seminar13 mar 2013 - sesion 1 - forest transition in mekong_ by xu jianchu
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China initiated the largest forest conservation programs in the world. Chinese forest policies also contributed to increasing forest/tree cover in Yunnan province, Southwest China. We mapped forest cover in Yunnan, Mekong region using satellite imagery. We reconstructed the forest transition curve through narratives since the Great Leap Forward that started in 1958, as well as data from socioeconomic census since 1990s. Our results suggest that the increase in tree cover at the end of the last century was initiated by government policies that encompass regulative approaches as well as incentive payments for tree planting on sloping land, as well as market-driven plantation economy. Local trajectories of forest cover change hence resulted from a combination of exogenous policy-induced incentive payments and endogenous adaptation of land use strategies to changing market conditions. While policies facilitated the increase of tree cover in Yunnan, the degradation of natural forests often continued unabated. Local differences in factor endowments and the uneven geographic distribution of policy support contributed to considerable variation in the pathways to the forest transition, the shape of the forest transition curve, and the environmental and economic outcomes among villages. A better understanding of these processes is paramount to design incentive schemes that stimulate sustainable land use transitions.TRANSCRIPT
Forest Transition in Mekong River Basin:
State-led or Smallholder-driven?
Jianchu XU, Principle Ecologist
World Agroforestry Centre
Forest in Mekong Region (1990-2010)
8 million ha Net forest loss
12.7 million ha Natural forest lost
4.7 million ha Plantation (tree crops)
Source: FAO 2010
Existing land cover products for the Mekong River Basin
Slide 3
GlobCover 2009 MODIS land cover 2011
Global map products
No regional specific classes
Less appropriate for local/basin scale land cover analyses
Definition of physiographic homogenous subregions
Slide 4
Elevation SRTM DEM
Precipitation WorldClim
Land Cover MODIS Land Cover
6 Physiographic Homogenous Subregions
+ + Segmentation
Biophysical Profile
I. Tibetan Plateau
Tibetan Plateau Ecosystem Changes
2011-2075
• Alpine grasslands 23%---9.5% (decreasing)
• Shrublands 11%---29% (increasing)
Zhao et al. 2011. Reg Environ Change 11(4): 905-915
II. Greater-Rivers: Lancang in Yunnan
III. Xishuangbanna and Mekong Highland
IV. Mekong Lowland
V. Intensive Cultivation
VI. Tonle Sap/Mekong Delta
Tonle Sap Lake
Mekong Delta
Mangrove in Mekong Delta
Vo et al., 2013. Remote Sens 5:183-201
What drives forest transition?
What does global change mean for forest ecosystem?
Land use/cover change
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Climate Change 25~30%
water
temperature
＋emission
—sequestration
What are roles of states?
1950s
1980s
1970s
1960s
2000
1990s
2010
2020
“Great Leap Forward”
Food Self-Sufficiency
“Wasteland auction” in 1994
Establishing Natural Reserves in 1981
De-collectivization in 1978
Forestland Three Fixing in 1982
Peri-Urbanization
Logging ban in 1998
Grain for green in 1999
Collective Forest Tenure Reform in 2006
Climate change mitigation
Township/village enterprise
Collective period: Food First
Economic booming, env. Degradation &
Emerging forest rights
State payment for env. service
Urbanization
Time Triggers Scenarios
Chinese Policy Narratives
2006 Secured Forest Rights
Does market drive forest transition?
Kunming-Bangkok Highway
Transboundary resource flows
• Water • Fish & wildlife • Timber • Energy • Can be natural, disrupted
or ‘assisted’ – Disruption of fish
migration by hydropower dams
– Illegal trade in wildlife or timber
21
10
15
20
25
Nat
iona
l for
est
cove
r (%
)
GreatLeap
Forward
HouseholdResponsibility
SystemYangtze
Flood 2009Goal:23%
Goal:26%
1958 1981 1998 2009 2020 2050
Sources: Zhang (1949); Forestry Surveys (1976-2009); Forestry Ministry (2020, 2050)
Forest cover change in China
Goal reached: 20% by 2010
Turning point in 1981: 12% forest cover
Greater Rivers in NW Yunnan: alpine forest
Policy and climate interplay
Priced mushroom as
agent for forest
transition:
Vegetation/fungal
succession
Xishuangbanna, Upper Mekong
From shifting cultivator from smallholder rubber farmers
87,000 ha 153,000 ha 424,000 ha (18.3%)
Nature Reserve: 242,000 ha, 12.6%
Xu et al. 2013 Ecological Indicators http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.08.023
Respondent reported main livelihood activity
Sharing/Sparing
More protected areas?
More agroforestry?
Forest transition pathways in Yunnan
→ State-initiated forest programs
o Regulative, top-down reforestation (NFPP)
o Incentive-based afforestation (SLCP)
→ More recently, voluntary planting of cash trees
o Increasing market-orientation of small farmers
o Little government support, in part driven by companies
Key Lessons
1. The forest transition in Yunnan was set off by
government policies.
2. Plantation forests or tree crops contribute largest
share to forest increase.
3. Increasing tree cover might have little
contribution to environmental services
particularly watershed function and biodiversity
4. Endogenous socioeconomic dynamics become
increasingly pertinent for land use transitions.
CIFOR-ICRAF Mekong Sentinel Landscape
Pay attention to forest transition in Yunnan (Greater Rivers) and Mekong highlands!
