sepal research larry & stephanie kraft research department sepal brazil may 2003 i, wisdom,...
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Sepal Research
Larry & Stephanie KraftResearch Department
Sepal Brazil
May 2003
I, wisdom, dwell together with prudence; I possess knowledge and discretion.
- Proverbs 8:12
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“The most important thing is to keepthe most important thing
in the place of most importance.”- ancient German proverb
We believe that in order to maintainthe focus of our ministry on what ismost important (in our work towardcompleting the Great Commission)we need:
GOOD INFORMATION:RESEARCH
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Why we emphasize research:
It gives us credibility in the eyes of the church
It helps us make wise decisions
It encourages the wise use of our resources
It aids us in the implementation of well-informed
and focused strategies
It provides information necessary for the
motivation, training and mobilization
of the church to reach the entire country
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A Bíblical Model:
Then I said to them, “You see the trouble we are in: Jerusalem lies in ruins, and its gates have been burned with fire. Come, let us rebuild the wall of Jerusalem, and we will no longer be in disgrace.” I also told them about the gracious hand of my God upon me and what the king had said to me.
They replied, “Let us start rebuilding.” So they began this good work.
Nehemiah 2:17-18
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Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless,and knowledge without integrity is dangerous
and a cause for concern
-Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)
Information can be used by the enemy when it is:
• Incomplete• Incorrect• Poorly interpreted
We can use data to say anything we want.The key question is, “What does God want tosay to His church through the informationat hand?”
Example: Exaggerations areused by the enemy to take away the church’s motivationfor the evangelistic task.
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The Purpose of Research in Sepal:
Perceive what the Holy Spirit is doing and where He is leading the Church, so that we can cooperate with Him and be better used by God in His harvest.
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Top Priority: Assist the Sepal Team
Understand the church and its context Discover ministry areas in which the Brazilian Church most needs assistance in order to be able to grow and multiply and reach the entire country Seek to discern the right time for the right ministry Discover effective ministry methods and models Provide information for the evaluation of ministry objectives and for decision making regarding the opening and closing of fields and areas of ministry
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Researching the needs of church Leaders:
Surveys at pastors’ conferences
Group consultation with pastors
Interviews with pastors and church leaders
Surveys in magazines and leadership journals
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Subjects of most interest in the purchase of books
others
biographies
devotionals
missions
Bible commentaries
counseling
family
theology
ministry tools
Researching the Evangelical Leadership
Survey of readers of Leadership Jornal 2001
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Factors which affect the decision to participate in training events
sponsoringorganization
timeframe
date
location
price
speaker
theme
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Most sought-after themes or subjectsfamily
discipleshipchurch growth/planting
counselingmissions
theological questionsinner healingBible studies
spiritual warfareevangelism
sermonssmall groups
youth workprayer ministry
controversial subjectsothers
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Contextual Research
Religious Ethno-linguistic Sociological Political Economic Geographic/Demographic Historical Cultural
This type of research focuses on factorswhich affect the reaching of the country
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0
20
40
60
80
100
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
po
pu
latio
n
illiteracyincome < 1 min. wage
running watergarbage collection
electricityProtestants
Brazil w/o the NortheastThe Northeast
The Northeast of Brazilsociological/religious comparison
Sources: Veja Magazine 3/27/96, pp. 36-37 & Sepal Research Department 1998
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External Research:
Evaluate the potential of the church to disciple the nation Highlight needs Expand the leaders’ vision Seek out change agents Identify effective ministry models Attempt to discern God’s timing for mobilizing the church
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NO-502
w/o churches (36157 )
with churches (4830 )
BRAZIL – North Regionaprox. 40.000 communities
Source: Brasil 2010 Research in North Region & IBGEAnalysis & Graph: Sepal / Brasil 2010 – 07/99 <[email protected]>
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% of Evangelicals
less than 2 2 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 more than 30
BRAZILMicroregions
Percentage of evangelicalsin each microregionaccording to the 1991 censusSource: IBGE 1991 census
Graphic analysis - SEPAL -1999<[email protected]>
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Researching the Church: Where are the churches? How many churches are there? Who is being reached? How is the church growing? Where is the church growing or not and why? What is the future potential for church growth? What is the receptivity of the different ethnic groups and geographic regions? How is the church progressing as a as a missionary sending force?
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
perc
enta
ge
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 year
Church XYZ(annual growth rate in members)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
mem
bers
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 year
past
AAGR 30%
AAGR 20%
AAGR 10%
(membership projections)Church XYZ
ChurchGrowth
Consultations
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• Church growth principles
• The health of local churches
• The local church in missions
Teaching and evaluation on:
Our focus has moved away from these areas in recent years due to other groups beginning to minister in these areas.
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A survey of all of the streets of the neighborhood during 1998 and 1999 located 75 Protestant churches of all denominations. The population to church ratio was one church for every 2,533 people.
Sepal - Depto. de PesquisasFebruary 2000(11)5523-2544
The Churchesof Ipiranga
Church Multiplication:
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Project
Marília 2002
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PROJECT MARÍLIA 2002Summary of Research Results
• Population of Marília: 187.804
• Number of Protestant churches: 134
• Average attendance: 106 people per church
• Percentage of the population in church on Sunday: 7,5%
• Population to church ratio: 1402(one geographic region had 5253 inhabitants per church)
• Churches with 100 or less in attendance: 71%
• Churches with more than 250 in attendance: 7%
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Religious Institutions of Marília
Protestant Churches (55%)
Catholic Churches (19%)
Spiritist centers oresoteric religions (11%)
Others (15%)
(percentage of total meeting places)
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - info @brasil2010.org / [email protected]
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ProjetoMarília 2002
As Igrejasde Marília
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - [email protected] / [email protected]
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Marília 2002Population per church in each geographic region
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - info @brasil2010.org / [email protected] region
Inh
abit
ants
per
lo
cal
chu
rch
869
5253
2271
11591360
714
17761639
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Centro Leste 1 Leste 2 Norte 1 Norte 2 Oeste 1 Oeste 2 Sul 1 Sul 2
No
Ch
urc
he
s
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l
Nº. deHabitantes
por Igreja Local
Marília - SP
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 - março de 2002 - (11) 5523-2544 - [email protected]
Oeste 1
Sul 1
Norte 2
Norte 1
Centro Leste 2
Sul 2
Leste 1
Oeste 2
0 - 750751 - 10001001 - 20002001 - 6000Sem Igreja
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - [email protected] / [email protected]
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Obs.: porcentagem da populaçãoresidente em cada região geográfica dacidade presente nas igrejas evangélicasno culto principal da semana
Marília 2002percentage of the population attending church
geographic region
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - info @brasil2010.org / [email protected]
1,3%
4,6%5,2%
0,0%
7,1% 6,9%
4,6% 4,2%
28,8%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
Centro Leste 1 Leste 2 Norte 1 Norte 2 Oeste 1 Oeste 2 Sul 1 Sul 2
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SulOeste_1Norte_2Centr oNorte_1Leste_2Leste_1
l_2Oet _2
l_1Oeste _1Norte _2Centr oNorte _1Leste _2Leste _1
Sulste
l
lttl
Oe ste _1Centro Leste _2
Su l_2
Sul_1
Oeste_1
Norte_2
Centro
Norte_1
Leste_2
Leste_1
Sul_2Oeste_2
Projeto Marília 2002 -- Sepal / Projeto Brasil2010 / Igreja Evangélica das Nações - março de 2002 - [email protected] / [email protected]
Porcentagemdos habitantes presentes nas
igrejas
Marília - SP
Sem Ig rejameno s qu e 33 - 55 - 10mais qu e 10
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5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
Tota
l Pro
testa
nts
1980 1982
1984 1986
1988 1990
1992 1994
1996 1998
2000 2002
2004 2006
2008 2010
1980-1991 1992-2000 2001-2010 (projection)
PROTESTANTS IN BRAZIL
Seaor Amostra
Sepal Depto. de Pesquisas - 1993de Domicilios - 1988
e Censo de 1980 Source: IBGE--2000, 1991 and 1908 Census Sepal 2003 - <[email protected]>
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Protestants / State less than 10 %
10 to 15 %
15 to 20 %
more than 20 %Sepal 2003 - (11)5523-2544<[email protected]>
BRAZIL 2002
PercentProtestantin each state
Sourece: IBGE--2000 & 1991 Census figures year 2002 - projection
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0
5
10
15
20
25
% o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
iden
tifyi
ng
them
selv
es a
s P
rote
stan
t
1980 1991 2002Centralwest North Southeast South Northeast Brazil total
Percent Protestant by Geographical Region1980 -- 2002
Brazil
Sepal Research 2002 <[email protected]> Source: IBGE – Demographic Census
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0
12
345
678
9
aver
age
annu
algr
owth
rat
e (%
)
Pop. 1980-91 Prot. 1980-1991 Pop. 1991-2000 Prot. 1991-2000
Centralwest North Southeast South Northeast Brazil total
Protestant Growth Rate by Region1980 -- 2000
Brazil
Sepal Research 2002 <[email protected]> Source: IBGE – Demographic Census
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www.brasil2010.org
www.sepal.org.br
www.infobrasil.org
www.acmi.org.br
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It is not good to have zeal without
knowledge, nor to be hasty and miss the way.
- Proverbs 19:2