Senior University Fall 2008

The Phantom Science Session 6

The Rise & Fall(?) of the West

The Fat Lady Sings

Set Your Watch on Mountain Time

““History is so indifferently rich that a case History is so indifferently rich that a case

for almost an conclusion from it can be for almost an conclusion from it can be

made by a selection of instancesmade by a selection of instances””

Will and Ariel Durant, “The Lessons of History”Will and Ariel Durant, “The Lessons of History”

Early Humans

Early to Class, that is.It’s a No, No when there’s a camera

Never get to Class Early

Now back to business

Remember the diamonds in Arkansas?

Diamonds

Crater of Diamonds State Park Arkansas

Diamonds

Geologic Map USA

Diamonds

Diamonds

TexasVolcanics

DiamondVolcano

Diamonds No DiamondsNo Diamonds

Now for Session 6

At the close of the 1700’sNatural Philosophy (geology) was inharmony with the Western Ecclesiastical,Political, & Economic Power Structure of the Time!

THIS HARMONY WOULD NOT LAST LONG!!

Where we are in World History

Remember from Last Week

The Great Nations and Empires ran on Their access to Iron and Coal

Transportation: by Foot or “Horse”Iron & Coal provided tools & Weapons

Remember from Last Week

Everything changes with the invention of the Steam Engine

Now Coal is truly KING!

Then, it was the Internal Combustion Engine

Now Great Nations run on Oil

Only the USA and Russia have large DOMESTIC Oil reserves

Civilizations Time Lines 1700 TO 2008

Our focus today:1. Europe & USA: 19th & 20th Centuries

The Principal Players

Iron and Coal Oil

Foot & “Horse” Steam Internal CombustionEngine

Essential Natural Resources Now

ElectricMotor

Coal or Nuclear

Our focus today:1. Europe & USA: 19th & 20th Centuries

3. USA, Russia, & China: 21st Century

If you’ve got it flaunt it

Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting

2. Phantom Science comes Center StageYou ain’t seen nothing yet!

First: Europe & the USA in 19th & 20th Centuries Background

The World 1500 – 1800 ADThe Rush for the Resources of the New World

Next: the Struggle in Europe

Europe and theEastern Hemisphere

Conflicts for Iron & Coal 19th & 20th centuries

Wars & Concessions to Reallocate and Augment the Natural Resources of Europe

Oil

Oil for Engines 20th century

The Scramble for Oil: 20th Century

USA48 states

USA: Only country in the world with abundant, DEVELOPED Iron, Coal, & Oil

Middle EastUSA, Shell Saudi ArabiaFrance, Britain, Shell,USA Iraq ,Iran, etc

USA VenezuelaUSA Libya

USA Indonesia

Lacked Oil

Oil joins Iron and Coal as essential to being World Class Nation

Energy in the USA Today

Uses of all PetroleumSupply of all US Energy

by Source

Daily Oil Production Worldwide(?)30 mm b/d

Daily Oil Production USA ‘50 – ‘08

Worldwide Oil & Gas reserves Estimated 2030 (dbeau)

Now: The Phantom Science takes Center Stage!

RockSequences

GeneralGeologyGeologic

Maps

Europe 19th Century Pioneers of the Science of Geology

Mining

James Hutton: Father of Modern Geology

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James Hutton: Father of Modern Geology

James Hutton: (1726-1797) Scottish gentleman farmer & physician

“The past history of our globe must be explained by what can be seen to be happening now”

Geology’s MostFamous RockOutcrop:

Siccar Point:Eastern Scotland on the North Sea

What did Hutton learn here?

James Hutton: (1726-1797)1.Rise & Fall of sea level = erosion & deposition2.Subterranean heat =

1. volcanoes & lavas 2. Veins of metal ores,3. Uplifts (mountains)4. rock folding, and faults

James Hutton: Scottish gentleman farmer Complex Sequence of Geological Events

Can you figure out the geologic history of this rock outcrop?

1. 2.3.4. 5.5.

6.

7.

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Charles Lyell: Geological Pioneer1.Documented James Hutton’s work2.Defined “Uniformitarianism”

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Charles Lyell: “Principles of Geology”, 1830Hutton’s Geology & “Uniformitarianism”

Sir Charles Lyell, British Geology Compiler Principles of Geology, 1830

Uniformitarianism: Today’s Processes and rates of change define the past

William “Strata” Smith: Pioneer Geologic Map Maker

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William “Strata” Smith: English Surveyor Father of the Geological Map

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William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer

Smith created a Geologic Map of England while surveying construction of Canals

William “Strata” Smith, English Engineer

Used fossils to Identify Rock Layers of the Same Age and Engineering Significance

William “Strata” Smith’s Geologic Map of Great Britain

Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”The Book that changed the “world”: 1858

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Charles Darwin: “The Origin of Species”The Book that changed the “world”: 1858

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Charles Darwin (1809-1892)“Field Biologist and Geologist

Origin of Species: Natural Selection “The Survival of the Fittest”

Charles Darwin, age 32

Two Hypotheses on the Origin of Species

PunctuatedEquilibriumNiles Eldredge & Steven Jay Gould, 1972

Gradual“Equilibrium”

Continental DriftAlfred Wegener, 1880 to 1930

Alfred Wegener, 1880 to 1930 German Meteorologist Continental Drift Proposal

290 Million Years Ago 37 Million Years Ago

An Example: North America

Continental Drift:North America drifts from Africa-South America

And then

Continental Drift:North America drifts from South America& Eurasia from Africa from South America

An Example: North America & Texas

Continental DriftNorth America through the Ages

Continental Drift Theory:Embraced in Europe in the 20’s & 30’sAccepted in USA in the 50’s & 60’s

Absolute Age Dating: The Giant Step of the 1950 & 60’s

“How old is our earth?”1658 Bishop Ussher: 6000 years

1785 James Hutton: 30 to 50 million years1830 Sir Charles Lyell: 80 million years

1899 John Joly, 90 million years (sea salts)

Lord Kelvin, 24 to 40 million yearsHeat flow

1947 to 1960 Radioactivity, 4.8 BILLION YEARS OLD!!

Future ??????

1800 1900 2000

1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth 1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps

1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology 1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species

“Absolute” Age Dating of Rocks

Absolute Age Continental Drift

J. Laurence Kulp: Columbia University Geochemist research in radiometric dating included :-- Potassium-argon dating[6] [7]

- Rubidium-strontium dating [8]

- Uranium-lead dating [9]

- Carbon-14 [10]

The Currently Accepted Geologic Ages

Geochemistry: Absolute Age Dating

Absolute Age DatingMeasuring the Decay of Radio Active Minerals

Age Dating using Uranium 238Radioactive Decay of Uranium 238

Decay products

Method Assumes: Today’s rate of Decay is the same as it was in the pastMapping the Rocks under the Oceans

End ProductLead 206

Plate Tectonics: Deep Sea Rock Cores & Rock Structures

Three American Oceanographic InstitutionsColumbia University/Lamont, New YorkWoods Hole, MassachusettsScripps, San Diego, California

Lamont Geological Observatory, 1949

Maurice Ewing1906 – 1974

Ocean Surveys:Bottom CoresRock layers & structure (seismic)Gravity & Magnetic readings

Tracks of Deep Sea Ships collectingBottom Cores & Imaging Rocks below Sea Bed

Deep Sea Data: Bases for Plate Tectonics: The Deformation caused by the Collision of Continents

Seafloor Rocks & Ocean Crust Ocean Margin Deformation

Mountain Building

New Oceanic Crust

And all this lead to the theory of Plate Tectonics

Plate TectonicsCollision of Continents

Appalachian MountainsAppalachian Mountains

Mountain BuildingMountain Building

Collision Ancient ContinentsCollision Ancient Continents

ScandinaviaScandinavia

FranceFrance

Spain

Crushed & Melted into mountain range

Mountain Range due to Plate Collisions

Mississippian Time340 million years ago

England

Plate Tectonic Reconstruction: 340 myp

North America: North America: Northward Drift during Pennsylvanian Time Northward Drift during Pennsylvanian Time

Mississippian TimeMississippian Time 340 million years ago340 million years ago

Pennsylvanian Time Pennsylvanian Time 300 million years ago300 million years ago

Texas at equatorTexas at equator

Greenland rotating counter clockwiseGreenland rotating counter clockwise

Geophysics: Reflection Seismic Imaging the Earth’s Crust

1800 1900 2000

1788 Hutton, Theory of the Earth 1815 William Smith, Fossil correlation maps

1830 Charles Lyell, Principles of Geology 1859 Charles Darwin, Origin of Species

Petrography (classification of rocks): from early times

Mining geology: from the beginning of time to the present Crystallography: gem stones: from the beginning of human history to the present Geophysical Subsurface Imaging

Petrology: Origin of Rocks

Mineralogy: Components of rocks: Microscopes, X-ray diffractionStratigraphy : Stratigraphic Column, paleo-geol ogic Maps

Geochemistry : Radio age dating Geophysics: Subsurface imaging

Continental Drift

Exploring for water, petroleum, and oresGeophysics: Subsurface Imaging: 1930 -Present

Geophysics: Subsurface Imaging

Sea Level

20,000 feet

Layers of rock

Deformed and faulted layers of rock

Possible oil & gas accumulations

How might subsurface imaging be used here in Williamson County?

The Oil & Gas Potential Williamson County

Oil in Ancient Volcanic & Chalk Rocks

Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.

ThrallField

CoplandField

City of

Taylor

Round Rock

Georgetown

Sun City

Route 79

ChapmanAbbott Field

Volcanic Reservoirs in Williamson Co.

Example: Thrall Field: Oil in Volcanic Rock

Pilot Knob Volcano Austin Area, TX

How the Thrall Volcano might have looked

Taylor Marl (cap rock)

Hypothetical Cross Section: Thrall Oil Field

Thrall Field: Depleted in 1030’sIs there any oil left in the ground at Thrall Field?

Route 79Thrall

Thrall

Oil Field

ThrallOil FieldFeb. 22, 1915

Thrall Field: produced 2 million barrels of oilEst. remaining oil = 8 million barrels

How might we recover some of those 8 million barrels of oil?

SurfaceSh

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Subsurface Imaging

Selecting the Drill Site

Target Reservoir Beds

Route 79Thrall

Thrall

Oil Field

Defining the Shapeof the Volcanic Trapat the Thrall Field

Subsurface Image

How might we recover some of those 8 million barrels of oil?

Surface

Drilling Rig

Drill Hole

Oil

Prospective Formation

“Horizontal” Drilling looking for Old OilConventional Drill Hole

DirectionalDrill Hole

Thrall

Oil Field

Re-drilling theThrall Oil Field

Surface Drill Site

Exploring for New Fields

New Oil in the Thrall Area Seismic Lines

New Oil in the Thrall Area Drilling the Prospects

Thrall Northeast

Chapman Abbott FieldJan. 18, 1930

Seismic Evaluation Chapman-Abbott Field Area

Why is this oil activity economical now?

Just do the Math

Just do the MathUsing the early 1950’s as a base line:

Gasoline: $0.30/gallon

Oil: $3.00/barrel

Investment Profitability: $500/daily barrel

Base: $0.30/gal; $3.00/bbl; $500/ daily bbl

What’s the situation today?

Today: Adjust for Inflation

Adjusting for Inflation: X 10

Gasoline: $0.30/gal X 10= $3.00/gallon

Oil: $3.00/barrel X10= $30.00/barrel

Investment Profitability: $500/daily bbl X 10= $5000/daily bbl

$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl

But why is gas $4.00/gallonand oil over $100.00/barrel?

Today: Adjusting for the Cost of Finding New Oil

Today Investment Profitabilities go as high as:

$3.00/gal; $30.00/bbl; $5000/ daily bbl

$15,000 to $25,000/daily barrelThis is 3 to 5 X’s the cost of “old” Oil

What can we expect to pay for gasoline as the “old” oil is depleted and we must use only “new” oil?

In the next 15 years:Gasoline: $3.00 X 3 to 5$9.00 to $15.00/gallon

Oil: $90.00 to $150.00/bbl

How does all this impact the rise and fall of nations?

Nations having their own oil, iron, and coal have a huge advantage over those who must buy oil, iron, and coal

Let’s look at the national distribution of iron, coal, and oil

Major Iron Ore Producing Countries

Note: England, Germany & FranceIron Ore largely depleted

USA: Iron Ore Reserves greatly depleted

Putin’s Russia:Substantial Reserves

Let’s look at the worlds leading Nationstheir Iron, Coal, Oil in the last 100 years

USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950The beginning of the Cold War

We had huge, developed domestic resources of Fe, Coal, and Iron

What about Europe just after WW II

Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 1950

Western USSR

NowEngland, German, & FranceResources almost depleted!

Who will have competitive domestic resources in the 21st century?

USA: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050

We will be importing almost all of the Fe, Coal, Oil & Gas we need

This will make it very difficult to maintain our world leadership

Now look at Putin’s Russia

Europe: Iron, Coal, Oil: 2050

Putin’s Russia

And this doesn’t include Asiatic or Arctic Russia

Alaska

Canada

Norway

Russia

High Arctic #1 Area forNew Oil & Gas

Ring of Mountains

Internal

Mountai

ns

Rivers &Deltas

Russia #2 Area forNew Oil & Gas

The Mountain Foothills Play

Russia #2 Area forNew Oil & Gas

Canada

Alaska

Greenland

Norway

Russia

Possible Arctic Shipping Route

“Melted” Ice Cap

Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean

Out to the edge of the continents

Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean

Centered on the North Pole

Various Schemes to divide the Arctic Ocean

Proportionate to “Land Area”

Canada

Alaska

Russia

The USA and Western Europe may be,Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting!

Ring of Mountains

Internal

Mountai

ns

Rivers &Deltas

RussiaNew Oil & GasRussia:

Plus more than half of the Arctic!What can we do?

Weighed in the Balance & Found Wanting

USA

Western Europe

Putin’s

Russia

What can we do?

Go Electric!

Develop our vast lignite coal deposits

Our untapped lignite coal deposits

This Belongs to You

The Fat Lady’s Song:

The Fat Lady’s Song:Principle Energy: Lignite not Petroleum

Go Electric: Transportation & Heating

Maintain Friendly Sources for Iron

Petroleum: Use only Domestic Production

Supplemental Energy: Nuclear, Wind, Solar Set your watch on Mountain Time

Set Your Watch onSet Your Watch on Mountain TimeMountain Time

It’s your choice!It’s your choice!

A Future Worth Leaving for our Grandchildren

Mohonk Mountain House, New Pultz, NY

Coming Next Spring at Senior University

You Want to Invest in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production?

This is What You Should Know about Geological Risk & Production Profitability

Thanks for the Memories!!

The Best is Yet to Come!