sensitivity analysis of cost parameters for floating offshore ......floating offshore wind farm...

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4. Conclusion An application of sensitivity analysis of the main cost parameters for TLP floating offshore wind farms has been presented. The total life cycle costs of the farm were evaluated through a cost model, considering CAPEX, OPEX and DECEX. In the analysis, bathymetry constrains deriving from the minimum TLP draft, the environmental aspects, i.e. the presence of protected areas, as well as navigation limitations were taken into account. The final result is in the form of a life cycle cost map, giving a bird’s- eye view of the variation of the costs of the farm, to be compared with a similar map describing the variation of producibility, beyond the scope of this research. Comparison of the two maps allows evaluation of the distribution of the LCOE for a specific project, therefore giving a first idea of its feasibility. Therefore, the approach presented here is to be considered for use in the early stage of the decision-making process, as a tool for the preliminary assessment of feasibility and of political evaluation. References [1] Bjerkseter C. and Ågotnes A. 2013 Levelised Costs of Energy for Offshore Floating Wind Turbine Concepts (Norway: Norwegian University of Life Sciences) [2] Blanco M. I. 2009 The economics of wind energy Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 13 (6-7) pp 1372-1382 [3] George J. 2014 WindFloat Design for Dierent Turbine Sizes (Portugal: UL University of Lisbon) [4] Maienza C., Avossa A. M., Ricciardelli F., Scherillo F. and Georgakis C. T. 2019 A comparative analysis of construction costs of onshore and shallow- and deep-water offshore wind farms XV Conf. of the Italian Assoc. for Wind Eng.: IN VENTO 2018 (Naples) vol 27 (Springer) pp 440-453 [5] Statoil 2015 Hywind Scotland Pilot Park (Norway: Environmental Statement) 1. Introduction Over the last few decades, a renewed progress of the offshore wind sector has taken place. In particular, floating wind turbines represent the next frontier in the wind power industry. The development of this technology is strongly dependent on its economic feasibility. There follows that the development of economic analyses is crucial to highlight the possible greater potential of floating offshore wind farms, and to support their sustainability and technical value. Currently, only few studies are available on their possible investment cost. Therefore, a cost assessment for floating offshore wind farms is largely necessary to ascertain if this new technology is economically sustainable. The main objective of this work is to develop a sensitivity analysis of the main cost parameters for floating offshore wind farms. This derives from a proposed general cost model which takes into account all the cost parameters. In this study, the model is applied to the Italian national waters. The proposed study should be helpful for future decision- making processes. Results should provide guidance on how to preliminary assess the quality of a site for floating offshore wind farm installation. Sensitivity aspects. Sensitivity analysis has been applied to TLP floating offshore wind farm and has been developed in QGIS. A farm made of 12 wind turbines with a nominal power of 5 MW, supported by a TLP floater and located at a distance of seven rotor diameters from each other, is considered. The rotor diameter is 126 m. Moreover, farms are arranged in three rows of 4 turbines, respectively, and each wind farm covers a total area of around 8 km². The layout of wind farm is shown below. The calculation domain has been defined, corresponding to the space between Italian coastline and the national water limit. In this domain, 1621 sites have been generated corresponding to possible farms positions. Subsequently, has been calculated the total cost for all sites in the reference domain, based on the actual value of the input variables. Histograms shows the occurrence ranges of the distance to shore, distance from port of operation, the bathymetry and the TLP wind farm costs of the sites considered in the analyses. 2. Methodology Economic aspects. The method proposed is based on a model for the life cycle cost assessment of floating offshore wind farms. This includes calculation of Capital cost (CAPEX), C Capex , Operation and Maintenance cost (OPEX), C Opex and Decommissioning cost (DECEX), C Decex . Therefore, the life cycle cost C LC of a floating wind farm is given by: C C LC C C = C C Capex x + + C C Opex x + + C C Decex C C Capex x = C C T T + C C P P + C C TS S S + C C M M + C C A A + C C IT T + C C IP P + C C ITS S S + C C M M C C C C IMA C C Opex x = C C O O + C C MD D D + C C MI Input variables. The main input variables considered in this work are: Distance to shore: it has been defined considering the limit of national waters (within 22 km), with the exception of some places (presence of archipelagos, islands, historical bays). it ranges between 0.6 to 93.5 km. 3. Results The main result of this work is a cost map for the Italian national waters. Based on the draft length of TLP, the map was limited to the sites were the water depth exceeds 55 m. Consequently, from a total of 1621, only 1388 are considered, as shown in the Figure below. CAPEX C T : cost of wind turbine C P : cost of floating platform C TS : cost of transmission system C M : cost of mooring system C A : cost of anchoring system C IT : cost of wind turbine installation C IP : cost of floating platform installation C ITS : cost of transmission system installation C IMA : cost of mooring and anchoring systems installation CAPEX is mainly calculated analytically and/or as a function of the installed power of the wind farm. DECEX It is calculated as a percentage of installation procedures costs, corresponds to 70%, 10%, 90% and 90% of the complete floating system, cables, substations and mooring and anchoring system installation procedures costs, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of cost parameters for floating offshore wind farms: an application to Italian waters C. Maienza, A. M. Avossa, F. Ricciardelli, D. Coiro, C. T. Georgakis [email protected] Referring to the wind farm cost the lower ranges are located in areas close to shore and to the port of operation, and in relatively shallow waters. The domain defined between the Italian coastline and the national water limit includes also: Protected areas Navigation limitations Consequently, the possible sites further decrease, becoming 1026. In the Figure below an overview of the life cycle costs of the TLP wind farm is shown, to be compared with the benefits coming from producibility. Therefore, a similar map of producibility need to be prepared, which is beyond the scope of this paper, and comparison of then two maps would allow drafting a third map, containing the distribution of the values of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). This final result is the tool to be used in the planning of possible investments installation of offshore wind farms. OPEX C O : cost of operation C MD : cost of direct maintenance C MI : cost of indirect maintenance OPEX is calculated analytically and/or as a function of the installed power of wind farm. 3,3 10,2 14,4 12,2 16,8 11,8 31,3 0 10 20 30 40 0 - 4 4 - 8 8 - 12 12 - 16 16 - 20 20 - 24 > 24 Value in % Ranges of distance to shore in km a) 33,6 36,3 18,4 6,9 3,7 0,7 0,3 0 10 20 30 40 0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 - 300 300 - 350 Value in % Ranges of distance from port in km b) 12,4 32,8 19,3 2,2 17 16,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 700 700 - 1000 > 1000 Value in % Ranges of bathymetry in m c) 49,5 40,9 8,7 0,8 0,1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 210 - 280 280 - 350 350 - 420 420 - 490 490 - 560 Value in % Ranges of TLP wind farm cost in M€ d) Distance from port: it has been considered 28 ports. The range of distance between the floating offshore wind farms and the nearest ports is between 5.9 and 321 km. Bathymetry: it ranges between 0 and 3500 m.

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Page 1: Sensitivity analysis of cost parameters for floating offshore ......floating offshore wind farm installation. Sensitivity aspects. Sensitivity analysis has been applied to TLP floating

4. ConclusionAn application of sensitivity analysis of the main cost parameters forTLP floating offshore wind farms has been presented. The total lifecycle costs of the farm were evaluated through a cost model,considering CAPEX, OPEX and DECEX.In the analysis, bathymetry constrains deriving from the minimumTLP draft, the environmental aspects, i.e. the presence of protectedareas, as well as navigation limitations were taken into account.The final result is in the form of a life cycle cost map, giving a bird’s-eye view of the variation of the costs of the farm, to be comparedwith a similar map describing the variation of producibility, beyondthe scope of this research.Comparison of the two maps allows evaluation of the distribution ofthe LCOE for a specific project, therefore giving a first idea of itsfeasibility.Therefore, the approach presented here is to be considered for usein the early stage of the decision-making process, as a tool for thepreliminary assessment of feasibility and of political evaluation.

References[1] Bjerkseter C. and Ågotnes A. 2013 Levelised Costs of Energy forOffshore Floating Wind Turbine Concepts (Norway: Norwegian Universityof Life Sciences)[2] Blanco M. I. 2009 The economics of wind energy Renew. Sust. Energ.Rev. 13 (6-7) pp 1372-1382[3] George J. 2014 WindFloat Design for Dierent Turbine Sizes (Portugal:UL University of Lisbon)[4] Maienza C., Avossa A. M., Ricciardelli F., Scherillo F. and Georgakis C.T. 2019 A comparative analysis of construction costs of onshore andshallow- and deep-water offshore wind farms XV Conf. of the Italian Assoc.for Wind Eng.: IN VENTO 2018 (Naples) vol 27 (Springer) pp 440-453[5] Statoil 2015 Hywind Scotland Pilot Park (Norway: EnvironmentalStatement)

1. IntroductionOver the last few decades, a renewed progress of theoffshore wind sector has taken place. In particular,floating wind turbines represent the next frontier inthe wind power industry.The development of this technology is stronglydependent on its economic feasibility. There followsthat the development of economic analyses is crucialto highlight the possible greater potential of floatingoffshore wind farms, and to support theirsustainability and technical value.Currently, only few studies are available on theirpossible investment cost. Therefore, a costassessment for floating offshore wind farms is largelynecessary to ascertain if this new technology iseconomically sustainable.The main objective of this work is to develop asensitivity analysis of the main cost parameters forfloating offshore wind farms. This derives from aproposed general cost model which takes intoaccount all the cost parameters. In this study, themodel is applied to the Italian national waters. Theproposed study should be helpful for future decision-making processes. Results should provide guidanceon how to preliminary assess the quality of a site forfloating offshore wind farm installation.

Sensitivity aspects. Sensitivity analysis has beenapplied to TLP floating offshore wind farm and has beendeveloped in QGIS. A farm made of 12 wind turbineswith a nominal power of 5 MW, supported by a TLPfloater and located at a distance of seven rotor diametersfrom each other, is considered. The rotor diameter is 126m. Moreover, farms are arranged in three rows of 4turbines, respectively, and each wind farm covers a totalarea of around 8 km². The layout of wind farm is shownbelow.

The calculation domain has been defined, correspondingto the space between Italian coastline and the nationalwater limit. In this domain, 1621 sites have beengenerated corresponding to possible farms positions.Subsequently, has been calculated the total cost for allsites in the reference domain, based on the actual valueof the input variables.

Histograms shows the occurrence ranges of the distance to shore,distance from port of operation, the bathymetry and the TLP windfarm costs of the sites considered in the analyses.

2. Methodology

Economic aspects. The method proposed is based on amodel for the life cycle cost assessment of floating offshorewind farms. This includes calculation of Capital cost(CAPEX), CCapex, Operation and Maintenance cost (OPEX),COpex and Decommissioning cost (DECEX), CDecex.Therefore, the life cycle cost CLC of a floating wind farm isgiven by:

CCLCCC = CCCapexx + + CCOpexx + + CCDecex

CCCapexx = CCTT + CCPP + CCTSSS + CCMM + CCAA + CCITT + CCIPP + CCITSSS + CCMMCCCCIMA

CCOpexx = CCOO + CCMDDD + CCMI

Input variables. The main input variables considered in thiswork are:

• Distance to shore: it has been defined considering the limitof national waters (within 22 km), with the exception ofsome places (presence of archipelagos, islands, historicalbays). it ranges between 0.6 to 93.5 km.

3. ResultsThe main result of this work is a cost map for the Italian nationalwaters. Based on the draft length of TLP, the map was limited to thesites were the water depth exceeds 55 m. Consequently, from a totalof 1621, only 1388 are considered, as shown in the Figure below.

CAPEX• CT: cost of wind turbine• CP: cost of floating

platform• CTS: cost of transmission

system• CM: cost of mooring

system • CA: cost of anchoring

system• CIT: cost of wind turbine

installation• CIP: cost of floating

platform installation• CITS: cost of transmission

system installation• CIMA: cost of mooring and

anchoring systems installation

CAPEX is mainly calculated analytically and/or as a function of the installed power of the wind farm.

DECEXIt is calculated as a percentage of installation procedures costs, corresponds to 70%, 10%, 90% and 90% of the complete floating system, cables, substations and mooring and anchoring system installation procedures costs, respectively.

Sensitivity analysis of cost parameters for floating offshore wind farms: an application to Italian waters

C. Maienza, A. M. Avossa, F. Ricciardelli, D. Coiro, C. T. [email protected]

Referring to the wind farm cost the lower ranges are located inareas close to shore and to the port of operation, and in relativelyshallow waters.

The domain defined between the Italian coastline and the nationalwater limit includes also:• Protected areas• Navigation limitationsConsequently, the possible sites further decrease, becoming 1026.

In the Figure below an overview of the life cycle costs of the TLPwind farm is shown, to be compared with the benefits coming fromproducibility. Therefore, a similar map of producibility need to beprepared, which is beyond the scope of this paper, and comparisonof then two maps would allow drafting a third map, containing thedistribution of the values of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).This final result is the tool to be used in the planning of possibleinvestments installation of offshore wind farms.

OPEX• CO: cost of operation • CMD: cost of direct

maintenance• CMI: cost of indirect

maintenance OPEX is calculated analytically and/or as a function of the installed power of wind farm.

3,310,2

14,4 12,216,8

11,8

31,3

0

10

20

30

40

0 - 4

4 - 8

8 - 12

12 -

16

16 -

20

20 -

24 > 24

Valu

e in

%

Ranges of distance to shore in kma)

33,6 36,3

18,4

6,9 3,7 0,7 0,30

10203040

0 - 50

50 -

100

100 -

150

150 -

200

200 -

250

250 -

300

300 -

350

Valu

e in

%

Ranges of distance from port in kmb)

12,4

32,8

19,3

2,2

17 16,4

010203040

50 -

100

100 -

200

200 -

400

400 -

700

700 -

1000

> 100

0

Valu

e in

%

Ranges of bathymetry in mc)

49,540,9

8,70,8 0,1

0102030405060

210 -

280

280 -

350

350 -

420

420 -

490

490 -

560

Valu

e in

%

Ranges of TLP wind farm cost in M€d)

Distance from port: it has been considered 28 ports. Therange of distance between the floating offshore wind farmsand the nearest ports is between 5.9 and 321 km.

Bathymetry: it ranges between 0 and 3500 m.