTURING BHD 06-May 100,000 0.87 0.87 87,635.10 5,214,000
04-May EP MANUFACTURING BHD 04-May 31,700 0.76 0.78 24,480.60 5,114,000
03-May EP MANUFACTURING BHD 03-May 166,000 0.79 0.80 132,046.19 5,082,300
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 110
Bukti
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Ada rumors tentang syarikat tersebut?
Tip : Buy on Rumours, Sell on News (Fakta)
Tip Memilih
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Memilih
Saham Adakah terdapat Direct Business
Transaction oleh
Fund Manager?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Growth Stocks Income Stocks
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip memilih
Saham
Adakah saham tersebut disarankan oleh
Research Houses?
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Memilih
Saham
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Tip Memilih
Saham
Network
Suratkhabar
www.theedgemalaysia.com/
www.btimes.com.my/
Website dan Blog
• politemarket.blogspot.com/
• malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/
• nexttrade.blogspot.com/
• bursamarketplace
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Masa
Membeli
Saham
Technical Analysis
Behavioral Analysis
Quantitaive Analysis
Feng Shui Analysis
Astrology Analysis
Rational Analysis
etc.
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 126
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Bursa Station
Murasaki
Homily Charts
Capital Via
MK Experience
Fiavest
IVSACharts
ChartNexus
etc.
Strategi Pembelian Saham
Page 129
CHANELLING
Page 130
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Harga Semasa
Jumlah Pelaburan
Modal Pelaburan
Saham Dibeli
Jumlah Saham
Q1 RM1.00 RM1,000 RM1,000 1000 1000
Q2 RM1.25 RM2,000 RM1,000 800 1800
Q3 RM0.80 RM3,000 RM1,000 1250 3050
Q4 RM1.00 RM4,000 RM1,000 1000 4050
Purata Kos Jumlah Kos Jumlah Semasa Untung
DCA RM0.988 RM4,000 RM4,050 RM50
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Harga Semasa
Jumlah Pelaburan
Saham Dibeli
Jumlah Saham
Nilai Saham
Modal Pelaburan
Q1 RM1.00 RM1,000 1000 1000 RM1,000 RM1,000
Q2 RM1.25 RM2,000 600 1600 RM1,250 + RM750
Q3 RM0.80 RM3,000 2150 3750 RM1,280 + RM1,720
Q4 RM1.00 RM4,000 250 4000 RM3,750 + RM250
Purata Kos Jumlah Kos Jumlah Semasa Untung
VA RM0.93 RM3,720 RM4,000 RM280
VALUE AVERAGING
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Purata Kos Jumlah Kos Jumlah Semasa Untung
DCA RM0.988 RM4,000 RM4,050 RM50
VA RM0.93 RM3,720 RM4,000 RM280
KESIMPULAN
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Kedudukan Indeks Pelaburan Tunai : Saham
Pada Indeks 1500 RM25K 75% : 25%
Pada Indeks 1300 RM25K 50% : 50%
Pada Indeks 1000 RM25K 25% : 75%
Pada Indeks 800 RM25K 100% : 0%
NISBAH TUNAI
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
GENERASI SAHAM PENDAPATAN SAHAM PERTUMBUHAN
Gen X 70% 30%
Gen Y 30% 70%
PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
THE PERCENTAGE RISK MODEL
Modal Pelaburan = RM 50,000
Kerugian maksima bagi setiap dagangan ditetapkan
pada 2% daripada modal pelaburan. Jumlah dagangan saham akan berdasarkan kepada risiko setiap saham.
Contoh Pengiraan :-
Kita labur saham dengan trend yang menaik.
2% daripada RM 50,000 = RM 1000 ( Kerugian Maksima )
Jangkaan risiko = 0.05
Oleh itu, jumlah saham dibeli = RM 1000 / 0.05
= 20,000 unit
6 Langkah Mudah Melabur
Dalam Pasaran Terbuka
Buy Low Sell High
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 138
Langkah #1
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 139
Langkah #2
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 140
Langkah #3
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 141
Langkah #4
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 142
Langkah #5
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 143
PORTFOLIO SCREENER
COUNTER PRICE QTR EPS FWD EPS PE FWD PE BKR TGT BUY BACK SECTOR
1 1.03 PADINI 1.090 13.950 47.260 55.800 2.3064 1.953 CONSUMER
2 2.07 PLENITUDE 2.090 15.000 68.650 60.000 3.0444 3.483 PROPERTY
3 1.71 TSM 1.500 13.940 54.970 55.760 2.7288 2.690 TRADING
4 0.96 YEELEE 0.990 2.880 29.420 11.520 3.3651 8.594 CONSUMER
5 1.58 HUNZPTY 1.650 18.390 41.770 73.560 3.9502 2.243 OSK 3.08 PROP
6 0.68 TOMEI 0.690 3.720 16.230 14.880 4.2514 4.637 HLG 0.90 C/PROD
7 0.68 CENBOND 0.670 3.470 14.070 13.880 4.7619 4.827 IP
8 0.58 EPMB 0.920 4.490 14.610 17.960 6.2971 5.122 YES IP
9 1.80 CENTURY 1.690 10.270 36.850 41.080 4.5862 4.114 OSK 2.24 TS
10 1.17 GUH 1.200 4.800 20.250 19.200 5.9259 6.250 YES IP
11 1.07 SUCCESS 1.020 4.520 20.140 18.080 5.0645 5.642 IP
12 3.05 MBMR 3.220 14.160 55.990 56.640 5.7510 5.685 HDBS 4.15 / MBB 5.00 YES TS
13 1.47 EVERGREEN 1.470 3.810 25.470 15.240 5.7715 9.646 RHB 2.57 / OSK 2.59 IP
14 2.69 COASTAL 3.490 14.800 55.040 59.200 6.3408 5.895 OSK 3.77 IP
15 1.00 FAJAR 1.070 3.140 16.570 12.560 6.4575 8.519 RHB 1.37 / KN 1.52 CONST
16 0.80 LEADER 0.850 3.440 11.990 13.760 7.0892 6.177 OSK 1.20 YES IP STEEL
17 1.10 FAVCO 1.400 5.120 14.720 20.480 9.5109 6.836 IP
18 0.75 CCK 0.850 3.840 10.400 15.360 8.1731 5.534 CONSUMER
19 1.06 HUAYANG 1.700 7.110 20.990 28.440 8.0991 5.977 PROPERTY
20 2.04 EPIC 2.780 7.920 28.270 31.680 9.8337 8.775 MMB / OSK 3.09 TS ONG
21 2.04 SUNWAY 2.600 8.400 27.920 33.600 9.3123 7.738 ECM 2.61 CONST
Langkah #6
Tindakan Seterusnya
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 145
Buat Screener Dokumentasi
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 146
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 147
Penutup
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 149
USA Krisis Kewangan
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 150
KLCI Krisis Kewangan
KRISIS KLCI 1977 - 2007
US Recession
Mexican Financial Crisis
Black Monday Iran Iraq War
Asian Financial Crisis
911
SARS
Subprime Crisis
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 151
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Q&A
SUMMARY AND WRAP-UP
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Sila lengkapkan Borang Penilaian
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 155
www.faizalyusup.net faizalyusup.my
© Advance Forward Training & Consultant
Page 156
Hubungi FY
Facebook : Faizal Yusupii
Email: [email protected]
Blog : www.faizalyusup.net Website : faizalyusup.my
H/P : 012 654 0130
016 666 7430